Gauging the Success of Technical Trading Strategies in the S&P 500 Index Futures Market.

Rapport de recherche

Explaining the Great Divergence: Medium and Message on the Eurasian Land Mass, 1700-1850

Between 1700 and 1850, per-capita income doubled in Europe while falling in the rest of Eurasia. Neither geography nor economic institutions can explain this sudden divergence. Here the consequences of differences in communications technology are examined. For the first time, there appeared in Europe a combination of a standardized medium (national vernaculars with a phonetic alphabet) and a non-standardized message (competing religious, political and scientific ideas). The result was an unprecedented fall in the cost of combining ideas and burst of productivity-raising innovation. Elsewhere, decreasing standardization of the medium and increasing standardization of the message blocked innovation.

Report of the Secretary of War: being part of the message and documents communicated to two houses of Congress at the beginning of the secondd session of the forty-sixth Congress.

UANL

Message from the President of the United States to the two Houses of Congress: at the commencement of the first session of the Thirty-ninth Congress, with the reports of the heads of departments and selections from accompanying documents

UANL

Top trading with fixed tie-breaking in markets with indivisible goods

We study markets with indivisible goods where monetary compensations are not possible. Each individual is endowed with an object and a preference relation over all objects. When preferences are strict, Gale's top trading cycle algorithm finds the unique core allocation. When preferences are not necessarily strict, we use an exogenous profile of tie-breakers to resolve any ties in individuals' preferences and apply Gale's top trading cycle algorithm for the resulting profile of strict preferences. We provide a foundation of these simple extensions of Gale's top trading cycle algorithm from strict preferences to weak preferences. We show that Gale's top trading cycle algorithm with fixed tie-breaking is characterized by individual rationality, strategy-proofness, weak efficiency, non-bossiness, and consistency. Our result supports the common practice in applications to break ties in weak preferences using some fixed exogenous criteria and then to use a 'good and simple' rule for the resulting strict preferences. This reinforces the market-based approach even in the presence of indifferences because always competitive allocations are chosen.

The evolution and consequences of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)

"Jon B. Skjaerseth, professeur associé, Fridtjof Nansen Institute (Norvège), a présenté dans le cadre du panel Gestion des risques environnementaux par les institutions financières,  une conférence intitulée ""The evolution and consequences of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS)""."

Use of Novel Algorithms MAJE4 and MACJER-320 for Achieving Confidentiality and Message Authentication in SSL & TLS

Extensive use of the Internet coupled with the marvelous growth in e-commerce and m-commerce has created a huge demand for information security. The Secure Socket Layer (SSL) protocol is the most widely used security protocol in the Internet which meets this demand. It provides protection against eaves droppings, tampering and forgery. The cryptographic algorithms RC4 and HMAC have been in use for achieving security services like confidentiality and authentication in the SSL. But recent attacks against RC4 and HMAC have raised questions in the confidence on these algorithms. Hence two novel cryptographic algorithms MAJE4 and MACJER-320 have been proposed as substitutes for them. The focus of this work is to demonstrate the performance of these new algorithms and suggest them as dependable alternatives to satisfy the need of security services in SSL. The performance evaluation has been done by using practical implementation method.

Use of Novel Algorithms MAJE4 and MACJER-320 for Achieving Confidentiality and Message Authentication in SSL & TLS.

Extensive use of the Internet coupled with the marvelous growth in e-commerce and m-commerce has created a huge demand for information security. The Secure Socket Layer (SSL) protocol is the most widely used security protocol in the Internet which meets this demand. It provides protection against eaves droppings, tampering and forgery. The cryptographic algorithms RC4 and HMAC have been in use for achieving security services like confidentiality and authentication in the SSL. But recent attacks against RC4 and HMAC have raised questions in the confidence on these algorithms. Hence two novel cryptographic algorithms MAJE4 and MACJER-320 have been proposed as substitutes for them. The focus of this work is to demonstrate the performance of these new algorithms and suggest them as dependable alternatives to satisfy the need of security services in SSL. The performance evaluation has been done by using practical implementation method.

Message Integrity in the World Wide Web: Use of Nested Hash Function and a Fast Stream Cipher

The focus of this work is to provide authentication and confidentiality of messages in a swift and cost effective manner to suit the fast growing Internet applications. A nested hash function with lower computational and storage demands is designed with a view to providing authentication as also to encrypt the message as well as the hash code using a fast stream cipher MAJE4 with a variable key size of 128-bit or 256-bit for achieving confidentiality. Both nested Hash function and MAJE4 stream cipher algorithm use primitive computational operators commonly found in microprocessors; this makes the method simple and fast to implement both in hardware and software. Since the memory requirement is less, it can be used for handheld devices for security purposes.

A Study on Futures Trading in Commodities With Special Reference to Rubber

Futures trading in Commodities has three specific economic functions viz. price discovery, hedging and reduction in volatility. Natural rubber possesses all the specifications required for futures trading. Commodity futures trading in India attained momentum after the starting of national level commodity exchanges in 2003. The success of futures trading depends upon effective price risk management, price discovery and reduced volatility which in turn depends upon the volume of trading. In the case of rubber futures market, the volume of trading depends upon the extent of participation by market players like growers, dealers, manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS). The extent of participation by market players has a direct bearing on their awareness level and their perception about futures trading. In the light of the above facts and the review of literature available on rubber futures market, it is felt that a study on rubber futures market is necessary to fill the research gap, with specific focus on (1) the awareness and perception of rubber futures market participants viz. (i) rubber growers, (ii) dealers, (iii) rubber product manufacturers, (iv) rubber marketing co-operative societies and Rubber Producer’s Societies (RPS) about futures trading and (2) whether the rubber futures market is fulfilling the economic functions of futures market viz. hedging, reduction in volatility and price discovery or not. The study is confined to growers, dealers, rubber goods manufacturers, rubber marketing co-operative societies and RPS in Kerala. In order to achieve the stated objectives, the study utilized secondary data for the period from 2003 to 2013 from different published sources like bulletins, newsletters, circulars from NMCE, Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Warehousing Corporation and traders. The primary data required for this study were collected from rubber growers, rubber dealers, RPS & Rubber Marketing Co-operative Societies and rubber goods manufacturers in Kerala. Data pertaining to the awareness and perception of futures trading, participation in the futures trading, use of spot and futures prices and source of price information by dealers, farmers, manufacturers and cooperative societies also were collected. Statistical tools used for analysis include percentage, standard deviation, Chi-square test, Mann – Whitney U test, Kruskal Wallis test, Augmented Dickey – Fuller test statistic, t- statistic, Granger causality test, F- statistic, Johansen co – integration test, Trace statistic and Max –Eigen statistic. The study found that 71.5 per cent of the total hedges are effective and 28.5 per cent are ineffective for the period under study. It implies that futures market in rubber reduced the impact of price risks by approximately 71.5 per cent. Further, it is observed that, on 54.4 per cent occasions, the futures market exercised a stabilizing effect on the spot market, and on 45.6 per cent occasions futures trading exercised a destabilizing effect on the spot market. It implies that elasticity of expectation of futures market in rubber has a predominant stabilizing effect on spot prices. The market, as a whole, exhibits a bias in favour of long hedges. Spot price volatility of rubber during futures suspension period is more than that of the pre suspension period and post suspension period. There is a bi-directional association-ship or bi-directional causality or pair- wise causality between spot price and futures price of rubber. From the results of the hedging efficiency, spot price volatility, and price discovery, it can be concluded that rubber futures market fulfils all the economic functions expected from a commodity futures market. Thus in India, the future of rubber futures is Bright…!!!

The Media is the Message?!

Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der grafischen Gestaltung von Mathematiklehrwerken und der damit verbundenen Wirkungen auf die SchülerInnen. Es wurde untersucht, welche Art von Gestaltungsaspekten in Schulbüchern eine positive Auswirkung auf die Lernmotivation hat. Im theoretischen Teil dieser Arbeit wird zunächst erläutert, wie der menschliche Wahrnehmungsapparat nach theoretischen Erkenntnissen aus der Wahrnehmungspsychologie visuelle Elemente wie Farbe und Form verarbeitet. Anhand gestaltpsychologischer und motivationspsychologischer Theorien werden mögliche Einflüsse und in diesem Zusammenhang bedeutungsvolle Aspekte aufgezeigt. Einzelne Funktionen und Wirkungsaspekte der einzelnen Medienbausteine wie Bild, Typografie und Bild-Text-Kombinationen werden anhand von Beispielen aus Mathematiklehrwerken dargestellt. Ein Exkurs über den vermehrten Einfluss der neuen Medien bei Kindern und Jugendlichen verdeutlicht, welche visuellen Medienerfahrungen Kinder und Jugendliche bei der Betrachtung eines Schulbuches mitbringen. Anschließend werden die erarbeiteten theoretischen Grundlagen in einer praktischen Arbeit genutzt. Eine exemplarisch ausgewählte Seite eines Mathematiklehrwerks werde unter verschiedenen gestalterischen Gesichtspunkten umgestaltet, so dass mehreren Varianten entstehen. Diese Entwürfe werden in einer qualitativen Studie mit einzelnen SchülerInnen diskutiert. Die Ergebnisse der aufgezeichneten Interviews wurden durch die Auswertungsmethode des zirkulären Dekonstruierens auf die aufgeworfenen Forschungsfragen untersucht und ausgewertet.

A Concurrent Smalltalk Compiler for the Message-Driven Processor

This thesis describes Optimist, an optimizing compiler for the Concurrent Smalltalk language developed by the Concurrent VLSI Architecture Group. Optimist compiles Concurrent Smalltalk to the assembly language of the Message-Driven Processor (MDP). The compiler includes numerous optimization techniques such as dead code elimination, dataflow analysis, constant folding, move elimination, concurrency analysis, duplicate code merging, tail forwarding, use of register variables, as well as various MDP-specific optimizations in the code generator. The MDP presents some unique challenges and opportunities for compilation. Due to the MDP's small memory size, it is critical that the size of the generated code be as small as possible. The MDP is an inherently concurrent processor with efficient mechanisms for sending and receiving messages; the compiler takes advantage of these mechanisms. The MDP's tagged architecture allows very efficient support of object-oriented languages such as Concurrent Smalltalk. The initial goals for the MDP were to have the MDP execute about twenty instructions per method and contain 4096 words of memory. This compiler shows that these goals are too optimistic -- most methods are longer, both in terms of code size and running time. Thus, the memory size of the MDP should be increased.

Concurrent Aggregates (CA): An Object-Oriented Language for Fine-Grained Message-Passing Machines

Fine-grained parallel machines have the potential for very high speed computation. To program massively-concurrent MIMD machines, programmers need tools for managing complexity. These tools should not restrict program concurrency. Concurrent Aggregates (CA) provides multiple-access data abstraction tools, Aggregates, which can be used to implement abstractions with virtually unlimited potential for concurrency. Such tools allow programmers to modularize programs without reducing concurrency. I describe the design, motivation, implementation and evaluation of Concurrent Aggregates. CA has been used to construct a number of application programs. Multi-access data abstractions are found to be useful in constructing highly concurrent programs.