Statistical Methods for Accelerated Life Testing with Particular Reference to Resin Impregnated Paper Bushings

Electrical failure of insulation is known to be an extremal random process wherein nominally identical pro-rated specimens of equipment insulation, at constant stress fail at inordinately different times even under laboratory test conditions. In order to be able to estimate the life of power equipment, it is necessary to run long duration ageing experiments under accelerated stresses, to acquire and analyze insulation specific failure data. In the present work, Resin Impregnated Paper (RIP) a relatively new insulation system of choice used in transformer bushings, is taken as an example. The failure data has been processed using proven statistical methods, both graphical and analytical. The physical model governing insulation failure at constant accelerated stress has been assumed to be based on temperature dependent inverse power law model.

Effect of stress orientation on microstructural evolution during creep of near-lamellar Ti-47Al-2Cr-2Nb

Microstructural evolution was studied in a near-lamellar two phase (alpha(2) + gamma) Ti-47Al-2Cr-2Nb alloy under high temperature creep and exposure conditions. The aim of this study was to probe the role of stress orientation, with respect to lamellar plates, on microstructural changes during primary creep. Creep testing was complemented with SEM and TEM based microstructural characterization. It was observed that retention of excess alpha(2) resulted in an unstable microstructure. Under stress and temperature, excess alpha(2) was lost and Cr-rich precipitates formed. Depending on stress orientation, the sequence of precipitates formed was different. alpha(2) loss was accompanied by formation of the non-equilibrium C14 Laves phase when lamellar plates were oriented parallel to the stress axis. In contrast, alpha(2) loss did not result in formation of the C14 phase in perpendicular samples. It was concluded that C14 formed preferentially in certain test orientations because of its effectiveness in relieving residual stresses in alpha(2) that arose from lattice misfit and modulus mismatch. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Accelerated Life Testing under Competing Weibull Causes of Failure

Consider a J-component series system which is put on Accelerated Life Test (ALT) involving K stress variables. First, a general formulation of ALT is provided for log-location-scale family of distributions. A general stress translation function of location parameter of the component log-lifetime distribution is proposed which can accommodate standard ones like Arrhenius, power-rule, log-linear model, etc., as special cases. Later, the component lives are assumed to be independent Weibull random variables with a common shape parameter. A full Bayesian methodology is then developed by letting only the scale parameters of the Weibull component lives depend on the stress variables through the general stress translation function. Priors on all the parameters, namely the stress coefficients and the Weibull shape parameter, are assumed to be log-concave and independent of each other. This assumption is to facilitate Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior. The samples thus generated from the joint posterior is then used to obtain the Bayesian point and interval estimates of the system reliability at usage condition.

Bayesian Accelerated Life Testing under Competing Weibull Causes of Failure

Consider a J-component series system which is put on Accelerated Life Test (ALT) involving K stress variables. First, a general formulation of ALT is provided for log-location-scale family of distributions. A general stress translation function of location parameter of the component log-lifetime distribution is proposed which can accommodate standard ones like Arrhenius, power-rule, log-linear model, etc., as special cases. Later, the component lives are assumed to be independent Weibull random variables with a common shape parameter. A full Bayesian methodology is then developed by letting only the scale parameters of the Weibull component lives depend on the stress variables through the general stress translation function. Priors on all the parameters, namely the stress coefficients and the Weibull shape parameter, are assumed to be log-concave and independent of each other. This assumption is to facilitate Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior. The samples thus generated from the joint posterior is then used to obtain the Bayesian point and interval estimates of the system reliability at usage condition.

The fatigue life estimation of notched specimens under random loading

The LY12-cz aluminium alloy sheet specimens with a central hole were tested under constant amplitude loading, Rayleigh narrow band random loading and a typical fighter broad band random loading. The fatigue life was estimated by means of the nominal stress and the Miner's rule. The stress cycles were distinguished by the rainflow count, range count and peak value count, respectively. The comparison between the estimated results and the test results was made. The effects of random loading sequence and small load cycles on fatigue life were also studied.

Life Expectancy, Human Capital, Social Security and Growth

Revised: 2006-11.-- Published as an article in: Journal of Public Economics 90(12), December, 2006, pp. 2323-2349.

New signal processing algorithms for automated external defibrillators

[ES]La fibrilación ventricular (VF) es el primer ritmo registrado en el 40\,\% de las muertes súbitas por paro cardiorrespiratorio extrahospitalario (PCRE). El único tratamiento eficaz para la FV es la desfibrilación mediante una descarga eléctrica. Fuera del hospital, la descarga se administra mediante un desfibrilador externo automático (DEA), que previamente analiza el electrocardiograma (ECG) del paciente y comprueba si presenta un ritmo desfibrilable. La supervivencia en un caso de PCRE depende fundamentalmente de dos factores: la desfibrilación temprana y la resucitación cardiopulmonar (RCP) temprana, que prolonga la FV y por lo tanto la oportunidad de desfibrilación. Para un correcto análisis del ritmo cardiaco es necesario interrumpir la RCP, ya que, debido a las compresiones torácicas, la RCP introduce artefactos en el ECG. Desafortunadamente, la interrupción de la RCP afecta negativamente al éxito en la desfibrilación. En 2003 se aprobó el uso del DEA en pacientes entre 1 y 8 años. Los DEA, que originalmente se diseñaron para pacientes adultos, deben discriminar de forma precisa las arritmias pediátricas para que su uso en niños sea seguro. Varios DEAs se han adaptado para uso pediátrico, bien demostrando la precisión de los algoritmos para adultos con arritmias pediátricas, o bien mediante algoritmos específicos para arritmias pediátricas. Esta tesis presenta un nuevo algoritmo DEA diseñado conjuntamente para pacientes adultos y pediátricos. El algoritmo se ha probado exhaustivamente en bases de datos acordes a los requisitos de la American Heart Association (AHA), y en registros de resucitación con y sin artefacto RCP. El trabajo comenzó con una larga fase experimental en la que se recopilaron y clasificaron retrospectivamente un total de 1090 ritmos pediátricos. Además, se revisó una base de arritmias de adultos y se añadieron 928 nuevos ritmos de adultos. La base de datos final contiene 2782 registros, 1270 se usaron para diseñar el algoritmo y 1512 para validarlo. A continuación, se diseñó un nuevo algoritmo DEA compuesto de cuatro subalgoritmos. Estos subalgoritmos están basados en un conjunto de nuevos parámetros para la detección de arritmias, calculados en diversos dominios de la señal, como el tiempo, la frecuencia, la pendiente o la función de autocorrelación. El algoritmo cumple las exigencias de la AHA para la detección de ritmos desfibrilables y no-desfibrilables tanto en pacientes adultos como en pediátricos. El trabajo concluyó con el análisis del comportamiento del algoritmo con episodios reales de resucitación. En los ritmos que no contenían artefacto RCP se cumplieron las exigencias de la AHA. Posteriormente, se estudió la precisión del algoritmo durante las compresiones torácicas, antes y después de filtrar el artefacto RCP. Para suprimir el artefacto se utilizó un nuevo método desarrollado a lo largo de la tesis. Los ritmos desfibrilables se detectaron de forma precisa tras el filtrado, los no-desfibrilables sin embargo no.

Life History, Diet, Abundance and Distribution, and Length-Frequencies of Selected Invertebrates in Florida Bay, Everglades National Park, Florida

This report presents information on the life history, diet, abundance and distribution, and length-frequency distributions of five invertebrates in Florida Bay, Everglades National Park. Collections were made with an otter trawl in basins on a bi-monthly basis. Non-parametric statistics were used to test spatial and temporal differences in the abundance of invertebrates when numbers were appropriate (i. e., $25). Invertebrate species are presented in four sections. The sections on Life History, and Diet were derived from the literature. The section on Abundance and Distribution consists of data from otter-trawl collections. In addition, comparisons with other studies are included here following our results. The section on Length-frequency Distributions consists of length measurements from all collections, except 1984-1985 when no measurements were taken. Length-frequency distributions were used, when possible, to estimate life stage captured, spawning times, recruitment into Florida Bay for those species which spawn outside the Bay, and growth. Additional material from the literature was added when appropriate. (PDF contains 39 pages)

A seven year study of the life cycle of the Mayfly Ephemera danica

Ephemera danica Müller, 1764 (Ephemeroptera) is one of the largest mayflies found in the British Isles with some females reaching over 30 mm. It is a common and widespread species found in rivers, lakes and streams throughout Europe and is particularly abundant in many of the lowland rivers of the British Isles. The larvae are burrowers – mainly found where silt accumulates below macrophytes. This article gives a general overview of research work on the factors affecting the life cycle of Ephemera danica over a seven year period (1995–2002) on two rivers, the River Test at Leckford in Hampshire and the North Wey at Tilford in Surrey.

Adolescência e sentido de vida

Esta pesquisa tem como problema de investigação o sentido de vida na adolescência. E os objetivos a alcançar foram: discutir questões atuais relativas à adolescência; analisar questões centrais da Logoterapia, propostas por Viktor Frankl; e investigar empiricamente o sentido de vida na adolescência. Na pesquisa ex post facto realizada, foram submetidas à corroboração cinco conjecturas, relacionando adolescência, sexo, orientação confessional da escola e sentido de vida. Os participantes foram 230 alunos, cuja idade variou de 16 a 18 anos, sendo 91 do sexo masculino e 139 do sexo feminino, todos eles matriculados em escolas públicas e privadas do Ensino Médio da cidade de Petrópolis, Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Foram selecionadas duas escolas públicas, uma estadual e uma municipal, além de quatro escolas privadas, sendo duas leigas e duas confessionais, que atendem alunos de classe sócio-econômica diferenciada. Utilizamos o Logo-Teste, originalmente elaborado por Elizabeth Lukas, como instrumento de medida do sentido de vida dos participantes. Das cinco conjecturas testadas, duas foram corroboradas: a de que não há diferença significativa no sentido de vida entre adolescentes do sexo masculino e do sexo feminino e a de que não há diferença significativa no sentido de vida entre adolescentes de escolas públicas e particulares leigas. Além disso, observou-se que as médias obtidas por todos os grupos de participantes situam-se na faixa da estabilidade psíquica, sem riscos de ocorrência de neurose noógena ou depressão noógena.

Desempenho cognitivo em idosos hipertensos e normotensos

A população de idosos cresce rapidamente no Brasil. A prevalência de hipertensão arterial sistêmica (HAS) e distúrbios cognitivos é elevada nesta população. Testamos a hipótese de que a HAS reduz o desempenho cognitivos em idosos. Foram selecionamos idosos hipertensos e normotensos com idade ≥ 60 < 80. O desempenho cognitivo foi avaliado pelo Cambridge Cognitive Examination Revised (CAMCOG-R), por subtestes do Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale v.3 (WAIS III), além do Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT), e o dos Trail Making Tests A/B (TMT-A/B). O desempenho cognitivo avaliado pelo escore global do CAMCOG-R e do QI estimado do WAIS III está reduzido nos idosos hipertensos mesmo quando controlado pela escolaridade, depressão, estado geral de saúde e qualidade de vida. O desempenho cognitivo em diversos domínios específicos controlados para a escolaridade, depressão, estado geral de saúde e qualidade de vida, e avaliados pelo CAMCOG-R, WAIS III, TMT-A e RAVLT também está reduzido nos idosos hipertensos. O presente estudo sugere que a HAS está associada ao declínio do desempenho cognitivo global em idosos. Notadamente, o desempenho das funções executivas está reduzido nos idosos hipertensos. Especula-se que a HAS seja um fator de risco para o declínio progressivo do desempenho cognitivo e, portanto, para o desenvolvimento de demência.

Study on shelf life of fish cake prepared from surimi of silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) during frozen storage

Surimi was prepared from silver carp with an aim to put this underutilized fish for profitable use. The mince prepared was washed twice with chilled water (5°C) using mince to water ratio (w/v) of 1:2 for 5-6 minutes each. After final dewatering to moisture content to about 80%; half the quantity of washed minced meat was mixed with cryoprotectants (4% sorbitol, 4% sucrose and 0.3% sodium tripolyphosphate) to produce surimi. The prepared surimi and the dewatered minced meat were packed in LDPE bags, frozen using a plate freezer and stored at -20°C. Surimi and dewatered minced meat from frozen storage were used as base material for production of fish cakes. These were fried at 160°C for 3 to 4 minutes before serving for organoleptic test. Changes in salt soluble nitrogen, total volatile base nitrogen, non-protein nitrogen, peroxide value and free fatty acid of surimi and dewatered mince were estimated at every ten days interval during the storage period of 3 months. The study has indicated that frozen storage of surimi could be a potential method for effective utilization of silver carp. This surimi when incorporated in fish cakes yielded products which retained the shelf life even up to 90 days of storage.

Development and shelf life evaluation of Tilapia (Orechromis spp.) marinades

Tilapia (Oreochromis spp.) consumption is limited due to its strong muddy odour and the difficulty of processing. In addition, consumption of tilapia is minimal in urban areas because of the low availability. There are no processed market products of tilapia available in Sri Lanka. Therefore, this study was designed to develop a new marinade for tilapia and to evaluate the shelf life of the product. Twelve different treatments of varying amounts of vinegar, salt, chili powder, white pepper and garlic powder were applied to filleted tilapia, and three best treatment combinations were selected using a sensory evaluation test. Processed tilapia was stored in the freezer at -4°C. Treated samples were subjected to evaluation of sensory profile: taste, odour, colour, texture and overall acceptability. Analysis of the shelf life was carried out by using the total plate count, faecal coliform test, acidity and pH at weekly intervals. Results revealed that the third treatment (vinegar 75 ml, salt 5 g, chili powder 5 g, white pepper 5 g and garlic powder 5 g) was best in terms of colour, texture, odour, taste and the overall acceptability according to the estimated medians (6, 6, 6 and 6.33 respectively). There was no significant difference between the first and the third treatment in terms of odour and overall acceptability. There was no significant difference between the three vacuum packed treatments for acidity and pH. Acidity and pH of the three treatments were at an acceptable level, which was below pH 5.3 and above 1.95% acidity. Average bacterial count was 10 colonies and 1.33x10 super(6) colonies respectively in vacuum packed treatments and bottled samples after one week. The acceptable level of bacterial colonies is 1.00x10 super(5). Vacuum packed treatments showed a one month shelf life. In conclusion, marinades can be developed from tilapia with a pleasant taste and acceptable texture.

An advanced multi-configuration stator well cooling test facility

Optimisation of cooling systems within gas turbine engines is of great interest to engine manufacturers seeking gains in performance, efficiency and component life. The effectiveness of coolant delivery is governed by complex flows within the stator wells and the interaction of main annulus and cooling air in the vicinity of the rim seals. This paper reports the development of a test facility which allows the interaction of cooling air and main gas paths to be measured at conditions representative of those found in modern gas turbine engines. The test facility features a two stage turbine with an overall pressure ratio of approximately 2.6:1. Hot air is supplied to the main annulus using a Rolls-Royce Dart compressor driven by an aero-derivative engine plant. Cooling air can be delivered to the stator wells at multiple locations and at a range of flow rates which cover bulk ingestion through to bulk egress. The facility has been designed with adaptable geometry to enable rapid changes of cooling air path configuration. The coolant delivery system allows swift and accurate changes to the flow settings such that thermal transients may be performed. Particular attention has been focused on obtaining high accuracy data, using a radio telemetry system, as well as thorough through-calibration practices. Temperature measurements can now be made on both rotating and stationary discs with a long term uncertainty in the region of 0.3 K. A gas concentration measurement system has also been developed to obtain direct measurement of re-ingestion and rim seal exchange flows. High resolution displacement sensors have been installed in order to measure hot running geometry. This paper documents the commissioning of a test facility which is unique in terms of rapid configuration changes, non-dimensional engine matching and the instrumentation density and resolution. Example data for each of the measurement systems is presented. This includes the effect of coolant flow rate on the metal temperatures within the upstream cavity of the turbine stator well, the axial displacement of the rotor assembly during a commissioning test, and the effect of coolant flow rate on mixing in the downstream cavity of the stator well. Copyright © 2010 by ASME.

Quantifying the uncertainties in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for UK wheat ethanol

Biofuels are increasingly promoted worldwide as a means for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. However, current regulatory frameworks and most academic life cycle analyses adopt a deterministic approach in determining the GHG intensities of biofuels and thus ignore the inherent risk associated with biofuel production. This study aims to develop a transparent stochastic method for evaluating UK biofuels that determines both the magnitude and uncertainty of GHG intensity on the basis of current industry practices. Using wheat ethanol as a case study, we show that the GHG intensity could span a range of 40-110 gCO2e MJ-1 when land use change (LUC) emissions and various sources of uncertainty are taken into account, as compared with a regulatory default value of 44 gCO2e MJ-1. This suggests that the current deterministic regulatory framework underestimates wheat ethanol GHG intensity and thus may not be effective in evaluating transport fuels. Uncertainties in determining the GHG intensity of UK wheat ethanol include limitations of available data at a localized scale, and significant scientific uncertainty of parameters such as soil N2O and LUC emissions. Biofuel polices should be robust enough to incorporate the currently irreducible uncertainties and flexible enough to be readily revised when better science is available. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.