Improving the evaluation of hydrological multi-model forecast performance in the Upper Danube Catchment

Medium range flood forecasting activities, driven by various meteorological forecasts ranging from high resolution deterministic forecasts to low spatial resolution ensemble prediction systems, share a major challenge in the appropriateness and design of performance measures. In this paper possible limitations of some traditional hydrological and meteorological prediction quality and verification measures are identified. Some simple modifications are applied in order to circumvent the problem of the autocorrelation dominating river discharge time-series and in order to create a benchmark model enabling the decision makers to evaluate the forecast quality and the model quality. Although the performance period is quite short the advantage of a simple cost-loss function as a measure of forecast quality can be demonstrated.

Evaluation of methods of detecting cell reactive oxygen species production for drug screening and cell cycle studies

Intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) production is essential to normal cell function. However, excessive ROS production causes oxidative damage and cell death. Many pharmacological compounds exert their effects on cell cycle progression by changing intracellular redox state and in many cases cause oxidative damage leading to drug cytotoxicity. Appropriate measurement of intracellular ROS levels during cell cycle progression is therefore crucial in understanding redox-regulation of cell function and drug toxicity and for the development of new drugs. However, due to the extremely short half-life of ROS, measuring the changes in intracellular ROS levels during a particular phase of cell cycle for drug intervention can be challenging. In this article, we have provided updated information on the rationale, the applications, the advantages and limitations of common methods for screening drug effects on intracellular ROS production linked to cell cycle study. Our aim is to facilitate biomedical scientists and researchers in the pharmaceutical industry in choosing or developing specific experimental regimens to suit their research needs.

Estimação de regressões aditivas via backfitting e integração marginal: performance em pequenas amostras

Nesta dissertação realizou-se um experimento de Monte Carlo para re- velar algumas características das distribuições em amostras finitas dos estimadores Backfitting (B) e de Integração Marginal(MI) para uma regressão aditiva bivariada. Está-se particularmente interessado em fornecer alguma evidência de como os diferentes métodos de seleção da janela hn, tais co- mo os métodos plug-in, impactam as propriedades em pequenas amostras dos estimadores. Está-se interessado, também, em fornecer evidência do comportamento de diferentes estimadores de hn relativamente a seqüência ótima de hn que minimiza uma função perda escolhida. O impacto de ignorar a dependência entre os regressores na estimação da janela é tam- bém investigado. Esta é uma prática comum e deve ter impacto sobre o desempenho dos estimadores. Além disso, não há nenhuma rotina atual- mente disponível nos pacotes estatísticos/econométricos para a estimação de regressões aditivas via os métodos de Backfitting e Integração Marginal. É um dos objetivos a criação de rotinas em Gauss para a implementação prática destes estimadores. Por fim, diferentemente do que ocorre atual- mente, quando a utilização dos estimadores-B e MI é feita de maneira completamente ad-hoc, há o objetivo de fornecer a usuários informação que permita uma escolha mais objetiva de qual estimador usar quando se está trabalhando com uma amostra finita.

Gestão estratégica de riscos de um ativo de produção de petróleo: uma abordagem quantitativa

O objetivo dessa dissertação é estabelecer um modelo quantitativo de gestão de riscos estratégicos de um ativo de produção de petróleo, notadamente o valor em risco do seu fluxo de caixa e de sua rentabilidade. Para tanto, foi utilizado um modelo de fluxo de caixa onde a receita operacional foi definida como variável estocástica. A receita operacional foi estimada a partir de uma função de perdas que descreve o volume de produção de petróleo, e de uma trajetória de preços definida por um modelo geométrico browniano sem reversão a média e com volatilidade descrita por um processo GARCH. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que o modelo proposto é capaz de fornecer informações importantes para a gestão de riscos de ativos de produção de petróleo ao passo que permite a quantificação de diferentes fatores de risco que afetam a rentabilidade das operações. Por fim, o modelo aqui proposto pode ser estendido para a avaliação do risco financeiro e operacional de um conjunto de ativos de petróleo, considerando sua estrutura de dependência e a existência de restrições de recursos financeiros, físicos e humanos.

Microfounded forecasting

Our focus is on information in expectation surveys that can now be built on thousands (or millions) of respondents on an almost continuous-time basis (big data) and in continuous macroeconomic surveys with a limited number of respondents. We show that, under standard microeconomic and econometric techniques, survey forecasts are an affine function of the conditional expectation of the target variable. This is true whether or not the survey respondent knows the data-generating process (DGP) of the target variable or the econometrician knows the respondents individual loss function. If the econometrician has a mean-squared-error risk function, we show that asymptotically efficient forecasts of the target variable can be built using Hansens (Econometrica, 1982) generalized method of moments in a panel-data context, when N and T diverge or when T diverges with N xed. Sequential asymptotic results are obtained using Phillips and Moon s (Econometrica, 1999) framework. Possible extensions are also discussed.

Redução da morbi-mortalidade na síndrome de hellp completa com o uso de altas doses de dexametasona

Objective: To determine the clinical maternal and neonatal outcomes in HELLP syndrome patients treated with dexamethasone who either developed renal injury or renal insufficiency and to identify predictive values of urea and creatinine for the identification of subjects with HELLP syndrome at risk of developing renal insufficiency. Methods: Non-radomized intervention study of dexamethasone use in HELLP syndrome. A total of 62 patients were enrolled at Maternidade Escola Januário Cicco (MEJC). Patients received a total of 30 mg of dexamethasone IV, in three doses of 10 mg every 12 hours. A clinical and laboratory follow up were performed at 24, 48 and 72 hours. Patients were followed up to 6 months after delivery. Patients were grouped in accordance to renal function, i.e, normal and some type of renal lesion. Renal lesion was considered when creatinine was equal or greater than 1.3 mg/dl and diuresis less than 100 ml in 4 hours period and renal insufficiency was defined when dialysis was needed. Results: A total of 1230 patients with preeclampsia were admitted at MEJC. Of those 62 (5%) developed HELLP syndrome. There was no statistical difference in the groups with renal involvement or normal renal function with respect to the demographics, type of anesthesia used and delivery, and weight of the newborn. An improvement in the AST, ALT, LDH, haptoglobine, antithrombine, fibrinogenen and platelets was observed within 72 hours after dexamethosone use. There was a significant increase in the diuresis within the interval of 6 hours before the delivery and 24 hours after it. Of the 62 patients, 46 (74. 2%) had normal renal function and 16 (25.8%) evolved with renal lesion, with 5 (8.1%) needing dialysis. These 5 patients who received dialysis recovered the xi renal function. The delay in administering dexamethasone increased in 4.6% the risk of development of renal insufficiency. Patients with renal insufficiency had received significantly more blood products than subjects without renal lesion (p=0.03). Diuresis, leukocytes, uric acid, urea, creatinine were significantly different between the groups with normal renal function, renal lesion and renal insufficiency. The levels of creatinine 1.2mg/dl and uric acid 51mg/dl, at admission are predictive of subjects who will evolve with renal lesion (p<0.001). Maternal mortality was 3.2%. None of the subjects with renal insufficiency evolved with chronic renal disease. Conclusions: Dexamethasone in patients with HELLP syndrome seems to reduce significantly the hepatic microthrombosis and normalize hemostasis as seen by improvement of liver function. Renal injury can be considered, in HELLP syndrome, when creatinine levels are greater than 1.3 mg/dl and diuresis less than 100 ml/h in interval of 4 hours. The level of creatinine greater than 1.2 mg/dl and urea greater than 51mg/dl are predictive of subjects with HELLP syndrome who will develop renal injury. Patients who receive more red cell packs develop renal insufficiency. Finally, the delay in administering dexamethasone increases the risk of developing renal insufficiency

Cálculos AB initio de propriedades estruturais, eletrônicas e ópticas de colmpostos CaXo3 (X=Si, Ge, Sn)

In this work we present a study of structural, electronic and optical properties, at ambient conditions, of CaSiO3, CaGeO3 and CaSnO3 crystals, all of them a member of Ca-perovskite class. To each one, we have performed density functional theory ab initio calculations within LDA and GGA approximations of the structural parameters, geometry optimization, unit cell volume, density, angles and interatomic length, band structure, carriers effective masses, total and partial density of states, dielectric function, refractive index, optical absorption, reflectivity, optical conductivity and loss function. A result comparative procedure was done between LDA and GGA calculations, a exception to CaSiO3 where only LDA calculation was performed, due high computational cost that its low symmetry crystalline structure imposed. The Ca-perovskite bibliography have shown the absence of electronic structure calculations about this materials, justifying the present work

Efeitos da Histerectomia Total Abdominal sobre o Fluxo Sangüíneo Ovariano

Objetivo: avaliar os efeitos da histerectomia total abdominal (HTA) sobre o fluxo sangüíneo ovariano, em mulheres no menacme, por meio da dopplervelocimetria e ultra-sonografia transvaginal. Métodos: estudo prospectivo no qual foram incluídas 61 mulheres, com idade igual ou inferior a 40 anos. As pacientes foram divididas em dois grupos: G1, com 31 pacientes submetidas à HTA, e G2, com 30 mulheres normais não submetidas à cirurgia. Somente foram incluídas pacientes eumenorréicas, ovulatórias, não-obesas ou fumantes, sem cirurgias ou doenças ovarianas prévias. Avaliou-se o fluxo sangüíneo das artérias ovarianas, inicialmente e aos 6 e 12 meses, pelo índice de pulsatilidade (IP) na dopplervelocimetria, e o volume ovariano pela ultra-sonografia transvaginal (US). Para análise estatística empregou-se teste t pareado, análise de perfil, teste de Friedman e teste de Mann-Whitney. Resultados: na comparação estatística inicial os grupos foram homogêneos quanto às características epidemiológicas e quanto aos demais parâmetros avaliados neste estudo. Nas pacientes submetidas à histerectomia, observaram-se aos 6 e 12 meses aumento do volume ovariano ao US e diminuição do IP avaliado pela dopplervelocimetria (p<0,05), quando confrontadas ao controle. Aos 12 meses, em 8 das 31 pacientes pós-HTA (25,5%) verificou-se ocorrência de cistos ovarianos de aspecto benigno. No grupo controle não houve alteração de nenhum desses parâmetros. Conclusão: a redução do IP na dopplervelocimetria das artérias ovarianas sugere aumento do fluxo sangüíneo ovariano pós-histerectomia total abdominal em mulheres no menacme.

The role of salt abuse on risk for hypercalciuria

Background: Elevated sodium excretion in urine resulting from excessive sodium intake can lead to hypercalciuria and contribute to the formation of urinary stones. The aim of this study was to evaluate salt intake in patients with urinary lithiasis and idiopathic hypercalciuria (IH).Methods: Between August 2007 and June 2008, 105 lithiasic patients were distributed into 2 groups: Group 1 (n = 55): patients with IH (urinary calcium excretion > 250 mg in women and 300 mg in men with normal serum calcium); Group 2 (n = 50): normocalciuric patients (NC). Inclusion criteria were: age over 18 years, normal renal function (creatinine clearance >= 60 ml/min), absent proteinuria and negative urinary culture. Pregnant women, patients with intestinal pathologies, chronic diarrhea or using corticoids were excluded. The protocol of metabolic investigation was based on non-consecutive collection of two 24-hour samples for dosages of: calcium, sodium, uric acid, citrate, oxalate, magnesium and urinary volume. Food intake was evaluated by the three-day dietary record quantitative method, and the Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated and classified according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Sodium intake was evaluated based on 24-hour urinary sodium excretion.Results: The distribution in both groups as regards mean age (42.11 +/- 10.61 vs. 46.14 +/- 11.52), weight (77.14 +/- 16.03 vs. 75.99 +/- 15.80), height (1.64 +/- 0.10 vs. 1.64 +/- plusorminus 0.08) and BMI (28.78 +/- 5.81 vs. 28.07 +/- 5.27) was homogeneous. Urinary excretion of calcium (433.33 +/- 141.92 vs. 188.93 +/- 53.09), sodium (280.08 +/- 100.94 vs. 200.44.93 +/- 65.81), uric acid (880.63 +/- 281.50 vs. 646.74 +/- 182.76) and magnesium (88.78 +/- 37.53 vs. 64.34 +/- 31.84) was significantly higher in the IH group (p < 0.05). There was no statistical difference in calcium intake between the groups, and there was significantly higher salt intake in patients with IH than in NC.Conclusions: This study showed that salt intake was higher in patients with IH as compared to NC.

Urinary lithiasis and idiopathic hypercalciuria: the importance of dietary intake evaluation

PUSPOSE: To evaluate food intake of patients with urinary lithiasis and idiopathic hypercalciuria (IH). MATERIALS and METHODS: Between August 2007 and June 2008, 105 patients with lithiasis were distributed into 2 groups: Group 1 (n = 55) - patients with IH (urinary calcium excretion > 250 mg in women and 300 mg in men with normal serum calcium); Group 2 (n = 50) - normocalciuria (NC) patients . Inclusion criteria were: age over 18, normal renal function (creatinine clearance = 60 mL/min), absent proteinuria and negative urinary culture. Pregnant women, patients with some intestinal pathology, chronic diarrhea or using corticoids were excluded. The protocol of metabolic investigation was based on non-consecutive collection of two 24-hour samples for dosages of: calcium, sodium, uric acid, citrate, oxalate, magnesium and urinary volume. Food intake was evaluated through the quantitative method of Dietary Register of three days. RESULTS: Urinary excretion of calcium (433.33 ± 141.92 vs. 188.93 ± 53.09), sodium (280.08 ± 100.94 vs. 200.44.93 ± 65.81), uric acid (880.63 ± 281.50 vs. 646.74 ± 182.76) and magnesium (88.78 ± 37.53 vs. 64.34 ± 31.84) was significantly higher in the IH group in comparison to the NC group (p < 0.05). As regards the nutritional composition of food intake of IH and NC groups, there was no statistical significant difference in any nutrient evaluated. CONCLUSION: In our study, no difference was observed in the food intake of patients with urinary lithiasis and IH or NC.

Ejaculatory dysfunction in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats: the role of testosterone

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Prevalência do hipotiroidismo subclínico e repercussões sobre o perfil lipídico e massa óssea em mulheres na pós-menopausa

OBJETIVO: avaliar a prevalência do hipotiroidismo subclínico e suas repercussões sobre o perfil lipídico e a densidade mineral óssea (DMO) em mulheres na pós-menopausa. Métodos: trata-se de estudo transversal com recuperação de dados de prontuários de pacientes acompanhadas em ambulatório de climatério. Critérios de inclusão: mulheres na pós-menopausa com dosagem do hormônio estimulador da tiróide (TSH) e de tiroxina livre (T4-L). Critérios de exclusão: hipertiroidismo e carcinoma de tiróide. Considerou-se hipotiroidismo subclínico valores de TSH superiores a 5,0 mUI/mL e T4-L normal. Foram selecionadas 320 pacientes (idade 55,2±6,4 anos) divididas em 3 grupos: função tiroideana normal (n=208), hipotiroidismo subclínico (n=53) e hipotiroidismo clínico sob tratamento (n=59). Foram analisados dados clínicos, uso de terapia hormonal, índice de massa corpórea (IMC=kg/m²), perfil lipídico (colesterol total, HDL, LDL, triglicerídeos) e DMO da coluna lombar e fêmur. Na análise estatística, as diferenças entre as médias dos grupos foram comparadas utilizando-se a análise de variância (ANOVA). Para múltipla comparação, assumindo que a variância era diferente entre os grupos, utilizou-se o método de Tukey. RESULTADOS: o hipotiroidismo subclínico foi diagnosticado em 16,1% dos casos. Os grupos foram homogêneos quanto às características clínicas, IMC e perfil lipídico e uso de terapêutica hormonal. Nas pacientes com hipotiroidismo subclínico ou clínico encontrou-se menor freqüência de osteopenia na coluna lombar e fêmur quando comparadas às eutiroidianas (p<0,001). Houve correlação negativa entre os valores de TSH e DMO da coluna lombar e fêmur (p<0,001). Não se constatou correlação entre os valores de TSH e idade, tempo de menopausa, IMC e perfil lipídico. O total de usuárias de terapia hormonal foi de 65,1%, duração média de 3,43±2,42 anos, não diferindo entre os grupos. CONCLUSÃO: o hipotiroidismo subclínico com prevalência de 16,1% na pós-menopausa associou-se à baixa DMO, mas sem repercussões sobre o perfil lipídico.

Flexibilidade anterior do tronco no adolecente após o pico da velocidade de crescimento em estatura

Flexibilidade anterior do tronco (FAT) é um componente importante dos exames clínico e de aptidão física utilizado como indicador da função vertebral. O teste mais utilizado para sua quantificação é o sentar-e-alcançar (TSA), que considerara como padrão de normalidade o toque das mãos nos pés, com critérios e parâmetros de análise que independem das variáveis. Neste estudo, investigou-se a FAT em adolescentes, após o pico da velocidade de crescimento em estatura, em função do sexo, da velocidade de execução e dos dados antropométricos. Os índices foram obtidos em centímetros; o peso corporal em kg. Participaram 102 adolescentes, sendo 45 mulheres e 57 homens, entre 16 e 20 anos de idade. Resultados indicam que o fator sexo, dados antropométricos e a velocidade de execução do teste influenciam os índices de flexibilidade; a avaliação da função vertebral não pode ter como critério de normalidade atingir os pés pelo TSA, e que a velocidade rápida leva a melhores resultados. em resumo, os resultados indicam que tocar os pés, é um critério que exclui da normalidade da função vertebral aproximadamente 50% dos adolescentes. Assim, o critério para tomada de decisão quanto ao encaminhamento do adolescente para recuperação de maiores índices de flexibilidade precisa ser revisto.

Tibial segmental bone defect treated with bone plate and cage filled with either xenogeneic composite or autologous cortical bone graft

Tibia segmental defect healing in sheep were clinically, radiographically and histologically evaluated. Twelve young sheep aged four to five months were divided into two groups, G1 and G2. A 3.5 cm long segmental defect was created in the right tibial diaphysis with maintenance of the periosteum. The bone defects in both groups were stabilized with a bone plate combined with a titanium cage. In G1 the cage was filled with pieces of autologous cortical bone graft. In G2 it was filled with a composite biomaterial which consisted of inorganic bovine bone, demineralized bovine bone, a pool of bovine bone morphogenetic proteins bound to absorbable ultra-thin powdered hydroxyapatiteand bone-derived denaturized collagen. Except for one G1 animal, all of them showed normal limb function 60 days after surgery. Radiographic examination showed initial formation of periosteal callus in both groups at osteo-tomy sites, over the plate or cage 15 days postoperatively. At 60 and 90 days callus remodeling occurred. Histological and morphometric analysis at 90 days after surgery showed that the quantity of implanted materials in G1 and G2 were similar, and the quantity of new bone formation was less (p = 0.0048) and more immature in G1 than G2, occupying 51 +/- 3.46% and 62 +/- 6.26% of the cage space, respectively. These results suggest that the composite biomaterial tested was a good alternative to autologous cartical bone graft in this experimental ovine tibial defect. However, additional evaluation is warranted prior to its clinical usage.

Effect of total abdominal hysterectomy on ovarian blood supply in women of reproductive age

Objective. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of total abdominal hysterectomy on ovarian blood supply using transvaginal color Doppler ultrasonography in women of reproductive age. Methods. This prospective study included 61 women aged 40 years or younger who were divided into 2 groups: group 1, comprising 31 patients who underwent total abdominal hysterectomy (TAH), and group 2, comprising 30 women with no abnormalities. Inclusion criteria included normal ovarian function at baseline, with basal follicle-stimulating hormone levels of less than 15 mUI/mL, normal body weight, no tobacco use, and no history of laparotomy or ovarian disease. Ovarian arterial blood supply by determination of the pulsatility index (PI) on Doppler analysis and ovarian volume on transvaginal ultrasonography were assessed at baseline and at 6 and 12 postoperative months. The Student t test, profile analysis, and Friedman and Mann-Whitney tests were used in the statistical analysis of data. Results. Statistical analysis of baseline data revealed that both groups were homogeneous. At months 6 and 12, greater ovarian volumes and lower PI values were observed in patients who underwent TAH (P < .05). By the end of the study, in 8 of the 31 patients who underwent TAH (25.5%), benign ovarian cysts were observed. in the control group, all the parameters studied remained unchanged. Conclusions. The reduced PI values observed on Doppler ultrasonography suggested a decrease in the resistance flow in the ovarian arteries in women of reproductive age who underwent TAH.