Sustainable infrastructure project planning : progress in contemporary decision support tools

Most infrastructure project developments are complex in nature, particularly in the planning phase. During this stage, many vague alternatives are tabled - from the strategic to operational level. Human judgement and decision making are characterised by biases, errors and the use of heuristics. These factors are intangible and hard to measure because they are subjective and qualitative in nature. The problem with human judgement becomes more complex when a group of people are involved. The variety of different stakeholders may cause conflict due to differences in personal judgements. Hence, the available alternatives increase the complexities of the decision making process. Therefore, it is desirable to find ways of enhancing the efficiency of decision making to avoid misunderstandings and conflict within organisations. As a result, numerous attempts have been made to solve problems in this area by leveraging technologies such as decision support systems. However, most construction project management decision support systems only concentrate on model development and neglect fundamentals of computing such as requirement engineering, data communication, data management and human centred computing. Thus, decision support systems are complicated and are less efficient in supporting the decision making of project team members. It is desirable for decision support systems to be simpler, to provide a better collaborative platform, to allow for efficient data manipulation, and to adequately reflect user needs. In this chapter, a framework for a more desirable decision support system environment is presented. Some key issues related to decision support system implementation are also described.

Passenger flow and station facilities modelling for metro station layout design

This paper presents the simulation model development of passenger flow in a metro station. The model allows studies of passenger flow in stations with different layouts and facilities, thus providing valuable information, such as passenger flow and density of passenger at critical locations and passenger-handling facilities within a station, to the operators. The adoption of the concept of Petri nets in the simulation model is discussed. Examples are provided to demonstrate its application to passenger flow analysis, train scheduling and the testing of alternative station layouts.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

IT governance adoption in Malaysia : a preliminary investigation

IT Governance (ITG) adoption remains a relevant topic of study. While extensive research has been done looking into the drivers and critical success factors of ITG practice, there seems to be a lack of interest in identifying the barriers to its adoption. This study reports on a survey conducted to first: provide some primary data that suggest ITG adoption and maturity levels are still low, especially in a developing country like Malaysia; and second: to provide initial empirical support for model development. Results obtained supported our assumptions that: (1) ITG adoption and maturity levels are still relatively low in Malaysia, therefore justifying Malaysia as a suitable case; (2) organizational factors, environmental factors and characteristics of the innovation as identified from the literature may serve as possible barriers to adoption.

A new approach for trip generation estimation for use in traffic impact assessments

Findings from an online survey conducted by Queensland University of Technology (QUT) shows that Australia is suffering from a lack of data reflecting trip generation for use in Traffic Impact Assessments (TIAs). Current independent variables for trip generation estimation are not able to create robust outcomes as well. It is also challenging to account for the impact of the new development on public and active transport as well as the effect of trip chaining behaviour in Australian TIA studies. With this background in mind, research is being implemented by QUT to find a new approach developing a combined model of trip generation and mode choice with consideration of trip chaining effects. It is expected that the model will provide transferable outcomes as it is developed based on socio-demographic parameters. Child Care Centres within the Brisbane area have been nominated for model development. At the time, the project is in the data collection phase. Findings from the pilot survey associated with capturing trip chaining and mode choice information reveal that applying questionnaire is able to capture required information in an acceptable level. The result also reveals that several centres within an area should be surveyed in order to provide sufficient data for trip chaining and modal split analysis.

Impact fees and new housing cost: A comparative analysis of the empirical models

Developers and policy makers are consistently at odds over the debate as to whether impact fees increase house prices. This debate continues despite the extensive body of theoretical and empirical international literature that discusses the passing on to home buyers of impact fees, and the corresponding increase to housing prices. In attempting to quantify this impact, over a dozen empirical studies have been carried out in the US and Canada since the 1980’s. However the methodologies used vary greatly, as do the results. Despite similar infrastructure funding policies in numerous developed countries, no such empirical works exist outside of the US/Canada. The purpose of this research is to analyse the existing econometric models in order to identify, compare and contrast the theoretical bases, methodologies, key assumptions and findings of each. This research will assist in identifying if further model development is required and/or whether any of these models have external validity and are readily transferable outside of the US. The findings conclude that there is very little explicit rationale behind the various model selections and that significant model deficiencies appear still to exist.

Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND) : case of Bangkok metropolitan region (BMR), Thailand an eco-efficiency modelling approach

Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) is the centre for various major activities in Thailand including political, industry, agriculture, and commerce. Consequently, the BMR is the highest and most densely populated area in Thailand. Thus, the demand for houses in the BMR is also the largest, especially in subdivision developments. For these reasons, the subdivision development in the BMR has increased substantially in the past 20 years and generated large numbers of subdivision developments (AREA, 2009; Kridakorn Na Ayutthaya & Tochaiwat, 2010). However, this dramatic growth of subdivision development has caused several problems including unsustainable development, especially for subdivision neighbourhoods, in the BMR. There have been rating tools that encourage the sustainability of neighbourhood design in subdivision development, but they still have practical problems. Such rating tools do not cover the scale of the development entirely; and they concentrate more on the social and environmental conservation aspects, which have not been totally accepted by the developers (Boonprakub, 2011; Tongcumpou & Harvey, 1994). These factors strongly confirm the need for an appropriate rating tool for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design in the BMR. To improve level of acceptance from all stakeholders in subdivision developments industry, the new rating tool should be developed based on an approach that unites the social, environmental, and economic approaches, such as eco-efficiency principle. Eco-efficiency is the sustainability indicator introduced by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) since 1992. The eco-efficiency is defined as the ratio of the product or service value according to its environmental impact (Lehni & Pepper, 2000; Sorvari et al., 2009). Eco-efficiency indicator is concerned to the business, while simultaneously, is concerned with to social and the environment impact. This study aims to develop a new rating tool named "Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND)". The RSSND methodology is developed by a combination of literature reviews, field surveys, the eco-efficiency model development, trial-and-error technique, and the tool validation process. All required data has been collected by the field surveys from July to November 2010. The ecoefficiency model is a combination of three different mathematical models; the neighbourhood property price (NPP) model, the neighbourhood development cost (NDC) model, and the neighbourhood occupancy cost (NOC) model which are attributable to the neighbourhood subdivision design. The NPP model is formulated by hedonic price model approach, while the NDC model and NOC model are formulated by the multiple regression analysis approach. The trial-and-error technique is adopted for simplifying the complex mathematic eco-efficiency model to a user-friendly rating tool format. Credibility of the RSSND has been validated by using both rated and non-rated of eight subdivisions. It is expected to meet the requirements of all stakeholders which support the social activities of the residents, maintain the environmental condition of the development and surrounding areas, and meet the economic requirements of the developers.

Strategic IMC : from abstract concept to marketing management tool

Although integrated marketing communication (IMC) has progressed towards midrange maturity level, its full-scale adoption has been impeded by a lack of consensus on its defining constructs. The purpose of this study is to move from abstraction to define the construct of strategic integration (SI) and develop this into a management tool, thus making an important contribution to both the theory and practice of IMC. Drawing from both IMC and strategic management literature, the construct of SI is operationalised into a number of key factors and a well-cited management model, Fuchs’ ‘integration valuator’ is explored as the starting point of a measurement tool for IMC. To do this, a Delphi study invites the scrutiny of an expert panel of world-leading IMC researchers and practitioners. The panel validated the model construction process,redefined overarching constructs and key factors with a high degree of consensus, supported a process measure, suggested a weighted evaluation measure and recognised the importance of developing such a measure. They delivered clear and consistent imperatives guiding model development. The result is a measure of SI that evaluates organisational proficiency and diagnoses the integration of IMC campaigns. It also advances theory by providing a better understanding of the construct of SI.

STI-GMaS : an open-source environment for simulation of sexually-transmitted infections

Background Sexually-transmitted pathogens often have severe reproductive health implications if treatment is delayed or absent, especially in females. The complex processes of disease progression, namely replication and ascension of the infection through the genital tract, span both extracellular and intracellular physiological scales, and in females can vary over the distinct phases of the menstrual cycle. The complexity of these processes, coupled with the common impossibility of obtaining comprehensive and sequential clinical data from individual human patients, makes mathematical and computational modelling valuable tools in developing our understanding of the infection, with a view to identifying new interventions. While many within-host models of sexually-transmitted infections (STIs) are available in existing literature, these models are difficult to deploy in clinical/experimental settings since simulations often require complex computational approaches. Results We present STI-GMaS (Sexually-Transmitted Infections – Graphical Modelling and Simulation), an environment for simulation of STI models, with a view to stimulating the uptake of these models within the laboratory or clinic. The software currently focuses upon the representative case-study of Chlamydia trachomatis, the most common sexually-transmitted bacterial pathogen of humans. Here, we demonstrate the use of a hybrid PDE–cellular automata model for simulation of a hypothetical Chlamydia vaccination, demonstrating the effect of a vaccine-induced antibody in preventing the infection from ascending to above the cervix. This example illustrates the ease with which existing models can be adapted to describe new studies, and its careful parameterisation within STI-GMaS facilitates future tuning to experimental data as they arise. Conclusions STI-GMaS represents the first software designed explicitly for in-silico simulation of STI models by non-theoreticians, thus presenting a novel route to bridging the gap between computational and clinical/experimental disciplines. With the propensity for model reuse and extension, there is much scope within STI-GMaS to allow clinical and experimental studies to inform model inputs and drive future model development. Many of the modelling paradigms and software design principles deployed to date transfer readily to other STIs, both bacterial and viral; forthcoming releases of STI-GMaS will extend the software to incorporate a more diverse range of infections.

Reducing building information fragmentation : a BIM-specifications approach

The world of Construction is changing, so too are the expectations of stakeholders regarding strategies for adapting existing resources (people, equipment and finances), processes and tools to the evolving needs of the industry. Building Information Modelling (BIM) is a data-rich, digital approach for representing building information required for design and construction. BIM tools play a crucial role and are instrumental to current approaches, by industry stakeholders, aimed at harnessing the power of a single information repository for improved project delivery and maintenance. Yet, building specifications - which document information on material quality, and workmanship requirements - remain distinctly separate from model information typically represented in BIM models. BIM adoption for building design, construction and maintenance is an industry-wide strategy aimed at addressing such concerns about information fragmentation. However, to effectively reduce inefficiencies due to fragmentation, BIM models require crucial building information contained in specifications. This paper profiles some specification tools which have been used in industry as a means of bridging the BIM-Specifications divide. We analyse the distinction between current attempts at integrating BIM and specifications and our approach which utilizes rich specification information embedded within objects in a product library as a method for improving the quality of information contained in BIM objects at various levels of model development.

A critical review of structural equation modeling applications in construction research

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a versatile multivariate statistical technique, and applications have been increasing since its introduction in the 1980s. This paper provides a critical review of 84 articles involving the use of SEM to address construction related problems over the period 1998–2012 including, but not limited to, seven top construction research journals. After conducting a yearly publication trend analysis, it is found that SEM applications have been accelerating over time. However, there are inconsistencies in the various recorded applications and several recurring problems exist. The important issues that need to be considered are examined in research design, model development and model evaluation and are discussed in detail with reference to current applications. A particularly important issue concerns the construct validity. Relevant topics for efficient research design also include longitudinal or cross-sectional studies, mediation and moderation effects, sample size issues and software selection. A guideline framework is provided to help future researchers in construction SEM applications.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence : systematic review and meta-analysis

A systematic literature review and a comprehensive meta-analysis that combines the findings from existing studies, was conducted in this thesis to analyse the impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the quality, publication bias and outlier bias of the various studies, and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were considered. Based on this comprehensive and systematic review, and the results of the subsequent meta-analysis, major issues in study design, traffic and crash data, and model development and evaluation are discussed.

Transport and health in China : recent collaborative research relating to vehicle factors and pollution

The nature of the transport system contributes to public health outcomes in a range of ways. The clearest contribution to public health is in the area of traffic crashes, because of their direct impact on individual death and disability and their direct costs to the health system. Other papers in this conference address these issues. This paper outlines some collaborative research between the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland (CARRS-Q) at QUT and Chinese researchers in areas that have indirect health impacts. Heavy vehicle dynamics: The integrity of the road surface influences crash risk, with ruts, pot-holes and other forms of road damage contributing to increased crash risks. The great majority of damage to the road surface from vehicles is caused by heavy trucks and buses, rather than cars or smaller vehicles. In some cases this damage is due to deliberate overloading, but in other cases it is due to vehicle suspension characteristics that lead to occasional high loads on particular wheels. Together with a visiting researcher and his colleagues, we have used both Queensland and Chinese data to model vehicle suspension systems that reduce the level of load, and hence the level of road damage and resulting crash risk(1-5). Toll worker exposure to vehicle emissions: The increasing construction of highways in China has also involved construction of a large number of toll roads. Tollbooth workers are potentially exposed to high levels of pollutants from vehicles, however the extent of this exposure and how it relates to standards for exposure are not well known. In a study led by a visiting researcher, we conducted a study to model these levels of exposure for a tollbooth in China(6). Noise pollution: The increasing presence of high speed roads in China has contributed to an increase in noise levels. In this collaborative study we modelled noise levels associated with a freeway widening near a university campus, and measures to reduce the noise(7). Along with these areas of research, there are many other areas of transport with health implications that are worthy of exploration. Traffic, noise and pollution contribute to a difficult environment for pedestrians, especially in an ageing society where there are health benefits to increasing physical activity. By building on collaborations such as those outlined, there is potential for a contribution to improved public health by addressing transport issues such as vehicle factors and pollution, and extending the research to other areas of travel activity. 1. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2014). Stiffness-damping matching method of an ECAS system based on LQG control. Journal of Central South University, 21:439-446. DOI: 10.1007/s1177101419579 2. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Feng, Z. and Chang, W. (2013). Comparison of two suspension control strategies for multi-axle heavy truck. Journal of Central South University, 20(2): 550-562. 3. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Effect of driving conditions and suspension parameters on dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Science China Technological Sciences, 56(3): 666-676. DOI: 10.1007/s11431-012-5091-3 4. Chen, Y., He., J., King, M., Chen, W. and Zhang, W. (2013). Model development and dynamic load-sharing analysis of longitudinal-connected air suspensions. Strojniški Vestnik - Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 59(1):14-24. 5. Chen, Y., He, J., King, M., Liu, H. and Zhang, W. (2013). Dynamic load-sharing of longitudinal-connected air suspensions of a tri-axle semi-trailer. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-1117. 6. He, J., Qi, Z., Hang, W., King, M., and Zhao, C. (2011). Numerical evaluation of pollutant dispersion at a toll plaza based on system dynamics and Computational Fluid Dynamics models. Transportation Research Part C, 19(2011):510-520. 7. Zhang, C., He, J., Wang, Z., Yin, R. and King, M. (2013). Assessment of traffic noise level before and after freeway widening using traffic microsimulation and a refined classic noise prediction method. Proceedings of Transportation Research Board Annual Conference, Washington DC, 13-17 January 2013, paper no. 13-2016.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The development of methods for real-time crash prediction as a function of current or recent traffic and roadway conditions is gaining increasing attention in the literature. Numerous studies have modeled the relationships between traffic characteristics and crash occurrence, and significant progress has been made. Given the accumulated evidence on this topic and the lack of an articulate summary of research status, challenges, and opportunities, there is an urgent need to scientifically review these studies and to synthesize the existing state-of-the-art knowledge. This paper addresses this need by undertaking a systematic literature review to identify current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities, and then conducts a meta-analysis of existing studies to provide a summary impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess quality, publication bias, and outlier bias of the various studies; and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were also considered. As a result of this comprehensive and systematic review, issues in study designs, traffic and crash data, and model development and validation are discussed. Outcomes of this study are intended to provide researchers focused on real-time crash prediction with greater insight into the modeling of this important but extremely challenging safety issue.

Prevention of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention - emphasis on dietary composition and identification of high-risk individuals

Type 2 diabetes is an increasing, serious, and costly public health problem. The increase in the prevalence of the disease can mainly be attributed to changing lifestyles leading to physical inactivity, overweight, and obesity. These lifestyle-related risk factors offer also a possibility for preventive interventions. Until recently, proper evidence regarding the prevention of type 2 diabetes has been virtually missing. To be cost-effective, intensive interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes should be directed to people at an increased risk of the disease. The aim of this series of studies was to investigate whether type 2 diabetes can be prevented by lifestyle intervention in high-risk individuals, and to develop a practical method to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes and would benefit from such an intervention. To study the effect of lifestyle intervention on diabetes risk, we recruited 522 volunteer, middle-aged (aged 40 - 64 at baseline), overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) men (n = 172) and women (n = 350) with impaired glucose tolerance to the Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS). The participants were randomly allocated either to the intensive lifestyle intervention group or the control group. The control group received general dietary and exercise advice at baseline, and had annual physician's examination. The participants in the intervention group received, in addition, individualised dietary counselling by a nutritionist. They were also offered circuit-type resistance training sessions and were advised to increase overall physical activity. The intervention goals were to reduce body weight (5% or more reduction from baseline weight), limit dietary fat (< 30% of total energy consumed) and saturated fat (< 10% of total energy consumed), and to increase dietary fibre intake (15 g / 1000 kcal or more) and physical activity (≥ 30 minutes/day). Diabetes status was assessed annually by a repeated 75 g oral glucose tolerance testing. First analysis on end-points was completed after a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, and the intervention phase was terminated after a mean duration of 3.9 years. After that, the study participants continued to visit the study clinics for the annual examinations, for a mean of 3 years. The intervention group showed significantly greater improvement in each intervention goal. After 1 and 3 years, mean weight reductions were 4.5 and 3.5 kg in the intervention group and 1.0 kg and 0.9 kg in the control group. Cardiovascular risk factors improved more in the intervention group. After a mean follow-up of 3.2 years, the risk of diabetes was reduced by 58% in the intervention group compared with the control group. The reduction in the incidence of diabetes was directly associated with achieved lifestyle goals. Furthermore, those who consumed moderate-fat, high-fibre diet achieved the largest weight reduction and, even after adjustment for weight reduction, the lowest diabetes risk during the intervention period. After discontinuation of the counselling, the differences in lifestyle variables between the groups still remained favourable for the intervention group. During the post-intervention follow-up period of 3 years, the risk of diabetes was still 36% lower among the former intervention group participants, compared with the former control group participants. To develop a simple screening tool to identify individuals who are at high risk of type 2 diabetes, follow-up data of two population-based cohorts of 35-64 year old men and women was used. The National FINRISK Study 1987 cohort (model development data) included 4435 subjects, with 182 new drug-treated cases of diabetes identified during ten years, and the FINRISK Study 1992 cohort (model validation data) included 4615 subjects, with 67 new cases of drug-treated diabetes during five years, ascertained using the Social Insurance Institution's Drug register. Baseline age, body mass index, waist circumference, history of antihypertensive drug treatment and high blood glucose, physical activity and daily consumption of fruits, berries or vegetables were selected into the risk score as categorical variables. In the 1987 cohort the optimal cut-off point of the risk score identified 78% of those who got diabetes during the follow-up (= sensitivity of the test) and 77% of those who remained free of diabetes (= specificity of the test). In the 1992 cohort the risk score performed equally well. The final Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) form includes, in addition to the predictors of the model, a question about family history of diabetes and the age category of over 64 years. When applied to the DPS population, the baseline FINDRISC value was associated with diabetes risk among the control group participants only, indicating that the intensive lifestyle intervention given to the intervention group participants abolished the diabetes risk associated with baseline risk factors. In conclusion, the intensive lifestyle intervention produced long-term beneficial changes in diet, physical activity, body weight, and cardiovascular risk factors, and reduced diabetes risk. Furthermore, the effects of the intervention were sustained after the intervention was discontinued. The FINDRISC proved to be a simple, fast, inexpensive, non-invasive, and reliable tool to identify individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes. The use of FINDRISC to identify high-risk subjects, followed by lifestyle intervention, provides a feasible scheme in preventing type 2 diabetes, which could be implemented in the primary health care system.