Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Seismic vulnerability of existing masonry buildings: Nonlinear parametric analysis

Existing masonry structures are usually associated to a high seismic vulnerability, mainly due to the properties of the materials, weak connections between floors and load-bearing walls, high mass of the masonry walls and flexibility of the floors. For these reasons, the seismic performance of existing masonry structures has received much attention in the last decades. This study presents the parametric analysis taking into account the deviations on features of the gaioleiro buildings - Portuguese building typology. The main objective of the parametric analysis is to compare the seismic performance of the structure as a function of the variations of its properties with respect to the response of a reference model. The parametric analysis was carried out for two types of structural analysis, namely for the non-linear dynamic analysis with time integration and for the pushover analysis with distribution of forces proportional to the inertial forces of the structure. The Young's modulus of the masonry walls, Young's modulus of the timber floors, the compressive and tensile non-linear properties (strength and fracture energy) were the properties considered in both type of analysis. Additionally, in the dynamic analysis, the influences of the vis-cous damping and of the vertical component of the earthquake were evaluated. A pushover analysis proportional to the modal displacement of the first mode in each direction was also carried out. The results shows that the Young's modulus of the masonry walls, the Young's modulus of the timber floors and the compressive non-linear properties are the pa-rameters that most influence the seismic performance of this type of tall and weak existing masonry structures. Furthermore, it is concluded that that the stiffness of the floors influences significantly the strength capacity and the collapse mecha-nism of the numerical model. Thus, a study on the strengthening of the floors was also carried out. The increase of the thickness of the timber floors was the strengthening technique that presented the best seismic performance, in which the reduction of the out-of-plane displacements of the masonry walls is highlighted.

Masonry macro-block analysis

The structural analysis involves the definition of the model and selection of the analysis type. The model should represent the stiffness, the mass and the loads of the structure. The structures can be represented using simplified models, such as the lumped mass models, and advanced models resorting the Finite Element Method (FEM) and Discrete Element Method (DEM). Depending on the characteristics of the structure, different types of analysis can be used such as limit analysis, linear and non-linear static analysis and linear and non-linear dynamic analysis. Unreinforced masonry structures present low tensile strength and the linear analyses seem to not be adequate for assessing their structural behaviour. On the other hand, the static and dynamic non-linear analyses are complex, since they involve large time computational requirements and advanced knowledge of the practitioner. The non-linear analysis requires advanced knowledge on the material properties, analysis tools and interpretation of results. The limit analysis with macro-blocks can be assumed as a more practical method in the estimation of maximum load capacity of structure. Furthermore, the limit analysis require a reduced number of parameters, which is an advantage for the assessment of ancient and historical masonry structures, due to the difficult in obtaining reliable data.

Electronic tongue: a versatile tool for mineral and fruit-flavored waters recognition

Natural mineral waters (still), effervescent natural mineral waters (sparkling) and aromatized waters with fruit-flavors (still or sparkling) are an emerging market. In this work, the capability of a potentiometric electronic tongue, comprised with lipid polymeric membranes, to quantitatively estimate routinely quality physicochemical parameters (pH and conductivity) as well as to qualitatively classify water samples according to the type of water was evaluated. The study showed that a linear discriminant model, based on 21 sensors selected by the simulated annealing algorithm, could correctly classify 100 % of the water samples (leave-one out cross-validation). This potential was further demonstrated by applying a repeated K-fold cross-validation (guaranteeing that at least 15 % of independent samples were only used for internal-validation) for which 96 % of correct classifications were attained. The satisfactory recognition performance of the E-tongue could be attributed to the pH, conductivity, sugars and organic acids contents of the studied waters, which turned out in significant differences of sweetness perception indexes and total acid flavor. Moreover, the E-tongue combined with multivariate linear regression models, based on sub-sets of sensors selected by the simulated annealing algorithm, could accurately estimate waters pH (25 sensors: R 2 equal to 0.99 and 0.97 for leave-one-out or repeated K-folds cross-validation) and conductivity (23 sensors: R 2 equal to 0.997 and 0.99 for leave-one-out or repeated K-folds cross-validation). So, the overall satisfactory results achieved, allow envisaging a potential future application of electronic tongue devices for bottled water analysis and classification.

Morphometric analysis of Capitella capitata (Polychaeta, Capitellidae)

Accurate size measurements are fundamental in characterizing the population structure and secondary production of a species. The purpose of this study was to determine the best morphometric parameter to estimate the size of individuals of Capitella capitata (Fabricius, 1780). The morphometric analysis was applied to individuals collected in the intertidal zones of two beaches on the northern coast of the state of São Paulo, Brazil: São Francisco and Araçá. The following measurements were taken: the width and length (height) of the 4th, 5th and 7th setigers, and the length of the thoracic region (first nine setigers). The area and volume of these setigers were calculated and a linear regression analysis was applied to the data. The data were log-transformed to fit the allometric equation y = ax b into a straight line (log y = log a + b * log x). The measurements which best correlated with the thoracic length in individuals from both beaches were the length of setiger 5 (r² = 0.722; p<0.05 in São Francisco and r² = 0.795; p<0.05 in Araçá) and the area of setiger 7 (r² = 0.705; p<0.05 in São Francisco and r² = 0.634; p<0.05 in Araçá). According to these analyses, the length of setiger 5 and/or the area of setiger 7 are the best parameters to evaluate the growth of individuals of C. capitata.

Variation in cuticular hydrocarbons among strains of the Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto by analysis of cuticular hydrocarbons using gas liquid chromatography of larvae

Cuticular hydrocarbons of larvae of individual strains of the Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto were investigated using gas liquid chromatography. Biomedical discriminant analysis involving multivariate statistics suggests that there was clear hydrocarbon difference between the Gambian(G3), the Nigerian (16CSS and, its malathion resistant substrain, REFMA) and the Tanzanian (KWA) strains. The high degree of segregation (95%) in hydrocarbons among the four strains investigated indicates that further analysis is needed to enable understanding of hydrocarbon variation in samples of An. gambiae especially from areas where these populations co-exist.

IEF pattern classification-derived criteria for the identification of epoetin-delta in urine.

Epoetin-delta (Dynepo Shire Pharmaceuticals, Basing stoke, UK) is a synthetic form of erythropoietin (EPO) whose resemblance with endogenous EPO makes it hard to identify using the classical identification criteria. Urine samples collected from six healthy volunteers treated with epoetin-delta injections and from a control population were immuno-purified and analyzed with the usual IEF method. On the basis of the EPO profiles integration, a linear multivariate model was computed for discriminant analysis. For each sample, a pattern classification algorithm returned a bands distribution and intensity score (bands intensity score) saying how representative this sample is of one of the two classes, positive or negative. Effort profiles were also integrated in the model. The method yielded a good sensitivity versus specificity relation and was used to determine the detection window of the molecule following multiple injections. The bands intensity score, which can be generalized to epoetin-alpha and epoetin-beta, is proposed as an alternative criterion and a supplementary evidence for the identification of EPO abuse.

Analysis of antenal sensilla patterns of Rhodnius prolixus from Colombia and Venezuela

Antennal sensilla patterns were used to analyze population variation of domestic Rhodnius prolixus from six departments and states representing three biogeographical regions of Colombia and Venezuela. Discriminant analysis of the patterns of mechanoreceptors and of three types of chemoreceptors on the pedicel and flagellar segments showed clear differentiation between R. prolixus populations east and west of the Andean Cordillera. The distribution of thick and thin-walled trichoids on the second flagellar segment also showed correlation with latitude, but this was not seen in the patterns of other sensilla. The results of the sensilla patterns appear to be reflecting biogeographic features or population isolation rather than characters associated with different habitats and lend support to the idea that domestic R. prolixus originated in the eastern region of the Andes.

Analysis and estimative of schistosomiasis prevalence for the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using multiple regression with social and environmental spatial data

The aim of this work is to establish a relationship between schistosomiasis prevalence and social-environmental variables, in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, through multiple linear regression. The final regression model was established, after a variables selection phase, with a set of spatial variables which contains the summer minimum temperature, human development index, and vegetation type variables. Based on this model, a schistosomiasis risk map was built for Minas Gerais.

Capillaria spp. eggs in Patagonian archaeological sites: statistical analysis of morphometric data

Discriminant analysis was used to identify eggs of Capillaria spp. at specific level found in organic remains from an archaeological site in Patagonia, Argentina, dated of 6,540 ± 110 years before present. In order to distinguish eggshell morphology 149 eggs were measured and grouped into four arbitrary subsets. The analysis used on egg width and length discriminated them into different morphotypes (Wilks' lambda = 0.381, p < 0.05). The correlation analysis suggests that width was the most important variable to discriminate among the Capillaria spp. egg morphotypes (Pearson coefficient = 0.950, p < 0.05). The study of eggshell patterns, the relative frequency in the sample, and the morphometric data allowed us to correlate the four morphotypes with Capillaria species.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) the new parameter of 2D texture analysis for the evaluation of 3D bone micro architecture status

X-ray is a technology that is used for numerous applications in the medical field. The process of X-ray projection gives a 2-dimension (2D) grey-level texture from a 3- dimension (3D) object. Until now no clear demonstration or correlation has positioned the 2D texture analysis as a valid indirect evaluation of the 3D microarchitecture. TBS is a new texture parameter based on the measure of the experimental variogram. TBS evaluates the variation between 2D image grey-levels. The aim of this study was to evaluate existing correlations between 3D bone microarchitecture parameters - evaluated from μCT reconstructions - and the TBS value, calculated on 2D projected images. 30 dried human cadaveric vertebrae were acquired on a micro-scanner (eXplorer Locus, GE) at isotropic resolution of 93 μm. 3D vertebral body models were used. The following 3D microarchitecture parameters were used: Bone volume fraction (BV/TV), Trabecular thickness (TbTh), trabecular space (TbSp), trabecular number (TbN) and connectivity density (ConnD). 3D/2D projections has been done by taking into account the Beer-Lambert Law at X-ray energy of 50, 100, 150 KeV. TBS was assessed on 2D projected images. Correlations between TBS and the 3D microarchitecture parameters were evaluated using a linear regression analysis. Paired T-test is used to assess the X-ray energy effects on TBS. Multiple linear regressions (backward) were used to evaluate relationships between TBS and 3D microarchitecture parameters using a bootstrap process. BV/TV of the sample ranged from 18.5 to 37.6% with an average value at 28.8%. Correlations' analysis showedthat TBSwere strongly correlatedwith ConnD(0.856≤r≤0.862; p<0.001),with TbN (0.805≤r≤0.810; p<0.001) and negatively with TbSp (−0.714≤r≤−0.726; p<0.001), regardless X-ray energy. Results show that lower TBS values are related to "degraded" microarchitecture, with low ConnD, low TbN and a high TbSp. The opposite is also true. X-ray energy has no effect onTBS neither on the correlations betweenTBS and the 3Dmicroarchitecture parameters. In this study, we demonstrated that TBS was significantly correlated with 3D microarchitecture parameters ConnD and TbN, and negatively with TbSp, no matter what X-ray energy has been used. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled ECTS 2011. Disclosure of interest: None declared.

Sexual dimorphism of the human mandible: demonstration by elliptical Fourier analysis.

A new quantitative approach of the mandibular sexual dimorphism, based on computer-aided image analysis and elliptical Fourier analysis of the mandibular outline in lateral view is presented. This method was applied to a series of 117 dentulous mandibles from 69 male and 48 female individuals native of Rhenish countries. Statistical discriminant analysis of the elliptical Fourier harmonics allowed the demonstration of a significant sexual dimorphism in 97.1% of males and 91.7% of females, i.e. in a higher proportion than in previous studies using classical metrical approaches. This original method opens interesting perspectives for increasing the accuracy of sex identification in current anthropological practice and in forensic procedures.

Prediction of fat-free mass using bioelectrical impedance analysis in young adults from five populations of African origin.

Background/objectives:Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is used in population and clinical studies as a technique for estimating body composition. Because of significant under-representation in existing literature, we sought to develop and validate predictive equation(s) for BIA for studies in populations of African origin.Subjects/methods:Among five cohorts of the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study, height, weight, waist circumference and body composition, using isotope dilution, were measured in 362 adults, ages 25-45 with mean body mass indexes ranging from 24 to 32. BIA measures of resistance and reactance were measured using tetrapolar placement of electrodes and the same model of analyzer across sites (BIA 101Q, RJL Systems). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop equations for predicting fat-free mass (FFM), as measured by isotope dilution; covariates included sex, age, waist, reactance and height(2)/resistance, along with dummy variables for each site. Developed equations were then tested in a validation sample; FFM predicted by previously published equations were tested in the total sample.Results:A site-combined equation and site-specific equations were developed. The mean differences between FFM (reference) and FFM predicted by the study-derived equations were between 0.4 and 0.6âeuro0/00kg (that is, 1% difference between the actual and predicted FFM), and the measured and predicted values were highly correlated. The site-combined equation performed slightly better than the site-specific equations and the previously published equations.Conclusions:Relatively small differences exist between BIA equations to estimate FFM, whether study-derived or published equations, although the site-combined equation performed slightly better than others. The study-derived equations provide an important tool for research in these understudied populations.