Projection of global wave climate change towards the end of the 21st century

Wind generated waves at the sea surface are of outstanding importance for both their practical relevance in many aspects, such as coastal erosion, protection, or safety of navigation, and for their scientific relevance in modifying fluxes at the air-sea interface. So far long-term changes in ocean wave climate have been studied mostly from a regional perspective with global dynamical studies emerging only recently. Here a global wave climate study is presented, in which a global wave model (WAM) is driven by atmospheric forcing from a global climate model (ECHAM5) for present day and potential future climate conditions represented by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) A1B emission scenario. It is found that changes in mean and extreme wave climate towards the end of the twenty-first century are small to moderate, with the largest signals being a poleward shift in the annual mean and extreme significant wave heights in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, more pronounced in the Southern Hemisphere, and most likely associated with a corresponding shift in mid-latitude storm tracks. These changes are broadly consistent with results from the few studies available so far. The projected changes in the mean wave periods, associated with the changes in the wave climate in the mid to high latitudes, are also shown, revealing a moderate increase in the equatorial eastern side of the ocean basins. This study presents a step forward towards a larger ensemble of global wave climate projections required to better assess robustness and uncertainty of potential future wave climate change.

Mapping the platelet profile for functional genomic studies and demonstration of the effect size of the GP6 locus

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests the wide variation in platelet response within the population is genetically controlled. Unraveling the complex relationship between sequence variation and platelet phenotype requires accurate and reproducible measurement of platelet response. OBJECTIVE: To develop a methodology suitable for measuring signaling pathway-specific platelet phenotype, to use this to measure platelet response in a large cohort, and to demonstrate the effect size of sequence variation in a relevant model gene. METHODS: Three established platelet assays were evaluated: mobilization of [Ca(2+)](i), aggregometry and flow cytometry, each in response to adenosine 5'-diphosphate (ADP) or the glycoprotein (GP) VI-specific crosslinked collagen-related peptide (CRP). Flow cytometric measurement of fibrinogen binding and P-selectin expression in response to a single, intermediate dose of each agonist gave the best combination of reproducibility and inter-individual variability and was used to measure the platelet response in 506 healthy volunteers. Pathway specificity was ensured by blocking the main subsidiary signaling pathways. RESULTS: Individuals were identified who were hypo- or hyper-responders for both pathways, or who had differential responses to the two agonists, or between outcomes. 89 individuals, retested three months later using the same methodology, showed high concordance between the two visits in all four assays (r(2) = 0.872, 0.868, 0.766 and 0.549); all subjects retaining their phenotype at recall. The effect of sequence variation at the GP6 locus accounted for approximately 35% of the variation in the CRP-XL response. CONCLUSION: Genotyping-phenotype association studies in a well-characterized, large cohort provides a powerful strategy to measure the effect of sequence variation in genes regulating the platelet response.

Mapping the trickle out benefits of social and environmental enterprises: a pilot study of an East African eco business

• Objectives The objective of this paper is to propose a framework for mapping the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of social and environmental enterprises in Africa. This framework is then piloted with reference to an East African Ecobusiness. • Prior Work This paper is based on data collected as part of a wider research project examining social and environmental enterprises across the 19 countries of Southern and Eastern Africa. In total, the sustainable development and poverty alleviation impacts of 20 in-depth case studies in 4 countries are being examined. • Approach Data was collected using in-depth interviews with multiple stakeholders associated with the case study business. Secondary materials were also analysed and a quantitative survey of customers undertaken. • Results In addition to their impacts on the environment, African eco businesses can also have substantial social, economic and wider poverty alleviation impacts. This paper maps the impacts of a case study East African ecobusiness, as part of developing a social and environmental enterprise impact framework for Africa and the wider developing world. In our case study, positive and negative impacts are identified, while questions are raised in relation to tradeoffs between social and environmental objectives and temporal dimensions of impact. The usefulness of existing frameworks for understanding the social, environmental and development impacts of these kinds of organisations are also considered. • Implications This paper outlines the necessity of building an African-centric impact map to capture the multi-level poverty alleviation and sustainable development impacts of social and environmental enterprise activity in developing world environments. The framework proposed also offers guidance to businesses operating in Africa about the factors that might be considered as part of their wider social and environmental responsibilities. • Value Assessing the impact of social and environmental enterprises, especially as a route to development within low income countries, is receiving increasing attention in academia and beyond. This paper presents a useful contribution to the scarce literature on social and environmental enterprises in Africa.

The end of the opportunism vs trust debate: bounded reliability as a new envelope concept in research on MNE governance

Modern transaction cost economics (TCE) thinking has developed into a key intellectual foundation of international business (IB) research, but the Williamsonian version has faced substantial criticism for adopting the behavioral assumption of opportunism. In this paper we assess both the opportunism concept and existing alternatives such as trust within the context of IB research, especially work on multinational enterprise (MNE) governance. Case analyses of nine global MNEs illustrate an alternative to the opportunism assumption that captures more fully the mechanisms underlying failed commitments inside the MNE. As a substitute for the often-criticized assumption of opportunism, we propose the envelope concept of bounded reliability (BRel), an assumption that represents more accurately and more completely the reasons for failed commitments, without invalidating the other critical assumption in conventional TCE (and internalization theory) thinking, namely the widely accepted envelope concept of bounded rationality (BRat). Bounded reliability as an envelope concept includes two main components, within the context of global MNE management: opportunism as intentional deceit, and benevolent preference reversal. The implications for IB research of adopting the bounded reliability concept are far reaching, as this concept may increase the legitimacy of comparative institutional analysis in the social sciences.

Dating the Thera (Santorin) eruption: evidence versus poor scholarship, and the end of the low chronology

The date of the Late Bronze Age Minoan eruption of the Thera volcano has provoked much debate among archaeologists, not least in a recent issue of Antiquity (‘Bronze Age catastrophe and modern controversy: dating the Santorini eruption’, March 2014). Here, the authors respond to those recent contributions, citing evidence that closes the gap between the conclusions offered by previous typological, stratigraphic and radiometric dating techniques. They reject the need to choose between alternative approaches to the problem and make a case for the synchronisation of eastern Mediterranean and Egyptian chronologies with agreement on a ‘high’ date in the late seventeenth century BC for the Thera eruption.

Adaptive social protection: mapping the evidence and policy context in the agriculture sector in south Asia

An aim of government and the international community is to respond to global processes and crises through a range of policy and practical approaches that help limit damage from shocks and stresses. Three approaches to vulnerability reduction that have become particularly prominent in recent years are social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Although these approaches have much in common, they have developed separately over the last two decades. However, given the increasingly complex and interlinked array of risks that poor and vulnerable people face, it is likely that they will not be sufficient in the long run if they continue to be applied in isolation from one another. In recognition of this challenge, the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has been developed. ASP refers to a series of measures which aims to build resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people to climate change by combining elements of SP, DRR and CCA in programmes and projects. The aim of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of the ways in which these elements are being brought together in development policy and practice. It does this by conducting a meta-analysis of 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in south Asia. These are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The findings show that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA is relatively limited in south Asia, although there has been significant progress in combining SP and DRR in the last ten years. Projects that combine elements of SP, DRR and CCA tend to emphasise broad poverty and vulnerability reduction goals relative to those that do not. Such approaches can provide valuable lessons and insights for the promotion of climate resilient livelihoods amongst policymakers and practitioners.

High Royds: an integrated, analytical approach for mapping the unmarked burials of a pauper cemetery

Applying geophysical techniques to detect and map the physical extent of individual unmarked graves proves difficult in many cases. The success of individual geophysical techniques for detecting unmarked graves may be due to a poor understanding of the nature of the graves themselves, the context in which they lie in, and temporal changes to the burial state. Given the unpredictability of these variables, it is surprising that grave prospection is often undertaken using only a single method. This paper presents a multi-methodological survey strategy for detecting unmarked burials and utilises an analytical approach for visualising and evaluating survey results.

The Earls of Kildare and their books at the end of the Middle Ages

The two surviving inventories of the library of the Fitzgerald Earls of Kildare bear witness to a particularly large and diverse collection of books in the Earls' castle at Maynooth, Co. Kildare. Between them, the lists record well over one hundred separate items in four languages: Latin, French, English and Irish. This paper traces the history of the library and analyses the Fitzgeralds' particular interests as book collectors and as readers. It provides the first full published set of suggested identifications and bibliographical details for the books at Maynooth. It also includes a fresh transcription of the library lists and a discussion of the manuscript context in which they are preserved. Sources like the Kildare library lists provide valuable evidence for the potential circulation of a wide range of non-native manuscripts and prints in late-medieval Ireland.