Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

An investigation into the interference rejection capability of a linear array in a wireless communications system

The suitable use of an array antenna at the base station of a wireless communications system can result in improvement in the signal-to-interference ratio (SIR). In general, the SIR is a function of the direction of arrival of the desired signal and depends on the configuration of the array, the number of elements, and their spacing. In this paper, we consider a uniform linear array antenna and study the effect of varying the number of its elements and inter-element spacing on the SIR performance. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A test of the hypothesis of ecological equivalence in an Australian subtropical rain forest

We tested the hypothesis that tree species in a subtropical rain forest in south-east Queensland are ecologically equivalent and therefore have identical environmental requirements for their regeneration. We assessed the evidence that juveniles of species differed in their distributions in treefall gap microsites and along gradients of light availability, soil pH, soil PO4-P availability and soil NO3-N availability. Pairwise comparisons were made on a subset of the common species selected on the basis that they showed a relatively high level of positive association, and would therefore, a priori, be expected to have similar regeneration requirements. Detailed comparisons between the species failed to demonstrate evidence for species differentiation with respect to their tolerance of the disturbance associated with gap microsites or to the gradient of NO3-N availability. However, species differed markedly in their distributions along the soil pH gradient and along the gradients of light availability and soil PO4-P availability. The overall level of ecological differentiation between the species is high: seven out of the 10 possible species pairings showed evidence for ecological differentiation. Such niche differentiation amongst the juveniles of tree species may play an important role in maintaining the species richness of rain-forest communities.

Computation of the linear elastic properties of random porous materials with a wide variety of microstructure

A finite-element method is used to study the elastic properties of random three-dimensional porous materials with highly interconnected pores. We show that Young's modulus, E, is practically independent of Poisson's ratio of the solid phase, nu(s), over the entire solid fraction range, and Poisson's ratio, nu, becomes independent of nu(s) as the percolation threshold is approached. We represent this behaviour of nu in a flow diagram. This interesting but approximate behaviour is very similar to the exactly known behaviour in two-dimensional porous materials. In addition, the behaviour of nu versus nu(s) appears to imply that information in the dilute porosity limit can affect behaviour in the percolation threshold limit. We summarize the finite-element results in terms of simple structure-property relations, instead of tables of data, to make it easier to apply the computational results. Without using accurate numerical computations, one is limited to various effective medium theories and rigorous approximations like bounds and expansions. The accuracy of these equations is unknown for general porous media. To verify a particular theory it is important to check that it predicts both isotropic elastic moduli, i.e. prediction of Young's modulus alone is necessary but not sufficient. The subtleties of Poisson's ratio behaviour actually provide a very effective method for showing differences between the theories and demonstrating their ranges of validity. We find that for moderate- to high-porosity materials, none of the analytical theories is accurate and, at present, numerical techniques must be relied upon.

Linear ketenimines. Variable structures of C,C-dicyanoketenimines and C,C-bis-sulfonylketenimines

C,C-Dicyanoketenimines 10a-c were generated by flash vacuum thermolysis of ketene NS-acetals 9a-c or by thermal or photochemical decomposition of alpha-azido-,beta-cyanocinnamonitrile 11. In the latter reaction, 3,3-dicyano-2-phenyl-1-azirine 12 is also formed. IR spectroscopy of the keteniminines isolated in Ar matrixes or as neat films, NMR spectroscopy of 10c, and theoretical calculations (B3LYP/6-31G*) demonstrate that these ketenimines have variable geometry, being essentially linear along the CCN-R framework in polar media (neat films and solution), but in the gas phase or Ar matrix they are bent, as is usual for ketenimines. Experiments and calculations agree that a single CN substituent as in 13 is not enough to enforce linearity, and sulfonyl groups are less effective that cyano groups in causing linearity. C,C-Bis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimines 4-5 and a C-cyano-C-(methylsulfonyl)ketenimine 15 are not linear. The compound p-O2NC6H4N=C= C(COOMe)2 previously reported in the literature is probably somewhat linearized along the CCNR moiety. A computational survey (B3LYP/6-31G*) of the inversion barrier at nitrogen indicates that electronegative C-substituents dramatically lower the barrier; this is also true of N-acyl substituents. Increasing polarity causes lower barriers. Although N-alkylbis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimines are not calculated to be linear, the barriers are so low that crystal lattice forces can induce planarity in N-methylbis(methylsulfonyl)ketenimine 3.

A compartmental model of hepatic disposition kinetics: 1. Model development and application to linear kinetics

The conventional convection-dispersion model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. The extension of this model to include nonlinear kinetics and zonal heterogeneity of the liver is not straightforward and requires numerical solution of partial differential equation, which is not available in standard nonlinear regression analysis software. In this paper, we describe an alternative compartmental model representation of hepatic disposition (including elimination). The model allows the use of standard software for data analysis and accurately describes the outflow concentration-time profile for a vascular marker after bolus injection into the liver. In an evaluation of a number of different compartmental models, the most accurate model required eight vascular compartments, two of them with back mixing. In addition, the model includes two adjacent secondary vascular compartments to describe the tail section of the concentration-time profile for a reference marker. The model has the added flexibility of being easy to modify to model various enzyme distributions and nonlinear elimination. Model predictions of F, MTT, CV2, and concentration-time profile as well as parameter estimates for experimental data of an eliminated solute (palmitate) are comparable to those for the extended convection-dispersion model.

Global job satisfaction and facet description: The moderating role of facet importance

Recent research support sLocke's (1976) model of facet satisfaction in which the range of affect of objectively defined facet descriptions is moderated by subjective evaluations of facet importance (McFarlin & Rice, 1992). This study examined the utility of Locke's moderated model of face t satisfaction for the prediction of organizationally important global measures of job satisfaction. A large dataset of two groups of workers allowed testing over different time periods and across a broad range of satisfaction measures. The hypothesis derived from Locke's model, that global satisfaction would represent a linear function of facet satisfaction (i.e., facet description x facet importance), was not supported. Instead, a simple (have-want) discrepancy model (operationalized as facet description) provided the most consistent set of predictors. The results suggests that workers, when providing global measures of job satisfaction, may use cognitive heuristics to reduce the complexity of facet description x importance calculations. The implications of these data for Locke's model and directions for future research are outlined.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

Product form approximations for highly linear loss networks with trunk reservation

Admission controls, such as trunk reservation, are often used in loss networks to optimise their performance. Since the numerical evaluation of performance measures is complex, much attention has been given to finding approximation methods. The Erlang Fixed-Point (EFP) approximation, which is based on an independent blocking assumption, has been used for networks both with and without controls. Several more elaborate approximation methods which account for dependencies in blocking behaviour have been developed for the uncontrolled setting. This paper is an exploratory investigation of extensions and synthesis of these methods to systems with controls, in particular, trunk reservation. In order to isolate the dependency factor, we restrict our attention to a highly linear network. We will compare the performance of the resulting approximations against the benchmark of the EFP approximation extended to the trunk reservation setting. By doing this, we seek to gain insight into the critical factors in constructing an effective approximation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.