874 resultados para Modified Delphi method


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Increasing energy use has caused many environmental problems including global warming. Energy use is growing rapidly in developing countries and surprisingly a remarkable portion of it is associated with consumed energy to keep the temperature comfortable inside the buildings. Therefore, identifying renewable technologies for cooling and heating is essential. This study introduced applications of steel sheets integrated into the buildings to save energy based on existing technologies. In addition, the proposed application was found to have a considerable chance of market success. Also, satisfying energy needs for space heating and cooling in a single room by using one of the selected applications in different Köppen climate classes was investigated to estimate which climates have a proper potential for benefiting from the application. This study included three independent parts and the results related to each part have been used in the next part. The first part recognizes six different technologies through literature review including Cool Roof, Solar Chimney, Steel Cladding of Building, Night Radiative Cooling, Elastomer Metal Absorber, and Solar Distillation. The second part evaluated the application of different technologies by gathering the experts’ ideas via performing a Delphi method. The results showed that the Solar Chimney has a proper chance for the market. The third part simulated both a solar chimney and a solar chimney with evaporation which were connected to a single well insulated room with a considerable thermal mass. The combination was simulated as a system to estimate the possibility of satisfying cooling needs and heating needs in different climate classes. A Trombe-wall was selected as a sample design for the Solar Chimney and was simulated in different climates. The results implied that the solar chimney had the capability of reducing the cooling needs more than 25% in all of the studied locations and 100% in some locations with dry or temperate climate such as Mashhad, Madrid, and Istanbul. It was also observed that the heating needs were satisfied more than 50% in all of the studied locations, even for the continental climate such as Stockholm and 100% in most locations with a dry climate. Therefore, the Solar Chimney reduces energy use, saves environment resources, and it is a cost effective application. Furthermore, it saves the equipment costs in many locations. All the results mentioned above make the solar chimney a very practical and attractive tool for a wide range of climates.

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Outliers são observações que parecem ser inconsistentes com as demais. Também chamadas de valores atípicos, extremos ou aberrantes, estas inconsistências podem ser causadas por mudanças de política ou crises econômicas, ondas inesperadas de frio ou calor, erros de medida ou digitação, entre outras. Outliers não são necessariamente valores incorretos, mas, quando provenientes de erros de medida ou digitação, podem distorcer os resultados de uma análise e levar o pesquisador à conclusões equivocadas. O objetivo deste trabalho é estudar e comparar diferentes métodos para detecção de anormalidades em séries de preços do Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (IPC), calculado pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE) da Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV). O IPC mede a variação dos preços de um conjunto fixo de bens e serviços componentes de despesas habituais das famílias com nível de renda situado entre 1 e 33 salários mínimos mensais e é usado principalmente como um índice de referência para avaliação do poder de compra do consumidor. Além do método utilizado atualmente no IBRE pelos analistas de preços, os métodos considerados neste estudo são: variações do Método do IBRE, Método do Boxplot, Método do Boxplot SIQR, Método do Boxplot Ajustado, Método de Cercas Resistentes, Método do Quartil, do Quartil Modificado, Método do Desvio Mediano Absoluto e Algoritmo de Tukey. Tais métodos foram aplicados em dados pertencentes aos municípios Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo. Para que se possa analisar o desempenho de cada método, é necessário conhecer os verdadeiros valores extremos antecipadamente. Portanto, neste trabalho, tal análise foi feita assumindo que os preços descartados ou alterados pelos analistas no processo de crítica são os verdadeiros outliers. O Método do IBRE é bastante correlacionado com os preços alterados ou descartados pelos analistas. Sendo assim, a suposição de que os preços alterados ou descartados pelos analistas são os verdadeiros valores extremos pode influenciar os resultados, fazendo com que o mesmo seja favorecido em comparação com os demais métodos. No entanto, desta forma, é possível computar duas medidas através das quais os métodos são avaliados. A primeira é a porcentagem de acerto do método, que informa a proporção de verdadeiros outliers detectados. A segunda é o número de falsos positivos produzidos pelo método, que informa quantos valores precisaram ser sinalizados para um verdadeiro outlier ser detectado. Quanto maior for a proporção de acerto gerada pelo método e menor for a quantidade de falsos positivos produzidos pelo mesmo, melhor é o desempenho do método. Sendo assim, foi possível construir um ranking referente ao desempenho dos métodos, identificando o melhor dentre os analisados. Para o município do Rio de Janeiro, algumas das variações do Método do IBRE apresentaram desempenhos iguais ou superiores ao do método original. Já para o município de São Paulo, o Método do IBRE apresentou o melhor desempenho. Em trabalhos futuros, espera-se testar os métodos em dados obtidos por simulação ou que constituam bases largamente utilizadas na literatura, de forma que a suposição de que os preços descartados ou alterados pelos analistas no processo de crítica são os verdadeiros outliers não interfira nos resultados.

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Alternative and clean energy generation research has been intensified in last decades. Among the alternatives, fuel cells are one of the most important. There are different types of fuel cells, among which stands out intermediate temperature solid oxide fuel cell (IT-SOFC) matter of the present work. For application as cathode on this type of devices, the ceramic Ba0.5Sr0.5C0.8Fe0.2O3-δ doped with rare earth ions (Nd, Sm) have been quite promising because they show good ionic conductivity and operate at relatively low temperatures (500 - 800°C). In this work, Ba0.5Sr0.5Co0.8Fe0.2O3-δ, (BaSr)0.5Sm0.5Co0.8Fe0.2O3-δ and (BaSr)0.5Nd0.5C0.8Fe0.2O3-δ were obtained by modified Pechini method, making use of gelatin as polymerizing agent. The powders were characterized by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Temperature Programmed Reduction (TPR) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). The perovskite phase was observed in all X-ray patterns for the materials Ba0.5Sr0.5C0.8Fe0.2O3-δ doped with rare earth ions (Nd, Sm). The SEM images showed that the materials have a characteristics porous, with very uniform pore distribution, which are favorable for application as cathodes. Subsequently, screen-printed assymmetrical cells were studied by impedance spectroscopy, to assess the kinetics of the cathode for the reduction reaction of oxygen. The best resistance to the specific area was found for the cathode BSSCF sintered at 1050 °C for 4 hours with around 0.15 Ω.cm2 at 750 °C as well as cathodes BSNCF and BSCF obtained resistances specific area of 0.2 and 0.73 Ω.cm2, respectively, for the same conditions. The polarization curves showed similar behavior to the best cathodes BSSCF and BSNCF, such combination of properties indicates that the film potentially depict good performance as IT-SOFC cathodes

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The technology of anaerobic reactors for sanitary wastewater treatment has been extensively developed in Brazil, and today it is practically consolidated. They present several advantages, such as low construction and operating costs, and low sludge production, the anaerobic reactors are an attractive alternative to minimize problematic lack of basic sanitation in urban areas, and also of the rural areas. The anaerobic filters have been widely used in Brazil. It produces an effluent with low concentration of organic matter and solids suspended, besides conserving the nutrients, therefore, it is good for use in irrigation, but the practice must be associated with knowledge of the pathogens presence. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of anaerobic filters in removal faecal coliforms and helminth eggs, and to verify if the effluent can be used for agricultural purposes, according to the World Organization of Health (WHO, 1989). The protocol used to enumerate helminths eggs was the modified Bailenger method, (Ayres and Mara, 1996) recommended by WHO for evaluation of raw effluent and treated effluent. The membrane filtration method was utilized to determine the concentrations of faecal coliforms. Three different systems of sewer treatment composed by anaerobic filters were analyzed. The results, in a general analysis, showed that all the researched systems reached a larger removal than 93% to helminth eggs, resulting in an effluent with smaller average than 1 egg/L. One of these systems, Sistema RN, reached a larger removal than 99%, confirming the good performance of the anaerobic filters in removal helminths eggs. Even with low concentrations of eggs in the influent, the filters were capable to remove this parameter efficiently. About faecal coliforms, it was observed for all the researched systems an effluent with 106 CFU/100mL. The high concentrations to faecal coliforms in the effluent just allow reuse for restricted irrigation, in agreement with the guidelines of WHO. Although the researched systems have not removed faecal coliforms efficiently, the results indicated a good efficiency of the anaerobic filters in removal helminth eggs

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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In this work we have elaborated a spline-based method of solution of inicial value problems involving ordinary differential equations, with emphasis on linear equations. The method can be seen as an alternative for the traditional solvers such as Runge-Kutta, and avoids root calculations in the linear time invariant case. The method is then applied on a central problem of control theory, namely, the step response problem for linear EDOs with possibly varying coefficients, where root calculations do not apply. We have implemented an efficient algorithm which uses exclusively matrix-vector operations. The working interval (till the settling time) was determined through a calculation of the least stable mode using a modified power method. Several variants of the method have been compared by simulation. For general linear problems with fine grid, the proposed method compares favorably with the Euler method. In the time invariant case, where the alternative is root calculation, we have indications that the proposed method is competitive for equations of sifficiently high order.

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The present work aims the preparation of filmes of strontium-doped lanthanum manganite (perovskita) yttria-stabilized zirconia (LSM-SDC) films deposited on substrate of YSZ by means of spin coating technique having as principal objective their application to solid oxide fuel cells of intermediate temperature. La0,8Sr0,2MnO3 and Ce0,8Sm0,2O1,9 were obtained by modified Pechini method by use of gelatin which act as polymerization agent. The powders obtained were characterized by Xray fluorescence, X ray diffraction, electronic scanning microscopy and the superficial area by BET method. The results obtained by X-ray fluorescence showed that the route adopted for obtention of powders was effective in the obtention of the compositions with close values to the stoichiometrics. Ethyl cellulose was used as pore-forming agent and mixed with the LSM-SDC powders in weight proportions of 1:24, 2:23 and 1:9. The films were sintered at 1150 °C for 4 h and characterized by X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy technique (SEM) and atomic force. The phases quantification of the precursory powders and of the obtained films was carried through Rietveld method. According with the analysis of SEM, as the content of ethyl cellulose was increased, the pore distribution in films become more uniform and the pore size reduced. The methodology used for the obtention of the films was very efficient, considering a material was obtained with characteristics that were proper to the application as electrolyte/cathode system to solid oxide fuel cells

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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PLZT ceramics belong to one of the very important groups of functional materials that make a basis for the production of a large range of electronic devices. The microstructure and properties of ceramics depend on the powder preparation and thermal processing conditions. Various techniques have been used to obtain chemically homogeneous and fine starting powders. PLZT powders have been prepared by two different production routes: by a modified Pechini method, using a polymeric precursor method (PMM) and by a partial oxalate method. A two-step sintering process, including a hot pressing, was carried out at 1100 and 1200degreesC Distinct phases obtained during the sintering process have been investigated by SEM and EDS techniques and dielectric properties such as permittivity and dielectric loss were measured in a frequency range from 1 to 20 kHz.. A significant difference in microstructure and dielectric properties, depending on powder origin and sintering procedure, has been noticed.

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A modified spectrophotometric method for serum glutamic-oxaloacetic transaminase (SGOT) assay was developed. A crude cell-free extract from Streptomyces aureofaciens which showed a high level of malate dehydrogenase (MDH) activity (E.C. 1.1.1.37) was used as the enzymatic indicator. The lyophilized microbial preparation was used without previous purification and was quite stable under refrigeration for one year. Serum sample assays using both the method utilizing the crude cell extract and an enzymatic commercial kit showed good correlation.

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We performed immunogold labeling with an ST-1 monoclonal antibody (IgM), specific for intact heparin, to define the subcellular localization of heparin in mast cells. Rat peritoneal mast cells were fixed by a modified Karnovsky method and embedded in Araldite. Ultrathin sections were first treated with sodium periodate and then sequentially incubated with MAb ST-1, rabbit anti-mouse IgM, and protein A-gold. By transmission electron microscopy, gold particles were localized inside cytoplasmic granules of peritoneal mast cells. In contrast, with the same procedure, no labeling was observed in mast cells from rat intestinal mucosa. Control sections of rat peritoneal or intestinal mucosa mast Mast cells cells treated with an irrelevant MAb (IgM) did not show any labeling. Treatment with nitrous Heparin acid abolished the reactivity of MAb ST-1 with peritoneal mast cells. These results Granules show that different mast cells can be identified regarding their heparin content by immunochemical procedures using MAb ST-1.

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The electrical properties of the grain boundary region of electroceramic sensor temperature based on inverse spinel Zn7Sb2O12 were investigated at high temperature. The zinc antimoniate was synthesized by a chemical route based on the modified Pechini method. The electric properties of Zn7Sb2O12 were investigated by impedance spectroscopy in the frequency range from 5 Hz to 13 MHz and from 250 up to 600 degreesC. The grain boundary conductivity follows the Arrhenius law, with two linear branches of different slopes. These branches exhibit activation energies with very similar values; the low-temperature (less than or equal to350 degreesC) and high-temperature (greater than or equal to400 degreesC) regions are equal to 1.15 and 1.16 eV, respectively. Dissimilar behavior is observed on the relaxation time (tau) curve as a function of temperature, where a single slope is identified. The negative temperature coefficient parameters and nature of the polarization phenomenon of the grain boundary are discussed. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

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A recent and innovative method to include Ti into the columbite precursor has permitted to synthesize 0.9PMN-0.1PT powders with high homogeneity. The present work describes this methodology, named modified columbite method, showing that the reaction between MN(T)and PbO at 800 degrees C for 2 h results in perovskite single-phase. The crystal structure alterations in the columbite and perovskite phases obtained by this methodology and the effects of potassium doping were investigated by the Rietveld method. Changes in the powder morphology, density and weight loss during the sintering process were also studied. Conclusively, potassium does not affect significantly the perovskite amount, but reduces the particle and grain sizes. This dopant also changes the relaxor behavior of 0.9PMN-0.1 PT ceramic, reducing the dielectric loss and enhancing the diffuseness of the phase transition. (C) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd and Techna Gronp S.r.l.

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Vitreous samples were prepared in the (100 - x)% NaPO3-x% MoO3 (0 <= x <= 70) glass-forming system by a modified melt method that allowed good optical quality samples to be obtained. The structural evolution of the vitreous network was monitored as a function of composition by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), Raman scattering, and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for P-31, Na-23, and Mo-95 nuclei. Addition of MoO3 to the NaPO3 glass melt leads to a pronounced increase in the glass transition temperatures up to x = 45, suggesting a significant increase in network connectivity. For this same composition range, vibrational spectra suggest that the Mo6+ ions are bonded to some nonbridging oxygen atoms (Mo-O- or Mo=O bonded species). Mo-O-Mo bond formation occurs only at MoO3 contents exceeding x = 45. P-31 magic-angle spinning (MAS) NMR spectra, supported by two-dimensional J-resolved spectroscopy, allow a clear distinction between species having two, one, and zero P-O-P linkages. These sites are denoted as Q(2Mo)((2)), Q(1Mo)((2)), and Q(0Mo)((2)), respectively. For x < 0.45, the populations of these sites can be described along the lines of a binary model, according to which each unit of MoO3 converts two Q(nMo)((2)) sites into two Q((n+1)Mo)((2)) sites (n = 0, 1). This structural model is consistent with the presence of tetrahedral Mo(=O)(2)(O-1/2)(2) environments. Indeed, Mo-95 NMR data suggest that the majority of the molybdenum species are four-coordinated. However, the presence of additional six-coordinate molybdenum in the MAS NMR spectra indicates that the structure of these glasses may be more complicated and may additionally involve sharing of network modifier oxide between the network formers phosphorus and molybdenum. This latter hypothesis is further supported by Na-23{P-31} rotational echo double resonance (REDOR) data, which clearly reveal that the magnetic dipole-dipole interactions between P-31 and Na-23 are increasingly diminished with increasing molybdenum content. The partial transfer of modifier from the phosphate to the molybdate network former implies a partial repolymerization of the phosphate species, resulting in the formation of Q(nMo)((3)) species and accounting for the observed increase in the glass transition temperature with increasing MoO3 content that is observed in the composition range 0 <= x <= 45. Glasses with MoO3 contents beyond x = 45 show decreased thermal and crystallization stability. Their structure is characterized by isolated phosphate species [most likely of the P(OMo)(4) type] and molybdenum oxide clusters with a large extent of Mo-O-Mo connectivity.