Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Estudio de la convergencia de una cadena de Markov y su aplicación a la gestión del ganado porcino.

Tesis (Maestría en Ingeniería de Sistemas) UANL, 2012.

Time Reversibility of Stationary Regular Finite State Markov Chains

We propose an alternate parameterization of stationary regular finite-state Markov chains, and a decomposition of the parameter into time reversible and time irreversible parts. We demonstrate some useful properties of the decomposition, and propose an index for a certain type of time irreversibility. Two empirical examples illustrate the use of the proposed parameter, decomposition and index. One involves observed states; the other, latent states.

On Limits to the Use of Linear Markov Strategies in Common Property Natural Resource Games

We derive conditions that must be satisfied by the primitives of the problem in order for an equilibrium in linear Markov strategies to exist in some common property natural resource differential games. These conditions impose restrictions on the admissible form of the natural growth function, given a benefit function, or on the admissible form of the benefit function, given a natural growth function.

Problèmes de premier passage et de commande optimale pour des chaînes de Markov à temps discret.

Nous considérons des processus de diffusion, définis par des équations différentielles stochastiques, et puis nous nous intéressons à des problèmes de premier passage pour les chaînes de Markov en temps discret correspon- dant à ces processus de diffusion. Comme il est connu dans la littérature, ces chaînes convergent en loi vers la solution des équations différentielles stochas- tiques considérées. Notre contribution consiste à trouver des formules expli- cites pour la probabilité de premier passage et la durée de la partie pour ces chaînes de Markov à temps discret. Nous montrons aussi que les résultats ob- tenus convergent selon la métrique euclidienne (i.e topologie euclidienne) vers les quantités correspondantes pour les processus de diffusion. En dernier lieu, nous étudions un problème de commande optimale pour des chaînes de Markov en temps discret. L’objectif est de trouver la valeur qui mi- nimise l’espérance mathématique d’une certaine fonction de coût. Contraire- ment au cas continu, il n’existe pas de formule explicite pour cette valeur op- timale dans le cas discret. Ainsi, nous avons étudié dans cette thèse quelques cas particuliers pour lesquels nous avons trouvé cette valeur optimale.

Retrial Queues with Orbital Search

Queueing system in which arriving customers who find all servers and waiting positions (if any) occupied many retry for service after a period of time are retrial queues or queues with repeated attempts. This study deals with two objectives one is to introduce orbital search in retrial queueing models which allows to minimize the idle time of the server. If the holding costs and cost of using the search of customers will be introduced, the results we obtained can be used for the optimal tuning of the parameters of the search mechanism. The second one is to provide insight of the link between the corresponding retrial queue and the classical queue. At the end we observe that when the search probability Pj = 1 for all j, the model reduces to the classical queue and when Pj = 0 for all j, the model becomes the retrial queue. It discusses the performance evaluation of single-server retrial queue. It was determined by using Poisson process. Then it discuss the structure of the busy period and its analysis interms of Laplace transforms and also provides a direct method of evaluation for the first and second moments of the busy period. Then it discusses the M/ PH/1 retrial queue with disaster to the unit in service and orbital search, and a multi-server retrial queueing model (MAP/M/c) with search of customers from the orbit. MAP is convenient tool to model both renewal and non-renewal arrivals. Finally the present model deals with back and forth movement between classical queue and retrial queue. In this model when orbit size increases, retrial rate also correspondingly increases thereby reducing the idle time of the server between services

Queues with retrial/self-generation of priorities /postponement of work and some related reliability problems

Application of Queueing theory in areas like Computer networking, ATM facilities, Telecommunications and to many other numerous situation made people study Queueing models extensively and it has become an ever expanding branch of applied probability. The thesis discusses Reliability of a ‘k-out-of-n system’ where the server also attends external customers when there are no failed components (main customers), under a retrial policy, which can be explained in detail. It explains the reliability of a ‘K-out-of-n-system’ where the server also attends external customers and studies a multi-server infinite capacity Queueing system where each customer arrives as ordinary but can generate into priority customer which waiting in the queue. The study gives details on a finite capacity multi-server queueing system with self-generation of priority customers and also on a single server infinite capacity retrial Queue where the customer in the orbit can generate into a priority customer and leaves the system if the server is already busy with a priority generated customer; else he is taken for service immediately. Arrival process is according to a MAP and service times follow MSP.

Stochastic Modelling Using Markov Chains

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

On Queues with Interruptions and Repeat or Resumption of Service

This thesis entitled' On Queues with Interruptions and Repeat or Resumption of Service' introduces several new concepts into queues with service interruption. It is divided into Seven chapters including an introductory chapter. The following are keywords that we use in this thesis: Phase type (PH) distribution, Markovian Arrival Process (MAP), Geometric Distribution, Service Interruption, First in First out (FIFO), threshold random variable and Super threshold random variable. In the second chapter we introduce a new concept called the 'threshold random variable' which competes with interruption time to decide whether to repeat or resume the interrupted service after removal of interruptions. This notion generalizes the work reported so far in queues with service interruptions. In chapter 3 we introduce the concept of what is called 'Super threshold clock' (a random variable) which keeps track of the total interruption time of a customer during his service except when it is realized before completion of interruption in some cases to be discussed in this thesis and in other cases it exactly measures the duration of all interruptions put together. The Super threshold clock is OIl whenever the service is interrupted and is deactivated when service is rendered. Throughout this thesis the first in first out service discipline is followed except for priority queues.

Bidirectional communication using delay coupled chaotic directly modulated semiconductor lasers

Chaotic synchronization of two directly modulated semiconductor lasers with negative delayed optoelectronic feedback is investigated and this scheme is found to be useful for e±cient bidirectional communication between the lasers. A symmetric bidirec- tional coupling is identified as a suitable method for isochronal synchronization of such lasers. The optimum values of coupling and feedback strength that can provide maxi- mum quality of synchronization are identified. This method is successfully employed for encoding/decoding both analog and digital messages. The importance of a symmetric coupling is demonstrated by studying the variation of decoding efficiency with respect to asymmetric coupling.

Multi-user bidirectional communication using isochronal synchronisation of array of chaotic directly modulated semiconductor lasers

Isochronal synchronisation between the elements of an array of three mutually coupled directly modulated semiconductor lasers is utilized for the purpose of simultaneous bidirectional secure communication. Chaotic synchronisation is achieved by adding the coupling signal to the self feedback signal provided to each element of the array. A symmetric coupling is effective in inducing synchronisation between the elements of the array. This coupling scheme provides a direct link between every pair of elements thus making the method suitable for simultaneous bidirectional communication between them. Both analog and digital messages are successfully encrypted and decrypted simultaneously by each element of the array.

Performance characteristics of positive and negative delayed feedback on chaotic dynamics of directly modulated InGaAsP semiconductor lasers

The chaotic dynamics of directly modulated semiconductor lasers with delayed optoelectronic feedback is studied numerically. The effects of positive and negative delayed optoelectronic feedback in producing chaotic outputs from such lasers with nonlinear gain reduction in its optimum value range is investigated using bifurcation diagrams. The results are confirmed by calculating the Lyapunov exponents. A negative delayed optoelectronic feedback configuration is found to be more effective in inducing chaotic dynamics to such systems with nonlinear gain reduction factor in the practical value range.

Control of bistability in a directly modulated semiconductor laser using delayed optoelectronic feedback

We show numerically that direct delayed optoelectronic feedback can suppress hysteresis and bistability in a directly modulated semiconductor laser. The simulation of a laser with feedback is performed for a considerable range of feedback strengths and delays and the corresponding values for the areas of the hysteresis loops are calculated. It is shown that the hysteresis loop completely vanishes for certain combinations of these parameters. The regimes for the disappearance of bistability are classified globally. Different dynamical states of the laser are characterized using bifurcation diagrams and time series plots.

Suppression of chaos through reverse period doubling in coupled directly modulated semiconductor lasers

The effect of coupling on two high frequency modulated semiconductor lasers is numerically studied. The phase diagrams and bifurcatio.n diagrams are drawn. As the coupling constant is increased the system goes from chaotic to periodic behavior through a reverse period doubling sequence. The Lyapunov exponent is calculated to characterize chaotic and periodic regions.