Modeling some real phenomena by fractional differential equations

This paper deals with fractional differential equations, with dependence on a Caputo fractional derivative of real order. The goal is to show, based on concrete examples and experimental data from several experiments, that fractional differential equations may model more efficiently certain problems than ordinary differential equations. A numerical optimization approach based on least squares approximation is used to determine the order of the fractional operator that better describes real data, as well as other related parameters.

Software engineering: methods, modeling and teaching

Since the emergence of software engineering in the late 1960's as a response to the software crisis, researchers throughout the world are trying to give theoretical support to this discipline. Several points of view have to be reviewed in order to complete this task. In the middle 70's Frederick Brooks Jr. coined the term "silver bullet" suggesting the solution to several problems rela-ted to software engineering and, hence, we adopted such a metaphor as a symbol for this book. Methods, modeling, and teaching are the insights reviewed in this book. Some work related to these topies is presented by software engineering researchers, led by Ivar Jacobson, one of the most remarkable researchers in this area. We hope our work will contribute to advance in giving the theoretieal support that software engineering needs.

Geological realism in hydrogeological and geophysical inverse modeling: A review

Scientific curiosity, exploration of georesources and environmental concerns are pushing the geoscientific research community toward subsurface investigations of ever-increasing complexity. This review explores various approaches to formulate and solve inverse problems in ways that effectively integrate geological concepts with geophysical and hydrogeological data. Modern geostatistical simulation algorithms can produce multiple subsurface realizations that are in agreement with conceptual geological models and statistical rock physics can be used to map these realizations into physical properties that are sensed by the geophysical or hydrogeological data. The inverse problem consists of finding one or an ensemble of such subsurface realizations that are in agreement with the data. The most general inversion frameworks are presently often computationally intractable when applied to large-scale problems and it is necessary to better understand the implications of simplifying (1) the conceptual geological model (e.g., using model compression); (2) the physical forward problem (e.g., using proxy models); and (3) the algorithm used to solve the inverse problem (e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo or local optimization methods) to reach practical and robust solutions given today's computer resources and knowledge. We also highlight the need to not only use geophysical and hydrogeological data for parameter estimation purposes, but also to use them to falsify or corroborate alternative geological scenarios.

MODELING AND HARDWARE-IN-THE-LOOP SIMULATION OF POWER-SPLIT HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Conventional vehicles are creating pollution problems, global warming and the extinction of high density fuels. To address these problems, automotive companies and universities are researching on hybrid electric vehicles where two different power devices are used to propel a vehicle. This research studies the development and testing of a dynamic model for Prius 2010 Hybrid Synergy Drive (HSD), a power-split device. The device was modeled and integrated with a hybrid vehicle model. To add an electric only mode for vehicle propulsion, the hybrid synergy drive was modified by adding a clutch to carrier 1. The performance of the integrated vehicle model was tested with UDDS drive cycle using rule-based control strategy. The dSPACE Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) simulator was used for HIL simulation test. The HIL simulation result shows that the integration of developed HSD dynamic model with a hybrid vehicle model was successful. The HSD model was able to split power and isolate engine speed from vehicle speed in hybrid mode.

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING AS A QUANTITATIVE-QUALITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: INSIGHTS FOR WATER QUALITY POLICY IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION

Early water resources modeling efforts were aimed mostly at representing hydrologic processes, but the need for interdisciplinary studies has led to increasing complexity and integration of environmental, social, and economic functions. The gradual shift from merely employing engineering-based simulation models to applying more holistic frameworks is an indicator of promising changes in the traditional paradigm for the application of water resources models, supporting more sustainable management decisions. This dissertation contributes to application of a quantitative-qualitative framework for sustainable water resources management using system dynamics simulation, as well as environmental systems analysis techniques to provide insights for water quality management in the Great Lakes basin. The traditional linear thinking paradigm lacks the mental and organizational framework for sustainable development trajectories, and may lead to quick-fix solutions that fail to address key drivers of water resources problems. To facilitate holistic analysis of water resources systems, systems thinking seeks to understand interactions among the subsystems. System dynamics provides a suitable framework for operationalizing systems thinking and its application to water resources problems by offering useful qualitative tools such as causal loop diagrams (CLD), stock-and-flow diagrams (SFD), and system archetypes. The approach provides a high-level quantitative-qualitative modeling framework for "big-picture" understanding of water resources systems, stakeholder participation, policy analysis, and strategic decision making. While quantitative modeling using extensive computer simulations and optimization is still very important and needed for policy screening, qualitative system dynamics models can improve understanding of general trends and the root causes of problems, and thus promote sustainable water resources decision making. Within the system dynamics framework, a growth and underinvestment (G&U) system archetype governing Lake Allegan's eutrophication problem was hypothesized to explain the system's problematic behavior and identify policy leverage points for mitigation. A system dynamics simulation model was developed to characterize the lake's recovery from its hypereutrophic state and assess a number of proposed total maximum daily load (TMDL) reduction policies, including phosphorus load reductions from point sources (PS) and non-point sources (NPS). It was shown that, for a TMDL plan to be effective, it should be considered a component of a continuous sustainability process, which considers the functionality of dynamic feedback relationships between socio-economic growth, land use change, and environmental conditions. Furthermore, a high-level simulation-optimization framework was developed to guide watershed scale BMP implementation in the Kalamazoo watershed. Agricultural BMPs should be given priority in the watershed in order to facilitate cost-efficient attainment of the Lake Allegan's TP concentration target. However, without adequate support policies, agricultural BMP implementation may adversely affect the agricultural producers. Results from a case study of the Maumee River basin show that coordinated BMP implementation across upstream and downstream watersheds can significantly improve cost efficiency of TP load abatement.

Advanced Methodologies in Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling of Managed Lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.

Physics-Based Modeling of Power System Components for the Evaluation of Low-Frequency Radiated Electromagnetic Fields

The low-frequency electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) is an increasingly important aspect in the design of practical systems to ensure the functional safety and reliability of complex products. The opportunities for using numerical techniques to predict and analyze system’s EMC are therefore of considerable interest in many industries. As the first phase of study, a proper model, including all the details of the component, was required. Therefore, the advances in EMC modeling were studied with classifying analytical and numerical models. The selected model was finite element (FE) modeling, coupled with the distributed network method, to generate the model of the converter’s components and obtain the frequency behavioral model of the converter. The method has the ability to reveal the behavior of parasitic elements and higher resonances, which have critical impacts in studying EMI problems. For the EMC and signature studies of the machine drives, the equivalent source modeling was studied. Considering the details of the multi-machine environment, including actual models, some innovation in equivalent source modeling was performed to decrease the simulation time dramatically. Several models were designed in this study and the voltage current cube model and wire model have the best result. The GA-based PSO method is used as the optimization process. Superposition and suppression of the fields in coupling the components were also studied and verified. The simulation time of the equivalent model is 80-100 times lower than the detailed model. All tests were verified experimentally. As the application of EMC and signature study, the fault diagnosis and condition monitoring of an induction motor drive was developed using radiated fields. In addition to experimental tests, the 3DFE analysis was coupled with circuit-based software to implement the incipient fault cases. The identification was implemented using ANN for seventy various faulty cases. The simulation results were verified experimentally. Finally, the identification of the types of power components were implemented. The results show that it is possible to identify the type of components, as well as the faulty components, by comparing the amplitudes of their stray field harmonics. The identification using the stray fields is nondestructive and can be used for the setups that cannot go offline and be dismantled

Layered Information Modeling and a Knowledge Organization Paradigm: Inherent Classification and the Design of Interoperable Systems

In knowledge technology work, as expressed by the scope of this conference, there are a number of communities, each uncovering new methods, theories, and practices. The Library and Information Science (LIS) community is one such community. This community, through tradition and innovation, theories and practice, organizes knowledge and develops knowledge technologies formed by iterative research hewn to the values of equal access and discovery for all. The Information Modeling community is another contributor to knowledge technologies. It concerns itself with the construction of symbolic models that capture the meaning of information and organize it in ways that are computer-based, but human understandable. A recent paper that examines certain assumptions in information modeling builds a bridge between these two communities, offering a forum for a discussion on common aims from a common perspective. In a June 2000 article, Parsons and Wand separate classes from instances in information modeling in order to free instances from what they call the “tyranny” of classes. They attribute a number of problems in information modeling to inherent classification – or the disregard for the fact that instances can be conceptualized independent of any class assignment. By faceting instances from classes, Parsons and Wand strike a sonorous chord with classification theory as understood in LIS. In the practice community and in the publications of LIS, faceted classification has shifted the paradigm of knowledge organization theory in the twentieth century. Here, with the proposal of inherent classification and the resulting layered information modeling, a clear line joins both the LIS classification theory community and the information modeling community. Both communities have their eyes turned toward networked resource discovery, and with this conceptual conjunction a new paradigmatic conversation can take place. Parsons and Wand propose that the layered information model can facilitate schema integration, schema evolution, and interoperability. These three spheres in information modeling have their own connotation, but are not distant from the aims of classification research in LIS. In this new conceptual conjunction, established by Parsons and Ward, information modeling through the layered information model, can expand the horizons of classification theory beyond LIS, promoting a cross-fertilization of ideas on the interoperability of subject access tools like classification schemes, thesauri, taxonomies, and ontologies. This paper examines the common ground between the layered information model and faceted classification, establishing a vocabulary and outlining some common principles. It then turns to the issue of schema and the horizons of conventional classification and the differences between Information Modeling and Library and Information Science. Finally, a framework is proposed that deploys an interpretation of the layered information modeling approach in a knowledge technologies context. In order to design subject access systems that will integrate, evolve and interoperate in a networked environment, knowledge organization specialists must consider a semantic class independence like Parsons and Wand propose for information modeling.

A complexity-based diagnostic on the democratic unity roundtable mud: problems and alternatives (2008-2016)

Este trabajo exploratorio estudia al movimiento político Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD), creada con el fin de oponerse la Gobierno socialista existente en venezuela. La crítica que este documento realiza, parte desde el punto de vista de la Ciencia de la Complejidad. Algunos conceptos clave de sistemas complejos han sido utilizados para explicar el funcionamiento y organización de la MUD, esto con el objetivo de generar un diagnóstico integral de los problemas que enfrenta, y evidenciar las nuevas percepciones sobre comportamientos perjudiciales que el partido tiene actualmente. Con el enfoque de la complejidad se pretende ayudar a comprender mejor el contexto que enmarca al partido y, para, finalmente aportar una serie de soluciones a los problemas de cohesión que presen

Distinguishing the distributions of two cryptic frogs (Anura: Discoglossidae) using molecular data and environmental modeling

Currently, the identification of two cryptic Iberian amphibians, Discoglossus galganoi Capula, Nascetti, Lanza, Bullini and Crespo, 1985 and Discoglossus jeanneae Busack, 1986, relies on molecular characterization. To provide a means to discern the distributions of these species, we used 385-base-pair sequences of the cytochrome b gene to identify 54 Spanish populations of Discoglossus. These data and a series of environmental variables were used to build up a logistic regression model capable of probabilistically designating a specimen of Discoglossus found in any Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid cell of 10 km × 10 km to one of the two species. Western longitudes, wide river basins, and semipermeable (mainly siliceous) and sandstone substrates favored the presence of D. galganoi, while eastern longitudes, mountainous areas, severe floodings, and impermeable (mainly clay) or basic (limestone and gypsum) substrates favored D. jeanneae. Fifteen percent of the UTM cells were predicted to be shared by both species, whereas 51% were clearly in favor of D. galganoi and 34% were in favor of D. jeanneae, considering odds of 4:1. These results suggest that these two species have parapatric distributions and allow for preliminary identification of potential secondary contact areas. The method applied here can be generalized and used for other geographic problems posed by cryptic species.

Evolutionary algorithms for the modeling of bioreactors

This work aims to study the application of Genetic Algorithms in anaerobic digestion modeling, in particular when using dynamical models. Along the work, different types of bioreactors are shown, such as batch, semi-batch and continuous, as well as their mathematical modeling. The work intendeds to estimate the parameter values of two biological reaction model. For that, simulated results, where only one output variable, the produced biogas, is known, are fitted to the model results. For this reason, the problems associated with reverse optimization are studied, using some graphics that provide clues to the sensitivity and identifiability associated with the problem. Particular solutions obtained by the identifiability analysis using GENSSI and DAISY softwares are also presented. Finally, the optimization is performed using genetic algorithms. During this optimization the need to improve the convergence of genetic algorithms was felt. This need has led to the development of an adaptation of the genetic algorithms, which we called Neighbored Genetic Algorithms (NGA1 and NGA2). In order to understand if this new approach overcomes the Basic Genetic Algorithms (BGA) and achieves the proposed goals, a study of 100 full optimization runs for each situation was further developed. Results show that NGA1 and NGA2 are statistically better than BGA. However, because it was not possible to obtain consistent results, the Nealder-Mead method was used, where the initial guesses were the estimated results from GA; Algoritmos Evolucionários para a Modelação de Bioreactores Resumo: Neste trabalho procura-se estudar os algoritmos genéticos com aplicação na modelação da digestão anaeróbia e, em particular, quando se utilizam modelos dinâmicos. Ao longo do mesmo, são apresentados diferentes tipos de bioreactores, como os batch, semi-batch e contínuos, bem como a modelação matemática dos mesmos. Neste trabalho procurou-se estimar o valor dos parâmetros que constam num modelo de digestão anaeróbia para o ajustar a uma situação simulada onde apenas se conhece uma variável de output, o biogas produzido. São ainda estudados os problemas associados à optimização inversa com recurso a alguns gráficos que fornecem pistas sobre a sensibilidade e identifiacabilidade associadas ao problema da modelação da digestão anaeróbia. São ainda apresentadas soluções particulares de idenficabilidade obtidas através dos softwares GENSSI e DAISY. Finalmente é realizada a optimização do modelo com recurso aos algoritmos genéticos. No decorrer dessa optimização sentiu-se a necessidade de melhorar a convergência e, portanto, desenvolveu-se ainda uma adaptação dos algoritmos genéticos a que se deu o nome de Neighboured Genetic Algorithms (NGA1 e NGA2). No sentido de se compreender se as adaptações permitiam superar os algoritmos genéticos básicos e atingir as metas propostas, foi ainda desenvolvido um estudo em que o processo de optimização foi realizado 100 vezes para cada um dos métodos, o que permitiu concluir, estatisticamente, que os BGA foram superados pelos NGA1 e NGA2. Ainda assim, porque não foi possivel obter consistência nos resultados, foi usado o método de Nealder-Mead utilizado como estimativa inicial os resultados obtidos pelos algoritmos genéticos.

Development of a numerical platform for the modeling and optimal control of liquid metal flows

The main purpose of this work is to develop a numerical platform for the turbulence modeling and optimal control of liquid metal flows. Thanks to their interesting thermal properties, liquid metals are widely studied as coolants for heat transfer applications in the nuclear context. However, due to their low Prandtl numbers, the standard turbulence models commonly used for coolants as air or water are inadequate. Advanced turbulence models able to capture the anisotropy in the flow and heat transfer are then necessary. In this thesis, a new anisotropic four-parameter turbulence model is presented and validated. The proposed model is based on explicit algebraic models and solves four additional transport equations for dynamical and thermal turbulent variables. For the validation of the model, several flow configurations are considered for different Reynolds and Prandtl numbers, namely fully developed flows in a plane channel and cylindrical pipe, and forced and mixed convection in a backward-facing step geometry. Since buoyancy effects cannot be neglected in liquid metals-cooled fast reactors, the second aim of this work is to provide mathematical and numerical tools for the simulation and optimization of liquid metals in mixed and natural convection. Optimal control problems for turbulent buoyant flows are studied and analyzed with the Lagrange multipliers method. Numerical algorithms for optimal control problems are integrated into the numerical platform and several simulations are performed to show the robustness, consistency, and feasibility of the method.

The Crystal-t Algorithm: A New Approach To Calculate The Sle Of Lipidic Mixtures Presenting Solid Solutions.

Lipidic mixtures present a particular phase change profile highly affected by their unique crystalline structure. However, classical solid-liquid equilibrium (SLE) thermodynamic modeling approaches, which assume the solid phase to be a pure component, sometimes fail in the correct description of the phase behavior. In addition, their inability increases with the complexity of the system. To overcome some of these problems, this study describes a new procedure to depict the SLE of fatty binary mixtures presenting solid solutions, namely the Crystal-T algorithm. Considering the non-ideality of both liquid and solid phases, this algorithm is aimed at the determination of the temperature in which the first and last crystal of the mixture melts. The evaluation is focused on experimental data measured and reported in this work for systems composed of triacylglycerols and fatty alcohols. The liquidus and solidus lines of the SLE phase diagrams were described by using excess Gibbs energy based equations, and the group contribution UNIFAC model for the calculation of the activity coefficients of both liquid and solid phases. Very low deviations of theoretical and experimental data evidenced the strength of the algorithm, contributing to the enlargement of the scope of the SLE modeling.

Impact Of Pharmacist Interventions On Drug-related Problems And Laboratory Markers In Outpatients With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection.

Substantial complexity has been introduced into treatment regimens for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Many drug-related problems (DRPs) are detected in these patients, such as low adherence, therapeutic inefficacy, and safety issues. We evaluated the impact of pharmacist interventions on CD4+ T-lymphocyte count, HIV viral load, and DRPs in patients with HIV infection. In this 18-month prospective controlled study, 90 outpatients were selected by convenience sampling from the Hospital Dia-University of Campinas Teaching Hospital (Brazil). Forty-five patients comprised the pharmacist intervention group and 45 the control group; all patients had HIV infection with or without acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. Pharmaceutical appointments were conducted based on the Pharmacotherapy Workup method, although DRPs and pharmacist intervention classifications were modified for applicability to institutional service limitations and research requirements. Pharmacist interventions were performed immediately after detection of DRPs. The main outcome measures were DRPs, CD4+ T-lymphocyte count, and HIV viral load. After pharmacist intervention, DRPs decreased from 5.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] =4.1-6.2) to 4.2 (95% CI =3.3-5.1) per patient (P=0.043). A total of 122 pharmacist interventions were proposed, with an average of 2.7 interventions per patient. All the pharmacist interventions were accepted by physicians, and among patients, the interventions were well accepted during the appointments, but compliance with the interventions was not measured. A statistically significant increase in CD4+ T-lymphocyte count in the intervention group was found (260.7 cells/mm(3) [95% CI =175.8-345.6] to 312.0 cells/mm(3) [95% CI =23.5-40.6], P=0.015), which was not observed in the control group. There was no statistical difference between the groups regarding HIV viral load. This study suggests that pharmacist interventions in patients with HIV infection can cause an increase in CD4+ T-lymphocyte counts and a decrease in DRPs, demonstrating the importance of an optimal pharmaceutical care plan.

Variability Modeling Of Rainfall, Deforestation, And Incidence Of American Tegumentary Leishmaniasis In Orán, Argentina, 1985-2007.

American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL) is a disease transmitted to humans by the female sandflies of the genus Lutzomyia. Several factors are involved in the disease transmission cycle. In this work only rainfall and deforestation were considered to assess the variability in the incidence of ATL. In order to reach this goal, monthly recorded data of the incidence of ATL in Orán, Salta, Argentina, were used, in the period 1985-2007. The square root of the relative incidence of ATL and the corresponding variance were formulated as time series, and these data were smoothed by moving averages of 12 and 24 months, respectively. The same procedure was applied to the rainfall data. Typical months, which are April, August, and December, were found and allowed us to describe the dynamical behavior of ATL outbreaks. These results were tested at 95% confidence level. We concluded that the variability of rainfall would not be enough to justify the epidemic outbreaks of ATL in the period 1997-2000, but it consistently explains the situation observed in the years 2002 and 2004. Deforestation activities occurred in this region could explain epidemic peaks observed in both years and also during the entire time of observation except in 2005-2007.