La pesca en alta mar y los intereses de los estados ribereños de la región: un análisis de la negociación futura a la luz de la equidad: parte I: De la Convención de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Derecho del Mar a la convocatoria de la Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre Poblaciones Transzonales y las Poblaciones de Peces Altamente Migratorias = High-seas fisheries and the interests of the coastal states of the region: an analysis of the upcoming negotiation from the perspective of social equity: part I: From the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to the United Nations Conference on Straddling Fish Stocks and Highly Migratory Fish Stocks

Incluye Bibliografía

A regional approach to the consultations held by the Secretary-General of the United Nations on part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Includes bibliography

A Law of the Wall Formulation for Recirculating Flows

ABSTRACT: This work presents a new law of the wall formulation for recirculating turbulent flows. An alternative expression for the internal length which can be applied in the separated region is also presented. The formulation is implemented in a numerical code which solves the k-e model through a finite volume method. The theoretical results are compared with the experimental data of Vogel and Eaton (J. of Heat Transfer, Transactions of ASME, vol.107, pp. 922-929, 1985). The paper shows that the present formulation furnishes better results than the standard k-e formulation.

Law of large numbers for certain cylinder flows

We construct new examples of cylinder flows, given by skew product extensions of irrational rotations on the circle, that are ergodic and rationally ergodic along a subsequence of iterates. In particular, they exhibit a law of large numbers. This is accomplished by explicitly calculating, for a subsequence of iterates, the number of visits to zero, and it is shown that such number has a Gaussian distribution.

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Does Israel Follow the Law? A Critical Analysis of Israel's Application of the International Law of Belligerent Occupation in the Occupied Territories

Israel's occupation of territories it captured in 1967 has become one of the longest and most controversial occupations of the last fifty years. Eschewing the traditional political analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, this paper aims to explore whether Israel has adequately applied international law in the occupied territories, in particular, the law of belligerent occupation. The two actors under assessment are the Israeli government, particularly its military which enforces and maintains the law in the territories, and the Supreme Court of Israel, which has the power of review over military actions in the territories. The particular issues of the occupation that are critically analyzed are the general legal framework that Israel established in the territories, Israel's civilian settlement policy in territories, and Israel's construction of a barrier in the West Bank. This paper concludes that Israel has incorrectly applied the legal framework of belligerent occupation by refusing to apply the Fourth Geneva Convention; it has wrongly concluded that the establishment of civilian settlements in the territories conform with international law; yet it has rightly concluded that the construction of the barrier in the West Bank is permissible under international law, in contrast to the conclusion of the much publicized International Court of Justice's Advisory Opinion on the 'Wall.' Along with these general assessments, the author will also provide some historical and political insight into why the Israeli government and the Supreme Court may have applied the law in the way that they did.

The Impact of Uncertainty in the AIDS Incubation Period on Reconstructions of the HIV Epidemic

Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.