Development of a high-speed sensing and detection system for automatic removal of packages with leaky seals from a high-speed food processing and packaging line

Contamination of packaged foods due to micro-organisms entering through air leaks can cause serious public health issues and cost companies large amounts of money due to product recalls, consumer impact and subsequent loss of market share. The main source of contamination is leaks in packaging which allow air, moisture and microorganisms to enter the package. In the food processing and packaging industry worldwide, there is an increasing demand for cost effective state of the art inspection technologies that are capable of reliably detecting leaky seals and delivering products at six-sigma. The new technology will develop non-destructive testing technology using digital imaging and sensing combined with a differential vacuum technique to assess seal integrity of food packages on a high-speed production line. The cost of leaky packages in Australian food industries is estimated close to AUD $35 Million per year. Contamination of packaged foods due to micro-organisms entering through air leaks can cause serious public health issues and cost companies large sums of money due to product recalls, compensation claims and loss of market share. The main source of contamination is leaks in packaging which allow air, moisture and micro-organisms to enter the package. Flexible plastic packages are widely used, and are the least expensive form of retaining the quality of the product. These packets can be used to seal, and therefore maximise, the shelf life of both dry and moist products. The seals of food packages need to be airtight so that the food content is not contaminated due to contact with microorganisms that enter as a result of air leakage. Airtight seals also extend the shelf life of packaged foods, and manufacturers attempt to prevent food products with leaky seals being sold to consumers. There are many current NDT (non-destructive testing) methods of testing the seal of flexible packages best suited to random sampling, and for laboratory purposes. The three most commonly used methods are vacuum/pressure decay, bubble test, and helium leak detection. Although these methods can detect very fine leaks, they are limited by their high processing time and are not viable in a production line. Two nondestructive in-line packaging inspection machines are currently available and are discussed in the literature review. The detailed design and development of the High-Speed Sensing and Detection System (HSDS) is the fundamental requirement of this project and the future prototype and production unit. Successful laboratory testing was completed and a methodical design procedure was needed for a successful concept. The Mechanical tests confirmed the vacuum hypothesis and seal integrity with good consistent results. Electrically, the testing also provided solid results to enable the researcher to move the project forward with a certain amount of confidence. The laboratory design testing allowed the researcher to confirm theoretical assumptions before moving into the detailed design phase. Discussion on the development of the alternative concepts in both mechanical and electrical disciplines enables the researcher to make an informed decision. Each major mechanical and electrical component is detailed through the research and design process. The design procedure methodically works through the various major functions both from a mechanical and electrical perspective. It opens up alternative ideas for the major components that although are sometimes not practical in this application, show that the researcher has exhausted all engineering and functionality thoughts. Further concepts were then designed and developed for the entire HSDS unit based on previous practice and theory. In the future, it would be envisaged that both the Prototype and Production version of the HSDS would utilise standard industry available components, manufactured and distributed locally. Future research and testing of the prototype unit could result in a successful trial unit being incorporated in a working food processing production environment. Recommendations and future works are discussed, along with options in other food processing and packaging disciplines, and other areas in the non-food processing industry.

A review of models and model usage scenarios for an airport complex system

Airports represent the epitome of complex systems with multiple stakeholders, multiple jurisdictions and complex interactions between many actors. The large number of existing models that capture different aspects of the airport are a testament to this. However, these existing models do not consider in a systematic sense modelling requirements nor how stakeholders such as airport operators or airlines would make use of these models. This can detrimentally impact on the verification and validation of models and makes the development of extensible and reusable modelling tools difficult. This paper develops from the Concept of Operations (CONOPS) framework a methodology to help structure the review and development of modelling capabilities and usage scenarios. The method is applied to the review of existing airport terminal passenger models. It is found that existing models can be broadly categorised according to four usage scenarios: capacity planning, operational planning and design, security policy and planning, and airport performance review. The models, the performance metrics that they evaluate and their usage scenarios are discussed. It is found that capacity and operational planning models predominantly focus on performance metrics such as waiting time, service time and congestion whereas performance review models attempt to link those to passenger satisfaction outcomes. Security policy models on the other hand focus on probabilistic risk assessment. However, there is an emerging focus on the need to be able to capture trade-offs between multiple criteria such as security and processing time. Based on the CONOPS framework and literature findings, guidance is provided for the development of future airport terminal models.

Development of a transformation system for sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.)

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) is the world’s fifth major cereal crop and holds importance as a construction material, food and fodder source. More recently, the potential of this plant as a biofuel source has been noted. Despite its agronomic importance, the use of sorghum production is being constrained by both biotic and abiotic factors. These challenges could be addressed by the use of genetic engineering strategies to complement conventional breeding techniques. However, sorghum is one of the most recalcitrant crops for genetic modification with the lack of an efficient tissue culture system being amongst the chief reasons. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop an efficient tissue culture system for establishing regenerable embryogenic cell lines, micropropagation and acclimatisation for Sorghum bicolor and use this to optimise parameters for genetic transformation via Agrobacterium-mediated transformation and microprojectile bombardment. Using five different sorghum cultivars, SA281, 296B, SC49, Wray and Rio, numerous parameters were investigated in an attempt to establish an efficient and reproducible tissue culture and transformation system. Using immature embryos (IEs) as explants, regenerable embryogenic cell lines (ECLs) could only be established from cultivars SA281 and 296B. Large amounts of phenolics were produced from IEs of cultivars, SC49, Wary and Rio, and these compounds severely hindered callus formation and development. Cultivar SA281 also produced phenolics during regeneration. Attempts to suppress the production of these compounds in cultivars SA281 and SC49 using activated charcoal, PVP, ascorbic acid, citric acid and liquid filter paper bridge methods were either ineffective or had a detrimental effect on embryogenic callus formation, development and regeneration. Immature embryos sourced during summer were found to be far more responsive in vitro than those sourced during winter. In an attempt to overcome this problem, IEs were sourced from sorghum grown under summer conditions in either a temperature controlled glasshouse or a growth chamber. However, the performance of these explants was still inferior to that of natural summer-sourced explants. Leaf whorls, mature embryos, shoot tips and leaf primordia were found to be unsuitable as explants for establishing ECLs in sorghum cultivars SA281 and 296B. Using the florets of immature inflorescences (IFs) as explants, however, ECLs were established and regenerated for these cultivars, as well as for cultivar Tx430, using callus induction media, SCIM, and regeneration media, VWRM. The best in vitro responses, from the largest possible sized IFs, were obtained using plants at the FL-2 stage (where the last fully opened leaf was two leaves away from the flag leaf). Immature inflorescences could be stored at 25oC for up to three days without affecting their in vitro responses. Compared to IEs, the IFs were more robust in tissue culture and showed responses which were season and growth condition independent. A micropropagation protocol for sorghum was developed in this study. The optimum plant growth regulator (PGR) combination for the micropropagation of in vitro regenerated plantlets was found to be 1.0 mg/L BAP in combination with 0.5 mg/L NAA. With this protocol, cultivars 296B and SA281 produced an average of 57 and 13 off-shoots per plantlet, respectively. The plantlets were successfully acclimatised and developed into phenotypically normal plants that set seeds. A simplified acclimatisation protocol for in vitro regenerated plantlets was also developed. This protocol involved deflasking in vitro plantlets with at least 2 fully-opened healthy leaves and at least 3 roots longer than 1.5 cm, washing the media from the roots with running tap water, planting in 100 mm pots and placing in plastic trays covered with a clear plastic bag in a plant growth chamber. After seven days, the corners of the plastic cover were opened and the bags were completely removed after 10 days. All plantlets were successfully acclimatised regardless of whether 1:1 perlite:potting mix, potting mix, UC mix or vermiculite were used as potting substrates. Parameters were optimised for Agrobacterium-mediated transformation (AMT) of cultivars SA281, 296B and Tx430. The optimal conditions were the use of Agrobacterium strain LBA4404 at an inoculum density of 0.5 OD600nm, heat shock at 43oC for 3 min, use of the surfactant Pluronic F-68 (0.02% w/v) in the inoculation media with a pH of 5.2 and a 3 day co-cultivation period in dark at 22oC. Using these parameters, high frequencies of transient GFP expression was observed in IEs precultured on callus initiation media for 1-7 days as well as in four weeks old IE- and IF-derived callus. Cultivar SA281 appeared very sensitive to Agrobacterium since all tissue turned necrotic within two weeks post-exposure. For cultivar 296B, GFP expression was observed up to 20 days post co-cultivation but no stably transformed plants were regenerated. Using cultivar Tx430, GFP was expressed for up to 50 days post co-cultivation. Although no stably transformed plants of this cultivar were regenerated, this was most likely due to the use of unsuitable regeneration media. Parameters were optimised for transformation by particle bombardment (PB) of cultivars SA281, 296B and Tx430. The optimal conditions were use of 3-7 days old IEs and 4 weeks old IF callus, 4 hour pre- and post-bombardment osmoticum treatment, use of 0.6 µm gold microparticles, helium pressure of 1500 kPa and target distance of 15 cm. Using these parameters for PB, transient GFP expression was observed for up to 14, 30 and 50 days for cultivars SA281, 296B and Tx430, respectively. Further, the use of PB resulted in less tissue necrosis compared to AMT for the respective cultivars. Despite the presence of transient GFP expression, no stably transformed plants were regenerated. The establishment of regenerable ECLs and the optimization of AMT and PB parameters in this study provides a platform for future efforts to develop an efficient transformation protocol for sorghum. The development of GM sorghum will be an important step towards improving its agronomic properties as well as its exploitation for biofuel production.

The emerging role of private health care provision in China : a critical analysis of the current health system

China continues to face great challenges in meeting the health needs of its large population. The challenges are not just lack of resources, but also how to use existing resources more efficiently, more effectively, and more equitably. Now a major unaddressed challenge facing China is how to reform an inefficient, poorly organized health care delivery system. The objective of this study is to analyze the role of private health care provision in China and discuss the implications of increasing private-sector development for improving health system performance. This study is based on an extensive literature review, the purpose of which was to identify, summarize, and evaluate ideas and information on private health care provision in China. In addition, the study uses secondary data analysis and the results of previous study by the authors to highlight the current situation of private health care provision in one province of China. This study found that government-owned hospitals form the backbone of the health care system and also account for most health care service provision. However, even though the public health care system is constantly trying to adapt to population needs and improve its performance, there are many problems in the system, such as limited access, low efficiency, poor quality, cost inflation, and low patient satisfaction. Currently, private hospitals are relatively rare, and private health care as an important component of the health care system in China has received little policy attention. It is argued that policymakers in China should recognize the role of private health care provision for health system performance, and then define and achieve an appropriate role for private health care provision in helping to respond to the many challenges facing the health system in present-day China.

Large scale monocular vision-only mapping from a fixed-wing sUAS

This paper presents the application of a monocular visual SLAMon a fixed-wing small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) capable of simultaneous estimation of aircraft pose and scene structure. We demonstrate the robustness of unconstrained vision alone in producing reliable pose estimates of a sUAS, at altitude. It is ultimately capable of online state estimation feedback for aircraft control and next-best-view estimation for complete map coverage without the use of additional sensors.We explore some of the challenges of visual SLAM from a sUAS including dealing with planar structure, distant scenes and noisy observations. The developed techniques are applied on vision data gathered from a fast-moving fixed-wing radio control aircraft flown over a 1×1km rural area at an altitude of 20-100m.We present both raw Structure from Motion results and a SLAM solution that includes FAB-MAP based loop-closures and graph-optimised pose. Timing information is also presented to demonstrate near online capabilities. We compare the accuracy of the 6-DOF pose estimates to an off-the-shelfGPS aided INS over a 1.7kmtrajectory.We also present output 3D reconstructions of the observed scene structure and texture that demonstrates future applications in autonomous monitoring and surveying.

Evaluating the success of large-scale, integrated information systems through the lens of IS-impact and IS-support

This study proceeds from a central interest in the importance of systematically evaluating operational large-scale integrated information systems (IS) in organisations. The study is conducted within the IS-Impact Research Track at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). The goal of the IS-Impact Track is, "to develop the most widely employed model for benchmarking information systems in organizations for the joint benefit of both research and practice" (Gable et al, 2009). The track espouses programmatic research having the principles of incrementalism, tenacity, holism and generalisability through replication and extension research strategies. Track efforts have yielded the bicameral IS-Impact measurement model; the ‘impact’ half includes Organisational-Impact and Individual-Impact dimensions; the ‘quality’ half includes System-Quality and Information-Quality dimensions. Akin to Gregor’s (2006) analytic theory, the ISImpact model is conceptualised as a formative, multidimensional index and is defined as "a measure at a point in time, of the stream of net benefits from the IS, to date and anticipated, as perceived by all key-user-groups" (Gable et al., 2008, p: 381). The study adopts the IS-Impact model (Gable, et al., 2008) as its core theory base. Prior work within the IS-Impact track has been consciously constrained to Financial IS for their homogeneity. This study adopts a context-extension strategy (Berthon et al., 2002) with the aim "to further validate and extend the IS-Impact measurement model in a new context - i.e. a different IS - Human Resources (HR)". The overarching research question is: "How can the impacts of large-scale integrated HR applications be effectively and efficiently benchmarked?" This managerial question (Cooper & Emory, 1995) decomposes into two more specific research questions – In the new HR context: (RQ1): "Is the IS-Impact model complete?" (RQ2): "Is the ISImpact model valid as a 1st-order formative, 2nd-order formative multidimensional construct?" The study adhered to the two-phase approach of Gable et al. (2008) to hypothesise and validate a measurement model. The initial ‘exploratory phase’ employed a zero base qualitative approach to re-instantiating the IS-Impact model in the HR context. The subsequent ‘confirmatory phase’ sought to validate the resultant hypothesised measurement model against newly gathered quantitative data. The unit of analysis for the study is the application, ‘ALESCO’, an integrated large-scale HR application implemented at Queensland University of Technology (QUT), a large Australian university (with approximately 40,000 students and 5000 staff). Target respondents of both study phases were ALESCO key-user-groups: strategic users, management users, operational users and technical users, who directly use ALESCO or its outputs. An open-ended, qualitative survey was employed in the exploratory phase, with the objective of exploring the completeness and applicability of the IS-Impact model’s dimensions and measures in the new context, and to conceptualise any resultant model changes to be operationalised in the confirmatory phase. Responses from 134 ALESCO users to the main survey question, "What do you consider have been the impacts of the ALESCO (HR) system in your division/department since its implementation?" were decomposed into 425 ‘impact citations.’ Citation mapping using a deductive (top-down) content analysis approach instantiated all dimensions and measures of the IS-Impact model, evidencing its content validity in the new context. Seeking to probe additional (perhaps negative) impacts; the survey included the additional open question "In your opinion, what can be done better to improve the ALESCO (HR) system?" Responses to this question decomposed into a further 107 citations which in the main did not map to IS-Impact, but rather coalesced around the concept of IS-Support. Deductively drawing from relevant literature, and working inductively from the unmapped citations, the new ‘IS-Support’ construct, including the four formative dimensions (i) training, (ii) documentation, (iii) assistance, and (iv) authorisation (each having reflective measures), was defined as: "a measure at a point in time, of the support, the [HR] information system key-user groups receive to increase their capabilities in utilising the system." Thus, a further goal of the study became validation of the IS-Support construct, suggesting the research question (RQ3): "Is IS-Support valid as a 1st-order reflective, 2nd-order formative multidimensional construct?" With the aim of validating IS-Impact within its nomological net (identification through structural relations), as in prior work, Satisfaction was hypothesised as its immediate consequence. The IS-Support construct having derived from a question intended to probe IS-Impacts, too was hypothesised as antecedent to Satisfaction, thereby suggesting the research question (RQ4): "What is the relative contribution of IS-Impact and IS-Support to Satisfaction?" With the goal of testing the above research questions, IS-Impact, IS-Support and Satisfaction were operationalised in a quantitative survey instrument. Partial least squares (PLS) structural equation modelling employing 221 valid responses largely evidenced the validity of the commencing IS-Impact model in the HR context. ISSupport too was validated as operationalised (including 11 reflective measures of its 4 formative dimensions). IS-Support alone explained 36% of Satisfaction; IS-Impact alone 70%; in combination both explaining 71% with virtually all influence of ISSupport subsumed by IS-Impact. Key study contributions to research include: (1) validation of IS-Impact in the HR context, (2) validation of a newly conceptualised IS-Support construct as important antecedent of Satisfaction, and (3) validation of the redundancy of IS-Support when gauging IS-Impact. The study also makes valuable contributions to practice, the research track and the sponsoring organisation.

Multi-cursor multi-user mobile interaction with a large shared display

When using a mobile device to control a cursor on a large shared display, the interaction must be carefully planned to match the environment and purpose of the systems use. We describe a ‘democratic jukebox’ system that revealed five recommendations that should be considered when designing this type of interaction relating to providing feedback to the user; how to represent users in a multi-cursor based system; where people tend to look and their expectation of how to move their cursor; the orientation of screens and the social context; and, the use of simulated users to give the real users a sense that they are engaging with a greater audience.

Risk control in transmission system expansion planning with wind generators

With the advent of large-scale wind farms and their integration into electrical grids, more uncertainties, constraints and objectives must be considered in power system development. It is therefore necessary to introduce risk-control strategies into the planning of transmission systems connected with wind power generators. This paper presents a probability-based multi-objective model equipped with three risk-control strategies. The model is developed to evaluate and enhance the ability of the transmission system to protect against overload risks when wind power is integrated into the power system. The model involves: (i) defining the uncertainties associated with wind power generators with probability measures and calculating the probabilistic power flow with the combined use of cumulants and Gram-Charlier series; (ii) developing three risk-control strategies by specifying the smallest acceptable non-overload probability for each branch and the whole system, and specifying the non-overload margin for all branches in the whole system; (iii) formulating an overload risk index based on the non-overload probability and the non-overload margin defined; and (iv) developing a multi-objective transmission system expansion planning (TSEP) model with the objective functions composed of transmission investment and the overload risk index. The presented work represents a superior risk-control model for TSEP in terms of security, reliability and economy. The transmission expansion planning model with the three risk-control strategies demonstrates its feasibility in the case study using two typical power systems

Chimaeric HIV-1 subtype C Gag molecules with large in-frame C-terminal polypeptide fusions form virus-like particles

HIV-1 Pr55 Gag virus-like particles (VLPs) are strong immunogens with potential as candidate HIV vaccines. VLP immunogenicity can be broadened by making chimaeric Gag molecules: however, VLPs incorporating polypeptides longer than 200 aa fused in frame with Gag have not yet been reported. We constructed a range of gag-derived genes encoding in-frame C-terminal fusions of myristoylation-competent native Pr55Gag and p6-truncated Gag (Pr50Gag) to test the effects of polypeptide length and sequence on VLP formation and morphology, in an insect cell expression system. Fused sequences included a modified reverse transcriptase-Tat-Nef fusion polypeptide (RTTN, 778 aa), and truncated versions of RTTN ranging from 113 aa to 450 aa. Baculovirus-expressed chimaeric proteins were examined by western blot and electron microscopy. All chimaeras formed VLPs which could be purified by sucrose gradient centrifugation. VLP diameter increased with protein MW, from ∼100 nm for Pr55Gag to ∼250 nm for GagRTTN. The presence or absence of the Gag p6 region did not obviously affect VLP formation or appearance. GagRT chimaeric particles were successfully used in mice to boost T-cell responses to Gag and RT that were elicited by a DNA vaccine encoding a GagRTTN polypeptide, indicating the potential of such chimaeras to be used as candidate HIV vaccines. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimization of chimeric HIV-1 virus-like particle production in a baculovirus-insect cell expression system

A baculovirus-insect cell expression system potentially provides the means to produce prophylactic HIV-1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines inexpensively and in large quantities. However, the system must be optimized to maximize yields and increase process efficiency. In this study, we optimized the production of two novel, chimeric HIV-1 VLP vaccine candidates (GagRT and GagTN) in insect cells. This was done by monitoring the effects of four specific factors on VLP expression: these were insect cell line, cell density, multiplicity of infection (MOI), and infection time. The use of western blots, Gag p24 ELISA, and four-factorial ANOVA allowed the determination of the most favorable conditions for chimeric VLP production, as well as which factors affected VLP expression most significantly. Both VLP vaccine candidates favored similar optimal conditions, demonstrating higher yields of VLPs when produced in the Trichoplusia ni Pro insect cell line, at a cell density of 1 × 106 cells/mL, and an infection time of 96 h post infection. It was found that cell density and infection time were major influencing factors, but that MOI did not affect VLP expression significantly. This work provides a potentially valuable guideline for HIV-1 protein vaccine optimization, as well as for general optimization of a baculovirus-based expression system to produce complex recombinant proteins. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

Effects of various power system stabilizers on improving power system dynamic performance

To ensure the small-signal stability of a power system, power system stabilizers (PSSs) are extensively applied for damping low frequency power oscillations through modulating the excitation supplied to synchronous machines, and increasing interest has been focused on developing different PSS schemes to tackle the threat of damping oscillations to power system stability. This paper examines four different PSS models and investigates their performances on damping power system dynamics using both small-signal eigenvalue analysis and large-signal dynamic simulations. The four kinds of PSSs examined include the Conventional PSS (CPSS), Single Neuron based PSS (SNPSS), Adaptive PSS (APSS) and Multi-band PSS (MBPSS). A steep descent parameter optimization algorithm is employed to seek the optimal PSS design parameters. To evaluate the effects of these PSSs on improving power system dynamic behaviors, case studies are carried out on an 8-unit 24-bus power system through both small-signal eigenvalue analysis and large-signal time-domain simulations.

Closed system isolation and scalable expansion of human placental mesenchymal stem cells

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) are emerging as a leading cellular therapy for a number of diseases. However, for such treatments to become available as a routine therapeutic option, efficient and cost-effective means for industrial manufacture of MSC are required. At present, clinical grade MSC are manufactured through a process of manual cell culture in specialized cGMP facilities. This process is open, extremely labor intensive, costly, and impractical for anything more than a small number of patients. While it has been shown that MSC can be cultivated in stirred bioreactor systems using microcarriers, providing a route to process scale-up, the degree of numerical expansion achieved has generally been limited. Furthermore, little attention has been given to the issue of primary cell isolation from complex tissues such as placenta. In this article we describe the initial development of a closed process for bulk isolation of MSC from human placenta, and subsequent cultivation on microcarriers in scalable single-use bioreactor systems. Based on our initial data, we estimate that a single placenta may be sufficient to produce over 7,000 doses of therapeutic MSC using a large-scale process.

A critical evaluation and comparison of two formative measures of system quality using criterion variables

Evaluating the validity of formative variables has presented ongoing challenges for researchers. In this paper we use global criterion measures to compare and critically evaluate two alternative formative measures of System Quality. One model is based on the ISO-9126 software quality standard, and the other is based on a leading information systems research model. We find that despite both models having a strong provenance, many of the items appear to be non-significant in our study. We examine the implications of this by evaluating the quality of the criterion variables we used, and the performance of PLS when evaluating formative models with a large number of items. We find that our respondents had difficulty distinguishing between global criterion variables measuring different aspects of overall System Quality. Also, because formative indicators “compete with one another” in PLS, it may be difficult to develop a set of measures which are all significant for a complex formative construct with a broad scope and a large number of items. Overall, we suggest that there is cautious evidence that both sets of measures are valid and largely equivalent, although questions still remain about the measures, the use of criterion variables, and the use of PLS for this type of model evaluation.

On the commonly accepted assumptions regarding observed motor vehicle crash counts at transport system locations

Readily accepted knowledge regarding crash causation is consistently omitted from efforts to model and subsequently understand motor vehicle crash occurrence and their contributing factors. For instance, distracted and impaired driving accounts for a significant proportion of crash occurrence, yet is rarely modeled explicitly. In addition, spatially allocated influences such as local law enforcement efforts, proximity to bars and schools, and roadside chronic distractions (advertising, pedestrians, etc.) play a role in contributing to crash occurrence and yet are routinely absent from crash models. By and large, these well-established omitted effects are simply assumed to contribute to model error, with predominant focus on modeling the engineering and operational effects of transportation facilities (e.g. AADT, number of lanes, speed limits, width of lanes, etc.) The typical analytical approach—with a variety of statistical enhancements—has been to model crashes that occur at system locations as negative binomial (NB) distributed events that arise from a singular, underlying crash generating process. These models and their statistical kin dominate the literature; however, it is argued in this paper that these models fail to capture the underlying complexity of motor vehicle crash causes, and thus thwart deeper insights regarding crash causation and prevention. This paper first describes hypothetical scenarios that collectively illustrate why current models mislead highway safety researchers and engineers. It is argued that current model shortcomings are significant, and will lead to poor decision-making. Exploiting our current state of knowledge of crash causation, crash counts are postulated to arise from three processes: observed network features, unobserved spatial effects, and ‘apparent’ random influences that reflect largely behavioral influences of drivers. It is argued; furthermore, that these three processes in theory can be modeled separately to gain deeper insight into crash causes, and that the model represents a more realistic depiction of reality than the state of practice NB regression. An admittedly imperfect empirical model that mixes three independent crash occurrence processes is shown to outperform the classical NB model. The questioning of current modeling assumptions and implications of the latent mixture model to current practice are the most important contributions of this paper, with an initial but rather vulnerable attempt to model the latent mixtures as a secondary contribution.