A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

Effect of argon purity on mechanical properties, microstructure and fracture mode of commercially pure (cp) Ti and Ti-6Al-4V alloys for ceramometal dental prostheses

Provision of an inert gas atmosphere with high-purity argon gas is recommended for preventing titanium castings from contamination although the effects of the level of argon purity on the mechanical properties and the clinical performance of Ti castings have not yet been investigated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of argon purity on the mechanical properties and microstructure of commercially pure (cp) Ti and Ti-6Al-4V alloys. The castings were made using either high-purity and/or industrial argon gas. The ultimate tensile strength (UTS), proportional limit (PL), elongation (EL) and microhardness (VHN) at different depths were evaluated. The microstructure of the alloys was also revealed and the fracture mode was analyzed by scanning electron microscopy. The data from the mechanical tests and hardness were subjected to a two-and three-way ANOVA and Tukey`s test (alpha = 0.05). The mean values of mechanical properties were not affected by the argon gas purity. Higher UTS, PL and VHN, and lower EL were observed for Ti-6Al-4V. The microhardness was not influenced by the argon gas purity. The industrial argon gas can be used to cast cp Ti and Ti-6Al-4V.

Effect of the microstructure on the lifetime of dental ceramics

Objectives. To evaluate the effect of the microstructure on the Weibull and slow crack growth (SCG) parameters and on the lifetime of three ceramics used as framework materials for fixed partial dentures (FPDs) (YZ - Vita In-Ceram YZ; IZ - Vita In-Ceram Zirconia; AL - Vita In-Ceram AL) and of two veneering porcelains (VM7 and VM9). Methods. Bar-shaped specimens were fabricated according to the manufacturer`s instructions. Specimens were tested in three-point flexure in 37 degrees C artificial saliva. Weibull analysis (n = 30) and a constant stress-rate test (n = 10) were used to determine the Weibull modulus (m) and SCG coefficient (n), respectively. Microstructural and fractographic analyzes were performed using SEM. ANOVA and Tukey`s test (alpha = 0.05) were used to statistically analyze data obtained with both microstructural and fractographic analyzes. Results. YZ and AL presented high crystalline content and low porosity (0.1-0.2%). YZ had the highest characteristic strength (sigma(0)) value (911 MPa) followed by AL (488 MPa) and IZ (423 MPa). Lower sigma(0) values were observed for the porcelains (68-75 MPa). Except for IZ and VM7, m values were similar among the ceramic materials. Higher n values were found for YZ (76) and AL (72), followed by IZ (54) and the veneering materials (36-44). Lifetime predictions showed that YZ was the material with the best mechanical performance. The size of the critical flaw was similar among the framework materials (34-48 mu m) and among the porcelains (75-86 mu m). Significance. The microstructure influenced the mechanical and SCG behavior of the studied materials and, consequently, the lifetime predictions. (C) 2011 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Test Environment and Microstructure on the Flexural Strength of Dental Porcelains

Purpose: The objective of this study was to verify the influence of test environment on the flexural strength of dental porcelains with distinct microstructures. Material and Methods: Disk-shaped specimens from three dental porcelains with distinct leucite content (VM: zero; CE: 12; NS: 22 vol%) were manufactured and tested for biaxial flexural strength in air and immersed in artificial saliva. The results were analyzed by means of two-way ANOVA and Tukey`s test (alpha = 0.05). Results: The flexural strength (MPa) obtained for ambient air and artificial saliva environments, respectively, were: 110.0 +/- 16.0 and 81.5 +/- 10.8 for VM; 51.9 +/- 4.0 and 42.0 +/- 4.7 for CE; 72.0 +/- 11.5 and 63.6 +/- 5.8 for NS. A numerical decrease in the mean flexural strength was observed for all groups when specimens were tested under artificial saliva; however, the difference was only statistically significant for VM. Conclusions: The results indicate that the effect of water immersion on the flexural strength of dental porcelains varies according to their leucite content, as only the material without leucite in its microstructure (VM) showed significant strength degradation when tested under water.

Resource entitlements of indigenous minorities, their poverty and conservation of nature: Status of Australian Aborigines, comparisons with India's tribals, theory and changing policies globally

Considers the relevance of A.K. Sen’s theory of entitlements to the situation facing indigenous tribal people, its relationship to institutionalism, and to theories of property rights. Changing world views about the resource entitlements that should be given to local communities are outlined concentrating on the views expressed by the World Conservation Union (IUCN). These changing views have relevance for the resource entitlements of indigenous tribal communities and are reflected in differences in the policy approaches inherent in the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) and the more recent Convention on Biological Diversity. The latter embodies the view that provision of greater resource entitlements to local communities can provide economic incentives for nature conservation. There is a case for Indigenous Australians to be given greater rights to market the natural produce from their lands. Despite progress with land rights, they are not entitled to market much of the natural produce from their land. The socioeconomic status of Australian Aborigines is outlined. Their standard of living and their life expectancy are low by world standards and in comparison to other Australians. This is partly a result of historical events that have restricted their rights. These events are outlined briefly. Views differ about the appropriate development paths for Indigenous Australians and these are assessed. Concern on environmental and economic grounds is expressed about the view that the economic development of Australian Aboriginal communities would be accelerated by replacing their communal land titles by private land titles and encouraging Western-style agriculture and commercial development of their lands. Some comparisons are also made with the situation of India’s Tribals.