Optimization and finite element analysis for reliable electronic packaging

This paper demonstrates a modeling and design approach that couples computational mechanics techniques with numerical optimisation and statistical models for virtual prototyping and testing in different application areas concerning reliability of eletronic packages. The integrated software modules provide a design engineer in the electronic manufacturing sector with fast design and process solutions by optimizing key parameters and taking into account complexity of certain operational conditions. The integrated modeling framework is obtained by coupling the multi-phsyics finite element framework - PHYSICA - with the numerical optimisation tool - VisualDOC into a fully automated design tool for solutions of electronic packaging problems. Response Surface Modeling Methodolgy and Design of Experiments statistical tools plus numerical optimisaiton techniques are demonstrated as a part of the modeling framework. Two different problems are discussed and solved using the integrated numerical FEM-Optimisation tool. First, an example of thermal management of an electronic package on a board is illustrated. Location of the device is optimized to ensure reduced junction temperature and stress in the die subject to certain cooling air profile and other heat dissipating active components. In the second example thermo-mechanical simulations of solder creep deformations are presented to predict flip-chip reliability and subsequently used to optimise the life-time of solder interconnects under thermal cycling.

Response Surface Modeling and Optimisation for Reliable Electronic Products

The aim of integrating computational mechanics (FEA and CFD) and optimization tools is to speed up dramatically the design process in different application areas concerning reliability in electronic packaging. Design engineers in the electronics manufacturing sector may use these tools to predict key design parameters and configurations (i.e. material properties, product dimensions, design at PCB level. etc) that will guarantee the required product performance. In this paper a modeling strategy coupling computational mechanics techniques with numerical optimization is presented and demonstrated with two problems. The integrated modeling framework is obtained by coupling the multi-physics analysis tool PHYSICA - with the numerical optimization package - Visua/DOC into a fuJly automated design tool for applications in electronic packaging. Thermo-mechanical simulations of solder creep deformations are presented to predict flip-chip reliability and life-time under thermal cycling. Also a thermal management design based on multi-physics analysis with coupled thermal-flow-stress modeling is discussed. The Response Surface Modeling Approach in conjunction with Design of Experiments statistical tools is demonstrated and used subsequently by the numerical optimization techniques as a part of this modeling framework. Predictions for reliable electronic assemblies are achieved in an efficient and systematic manner.

Lifetime assessment of electronic components for high reliability aerospace applications

This paper details a modelling approach for assessing the in-service (field) reliability and thermal fatigue life-time of electronic package interconnects for components used in the assembly of an aerospace system. The Finite Element slice model of a Plastic Ball Grid Array (PBGA) package and suitable energy based damage models for crack length predictions are used in this study. Thermal fatigue damage induced in tin-lead solder joints are investigated by simulating the crack growth process under a set of prescribed field temperature profiles that cover the period of operational life. The overall crack length in the solder joint for all different thermal profiles and number of cycles for each profile is predicted using a superposition technique. The effect of using an underfill is also presented. A procedure for verifying the field lifetime predictions for the electronic package by using reliability assessment under Accelerated Thermal Cycle (ATC) testing is also briefly outlined.

Reliability analysis of SiP structures

This presentation discusses latest developments in SiP technology and the challenges for design in terms of manufacture and reliability. It presents results from a UK government funded project that aims to develop modelling techniques that will assess the thermo-mechanical reliability of SiP structures such as (i) stacked die, (ii) side-by-side dies and (iii) embedded die. Finite element analysis coupled with numerical optimisation and uncertainty analysis is used is used to model the reliability of a particular package design. In particular, the damage (energy density) in the lead free solder interconnects under accelerated temperature cycling is predicted and used to observe the fatigue life-time. Warpage of the structure is also investigated

Computational approach for reliable and robust system-in-package design

A computational modelling approach integrated with optimisation and statistical methods that can aid the development of reliable and robust electronic packages and systems is presented. The design for reliability methodology is demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure. In this study the focus is on the procedure for representing the uncertainties in the package design parameters, their impact on reliability and robustness of the package design and how these can be included in the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of thermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is conducted using non-linear transient finite element simulations. Key system responses of interest, the fatigue life-time of the lead-free solder interconnects and warpage of the package, are predicted and used subsequently for design purposes. The design tasks are to identify the optimal SiP designs by varying several package input parameters so that the reliability and the robustness of the package are improved and in the same time specified performance criteria are also satisfied

Reliability based design optimisation for system-in-package

This paper discusses a reliability based optimisation modelling approach demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure integrated by stacking dies one upon the other. In this investigation the focus is on the strategy for handling the uncertainties in the package design inputs and their implementation into the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of fhermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is utilised to predict the fatigue life-time of the lead-free board level solder interconnects and warpage of the package under thermal cycling. The SiP characterisation is obtained through the exploitation of Reduced Order Models (ROM) constructed using high fidelity analysis and Design of Experiments (DoE) methods. The design task is to identify the optimal SiP design specification by varying several package input parameters so that a specified target reliability of the solder joints is achieved and in the same time design requirements and package performance criteria are met

A prognostic assessment method for power electronics modules

This paper describes a prognostic method which combines the physics of failure models with probability reasoning algorithm. The measured real time data (temperature vs. time) was used as the loading profile for the PoF simulations. The response surface equation of the accumulated plastic strain in the solder interconnect in terms of two variables (average temperature, and temperature amplitude) was constructed. This response surface equation was incorporated into the lifetime model of solder interconnect, and therefore the remaining life time of the solder component under current loading condition was predicted. The predictions from PoF models were also used to calculate the conditional probability table for a Bayesian Network, which was used to take into account of the impacts of the health observations of each product in lifetime prediction. The prognostic prediction in the end was expressed as the probability for the product to survive the expected future usage. As a demonstration, this method was applied to an IGBT power module used for aircraft applications.

Response consistency in young adolescents’ drug use self-reports: a recanting rate analysis.

Aims: To assess the reliability of drug use reports by young respondents, this study examined the extent of recanting previous drug use reports within an ongoing longitudinal survey of adolescent drug use. Here, recanting was defined as a positive report of life-time drug use that was subsequently denied 1 year later. The covariates of recanting were also studied. Design: An ongoing longitudinal survey of young adolescents (Belfast Youth Development Study) in Northern Ireland. Setting: Pencil and paper questionnaires were administered to pupils within participating schools. Measurements: Measures analysed included (a) recanting rates across 13 substances, (b) educational characteristics, (c) offending behaviour and (d) socioeconomic status. Findings: High levels of drug use recanting were identified, ranging from 7% of past alcohol use to 87% of past magic mushroom use. Recanting increased with the social stigma of the substance used. Denying past alcohol use was associated with being male, attending a catholic school, having positive attitudes towards school, having negative education expectations and not reporting any offending behaviour. Recanting alcohol intoxication was associated with being male and not reporting serious offending behaviour. Cannabis recanting was associated with having negative education expectations, receiving drugs education and not reporting serious offending behaviour. Conclusions: The high levels of recanting uncovered cast doubts on the reliability of drug use reports from young adolescents. Failure to address this response error may lead to biased prevalence estimates, particularly within school surveys and drug education evaluation trials.

House value as an indicator of cumulative wealth is strongly related to morbidity and mortality risk in older people: a census-based cross-sectional and longitudinal study

Background: There has been relatively little research into health inequalities in older populations. This may be partly explained by the difficulty in identifying appropriate indicators of socio-economic status for older people. Ideally, indicators of socio-economic status to be used in studies of health inequalities in older populations should incorporate some measure of life-time socio-economic standing, and house value may fill this role. This study examined whether an indicator of accumulated wealth based on a combination of housing tenure and house value was a strong predictor of ill-health in older populations.
Methods: A total of 191 848 people aged =65 years and not living in communal establishments were identified from the 2001 Northern Ireland Census and followed for 5 years. Self-reported health and mortality risk by housing tenure/house value groupings were examined while controlling for a range of other demographic and socio-economic characteristics.
Results: Housing tenure/house value was highly correlated with other indicators of socio-economic status. Public-sector renters had worse self-reported health and higher mortality rates than owner occupiers but significant gradients were also found between those living in the highest-and lowest-valued owner-occupier properties. The relationship between housing tenure and value was unchanged by adjustment for indicators of social support and quality of the physical environment. Adjustment for limiting long-term illness and self-reported health at baseline narrowed but did not eliminate the health gains associated with living in more expensive housing.
Conclusions: House value of residence is an accessible and powerful indicator of accumulated wealth that is highly correlated with current health status and predictive of future mortality risk in older populations.

On the universality of a one-dimensional model of a rice pile

A one-dimensional model of a rice pile is numerically studied for different driving mechanisms and different levels of medium disorder. The universality of the scaling exponents for the transit time distribution and avalanche size distribution is discussed. (C) 1997 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Thermal fatigue analysis of solar panel structure for micro-satellite applications

Thermal fatigue analysis based on 2D finite difference and 3D finite element methods is carried out to study the performance of solar panel structure during micro-satellite life time. Solar panel primary structure consists of honeycomb structure and composite laminates. The 2D finite difference (I-DEAS) model yields predictions of the temperature profile during one orbit. Then, 3D finite element analysis (ANSYS) is applied to predict thermal fatigue damage of solar panel structure. Meshing the whole structure with 2D multi-layer shell elements with sandwich option is not efficient, as it misses thermal response of the honeycomb structure. So we applied a mixed approach between 3D solid and 2D shell elements to model the solar panel structure without the sandwich option.

Delay times and rates for Type Ia supernovae and thermonuclear explosions from double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass models

We present theoretical delay times and rates of thermonuclear explosions that are thought to produce Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), including the double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass model, using the population synthesis binary evolution code startrack. If detonations of sub-Chandrasekhar mass carbon-oxygen white dwarfs following a detonation in an accumulated layer of helium on the white dwarf's surface ('double-detonation' models) are able to produce thermonuclear explosions which are characteristically similar to those of SNe Ia, then these sub-Chandrasekhar mass explosions may account for at least some substantial fraction of the observed SN Ia rate. Regardless of whether all double-detonations look like 'normal' SNe Ia, in any case the explosions are expected to be bright and thus potentially detectable. Additionally, we find that the delay time distribution of double-detonation sub-Chandrasekhar mass SNe Ia can be divided into two distinct formation channels: the 'prompt' helium-star channel with delay times

Investigation of the M2/G2/1/ ∞, N Queue with Restricted Admission of Priority Customers and its Application to HSDPA Mobile Systems

This paper investigates a queuing system for QoS optimization of multimedia traffic consisting of aggregated streams with diverse QoS requirements transmitted to a mobile terminal over a common downlink shared channel. The queuing system, proposed for buffer management of aggregated single-user traffic in the base station of High-Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA), allows for optimum loss/delay/jitter performance for end-user multimedia traffic with delay-tolerant non-real-time streams and partially loss tolerant real-time streams. In the queuing system, the real-time stream has non-preemptive priority in service but the number of the packets in the system is restricted by a constant. The non-real-time stream has no service priority but is allowed unlimited access to the system. Both types of packets arrive in the stationary Poisson flow. Service times follow general distribution depending on the packet type. Stability condition for the model is derived. Queue length distribution for both types of customers is calculated at arbitrary epochs and service completion epochs. Loss probability for priority packets is computed. Waiting time distribution in terms of Laplace-Stieltjes transform is obtained for both types of packets. Mean waiting time and jitter are computed. Numerical examples presented demonstrate the effectiveness of the queuing system for QoS optimization of buffered end-user multimedia traffic with aggregated real-time and non-real-time streams.

The effect of helium accretion efficiency on rates of Type Ia supernovae: Double detonations in accreting binaries

he double-detonation explosion scenario of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) has gained increased support from the SN Ia community as a viable progenitor model, making it a promising candidate alongside the well-known single degenerate and double degenerate scenarios. We present delay times of double-detonation SNe, in which a sub-Chandrasekhar mass carbon–oxygen white dwarf (WD) accretes non-dynamically from a helium-rich companion. One of the main uncertainties in quantifying SN rates from double detonations is the (assumed) retention efficiency of He-rich matter. Therefore, we implement a new prescription for the treatment of accretion/accumulation of He-rich matter on WDs. In addition, we test how the results change depending on which criteria are assumed to lead to a detonation in the helium shell. In comparing the results to our standard case (Ruiter et al.), we find that regardless of the adopted He accretion prescription, the SN rates are reduced by only ∼25 per cent if low-mass He shells (≲0.05 M⊙) are sufficient to trigger the detonations. If more massive (0.1 M⊙) shells are needed, the rates decrease by 85 per cent and the delay time distribution is significantly changed in the new accretion model – only SNe with prompt (<500 Myr) delay times are produced. Since theoretical arguments favour low-mass He shells for normal double-detonation SNe, we conclude that the rates from double detonations are likely to be high, and should not critically depend on the adopted prescription for accretion of He.

Clinical and Cost-Effectiveness of Procalcitonin Test for Prodromal Meningococcal Disease-A Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND: Despite vaccines and improved medical intensive care, clinicians must continue to be vigilant of possible Meningococcal Disease in children. The objective was to establish if the procalcitonin test was a cost-effective adjunct for prodromal Meningococcal Disease in children presenting at emergency department with fever without source.

METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data to evaluate procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and white cell count tests as indicators of Meningococcal Disease were collected from six independent studies identified through a systematic literature search, applying PRISMA guidelines. The data included 881 children with fever without source in developed countries.The optimal cut-off value for the procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and white cell count tests, each as an indicator of Meningococcal Disease, was determined. Summary Receiver Operator Curve analysis determined the overall diagnostic performance of each test with 95% confidence intervals. A decision analytic model was designed to reflect realistic clinical pathways for a child presenting with fever without source by comparing two diagnostic strategies: standard testing using combined C-reactive protein and white cell count tests compared to standard testing plus procalcitonin test. The costs of each of the four diagnosis groups (true positive, false negative, true negative and false positive) were assessed from a National Health Service payer perspective. The procalcitonin test was more accurate (sensitivity=0.89, 95%CI=0.76-0.96; specificity=0.74, 95%CI=0.4-0.92) for early Meningococcal Disease compared to standard testing alone (sensitivity=0.47, 95%CI=0.32-0.62; specificity=0.8, 95% CI=0.64-0.9). Decision analytic model outcomes indicated that the incremental cost effectiveness ratio for the base case was £-8,137.25 (US $ -13,371.94) per correctly treated patient.

CONCLUSIONS: Procalcitonin plus standard recommended tests, improved the discriminatory ability for fatal Meningococcal Disease and was more cost-effective; it was also a superior biomarker in infants. Further research is recommended for point-of-care procalcitonin testing and Markov modelling to incorporate cost per QALY with a life-time model.