Modelling and predictive control techniques for building heating systems

Model predictive control (MPC) has often been referred to in literature as a potential method for more efficient control of building heating systems. Though a significant performance improvement can be achieved with an MPC strategy, the complexity introduced to the commissioning of the system is often prohibitive. Models are required which can capture the thermodynamic properties of the building with sufficient accuracy for meaningful predictions to be made. Furthermore, a large number of tuning weights may need to be determined to achieve a desired performance. For MPC to become a practicable alternative, these issues must be addressed. Acknowledging the impact of the external environment as well as the interaction of occupants on the thermal behaviour of the building, in this work, techniques have been developed for deriving building models from data in which large, unmeasured disturbances are present. A spatio-temporal filtering process was introduced to determine estimates of the disturbances from measured data, which were then incorporated with metaheuristic search techniques to derive high-order simulation models, capable of replicating the thermal dynamics of a building. While a high-order simulation model allowed for control strategies to be analysed and compared, low-order models were required for use within the MPC strategy itself. The disturbance estimation techniques were adapted for use with system-identification methods to derive such models. MPC formulations were then derived to enable a more straightforward commissioning process and implemented in a validated simulation platform. A prioritised-objective strategy was developed which allowed for the tuning parameters typically associated with an MPC cost function to be omitted from the formulation by separation of the conflicting requirements of comfort satisfaction and energy reduction within a lexicographic framework. The improved ability of the formulation to be set-up and reconfigured in faulted conditions was shown.

Analysis of the impact of stationary energy storage systems in trolleybus grids using Simulink-based modelling

The voltage profile of the catenary between traction substations (TSSs) is affected by the trolleybus current intake and by its position with respect to the TSSs: the higher the current requested by the bus and the further the bus from the TSSs, the deeper the voltage drop. When the voltage drops below 500V, the trolleybus is forced to decrease its consumption by reducing its input current. This thesis deals with the analysis of the improvements that the installation of an BESS produces in the operation of a particularly loaded FS of the DC trolleybus network of the city of Bologna. The stationary BESS is charged by the TSSs during off-peak times and delivers the stored energy when the catenary is overloaded alleviating the load on the TSSs and reducing the voltage drops. Only IMC buses are considered in the prospect of a future disposal of all internal combustion engine vehicles. These trolleybuses cause deeper voltage drops because they absorb enough current to power their traction motor and recharge the on board battery. The control of the BESS aims to keep the catenary voltage within the admissible voltage range and makes sure that all physical limitations are met. A model of FS Marconi Trento Trieste is implemented in Simulink environment to simulate its daily operation and compare the behavior of the trolleybus network with and without BESS. From the simulation without BESS, the best location of the energy storage system is deduced, and the battery control is tuned. Furthermore, from the knowledge of the load curve and the battery control trans-characteristic, it is formulated a prediction of the voltage distribution at BESS connection point. The prediction is then compared with the simulation results to validate the Simulink model. The BESS allows to decrease the voltage drops along the catenary, the Joule losses and the current delivered by the TSSs, indicating that the BESS can be a solution to improve the operation of the trolleybus network.

Modelling of ORC components and systems for low-medium temperature heat recovery applications with reduced environmental impact

Although its great potential as low to medium temperature waste heat recovery (WHR) solution, the ORC technology presents open challenges that still prevent its diffusion in the market, which are different depending on the application and the size at stake. Focusing on the micro range power size and low temperature heat sources, the ORC technology is still not mature due to the lack of appropriate machines and working fluids. Considering instead the medium to large size, the technology is already available but the investment is still risky. The intention of this thesis is to address some of the topical themes in the ORC field, paying special attention in the development of reliable models based on realistic data and accounting for the off-design performance of the ORC system and of each of its components. Concerning the “Micro-generation” application, this work: i) explores the modelling methodology, the performance and the optimal parameters of reciprocating piston expanders; ii) investigates the performance of such expander and of the whole micro-ORC system when using Hydrofluorocarbons as working fluid or their new low GWP alternatives and mixtures; iii) analyzes the innovative ORC reversible architecture (conceived for the energy storage), its optimal regulation strategy and its potential when inserted in typical small industrial frameworks. Regarding the “Industrial WHR” sector, this thesis examines the WHR opportunity of ORCs, with a focus on the natural gas compressor stations application. This work provides information about all the possible parameters that can influence the optimal sizing, the performance and thus the feasibility of installing an ORC system. New WHR configurations are explored: i) a first one, relying on the replacement of a compressor prime mover with an ORC; ii) a second one, which consists in the use of a supercritical CO2 cycle as heat recovery system.

Design and Off-design modelling of advanced Power-to-Gas energy storage systems

Power-to-Gas storage systems have the potential to address grid-stability issues that arise when an increasing share of power is generated from sources that have a highly variable output. Although the proof-of-concept of these has been promising, the behaviour of the processes in off-design conditions is not easily predictable. The primary aim of this PhD project was to evaluate the performance of an original Power-to-Gas system, made up of innovative components. To achieve this, a numerical model has been developed to simulate the characteristics and the behaviour of the several components when the whole system is coupled with a renewable source. The developed model has been applied to a large variety of scenarios, evaluating the performance of the considered process and exploiting a limited amount of experimental data. The model has been then used to compare different Power-to-Gas concepts, in a real scenario of functioning. Several goals have been achieved. In the concept phase, the possibility to thermally integrate the high temperature components has been demonstrated. Then, the parameters that affect the energy performance of a Power-to-Gas system coupled with a renewable source have been identified, providing general recommendations on the design of hybrid systems; these parameters are: 1) the ratio between the storage system size and the renewable generator size; 2) the type of coupled renewable source; 3) the related production profile. Finally, from the results of the comparative analysis, it is highlighted that configurations with a highly oversized renewable source with respect to the storage system show the maximum achievable profit.

Modelling, simulations and monitoring for sustainable plant and animal production systems through precision technique

Protected crop production is a modern and innovative approach to cultivating plants in a controlled environment to optimize growth, yield, and quality. This method involves using structures such as greenhouses or tunnels to create a sheltered environment. These productive solutions are characterized by a careful regulation of variables like temperature, humidity, light, and ventilation, which collectively contribute to creating an optimal microclimate for plant growth. Heating, cooling, and ventilation systems are used to maintain optimal conditions for plant growth, regardless of external weather fluctuations. Protected crop production plays a crucial role in addressing challenges posed by climate variability, population growth, and food security. Similarly, animal husbandry involves providing adequate nutrition, housing, medical care and environmental conditions to ensure animal welfare. Then, sustainability is a critical consideration in all forms of agriculture, including protected crop and animal production. Sustainability in animal production refers to the practice of producing animal products in a way that minimizes negative impacts on the environment, promotes animal welfare, and ensures the long-term viability of the industry. Then, the research activities performed during the PhD can be inserted exactly in the field of Precision Agriculture and Livestock farming. Here the focus is on the computational fluid dynamic (CFD) approach and environmental assessment applied to improve yield, resource efficiency, environmental sustainability, and cost savings. It represents a significant shift from traditional farming methods to a more technology-driven, data-driven, and environmentally conscious approach to crop and animal production. On one side, CFD is powerful and precise techniques of computer modeling and simulation of airflows and thermo-hygrometric parameters, that has been applied to optimize the growth environment of crops and the efficiency of ventilation in pig barns. On the other side, the sustainability aspect has been investigated and researched in terms of Life Cycle Assessment analyses.

O3b mPOWER Systems - Aero route modelling

The main goal of this internship is to develop a tool to perform a resource usage (and cost) estimation. There has been a major focus in the analysis of the gain levels and on the possibility of an outage. During the evaluation, it is shown that fast gain level adjustment has a major impact on link quality and resource consumption. On top of that, having a random outage during a flight is not a critical condition if even the simplest solution can be applied to overcome and compensate.

The Basic Reproduction Number Obtained From Jacobian And Next Generation Matrices - A Case Study Of Dengue Transmission Modelling.

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter in mathematical modelling of transmissible diseases. From the stability analysis of the disease free equilibrium, by applying Routh-Hurwitz criteria, a threshold is obtained, which is called the basic reproduction number. However, the application of spectral radius theory on the next generation matrix provides a different expression for the basic reproduction number, that is, the square root of the previously found formula. If the spectral radius of the next generation matrix is defined as the geometric mean of partial reproduction numbers, however the product of these partial numbers is the basic reproduction number, then both methods provide the same expression. In order to show this statement, dengue transmission modelling incorporating or not the transovarian transmission is considered as a case study. Also tuberculosis transmission and sexually transmitted infection modellings are taken as further examples.

A contribution for thermoeconomic modelling: A methodology proposal

This work presents a thermoeconomic optimization methodology for the analysis and design of energy systems. This methodology involves economic aspects related to the exergy conception, in order to develop a tool to assist the equipment selection, operation mode choice as well as to optimize the thermal plants design. It also presents the concepts related to exergy in a general scope and in thermoeconomics which combines the thermal sciences principles (thermodynamics, heat transfer, and fluid mechanics) and the economic engineering in order to rationalize energy systems investment decisions, development and operation. Even in this paper, it develops a thermoeconomic methodology through the use of a simple mathematical model, involving thermodynamics parameters and costs evaluation, also defining the objective function as the exergetic production cost. The optimization problem evaluation is developed for two energy systems. First is applied to a steam compression refrigeration system and then to a cogeneration system using backpressure steam turbine. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A reference business process for ecological niche modelling

Ecological niche modelling combines species occurrence points with environmental raster layers in order to obtain models for describing the probabilistic distribution of species. The process to generate an ecological niche model is complex. It requires dealing with a large amount of data, use of different software packages for data conversion, for model generation and for different types of processing and analyses, among other functionalities. A software platform that integrates all requirements under a single and seamless interface would be very helpful for users. Furthermore, since biodiversity modelling is constantly evolving, new requirements are constantly being added in terms of functions, algorithms and data formats. This evolution must be accompanied by any software intended to be used in this area. In this scenario, a Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is an appropriate choice for designing such systems. According to SOA best practices and methodologies, the design of a reference business process must be performed prior to the architecture definition. The purpose is to understand the complexities of the process (business process in this context refers to the ecological niche modelling problem) and to design an architecture able to offer a comprehensive solution, called a reference architecture, that can be further detailed when implementing specific systems. This paper presents a reference business process for ecological niche modelling, as part of a major work focused on the definition of a reference architecture based on SOA concepts that will be used to evolve the openModeller software package for species modelling. The basic steps that are performed while developing a model are described, highlighting important aspects, based on the knowledge of modelling experts. In order to illustrate the steps defined for the process, an experiment was developed, modelling the distribution of Ouratea spectabilis (Mart.) Engl. (Ochnaceae) using openModeller. As a consequence of the knowledge gained with this work, many desirable improvements on the modelling software packages have been identified and are presented. Also, a discussion on the potential for large-scale experimentation in ecological niche modelling is provided, highlighting opportunities for research. The results obtained are very important for those involved in the development of modelling tools and systems, for requirement analysis and to provide insight on new features and trends for this category of systems. They can also be very helpful for beginners in modelling research, who can use the process and the experiment example as a guide to this complex activity. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring complexity in three-trophic level systems

This essay is a trial on measuring complexity in a three-trophic level system by using a convex function of the informational entropy. The complexity measure defined here is compatible with the fact that real complexity lies between ordered and disordered states. Applying this measure to the data collected for two three-trophic level systems some hints about their organization are obtained. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - III. The integrated wheat model (I_WHEAT)

Previous work has identified several short-comings in the ability of four spring wheat and one barley model to simulate crop processes and resource utilization. This can have important implications when such models are used within systems models where final soil water and nitrogen conditions of one crop define the starting conditions of the following crop. In an attempt to overcome these limitations and to reconcile a range of modelling approaches, existing model components that worked demonstrably well were combined with new components for aspects where existing capabilities were inadequate. This resulted in the Integrated Wheat Model (I_WHEAT), which was developed as a module of the cropping systems model APSIM. To increase predictive capability of the model, process detail was reduced, where possible, by replacing groups of processes with conservative, biologically meaningful parameters. I_WHEAT does not contain a soil water or soil nitrogen balance. These are present as other modules of APSIM. In I_WHEAT, yield is simulated using a linear increase in harvest index whereby nitrogen or water limitations can lead to early termination of grainfilling and hence cessation of harvest index increase. Dry matter increase is calculated either from the amount of intercepted radiation and radiation conversion efficiency or from the amount of water transpired and transpiration efficiency, depending on the most limiting resource. Leaf area and tiller formation are calculated from thermal time and a cultivar specific phyllochron interval. Nitrogen limitation first reduces leaf area and then affects radiation conversion efficiency as it becomes more severe. Water or nitrogen limitations result in reduced leaf expansion, accelerated leaf senescence or tiller death. This reduces the radiation load on the crop canopy (i.e. demand for water) and can make nitrogen available for translocation to other organs. Sensitive feedbacks between light interception and dry matter accumulation are avoided by having environmental effects acting directly on leaf area development, rather than via biomass production. This makes the model more stable across environments without losing the interactions between the different external influences. When comparing model output with models tested previously using data from a wide range of agro-climatic conditions, yield and biomass predictions were equal to the best of those models, but improvements could be demonstrated for simulating leaf area dynamics in response to water and nitrogen supply, kernel nitrogen content, and total water and nitrogen use. I_WHEAT does not require calibration for any of the environments tested. Further model improvement should concentrate on improving phenology simulations, a more thorough derivation of coefficients to describe leaf area development and a better quantification of some processes related to nitrogen dynamics. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part II: Simulation of alternative farming methods

A version of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) capable of simulating the key agronomic aspects of intercropping maize between legume shrub hedgerows was described and parameterised in the first paper of this series (Nelson et al., this issue). In this paper, APSIM is used to simulate maize yields and soil erosion from traditional open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. Two variants of open-field farming were simulated using APSIM, continuous and fallow, for comparison with intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows. Continuous open-field maize farming was predicted to be unsustainable in the long term, while fallow open-field farming was predicted to slow productivity decline by spreading the effect of erosion over a larger cropping area. Hedgerow intercropping was predicted to reduce erosion by maintaining soil surface cover during periods of intense rainfall, contributing to sustainable production of maize in the long term. In the third paper in this series, Nelson et al. (this issue) use cost-benefit analysis to compare the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to traditional open-field farming of maize in relatively inaccessible upland areas. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Erosion/productivity modelling of maize farming in the Philippine uplands part III: Economic analysis of alternative farming methods

Two previous papers in this series (Nelson et al., this issue) described the use of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) to simulate the effect of erosion on maize yields from open-field farming and hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands. In this paper, maize yields simulated with APSIM are used to compare the economic viability of intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows with that of continuous and fallow open-field farming of maize. The analysis focuses on the economic incentives of upland farmers to adopt hedgerow intercropping, discussing farmers' planning horizons, access to credit and security of land tenure, as well as maize pricing in the Philippines. Insecure land tenure has limited the planning horizons of upland farmers, and high establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to continuous and fallow open-field farming in the short term, In the long term, high discount rates and share-tenancy arrangements in which landlords do not contribute to establishment costs reduce the economic viability of hedgerow intercropping relative to fallow open-field farming, (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.