Inferring migration flows from the migration propensities of infants: Mexico and Indonesia

The need for methods of indirectly estimating migration flows is particularly important in developing countries, where migration data are often incomplete and inaccurate. This paper focuses on the use of an indirect internal migration estimation method applied to Mexican and Indonesian census data. It shows that the mobility propensities of infants can be used to infer the corresponding propensities of all other age groups. However, the promise of this method is reduced in instances of inadequate data, and great care must be taken to identify outlying values in the data and to correct obviously erroneous patterns. Future work increasingly will be directed to this issue.

Trade relationships between the Gulf Cooperation Council and the European Union

This paper examines the trade relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the European Union (EU). A simultaneous equation regression model is developed and estimated to assist with the analysis. The regression results, using both the two stage least squares (2SLS) and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation methods, reveal the existence of feedback effects between the two economic integrations. The results also show that during times of slack in oil prices, the GCC income from its investments overseas helped to finance its imports from the EU.

Carapace dentition patterns, morphometrics and allozyme differentiation amongst two toothed freshwater crab species (Potamonautes warreni and P-unispinus) (Decapoda : Brachyura : Potamonautidae) from river systems in South Africa

The taxonomic relationship between two toothed South African river crabs, Potamonautes warreni and P. unispinus, is unclear. The problem stems from the widespread variation in carapace dentition patterns amongst P. warreni individuals over its biogeographic range, where single toothed individuals may appear similar in carapace morphology to P. unispinus. Ten populations of P. warreni and 18 populations of P. unispinus were collected and the morphometric and genetic differentiation between the two taxa quantified. Patterns of morphometric and genetic variation were examined using multivariate statistics and protein gel electrophoresis, respectively. Principal component analyses of carapace characters showed that the two species are morphologically indistinguishable. However, discriminate functions analyses and additional statistical results corroborate the morphological distinction between the two taxa. Allozyme electrophoresis of 17 protein coding loci, indicated a close genetic similarity between the two species (I = 0.92). A fixed allelic difference at one locus (LT-2) and extensive genetic variability at another locus (PGM-1) indicate that two gene pools are present and that the two taxa are genetically isolated. Intraspecific genetic I values for both species were > 0.97 and indicated no apparent genetic structuring on a micro or macro-geographic scale. The variation in carapace dentition among P. warreni populations possesses no genetic basis and may possibly toe the product of ecogenesis. The value of dentition patterns in the systematics of river crabs is discussed. Dentition patterns among river crab species appear to be conserved and reliable as species specific diagnostic markers, but should ideally be used in combination with other morphological data sets and genetic evidence.

Reproductive dynamics of endeavour prawns, Metapenaeus endeavouri and M-ensis, in Albatross Bay, Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia

The spawning patterns of two penaeid prawns, Metapenaeus endeavouri (Schmitt) and M. ensis (De Haan), were examined from data collected at 45 stations between March 1986 and March 1992. An index of population fecundity based on the abundance, proportion and fecundity of sexually mature females was used as a measure of spawning output of the prawn stock. The population fecundity index for M. ensis was higher than that for M. endeavouri. The monthly population fecundity index for M. endeavouri varied markedly among years, while that for M. ensis was consistent among years. Spawning of M. endeavouri occurred year-round, while that of M. ensis was concentrated mainly in spring (September to November). For M. endeavouri, a minor spawning, derived from a relatively small number of summer spawners, occurred in the 20 to 30 m offshore waters in summer. In early summer (after May), the major spawning group consisted of large females from the winter-spawning cohort, and the spawning area shifted to depths of 30 to 60 m. In winter (July), the major spawning, derived from the winter-spawning cohort, occurred at depths of 20 to 40 m. For M. ensis, the major spawning, derived from the spring-spawning cohort, was observed in depths < 50 m and was concentrated particularly in inshore waters ( 50 m). These results suggest that mature female M. endeavouri and M. ensis move offshore (>40 m) by May and July, respectively, and return to shallow waters (

Isolation of arboviruses from mosquitoes (Diptera : Culicidae) collected from the Gulf Plains region of northwest Queensland, Australia

As part of investigations into Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus and related flaviviruses in northern Australia, 153,529 mosquitoes were collected and processed for virus isolation from the Gulf Plains region of northwest Queensland. Collections front within 30 km of each of the townships of Croydon, Normanton and Karumba yielded 3,087 (2.0%), 66,009 (43.0%), and 84,433 (55.0%) mosquitoes, respectively, from which 16 viruses were isolated. Four isolates of Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE), two of Kunjin (KUN), three of Ross River (1111), and one of Sindbis (SIN) viruses were obtained from Culex sitiens subgroup mosquitoes. Molecular identification of the mosquito species composition of these virus positive pools revealed that most isolates were from pools containing mainly Culex annulirostris Skuse and low numbers of Cidex palpalis (Taylor). Only three pools, one each of MVE, KUN, and RR, were from mosquitoes identified exclusively as Cx. annulirostris. Other viruses isolated include one Edge Hill Virus from Ochlerotatus normanensis (Taylor), an isolate of SIN from Anopheles meraukensis Venhuis, two isolates of RR from Anopheles amictus Edwards, and single isolates of RR from Anopheles bancroftii Giles and Aedes lineatopennis (Ludlow). The isolate of RR from Ae. lineatopennis was the first reported from this species. The public health implications of these isolations in the Gulf Plains region are discussed briefly.

Muertes por homicidio, consecuencia fatal de la violencia: el caso de Mexico, 1979-1992

Se analizaron las muertes registradas como homicidio en México de 1979-1992. El estudio se basó en fuente secundaria, siendo las variables analizadas: año, edad, sexo y causa externa de traumatismos y envenenamientos según CIE IX Rev.(E960-E969). Se utilizó un modelo de regresión Poisson para las causas más frecuentes, obteniendo riesgos relativos según edad y sexo. El grupo de referencia fue el de 10-14 años y el sexo femenino. Se registraron 198,485 muertes por Homicidio, con un promedio anual de 14,177 y diario de 39. La principal causa fue ataque con arma de fuego y explosivos(56%). El riesgo relativo más alto fue para el grupo de 35-39 años, con RR 15,4 IC(95%) 14,9-16,0, en comparación al de referencia. El sexo masculino presentó un riesgo relativo 10,1 veces mayor que el femenino, ajustado por edad IC10.0-10.3. Los resultados llaman la atención sobre la necesidad de profundizar y analizar el problema de los homicidios bajo una perspectiva multidisciplinaria.

Design of a sea-level tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz

The devastating impact of the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, raised the question for scientists of how to forecast a tsunami threat. In 2005, the IOC-UNESCO XXIII assembly decided to implement a global tsunami warning system to cover the regions that were not yet protected, namely the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the North East Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (the NEAM region). Within NEAM, the Gulf of Cadiz is the more sensitive area, with an important record of devastating historical events. The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary design for a reliable tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz, based on a network of sea-level observatories. The tsunamigenic potential of this region has been revised in order to define the active tectonic structures. Tsunami hydrodynamic modeling and GIS technology have been used to identify the appropriate locations for the minimum number of sea-level stations. Results show that 3 tsunameters are required as the minimum number of stations necessary to assure an acceptable protection to the large coastal population in the Gulf of Cadiz. In addition, 29 tide gauge stations could be necessary to fully assess the effects of a tsunami along the affected coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco.

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

Effects of health decentralization, financing and governance in Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To identify the effects of decentralization on health financing and governance policies in Mexico from the perspective of users and providers. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out in four states that were selected according to geopolitical and administrative criteria. Four indicators were assessed: changes and effects on governance, financing sources and funds, the final destination of resources, and fund allocation mechanisms. Data collection was performed using in-depth interviews with health system key personnel and community leaders, consensus techniques and document analyses. The interviews were transcribed and analyzed by thematic segmentation. RESULTS: The results show different effectiveness levels for the four states regarding changes in financing policies and community participation. Effects on health financing after decentralization were identified in each state, including: greater participation of municipal and state governments in health expenditure, increased financial participation of households, greater community participation in low-income states, duality and confusion in the new mechanisms for coordination among the three government levels, absence of an accountability system, lack of human resources and technical skills to implement, monitor and evaluate changes in financing. CONCLUSIONS: In general, positive and negative effects of decentralization on health financing and governance were identified. The effects mentioned by health service providers and users were related to a diversification of financing sources, a greater margin for decisions around the use and final destination of financial resources and normative development for the use of resources. At the community level, direct financial contributions were mentioned, as well as in-kind contributions, particularly in the form of community work.

Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence

The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.

Development of conceptacles in Amphiroa (Corallinales, Rhodophyta)

Here, we describe the development of sporangial and gametangial conceptacles for Amphiroa beauvoisii and A. vanbosseae; sporangial conceptacles only for A. misakiensis; and gametangial conceptacles only for A. cryptarthrodia and A. rigida. The descriptions are based on the observation of histological preparations obtained from 112 specimens collected from the Gulf of California, in Mexico, and the Azores archipelago of Portugal. Information on the development of the sporangial conceptacle pore and conceptacle senescence is here described and illustrated for the first time. Four development patterns were observed: two for sporangial conceptacles; one for spermatangial conceptacles; and one for carposporangial conceptacles. The phases of development of the sporangial conceptacle were found to be useful in delimiting species within the genus. Based on the sporangium location on the cavity floor and the pore canal anatomy, the species A. beauvoisii, A. misakiensis and A. vanbosseae can be distinguished from each other.

Economic burden of expected epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco, Mexico

OBJECTIVE: To determine health care costs and economic burden of epidemiological changes in diseases related to tobacco consumption. METHODS: A time-series analysis in Mexico (1994-2005) was carried out on seven health interventions: chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, lung cancer with and without surgical intervention, asthma in smokers and non-smokers, full treatment course with nicotine gum, and full treatment course with nicotine patch. According with Box-Jenkins methodology, probabilistic models were developed to forecast the expected changes in the epidemiologic profile and the expected changes in health care services required for selected interventions. Health care costs were estimated following the instrumentation methods and validated with consensus technique. RESULTS: A comparison of the economic impact in 2006 vs. 2008 showed 20-90% increase in expected cases depending on the disease (p<0.05), and 25-93% increase in financial requirements (p<0.01). The study data suggest that changes in the demand for health services for patients with respiratory diseases related to tobacco consumption will continue showing an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: In economic terms, the growing number of cases expected during the study period indicates a process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of preventive and curative interventions. The study results support the assumption that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and management challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico.

Vision antropologica de la descentralizacion del sistema de salud en Mexico

OBJETIVO: Analizar cambios organizacionales, políticos y económicos resultantes de la descentralización del sistema de salud en la población sin seguridad social en México. METODOS: Se visitaron tres estados del país seleccionados por el número de habitantes en condición de pobreza, el partido político en el poder y la etapa de implementación de la descentralización (la primera fue en 1984 y la segunda en 1997). Se realizaron entrevistas durante 2007 con informantes clave de los servicios de salud de los gobiernos estatales, personas que acudieron a consulta en los servicios estatales de salud y líderes comunitarios. Los datos fueron analizados desde una perspectiva antropológica y económica. RESULTADOS: La descentralización ocurrió de forma heterogénea en cada estado, observándose una transferencia de responsabilidades de la federación a los estados, más no así una ruptura con la dependencia del nivel central - federal. Las reformas impulsadas desde el nivel federal para crear un esquema fundamentado en principios de subsidiaridad financiera y democratización en salud enfrentan retos políticos y organizacionales para su consolidación. CONCLUSIONES: El enfoque antropológico muestra la relevancia de considerar factores organizacionales, políticos y económicos como parte del proceso de descentralización.