Análise da transição entre dias secos e chuvosos por meio da cadeia de Markov de terceira ordem

O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar se as ocorrências de dias secos e chuvosos são condicionalmente dependentes da seqüência dos três dias secos e chuvosos anteriores, numa zona pluviometricamente homogênea, por meio da cadeia não-homogênea de Markov de terceira ordem. Os resultados mostraram que as probabilidades diárias de transição podem ser adequadamente estimadas, com base em dados agregados bimestralmente, seguidas de interpolação por meio de funções sinusoidais. Além disso, evidenciou-se que, naquela zona, as ocorrências diárias de chuva são condicionalmente dependentes da seqüência de dias secos e chuvosos nos três dias anteriores. A cadeia não-homogênea de Markov de terceira ordem é um importante instrumento para a análise da dependência entre as seqüências de dias secos e chuvosos em determinadas regiões.

Simulit, un modèle de simulation pour la planification hospitalière. [Simulit, a simulation model for hospital planning].

The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inversion of time-lapse cross hole ground-penetrating radar data to characterize the vadose zone at the Arrenaes field site, Denmark

The ground-penetrating radar (GPR) geophysical method has the potential to provide valuable information on the hydraulic properties of the vadose zone because of its strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR traveltime data can allow for a significant reduction in uncertainty regarding subsurface van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters. Much of the previous work on the stochastic estimation of VGM parameters from crosshole GPR data has considered the case of steady-state infiltration conditions, which represent only a small fraction of practically relevant scenarios. We explored in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically examining to what extent time-lapse crosshole GPR traveltimes, measured during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arreneas field site in Denmark, could help to quantify VGM parameters and their uncertainties in a layered medium, as well as the corresponding soil hydraulic properties. We used a Bayesian Markov-chain-Monte-Carlo inversion approach. We first explored the advantages and limitations of this approach with regard to a realistic synthetic example before applying it to field measurements. In our analysis, we also considered different degrees of prior information. Our findings indicate that the stochastic inversion of the time-lapse GPR data does indeed allow for a substantial refinement in the inferred posterior VGM parameter distributions compared with the corresponding priors, which in turn significantly improves knowledge of soil hydraulic properties. Overall, the results obtained clearly demonstrate the value of the information contained in time-lapse GPR data for characterizing vadose zone dynamics.

On the convergence of EM-like algorithms for image segmentation using Markov random fields.

Inference of Markov random field images segmentation models is usually performed using iterative methods which adapt the well-known expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for independent mixture models. However, some of these adaptations are ad hoc and may turn out numerically unstable. In this paper, we review three EM-like variants for Markov random field segmentation and compare their convergence properties both at the theoretical and practical levels. We specifically advocate a numerical scheme involving asynchronous voxel updating, for which general convergence results can be established. Our experiments on brain tissue classification in magnetic resonance images provide evidence that this algorithm may achieve significantly faster convergence than its competitors while yielding at least as good segmentation results.