Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.

An abstract machine for restricted and-parallel execution of logic programs

Although the sequential execution speed of logic programs has been greatly improved by the concepts introduced in the Warren Abstract Machine (WAM), parallel execution represents the only way to increase this speed beyond the natural limits of sequential systems. However, most proposed parallel logic programming execution models lack the performance optimizations and storage efficiency of sequential systems. This paper presents a parallel abstract machine which is an extension of the WAM and is thus capable of supporting ANDParallelism without giving up the optimizations present in sequential implementations. A suitable instruction set, which can be used as a target by a variety of logic programming languages, is also included. Special instructions are provided to support a generalized version of "Restricted AND-Parallelism" (RAP), a technique which reduces the overhead traditionally associated with the run-time management of variable binding conflicts to a series of simple run-time checks, which select one out of a series of compiled execution graphs.

Estructura espacial y dinámica del bosque montano del sur del Ecuador. Interacciones bióticas y limitaciones abióticas

Muchos estudios han descrito la composición y diversidad de los bosques montanos tropicales, pero los patrones espaciales y las diferentes tipos de relaciones de estos, entre especies o entre grupos funcionales ha sido poco documentada. El presente trabajo se realizó en tres parcelas completamente censadas del bosque de la Estación Biológica “Chamusquin” (Zamora Chinchipe, Ecuador), y se plantea como objetivo principal conocer la estructura espacial y dinámica del bosque montano tropical del sur del Ecuador, así como las interacciones bióticas y limitaciones abióticas que influyen en esta dinámica, para ello se planteó cuatro objetivos de estudio que son: conocer los patrones espaciales de los gremios ecológicos dentro de la zona de estudio; conocer la influencia de la dependencia negativa de la densidad sobre dos especies de helechos arborescentes (Cyatheaceae); conocer si existen especies o grupos ecológicos acumuladoras o repulsoras de diversidad en el área de estudio; y conocer cómo influyen la diversidad filogenética y la densidad del vecindario en la incidencia de herbivoría y parasitismo sobre las fases iniciales del establecimiento forestal (brinzales) así como en la supervivencia de los mismos Como paso previo para el análisis del resto de objetivos, dentro de cada parcela se marcaron todos los individuos con DAP ≥5 cm y se tomaron sus coordenadas (X, Y). Además se tomaron datos de variables superficiales y muestras del suelo. Las especies encontradas se clasificaron de acuerdo a sus características biológicas, asignándolas a cada uno de los cuatro gremios forestales usualmente distinguidos en los bosques tropicales: tolerantes a la sombra (TS), tolerantes parciales a la sombra (TPS), pioneras de vida larga (PVL) y pioneras de vida corta (PVC). Para el estudio del primer objetivo tas se emplearon funciones K de Ripley inhomogéneas, ajustando la heterogeneidad en base a la variación espacial de las variables ambientales registradas . Los resultados demostraron que tanto la frecuencia relativa como el patrón espacial de las diferentes estrategias funcionales varían a lo largo de la sucesión y que éste además está influido por la variación ambiental. En adición, tanto el patrón espacial como la respuesta a la variación ambiental de los diferentes gremios es distinta entre adultos y juveniles. Todo ello sugiere que el ensamblaje de la diversidad en los bosque montanos andinos está controlado por procesos deterministas más que por procesos neutrales. Para responder el segundo objetivo se estudiaron los efectos de la dependencia negativa de la densidad (DND) y la heterogeneidad ambiental en las poblaciones de dos especies de helechos arborescentes abundantes, Cyathea caracasana y Alsophila engelii, y cómo estos efectos cambian a través de un gradiente sucesional. Los patrones de especies albergan información sobre procesos tales como la competencia que puede ser revelado fácilmente utilizando técnicas de análisis de patrones punto. Sin embargo, su detección puede ser difícil debido a los efectos de factores de confusión heterogeneidad del hábitat. Aquí, empleamos funciones K y funciones de correlación de par homogéneas y no homogéneas para cuantificar el cambio en el patrón espacial de diferentes clases de tamaño con un diseño de casos-controles para estudiar las asociaciones entre helechos arborescentes jóvenes y adultos. Usando estimaciones espaciales de la biomasa de los cuatro tipos de gremios ecológicos (PVC, PVL, TPS, TS) como covariables, hemos ajustado modelos de Poisson heterogéneos a los patrones de puntos de de los helechos juveniles y los adultos y hemos explorado además la existencia de dependencia del hábitat en estos patrones. Nuestro estudio reveló efectos de la DND para C. caracasana y un fuerte filtrado ambiental que subyace al patrón de A. engelii. Encontramos también que las poblaciones de adultos y juveniles de ambas especies respondieron de manera diferente a la heterogeneidad del hábitat y en la mayoría de los casos esta heterogeneidad se asoció con la distribución espacial de la biomasa de los cuatro tipos de gremios. Estos resultados muestran la eficacia de controlar los efectos de la heterogeneidad ambiental para evitar su confusión con los patrones derivados de interacciones biológicas cuando se estudia la DND y demuestran la utilidad de los mapas de covariables derivados de comunidades biológicas como resumen de la heterogeneidad ambiental. Para nuestro tercer objetivo nos centramos en explorar cómo influyen las especies más abundantes en la organización espacial de la diversidad a lo largo de un gradiente sucesional en el bosque montano del sur del Ecuador. Para ello utilizamos la función ISAR (Individual Species Area Relationship). Encontramos que la frecuencia de especies neutras, repulsoras y acumuladoras de diversidad taxonómica varía dependiendo del grado de sucesión. Además se comprobó que la mayoría de los gremios forestales se comportó de forma neutral, pero la proporción de acumuladores, aumentó al avanzar la sucesión hacia estados más maduros, lo que indica el establecimiento de fuertes procesos competitivos a medida que avanza la sucesión y la mayor importancia del papel de las especies individuales en dichos estados. Finalmente, examinamos el efecto de la vecindad taxonómica y filogenética, así como la estrategia de vida, sobre la incidencia de la herbivoría y el parasitismo en las poblaciones de brinzales de tres fragmentos forestales en una secuencia sucesional del bosque montano húmedo. Evaluamos además los efectos de herbivoría, parasitismo, estrategia de vida y diferentes indicadores de la vecindad sobre la supervivencia de los brinzales. Por último contrastamos la posible existencia de una tendencia compensatoria de la comunidad (CCT) a nivel de fragmento forestal. Nuestros análisis no consiguieron detectar una CCT pero si pusieron de manifiesto la existencia de efectos locales de dependencia negativa de la densidad. Por ejemplo, la presencia de herbivoría y parasitismo sobre los brinzales se relacionó significativamente con una menor supervivencia de estos. Por otro lado, indicadores del efecto de la vecindad como la densidad de brinzales del mismo género y el área basal de árboles vecinos del mismo género incrementaron la prevalencia de la herbivoría o el parasitismo en los brinzales. El incremento de la incidencia de la herbivoría o el parasitismo no está exclusivamente ligado a tener una vecindad taxonómicamente idéntica (vecinos de la misma especie) sino que categorías taxonómicas más laxas como el "género" o simplemente relaciones de semejanza filogenética son capaces de predecir los efectos negativos de la vecindad. Los efectos detectados variaron en los diferentes grupos funcionales distinguidos. Los resultados que hemos obtenido en este trabajo parecen indicar que el funcionamiento de las comunidades de brinzales del bosque montano tropical no difiere mucho del reportado para comunidades de plántulas en otros bosques tropicales y cumple las predicciones de la hipótesis de Janzen y Connell, aunque matizadas por la mayor resistencia de los brinzales al efecto de herbivoría y parasitismo. ABSTRACT Many studies have described the composition and diversity of tropical montane forests, but the different spatial patterns and types of relationships between species or between functional groups has been poorly documented. This work was made in three completely surveyed forest plots at Biological Station "Chamusquin" (Zamora Chinchipe, Ecuador). Our main objective was to know the spatial structure and dynamics of the tropical montane forest in southern Ecuador, as well as the biotic interactions and abiotic constraints affecting this dynamic. More specifically, we aimed to understand the spatial patterns of ecological guilds; to explore the influence of negative density dependence on two species of tree ferns (Cyatheaceae); to determine whether some species or ecological groups structure spatially plant diversity in these forests; and to test the effects of biological neighborhood on the incidence of herbivory and parasitism and on the survival of saplings. We mapped within each plot all trees with DBH ≥5 cm. Besides, surface data variables and soil samples they were taken. The species found were classified according to their biological characteristics in four forest guilds: shade-tolerant (ST), partial shade tolerant (PST), long-lived pioneer (LLP) and short-lived pioneer (SLP). To analyze the spatial patterns of the ecological guilds, we employed the inhomogeneous version of Ripley's K-function and adjusted heterogeneity surfaces based on the spatial variation of the measured environmental variables. The results showed that both the relative frequency of each functional guild as well as their spatial pattern varied throughout succession and that the spatial pattern is explained by environmental variation. In addition, both spatial pattern and the response to spatial variation of each guild varied throughout ontogeny. All in all suggest that diversity assembly in the studied forests is ruled by deterministic instead of neutral processes. We also addressed the negative effects of density dependence (NDD) and environmental heterogeneity in populations of two species of abundant tree ferns, Cyathea caracasana and Alsophila engelii, and how these effects change across a successional gradient.. Here, we used homogeneous and inhomogeneous K and pair-correlation functions to quantify the change in the spatial pattern of different size classes with a case-control design to study associations between young and adult tree ferns. Using spatial estimates of the biomass of the four types of ecological guilds (SLP, LLP, PST, ST) as co-variables, we fitted heterogeneous Poisson models to juvenile and adult tree fern point patterns and explored the existence of habitat dependence. Our study revealed NDD effects for C. caracasana and strong environmental filtering underlying the pattern of A. engelii. We found that adult and juvenile populations of both species responded differently to habitat heterogeneity and in most cases this heterogeneity was associated with the spatial distribution of biomass of the four functional tree types. These findings show the effectiveness of factoring out environmental heterogeneity to avoid confounding factors when studying NDD and demonstrate the usefulness of covariate maps derived from mapped communities. For our third objective we focused on exploring how the most abundant species influence the spatial organization of tree diversity in these forests. For this, we used the individual species-area relationship function (ISAR). We found that the proportion of accumulator, repeller and neutral species, varied depending on the degree of succession. We found also that most guilds behaved neutrally but the proportion of accumulator guilds increased as succession advanced to more mature stages. This point, to the existence of strong competitive effects mediated by individual species in these mature forests. Finally, we examined the effects of life strategies and taxonomic and phylogenetic neighborhood on the incidence of herbivory and parasitism in the communities of saplings in the same forest fragments. We evaluated also the effects of life strategies, herbivory, parasitism and some indicators of neighborhood on sapling survival. Finally we tested for the existences of a compensatory community trend at plot scale. We did not found a CCT but we found proof of local NND effects. For instance, the prevalence of herbivory and parasitism were related to lower sapling survival. On the other hand the density of con-generic saplings and the basal area of neighbor con-generic trees were related to a higher prevalence of herbivory or parasitism in the saplings. We demonstrated that the increase in the prevalence of herbivory or parasitism it s not exclusive of a conspecific neighborhood but instead larger taxonomic categories such as "genus" or simple phylogenetic relationships are also able to predict NND effects. The NND effects varied among functional guilds. Our results show that the dynamic of sapling communities in Ecuadorian montane forests is similar to seedling dynamics in other tropical forest and follows the predictions of Janzen-Connell hypothesis, although softened by the strong resilience of saplings in comparison to seedlings.

Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Digital line graphs from 1:2,000,000-scale maps /

"US GeoData"--Cover.

Abstract of results published on a methodical series of resistance experiments on ship models,

Mode of access: Internet.

The development of retinotectal maps: A review of models based on molecular gradients

Information about the world is often represented in the brain in the form of topographic maps. A paradigm example is the topographic representation of the visual world in the optic tectum/superior colliculus. This map initially forms during neural development using activity-independent molecular cues, most notably some type of chemospecific matching between molecular gradients in the retina and corresponding gradients in the tectum/superior colliculus. Exactly how this process might work has been studied both experimentally and theoretically for several decades. This review discusses the experimental data briefly, and then in more detail the theoretical models proposed. The principal conclusions are that (1) theoretical models have helped clarify several important ideas in the field, (2) earlier models were often more sophisticated than more recent models, and (3) substantial revisions to current modelling approaches are probably required to account for more than isolated subsets of the experimental data.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk assessment of groundwater quality utilizing GIS technology and coupled groundwater models

The thesis presents a two-dimensional Risk Assessment Method (RAM) where the assessment of risk to the groundwater resources incorporates both the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The approach emphasizes the need for a greater dependency on the potential pollution sources, rather than the traditional approach where assessment is based mainly on the intrinsic geo-hydrologic parameters. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby random pollution events were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring events or a priori potential probability distribution. Integrated mathematical models then simulate contaminant concentrations at the predefined monitoring points within the aquifer. The spatial and temporal distributions of the concentrations were calculated from repeated realisations, and the number of times when a user defined concentration magnitude was exceeded is quantified as a risk. The method was setup by integrating MODFLOW-2000, MT3DMS and a FORTRAN coded risk model, and automated, using a DOS batch processing file. GIS software was employed in producing the input files and for the presentation of the results. The functionalities of the method, as well as its sensitivities to the model grid sizes, contaminant loading rates, length of stress periods, and the historical frequencies of occurrence of pollution events were evaluated using hypothetical scenarios and a case study. Chloride-related pollution sources were compiled and used as indicative potential contaminant sources for the case study. At any active model cell, if a random generated number is less than the probability of pollution occurrence, then the risk model will generate synthetic contaminant source term as an input into the transport model. The results of the applications of the method are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatial maps. Varying the model grid sizes indicates no significant effects on the simulated groundwater head. The simulated frequency of daily occurrence of pollution incidents is also independent of the model dimensions. However, the simulated total contaminant mass generated within the aquifer, and the associated volumetric numerical error appear to increase with the increasing grid sizes. Also, the migration of contaminant plume advances faster with the coarse grid sizes as compared to the finer grid sizes. The number of daily contaminant source terms generated and consequently the total mass of contaminant within the aquifer increases in a non linear proportion to the increasing frequency of occurrence of pollution events. The risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated, and quantitatively presented as risk maps. This capability to combine the risk to a groundwater feature from numerous potential sources of pollution proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary risk and vulnerability methods.

Dynamics and topographic organization of recursive self-organizing maps

Recently there has been an outburst of interest in extending topographic maps of vectorial data to more general data structures, such as sequences or trees. However, there is no general consensus as to how best to process sequences using topographicmaps, and this topic remains an active focus of neurocomputational research. The representational capabilities and internal representations of the models are not well understood. Here, we rigorously analyze a generalization of the self-organizingmap (SOM) for processing sequential data, recursive SOM (RecSOM) (Voegtlin, 2002), as a nonautonomous dynamical system consisting of a set of fixed input maps. We argue that contractive fixed-input maps are likely to produce Markovian organizations of receptive fields on the RecSOM map. We derive bounds on parameter β (weighting the importance of importing past information when processing sequences) under which contractiveness of the fixed-input maps is guaranteed. Some generalizations of SOM contain a dynamic module responsible for processing temporal contexts as an integral part of the model. We show that Markovian topographic maps of sequential data can be produced using a simple fixed (nonadaptable) dynamic module externally feeding a standard topographic model designed to process static vectorial data of fixed dimensionality (e.g., SOM). However, by allowing trainable feedback connections, one can obtain Markovian maps with superior memory depth and topography preservation. We elaborate on the importance of non-Markovian organizations in topographic maps of sequential data. © 2006 Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Semi-supervised learning of statistical models for natural language understanding

Natural language understanding is to specify a computational model that maps sentences to their semantic mean representation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to train the statistical models without using expensive fully annotated data. In particular, the input of our framework is a set of sentences labeled with abstract semantic annotations. These annotations encode the underlying embedded semantic structural relations without explicit word/semantic tag alignment. The proposed framework can automatically induce derivation rules that map sentences to their semantic meaning representations. The learning framework is applied on two statistical models, the conditional random fields (CRFs) and the hidden Markov support vector machines (HM-SVMs). Our experimental results on the DARPA communicator data show that both CRFs and HM-SVMs outperform the baseline approach, previously proposed hidden vector state (HVS) model which is also trained on abstract semantic annotations. In addition, the proposed framework shows superior performance than two other baseline approaches, a hybrid framework combining HVS and HM-SVMs and discriminative training of HVS, with a relative error reduction rate of about 25% and 15% being achieved in F-measure.

Coupled symplectic maps as models for subdiffusive processes in disordered Hamiltonian lattices

Acknowledgements One of us (T. B.) acknowledges many interesting discussions on coupled maps with Professor C. Tsallis. We are also grateful to the anonymous referees for their constructive feedback that helped us improve the manuscript and to the HPCS Laboratory of the TEI of Western Greece for providing the computer facilities where all our simulations were performed. C. G. A. was partially supported by the “EPSRC EP/I032606/1” grant of the University of Aberdeen. This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program “Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: THALES - Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

Coupled symplectic maps as models for subdiffusive processes in disordered Hamiltonian lattices

Acknowledgements One of us (T. B.) acknowledges many interesting discussions on coupled maps with Professor C. Tsallis. We are also grateful to the anonymous referees for their constructive feedback that helped us improve the manuscript and to the HPCS Laboratory of the TEI of Western Greece for providing the computer facilities where all our simulations were performed. C. G. A. was partially supported by the “EPSRC EP/I032606/1” grant of the University of Aberdeen. This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund - ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program “Education and Lifelong Learning” of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: THALES - Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.