Aplication of a morphodinamic process based model in long-term climate change studies

Climate changes are foreseen to produce a large impact in the morphology of estuaries and coastal systems. The morphology changes will subsequently drive changes in the biologic compartments of the systems and ultimately in their ecosystems. Sea level rise is one of the main factors controlling these changes. Morphologic changes can be better understood with the use of long term morphodynamic mathematical models.

Long-term price range forecast applied to risk management using regression models

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

A long-term risk management tool for electricity markets using swarm intelligence

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in derivatives electricity markets of a power producer to hedge against the pool price volatility. To achieve this aim, a swarm intelligence meta-heuristic optimization technique for long-term risk management tool is proposed. This tool investigates the long-term opportunities for risk hedging available for electric power producers through the use of contracts with physical (spot and forward contracts) and financial (options contracts) settlement. The producer risk preference is formulated as a utility function (U) expressing the trade-off between the expectation and the variance of the return. Variance of return and the expectation are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a long-term price range forecasting model. This model also makes use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find the best parameters allow to achieve better forecasting results. On the other hand, the price estimation depends on load forecasting. This work also presents a regressive long-term load forecast model that make use of PSO to find the best parameters as well as in price estimation. The PSO technique performance has been evaluated by comparison with a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based approach. A case study is presented and the results are discussed taking into account the real price and load historical data from mainland Spanish electricity market demonstrating the effectiveness of the methodology handling this type of problems. Finally, conclusions are dully drawn.

Serum trace elements in dysphagic gastrostomy candidates before endoscopic gastrostomy for long term enteral feeding

Background & aims - Patients who underwent endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) present protein-energy malnutrition, but little is known about Trace Elements (TE), Zinc (Zn), Copper (Cu), Selenium (Se), Iron (Fe), Chromium (Cr). Our aim was the evaluation of serum TE in patients who underwent PEG and its relationship with serum proteins, BMI and nature of underlying disorder. Methods - A prospective observational study was performed collecting: patient's age, gender, underlying disorder, NRS-2002, BMI, serum albumin, transferrin and TE concentration. We used ferrozine colorimetric method for Fe; Inductively Coupled Plasma-Atomic Emission Spectroscopy for Zn/Cu; Furnace Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy for Se/Cr. The patients were divided into head and neck cancer (HNC) and neurological dysphagia (ND). Results - 146 patients (89 males), 21–95 years: HNC-56; ND-90. Low BMI in 78. Low values mostly for Zn (n = 122) and Fe (n = 69), but less for Se (n = 31), Cu (n = 16), Cr (n = 7); low albumin in 77, low transferrin in 94 and 66 with both proteins low. Significant differences between the groups of underlying disease only for Zn (t140.326 = −2,642, p < 0.01) and a correlation between proteins and TE respectively albumin and Zn (r = 0.197, p = 0.025), and albumin and Fe (r = 0.415, p = 0.000). Conclusions - When gastrostomy was performed, patients display low serum TE namely Zn, but also Fe, less striking regarding others TE. It was related with prolonged fasting, whatever the underlying disease. Low proteins were associated with low TE. Teams taking care of PEG-patients should use Zn supplementation and include other TE evaluation as part of the nutritional assessment of PEG candidates.

TURTLE: Systems and technologies for deep ocean long term presence

This paper describes the TURTLE project that aim to develop sub-systems with the capability of deep-sea long-term presence. Our motivation is to produce new robotic ascend and descend energy efficient technologies to be incorporated in robotic vehicles used by civil and military stakeholders for underwater operations. TURTLE contribute to the sustainable presence and operations in the sea bottom. Long term presence on sea bottom, increased awareness and operation capabilities in underwater sea and in particular on benthic deeps can only be achieved through the use of advanced technologies, leading to automation of operation, reducing operational costs and increasing efficiency of human activity.

Long-Term Recurrence of Nonmelanoma Skin Cancer after Topical Methylaminolevulinate Photodynamic Therapy in a Dermato-Oncology Department

BACKGROUND: Most available studies on the efficacy of topical photodynamic therapy focus on short-to medium-term results. Long-term data are scarce. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the long-term efficacy of photodynamic therapy with topical methylaminolevulinate to treat Bowen's disease and basal cell carcinoma in the clinical practice setting of a dermato-oncology department. METHODS: The study included patients diagnosed with Bowen's disease or basal cell carcinoma, and who received photodynamic therapy from 2004 to 2008. Treatment protocol and clinical follow-up were standardized. The primary endpoint was clinically observed recurrence in a previous photodynamic therapy-treated area. Descriptive and survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 31 Bowen's disease lesions and 44 superficial basal cell carcinoma were treated, with a median follow-up of 43.5 months. Recurrence was observed in 14 Bowen's disease lesions (53.8%) and in 11 superficial basal cell carcinoma (33.3%). Significantly higher estimates for recurrence rates were found in patients with Bowen's disease (p=0.0036) or those aged under 58 years (p=0.039). The risk of recurrence was higher in patients with Bowen's disease than in those with superficial basal cell carcinoma and younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Recurrence should be considered when choosing to treat non-melanoma skin cancer with photodynamic therapy. Younger age and Bowen's disease were independent predictors for long-term recurrence, suggesting the need to establish an extended period of follow-up for this subset of patients.

Long-term close follow-up of chorioretinal lesions in presumed ocular tuberculosis.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the long-term outcome (up to 7 years) of presumed ocular tuberculosis (TB) when the therapeutic decision was based on WHO guidelines. METHODS: Twelve out of 654 new uveitic patients (1998-2004) presented with choroiditis and positive tuberculosis skin test (TST) (skin lesion diameter >15 mm). Therapy was administered according to WHO recommendations after ophthalmic and systemic investigation. The area size of ocular lesions at presentation and after therapy, measured on fluorescein and indocyanine green angiographies, was considered the primary outcome. Relapse of choroiditis was considered a secondary outcome. The T-SPOT TB test was performed when it became available. RESULTS: Visual acuity significantly improved after therapy (p=0.0357). The mean total surface of fluorescein lesions at entry was 44.8 ± 20.9 (arbitrary units) and decreased to 32.5 ± 16.9 after therapy (p=0.0165). The mean total surface of indocyanine green lesions at entry was 24.5 ± 13.3 and decreased to 10.8 ± 5.4 after therapy (p=0.0631). The T-SPOT TB revealed 2 false TST-positive results. The mean follow-up was 4.5 ± 1.5 years. Two relapses out of 10 confirmed ocular TB was observed after complete lesion healing, 2.5 years and 4.5 years after therapy, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A decrease of ocular lesion mean size and a mean improvement of VA were observed after antituberculous therapy. Our long-term follow-up of chorioretinal lesions demonstrated relapse of ocular tuberculosis in 10% of patients with confirmed ocular TB, despite complete initial retinal scarring.

BP BLOGGER: DESCRIPTIVE STUDY OF ELECTRONIC KNOWLEDGE DISSEMINATION IN LONG TERM CARE

Little is known of the uptake and use of knowledge disseminated in electronic formats, especially in Long Term Care (LTC) settings. The purpose of this descriptive study was to examine the dissemination of the BP Bloggers, a series of brief, evidence summaries designed to meet the knowledge needs of LTC staff. Guided by Rogers’ (2003) Diffusion of Innovations theory, the study documents dissemination of the BP Blogger and examines factors affecting dissemination, awareness, perceptions and its use. The survey of BP Blogger recipients was conducted electronically (n=114) online (n=10), by telephone (n=55), and print (n=144). Managers usually received the newsletter electronically while staff in LTC were more likely to receive printed copies. Participants disseminated the newsletter through paper, email, or posting in the workplace. Most participants rated the content, format, and usefulness of the BP Blogger as good or excellent. Time and lack of email access were barriers to dissemination.

The long-term EU budget: size or flexibility? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/20, November 2012

The EU is in the process of negotiating its 2014-20 financial framework. Failure to reach an agreement would imply a delay in the preparation of the strategic plans each member state puts together to explain how it will use Structural and Cohesion Funds. Even if solutions are found – for example annual renewals of the budget based on the previous year's figures – there will be political and institutional costs. EU leaders have too often and too forcefully advocated the use of the EU budget for growth to be able to drop the idea without consequences. • The overwhelming attention paid to the size of the budget is misplaced. EU leaders should instead aim to make the EU budget more flexible, safeguard it from future political power struggles, and reinforce assessment of the impact of EU funded growth policies. • To improve flexibility a commitment device should be created that places the EU budget above continuous political disagreement. We suggest the creation of a European Growth Fund, on the basis of which the European Commission should be allowed to borrow on capital markets to anticipate pre-allocated EU expenditure, such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. Markets would thus be a factor in EU budget policymaking, with a potentially disciplining effect. Attaching conditionality to this type of disbursement appears legitimate, as capital delivered in this way is a form of assistance.

Evaluation of two soil carbon models using two Kenyan long term experimental datasets

RothC and Century are two of the most widely used soil organic matter (SOM) models. However there are few examples of specific parameterisation of these models for environmental conditions in East Africa. The aim of this study was therefore, to evaluate the ability of RothC and the Century to estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) resulting from varying land use/management practices for the climate and soil conditions found in Kenya. The study used climate, soils and crop data from a long term experiment (1976-2001) carried out at The Kabete site at The Kenya National Agricultural Research Laboratories (NARL, located in a semi-humid region) and data from a 13 year experiment carried out in Machang'a (Embu District, located in a semi-arid region). The NARL experiment included various fertiliser (0, 60 and 120 kg of N and P2O5 ha(-1)), farmyard manure (FYM - 5 and 10 t ha(-1)) and plant residue treatments, in a variety of combinations. The Machang'a experiment involved a fertiliser (51 kg N ha(-1)) and a FYM (0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1)) treatment with both monocropping and intercropping. At Kabete both models showed a fair to good fit to measured data, although Century simulations for treatments with high levels of FYM were better than those without. At the Machang'a site with monocrops, both models showed a fair to good fit to measured data for all treatments. However, the fit of both models (especially RothC) to measured data for intercropping treatments at Machang'a was much poorer. Further model development for intercrop systems is recommended. Both models can be useful tools in soil C Predictions, provided time series of measured soil C and crop production data are available for validating model performance against local or regional agricultural crops. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Land plants and DNA barcodes: short-term and long-term goals

Land plants have had the reputation of being problematic for DNA barcoding for two general reasons: (i) the standard DNA regions used in algae, animals and fungi have exceedingly low levels of variability and (ii) the typically used land plant plastid phylogenetic markers (e.g. rbcL, trnL-F, etc.) appear to have too little variation. However, no one has assessed how well current phylogenetic resources might work in the context of identification (versus phylogeny reconstruction). In this paper, we make such an assessment, particularly with two of the markers commonly sequenced in land plant phylogenetic studies, plastid rbcL and internal transcribed spacers of the large subunits of nuclear ribosomal DNA (ITS), and find that both of these DNA regions perform well even though the data currently available in GenBank/EBI were not produced to be used as barcodes and BLAST searches are not an ideal tool for this purpose. These results bode well for the use of even more variable regions of plastid DNA (such as, for example, psbA-trnH) as barcodes, once they have been widely sequenced. In the short term, efforts to bring land plant barcoding up to the standards being used now in other organisms should make swift progress. There are two categories of DNA barcode users, scientists in fields other than taxonomy and taxonomists. For the former, the use of mitochondrial and plastid DNA, the two most easily assessed genomes, is at least in the short term a useful tool that permits them to get on with their studies, which depend on knowing roughly which species or species groups they are dealing with, but these same DNA regions have important drawbacks for use in taxonomic studies (i.e. studies designed to elucidate species limits). For these purposes, DNA markers from uniparentally (usually maternally) inherited genomes can only provide half of the story required to improve taxonomic standards being used in DNA barcoding. In the long term, we will need to develop more sophisticated barcoding tools, which would be multiple, low-copy nuclear markers with sufficient genetic variability and PCR-reliability; these would permit the detection of hybrids and permit researchers to identify the 'genetic gaps' that are useful in assessing species limits.

Achievement of dietary fatty acid intakes in long-term controlled intervention studies: approach and methodology

Objective: To describe the calculations and approaches used to design experimental diets of differing saturated fatty acid (SFA) and monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) compositions for use in a long-term dietary intervention study, and to evaluate the degree to which the dietary targets were met. Design, setting and subjects: Fifty-one students living in a university hall of residence consumed a reference (SFA) diet for 8 weeks followed by either a moderate MUFA (MM) diet or a high MUFA (HM) diet for 16 weeks. The three diets were designed to differ only in their proportions of SFA and MUFA, while keeping total fat, polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), trans-fatty acids, and the ratio of palmitic to stearic acid, and n-6 to n-3 PUFA, unchanged. Results: Using habitual diet records and a standardised database for food fatty acid compositions, a sequential process of theoretical fat substitutions enabled suitable fat sources for use in the three diets to be identified, and experimental margarines for baking, spreading and the manufacture of snack foods to be designed. The dietary intervention was largely successful in achieving the fatty acid targets of the three diets, although unintended differences between the original target and the analysed fatty acid composition of the experimental margarines resulted in a lower than anticipated MUFA intake on the HM diet, and a lower ratio of palmitic to stearic acid compared with the reference or MM diet. Conclusions: This study has revealed important theoretical considerations that should be taken into account when designing diets of specific fatty acid composition, as well as practical issues of implementation.

Stomatal conductance and not stomatal density determines the long-term reduction in leaf transpiration of poplar in elevated CO2

Using a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment, poplar trees (Populus · euramericana clone I214) were exposed to either ambient or elevated [CO2] from planting, for a 5-year period during canopy development, closure, coppice and re-growth. In each year, measurements were taken of stomatal density (SD, number mm2) and stomatal index (SI, the proportion of epidermal cells forming stomata). In year 5, measurements were also taken of leaf stomatal conductance (gs, lmol m2 s1), photosynthetic CO2 fixation (A, mmol m2 s1), instantaneous water-use efficiency (A/E) and the ratio of intercellular to atmospheric CO2 (Ci:Ca). Elevated [CO2] caused reductions in SI in the first year, and in SD in the first 2 years, when the canopy was largely open. In following years, when the canopy had closed, elevated [CO2] had no detectable effects on stomatal numbers or index. In contrast, even after 5 years of exposure to elevated [CO2], gs was reduced, A/E was stimulated, and Ci:Ca was reduced relative to ambient [CO2]. These outcomes from the long-term realistic field conditions of this forest FACE experiment suggest that stomatal numbers (SD and SI) had no role in determining the improved instantaneous leaf-level efficiency of water use under elevated [CO2]. We propose that altered cuticular development during canopy closure may partially explain the changing response of stomata to elevated [CO2], although the mechanism for this remains obscure.

The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of animal populations

Background: The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings: Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance: Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes, or landscape ecology, which accounts for landscape structure but has difficulty predicting the dynamics of populations living in them. Here we show how realistic and replicable individual-based models can bridge the gap between non-spatial population theory and non-dynamic landscape ecology. A major strength of the approach is its ability to identify population vulnerabilities not detected by standard population viability analyses.