Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Nonlinear dynamics of a satellite with deployable solar panel arrays

The multibody dynamics of a satellite in circular orbit, modeled as a central body with two hinge-connected deployable solar panel arrays, is investigated. Typically, the solar panel arrays are deployed in orbit using preloaded torsional springs at the hinges in a near symmetrical accordion manner, to minimize the shock loads at the hinges. There are five degrees of freedom of the interconnected rigid bodies, composed of coupled attitude motions (pitch, yaw and roll) of the central body plus relative rotations of the solar panel arrays. The dynamical equations of motion of the satellite system are derived using Kane's equations. These are then used to investigate the dynamic behavior of the system during solar panel deployment via the 7-8th-order Runge-Kutta integration algorithms and results are compared with approximate analytical solutions. Chaotic attitude motions of the completely deployed satellite in circular orbit under the influence of the gravity-gradient torques are subsequently investigated analytically using Melnikov's method and confirmed via numerical integration. The Hamiltonian equations in terms of Deprit's variables are used to facilitate the analysis. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Outsourcing and inter-intra supply chain dynamics: Strategic management issues

This article analyzes the outsourcing of information technology services, using an action inquiry methodology. Research spanned the disengagement and beginning of IT service functions transferred from work groups in the parent company to outsource teams. Results identified the importance of addressing strategic issues and inter/intra relationships between parent company team members and their outsource-counterparts. Conclusions indicate that behavioral issues such as psychological contracts within inter/intra work groups, power and trust are highly significant managerial issues in the success or failure of an outsourcing strategy.

Effector dynamics of rhythmic wrist activity and its implications for (modeling) bimanual coordination

To examine the role of the effector dynamics of the wrist in the production of rhythmic motor activity, we estimated the phase shifts between the EMG and the task-related output for a rhythmic isometric torque production task and an oscillatory movement, and found a substantial difference (45-52degrees) between the two. For both tasks, the relation between EMG and task-related output (torque or displacement) was adequately reproduced with a physiologically motivated musculoskeletal model. The model simulations demonstrated the importance of the contribution of passive structures to the overall dynamics and provided an account for the observed phase shifts in the dynamic task. Additional simulations of the musculoskeletal model with added load suggested that particular changes in the phase relation between EMG and movement may follow largely from the intrinsic muscle dynamics, rather than being the result of adaptations in the neural control of joint stiffness. The implications of these results are discussed in relation to (models of) interlimb coordination in rhythmic tasks. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fungible dynamics: There are only two types of entangling multiple-qubit interactions

What interactions are sufficient to simulate arbitrary quantum dynamics in a composite quantum system? It has been shown that all two-body Hamiltonian evolutions can be simulated using any fixed two-body entangling n-qubit Hamiltonian and fast local unitaries. By entangling we mean that every qubit is coupled to every other qubit, if not directly, then indirectly via intermediate qubits. We extend this study to the case where interactions may involve more than two qubits at a time. We find necessary and sufficient conditions for an arbitrary n-qubit Hamiltonian to be dynamically universal, that is, able to simulate any other Hamiltonian acting on n qubits, possibly in an inefficient manner. We prove that an entangling Hamiltonian is dynamically universal if and only if it contains at least one coupling term involving an even number of interacting qubits. For odd entangling Hamiltonians, i.e., Hamiltonians with couplings that involve only an odd number of qubits, we prove that dynamic universality is possible on an encoded set of n-1 logical qubits. We further prove that an odd entangling Hamiltonian can simulate any other odd Hamiltonian and classify the algebras that such Hamiltonians generate. Thus, our results show that up to local unitary operations, there are only two fundamentally different types of entangling Hamiltonian on n qubits. We also demonstrate that, provided the number of qubits directly coupled by the Hamiltonian is bounded above by a constant, our techniques can be made efficient.

Molecular dynamics simulation of the structural and dynamic properties of dioctadecyldimethyl ammoniums in organoclays

The structural and dynamic properties of dioctadecyldimethylammoniums (DODDMA) intercalated into 2:1 layered clays are investigated using isothermal-isobaric (NPT) molecular dynamics (MD) simulation. The simulated results are in reasonably good agreement with the available experimental measurements, such as X-ray diffraction (XRD), atom force microscopy (AFM), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR), and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopies. The nitrogen atoms are found to be located mainly within two layers close to the clay surface whereas methylene groups form a pseudoquadrilayer structure. The results of tilt angle and order parameter show that interior two-bond segments of alkyl chains prefer an arrangement parallel to the clay surface, whereas the segments toward end groups adopt a random orientation. In addition, the alkyl chains within the layer structure lie almost parallel to the clay surface whereas those out of the layer structure are essentially perpendicular to the surface. The trans conformations are predominant in all cases although extensive gauche conformations are observed, which is in agreement with previous simulations on n-butane. Moreover, an odd-even effect in conformation distributions is observed mainly along the chains close to the head and tail groups. The diffusion constants of both nitrogen atoms and methylene groups in these nanoconfined alkyl chains increase with the temperature and methelene position toward the tail groups.

Fock-state dynamics in Raman photoassociation of Bose-Einstein condensates

By stochastic modeling of the process of Raman photoassociation of Bose-Einstein condensates, we show that, the farther the initial quantum state is from a coherent state, the farther the one-dimensional predictions are from those of the commonly used zero-dimensional approach. We compare the dynamics of condensates, initially in different quantum states, finding that, even when the quantum prediction for an initial coherent state is relatively close to the Gross-Pitaevskii prediction, an initial Fock state gives qualitatively different predictions. We also show that this difference is not present in a single-mode type of model, but that the quantum statistics assume a more important role as the dimensionality of the model is increased. This contrasting behavior in different dimensions, well known with critical phenomena in statistical mechanics, makes itself plainly visible here in a mesoscopic system and is a strong demonstration of the need to consider physically realistic models of interacting condensates.

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

Dynamics of a temperature-related coral disease outbreak

During the austral summer of 2001/2002, a coral epizootic occurred almost simultaneously with a bleaching event on the fringing reefs of Magnetic Island (Great Barrier Reef region), Australia. This resulted in a 3- to 4-fold increase in the mean percentage of partial mortality rate in a population of the hard coral Montipora aequituberculata. The putative disease state, ‘atramentous necrosis’, was observed on both bleached and normally-pigmented M. aequituberculata, and presented blackened lesions that spread within days across the colony surface and throughout the population. Diseased portions of the corals were only visible for 3 to 4 wk, with diseased tissues becoming covered in sediment and algae, which rapidly obscured evidence of the outbreak. Diseased colonies were again observed in the summer of 2002/2003 after being absent over the 2002 winter. Analysis of when diseased and bleached corals were first observed, and when and where the mortality occurred on individual colonies, indicated virtually all the mortality over the summer could be attributed to the disease and not to the bleaching. Fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) techniques and cloning, and analysis of the 16S rRNA genes from diseased coral tissue, identified a mixed microbial assemblage in the diseased tissues particularly within the Alphaproteobacteria, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes. While it is not possible in this study to distinguish between a disease-causing microbial community versus secondary invaders, the bacterial 16S rDNA sequences identified within the blackened lesions demonstrated high similarity to sequences from black band disease and white plague infected corals, suggesting either common aetiological agents or development of a bacterial community that is specific to degrading coral tissues. Temperature-induced coral disease outbreaks, with the potential for elevated levels of mortality, may represent an added problem for corals during the warmer summer months and an added dimension to predicted increases in water temperature from climate change.

Undular tidal bore dynamics in the Daly Estuary, Northern Australia

Measurements in the macro-tidal Daly Estuary show that the presence of an undular tidal bore contributed negligibly to the dissipation of tidal energy. No recirculation bubble was observed between a trough and the following wave crest in the lee waves following the undular bore. This differs to stationary undular bores in laboratory experiments at larger Froude numbers where a recirculation bubble exists. Secondary motions and the turbulence generated by the undular bore had no measurable influence on the sediment transport. This situation contrasts with the intense sediment resuspension observed in breaking tidal bores. The tidally averaged sediment budget in the Daly Estuary was controlled by the asymmetry of tidal currents. The undular bore may widen the river by breaking along the banks that it undercuts, leading to bank slippage. A patch of river-wide macro-turbulence of 3-min duration occurred about 20 min after the passage of the bore during accelerating tidal currents. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A parallel implementation of the lattice solid model for the simulation of rock mechanics and earthquake dynamics

The Lattice Solid Model has been used successfully as a virtual laboratory to simulate fracturing of rocks, the dynamics of faults, earthquakes and gouge processes. However, results from those simulations show that in order to make the next step towards more realistic experiments it will be necessary to use models containing a significantly larger number of particles than current models. Thus, those simulations will require a greatly increased amount of computational resources. Whereas the computing power provided by single processors can be expected to increase according to Moore's law, i.e., to double every 18-24 months, parallel computers can provide significantly larger computing power today. In order to make this computing power available for the simulation of the microphysics of earthquakes, a parallel version of the Lattice Solid Model has been implemented. Benchmarks using large models with several millions of particles have shown that the parallel implementation of the Lattice Solid Model can achieve a high parallel-efficiency of about 80% for large numbers of processors on different computer architectures.

Of sheep and rain: large-scale population dynamics of the red kangaroo

1. We analysed time-series data from populations of red kangaroos (Macropus rufus, Desmarest) inhabiting four areas in the pastoral zone of South Australia. We formulated a set of a priori models to disentangle the relative effects of the covariates: rainfall, harvesting, intraspecific competition, and domestic herbivores, on kangaroo population-growth rate. 2. The statistical framework allowed for spatial variation in the growth-rate parameters, response to covariates, and environmental variability, as well as spatially correlated error terms due to shared environment. 3. The most parsimonious model included all covariates but no area-specific parameter values, suggesting that kangaroo densities respond in the same way to the covariates across the areas. 4. The temporal dynamics were spatially correlated, even after taking into account the potentially synchronizing effect of rainfall, harvesting and domestic herbivores. 5. Counter-intuitively, we found a positive rather than negative effect of domestic herbivore density on the population-growth rate of kangaroos. We hypothesize that this effect is caused by sheep and cattle acting as a surrogate for resource availability beyond rainfall. 6. Even though our system is well studied, we must conclude that approximating resources by surrogates such as rainfall is more difficult than previously thought. This is an important message for studies of consumer-resource systems and highlights the need to be explicit about population processes when analysing population patterns.

Transmission dynamics of the Echinococcus granulosus sheep-dog strain (G1 genotype) in camels in Tunisia

Cystic echinococcosis, caused by Echinococcus grantilosus, is highly endemic in North Africa and the Middle East. This paper examines the abundance and prevalence of infection of E. granulosus in camels in Tunisia. No cysts were found in 103 camels from Kebili, whilst 19 of 188 camels from Benguerden (10.1%) were infected. Of the cysts found 95% were considered fertile with the presence of protoscolices and 80% of protoscolices were considered viable by their ability to exclude aqueous eosin. Molecular techniques were used on cyst material from camels and this demonstrated that the study animals were infected with the G1 sheep strain of E. granulosus. Observed data were fitted to a mathematical model by maximum likelihood techniques to define the parameters and their confidence limits and the negative binomial distribution was used to define the error variance in the observed data. The infection pressure to camels was somewhat lower in comparison to sheep reported in an earlier study. However, because camels are much longer-lived animals, the results of the model fit suggested that older camels have a relatively high prevalence rate, reaching a most likely value of 32% at age 15 years. This could represent an important source of transmission to dogs and hence indirectly to man of this zonotic strain. In common with similar studies on other species, there was no evidence of parasite-induced immunity in camels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Auxin dynamics after decapitation are not correlated with the initial growth of axillary buds

One of the first and most enduring roles identified for the plant hormone auxin is the mediation of apical dominance. Many reports have claimed that reduced stem indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) levels and/ or reduced basipetal IAA transport directly or indirectly initiate bud growth in decapitated plants. We have tested whether auxin inhibits the initial stage of bud release, or subsequent stages, in garden pea (Pisum sativum) by providing a rigorous examination of the dynamics of auxin level, auxin transport, and axillary bud growth. We demonstrate that after decapitation, initial bud growth occurs prior to changes in IAA level or transport in surrounding stem tissue and is not prevented by an acropetal supply of exogenous auxin. We also show that auxin transport inhibitors cause a similar auxin depletion as decapitation, but do not stimulate bud growth within our experimental time- frame. These results indicate that decapitation may trigger initial bud growth via an auxin-independent mechanism. We propose that auxin operates after this initial stage, mediating apical dominance via autoregulation of buds that are already in transition toward sustained growth.