Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land cover classification of Lago Grande de Curuai floodplain (Amazon, Brazil) using multi-sensor and image fusion techniques

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Assessing land use by cattle in heterogeneous environments

The aim of this note is to describe preliminary results on assessment of land use by cattle, obtained in a pilot study using Geographic Information System (GIS). The research was carried out on a semi-natural pasture in Sweden, where the geographic positions of one cow were recorded during 25 consecutive days during summer. The cow, wearing a GPS collar, was integrated in a herd of 53 Hereford cattle. Each location point registered for the animal was considered as a sampling unit (N=3,097). The spatial distribution of ground declivity, water sources, cattle tracks, and classes of woody vegetation cover (forest, grassland with trees and open grassland) were recorded. The storage, processing and data analysis were carried out using the Idrisi and GS+ softwares. Three occupation zones were identified in function of the variation in the space used by the animal, which were occupied in a cyclical pattern; with the animal moving from one zone to another in cycles of five days. It was also clear that the cattle distribution in the area was neither random nor uniform, and it was affected by environmental characteristics that act as conditioners on its distribution. These preliminary results suggest that definition of zones of occupation and the environmental conditioners are promising tools to understand the land use by cattle

Water productivity of different land uses in watersheds assessed from satellite imagery Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Change detection as support for monitoring the dynamic of land around reservoir

The change detection technique was used in this study to provide preliminary information on the dynamics of land cover in the region over the western basin of the Tiete River. This area is characterized by sequence of reservoirs and intense agricultural activity, triggering series negative effects. One of the impacts is contamination and proliferation of aquatic organisms in these aquatics environments, increased by release of nutrients from human activities. This work was possible to observe a large switching classes and secondary vegetation bare land, probably related to agricultural activity.

Land use and thermal comfort in the county of Ourinhos, SP

This study aims to analyze the thermal comfort in urban areas for different land uses. The ENVImet microclimatic model has been used for urban boundary layer simulation, providing the following thermal comfort indexes: PMV (Predicted Mean Vote) and PPD (Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfaction). The chosen area covers the central area in the city of Ourinhos, located in southeastern Brazilian city, with subtropical climate. Four simulations were accomplished: an area with real buildings and vegetation on site, a “grassy” area where buildings have been replaced by grass in the central area, another grassy area, known as “grass/tree”, with additional trees in, and a final area called “Park” also grassy, where trees were added all over the area. The structures which showed thermal comfort within the ISO 7730 standards were the grassy area with no trees at 9 a.m., and a paved area, as well as the park area at 3 p.m. Other situations have presented values of PMV and PPD off the limits required by the rules; they were very close to those values. The only point that presented a far cry from the comfort required was the spot in the asphalt at 9 a.m. The other situations showed PMV and PPD values not far from the limits of comfort. Only the point on the asphalt showed values far from the limit of comfort at 9 a.m.

Microbial biomass and soil chemical properties under different land use systems in Northeastern Pará

O aumento da produção agrícola na Amazônia brasileira tem ocorrido devido, em grande parte, à expansão da fronteira agrícola, utilizando áreas já antropizadas ou avançando sobre a vegetação primária. Ao mesmo tempo, os sistemas agrícolas, na pequena produção, continuam utilizando o fogo no preparo da área, o que leva à perda da capacidade produtiva dos solos em curto espaço de tempo, forçando a abertura de novas áreas. Este trabalho avaliou o efeito de métodos de preparo do solo e tempo de pousio que envolvem queima e trituração da vegetação, com permanência na superfície ou incorporada ao solo, com ou sem adubação mineral, em duas épocas do ano sobre os atributos químicos e biológicos do solo. O experimento foi instalado em 1995 em um Latossolo Amarelo do campo experimental da Embrapa Amazônia Oriental, no nordeste do Estado do Pará. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos casualizados, arranjados em esquema fatorial 2 x 6, sendo dois sistemas de manejo e seis tratamentos, estudados em duas épocas de coleta. Os sistemas de manejo envolveram as culturas de arroz (Oriza sativa), seguido de feijão-caupi (Vigna unguiculata) e mandioca (Manihot esculenta). Um sistema constou de dois ciclos de cultivo seguidos, deixando em pousio por três anos; e o outro, de um ciclo de cultivo, deixando em pousio por três anos. Os tratamentos foram: corte e queima da vegetação, com adubação NPK (Q+NPK); corte e queima da vegetação, sem adubação NPK (Q-NPK); corte e trituração da vegetação, deixando-a na superfície do solo, com adubação NPK (C+NPK); corte e trituração da vegetação, deixando-a na superfície do solo, sem adubação NPK (C-NPK); corte e trituração da vegetação, com incorporação e com adubação NPK (I+NPK); e corte e trituração da vegetação, com incorporação e sem adubação NPK (I-NPK). As coletas de solo foram realizadas na estação mais chuvosa (abril de 2006) e na menos chuvosa (setembro de 2006), na profundidade de 0,0-0,1 m. Em cada parcela, foram coletadas 10 amostras simples para compor uma amostra composta. O sistema de manejo mais intensivo apresentou maiores teores de C microbiano (Cmic) e N microbiano (Nmic), ao passo que o sistema menos intensivo mostrou maio teor de C orgânico. Os tratamentos que apresentaram maior teor de Cmic e Nmic foram aqueles em que houve corte, trituração e deposição da biomassa na superfície do solo. Os atributos químicos nos dois sistemas de manejo encontram-se em faixas que enquadram os solos como de baixa fertilidade; no entanto, P e K (no período chuvoso) foram mais elevados no sistema de manejo menos intensivo.

Elk in Nebraska: Opportunity or Another Private-Public Land Conundrum

We conducted a comprehensive research project on elk in the Pine Ridge region of northwestern Nebraska from 1995 to 2002 to determine ecological factors that could be used to improve management and reduce damage. The population ranged from 120 to 150 animals, with an average calf:cow ratio of 0.5:1 and bull:cow ratio of 0.4:1. We located 21 radio-collared female elk 6,311 times during 1995 to 1997. Seasonal home ranges of 2 herds were 10 and 44 km2, while average annual home ranges of the herds were much larger (483 and 440 km2, respectively). All wintering areas (n = 21) and 80% of the calving areas (n = 22) were located on privately-owned land. Active timber harvest temporarily displaced elk, most notably during the calving season. Elk shifted home ranges in association with the seasonal availability of agricultural crops, in particular, alfalfa, oats, and winter wheat. Population models indicated that static levels of hunting mortality would lead to a stable population of about 130 elk over 10 years. Most landowners in the Pine Ridge (57%) favored free-ranging elk, but 26% were concerned about damage to agricultural crops and competition with livestock. Habitat suitability models and estimates of social carrying capacity indicate that up to 600 elk could be sustained in the Pine Ridge without significant impacts to landowners. We recommended an integrated management program used to enhance elk habitat on publicly-owned land and redistribute elk from privately-owned land.

RP979-56 Long-Term Installment Land Contracts

The installment land contract is both an instrument of transfer and a method of financing sales of land. If properly drawn, it can have a number of advantages for both the buyer and seller. Both parties should contact their attorneys to be sure that the terms of the contract are clearly stated and understood. This research publication discusses how long-term installment land contracts are used in the agricultural community.

Engineering geological data in support of municipal land use planning-a case study in Analandia, southeast Brazil

This paper presents a method for transforming the information of an engineering geological map into useful information for non-specialists involved in land-use planning. The method consists of classifying the engineering geological units in terms of land use capability and identifying the legal and the geologic restrictions that apply in the study area. Both informations are then superimposed over the land use and a conflict areas map is created. The analysis of these data leads to the identification of existing and forthcoming land use conflicts and enables the proposal of planning measures on a regional and local scale. The map for the regional planning was compiled at a 1:50,000 scale and encompasses the whole municipal land area where uses are mainly rural. The map for the local planning was compiled at a 1:10,000 scale and encompasses the urban area. Most of the classification and operations on maps used spatial analyst tools available in the Geographical Information System. The regional studies showed that the greater part of Analandia's territory presents appropriate land uses. The local-scale studies indicate that the majority of the densely occupied urban areas are in suitable land. Although the situation is in general positive, municipal policies should address the identified and expected land use conflicts, so that it can be further improved.

The aplication of land use and nighttime lights on the development of high-resolution emission inventories for South America

In this paper, nighttime light data are suggested as a proxy for spatial distribution of vehicles running in urban and nearby areas. Nighttime lights focus on human activities, in contrast to traditional Earth observing systems that focus on natural systems. It is the human activity being visible in the form of brightness of nocturnal lights. Two available nighttime lights dataset were used in this work. The first one was provided by the U.S. Air Force Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS), henceforth, DMSO-OLS. The second one is the NASA-NOAA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, henceforth, Suomi-NPP. To validate the new proposed methodology, hundreds of urban areas of South America were analyzed in a high degree of resolution. The results of this study showed that night-time lights are very well correlated with vehicle fleet, population, and impervious surfaces but with strong spatial variability. The results of this study suggest a better understanding of the human activities in the context of a vehicular-based city conception.

"Water users must be efficient producers". Women's access to and use of land in Chókwè irrigation scheme, Mozambique

The irrigation scheme Eduardo Mondlane, situated in Chókwè District - in the Southern part of the Gaza province and within the Limpopo River Basin - is the largest in the country, covering approximately 30,000 hectares of land. Built by the Portuguese colonial administration in the 1950s to exploit the agricultural potential of the area through cash-cropping, after Independence it became one of Frelimo’s flagship projects aiming at the “socialization of the countryside” and at agricultural economic development through the creation of a state farm and of several cooperatives. The failure of Frelimo’s economic reforms, several infrastructural constraints and local farmers resistance to collective forms of production led to scheme to a state of severe degradation aggravated by the floods of the year 2000. A project of technical rehabilitation initiated after the floods is currently accompanied by a strong “efficiency” discourse from the managing institution that strongly opposes the use of irrigated land for subsistence agriculture, historically a major livelihood strategy for smallfarmers, particularly for women. In fact, the area has been characterized, since the end of the XIX century, by a stable pattern of male migration towards South African mines, that has resulted in an a steady increase of women-headed households (both de jure and de facto). The relationship between land reform, agricultural development, poverty alleviation and gender equality in Southern Africa is long debated in academic literature. Within this debate, the role of agricultural activities in irrigation schemes is particularly interesting considering that, in a drought-prone area, having access to water for irrigation means increased possibilities of improving food and livelihood security, and income levels. In the case of Chókwè, local governments institutions are endorsing the development of commercial agriculture through initiatives such as partnerships with international cooperation agencies or joint-ventures with private investors. While these business models can sometimes lead to positive outcomes in terms of poverty alleviation, it is important to recognize that decentralization and neoliberal reforms occur in the context of financial and political crisis of the State that lacks the resources to efficiently manage infrastructures such as irrigation systems. This kind of institutional and economic reforms risk accelerating processes of social and economic marginalisation, including landlessness, in particular for poor rural women that mainly use irrigated land for subsistence production. The study combines an analysis of the historical and geographical context with the study of relevant literature and original fieldwork. Fieldwork was conducted between February and June 2007 (where I mainly collected secondary data, maps and statistics and conducted preliminary visit to Chókwè) and from October 2007 to March 2008. Fieldwork methodology was qualitative and used semi-structured interviews with central and local Government officials, technical experts of the irrigation scheme, civil society organisations, international NGOs, rural extensionists, and water users from the irrigation scheme, in particular those women smallfarmers members of local farmers’ associations. Thanks to the collaboration with the Union of Farmers’ Associations of Chókwè, she has been able to participate to members’ meeting, to education and training activities addressed to women farmers members of the Union and to organize a group discussion. In Chókwè irrigation scheme, women account for the 32% of water users of the familiar sector (comprising plot-holders with less than 5 hectares of land) and for just 5% of the private sector. If one considers farmers’ associations of the familiar sector (a legacy of Frelimo’s cooperatives), women are 84% of total members. However, the security given to them by the land title that they have acquired through occupation is severely endangered by the use that they make of land, that is considered as “non efficient” by the irrigation scheme authority. Due to a reduced access to marketing possibilities and to inputs, training, information and credit women, in actual fact, risk to see their right to access land and water revoked because they are not able to sustain the increasing cost of the water fee. The myth of the “efficient producer” does not take into consideration the characteristics of inequality and gender discrimination of the neo-liberal market. Expecting small-farmers, and in particular women, to be able to compete in the globalized agricultural market seems unrealistic, and can perpetuate unequal gendered access to resources such as land and water.

LCA-GIS Integrated approach for a Sustainable Land Use Under Energy Crops

In genere, negli studi di vocazionalità delle colture, vengono presi in considerazione solo variabili ambientali pedo-climatiche. La coltivazione di una coltura comporta anche un impatto ambientale derivante dalle pratiche agronomiche ed il territorio può essere più o meno sensibile a questi impatti in base alla sua vulnerabilità. In questo studio si vuole sviluppare una metodologia per relazionare spazialmente l’impatto delle colture con le caratteristiche sito specifiche del territorio in modo da considerare anche questo aspetto nell’allocazione negli studi di vocazionalità. LCA è stato utilizzato per quantificare diversi impatti di alcune colture erbacee alimentari e da energia, relazionati a mappe di vulnerabilità costruite con l’utilizzo di GIS, attraverso il calcolo di coefficienti di rischio di allocazione per ogni combinazione coltura-area vulnerabile. Le colture energetiche sono state considerate come un uso alternativo del suolo per diminuire l’impatto ambientale. Il caso studio ha mostrato che l’allocazione delle colture può essere diversa in base al tipo e al numero di impatti considerati. Il risultato sono delle mappe in cui sono riportate le distribuzioni ottimali delle colture al fine di minimizzare gli impatti, rispetto a mais e grano, due colture alimentari importanti nell’area di studio. Le colture con l’impatto più alto dovrebbero essere coltivate nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa, e viceversa. Se il rischio ambientale è la priorità, mais, colza, grano, girasole, e sorgo da fibra dovrebbero essere coltivate solo nelle aree a vulnerabilità bassa o moderata, mentre, le colture energetiche erbacee perenni, come il panico, potrebbero essere coltivate anche nelle aree a vulnerabilità alta, rappresentando cosi una opportunità per aumentare la sostenibilità di uso del suolo rurale. Lo strumento LCA-GIS inoltre, integrato con mappe di uso attuale del suolo, può aiutare a valutarne il suo grado di sostenibilità ambientale.

Land use change to perennial energy crops in Northern Italy: Effects on soil organic carbon sequestration and distribution, soil enzyme activities and microbial communities.

Studies on soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration in perennial energy crops are available for North-Central Europe, while there is insufficient information for Southern Europe. This research was conducted in the Po Valley, a Mediterranean-temperate zone characterised by low SOC levels, due to intensive management. The aim was to assess the factors influencing SOC sequestration and its distribution through depth and within soil fractions, after a 9-year old conversion from two annual systems to Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) and giant reed (Arundo donax). The 13C natural abundance was used to evaluate the amount of SOC in annual and perennial species, and determine the percentage of carbon derived from perennial crops. SOC was significantly higher under perennial species, especially in the topsoil (0-0.15 m). After 9 years, the amount of C derived from Miscanthus was 18.7 Mg ha-1, mostly stored at 0-0.15 m, whereas the amount of C derived from giant reed was 34.7 Mg ha-1, evenly distributed through layers. Physical soil fractionation was combined with 13C abundance analysis. C derived from perennial crops was mainly found in macroaggregates. Under giant reed, more newly derived-carbon was stored in microaggregates and mineral fraction than under Miscanthus. A molecular approach based on denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) allowed to evaluate changes on microbial community, after the introduction of perennial crops. Functional aspects were investigated by determining relevant soil enzymes (β-glucosidase, urease, alkaline phosphatase). Perennial crops positively stimulated these enzymes, especially in the topsoil. DGGE profiles revealed that community richness was higher in perennial crops; Shannon index of diversity was influenced only by depth. In conclusion, Miscanthus and giant reed represent a sustainable choice for the recovery of soils exhausted by intensive management, also in Mediterranean conditions and this is relevant mainly because this geographical area is notoriously characterised by a rapid turnover of SOC.

A new information fusion method for land-use classification using high resolution satellite imagery

Satellite image classification involves designing and developing efficient image classifiers. With satellite image data and image analysis methods multiplying rapidly, selecting the right mix of data sources and data analysis approaches has become critical to the generation of quality land-use maps. In this study, a new postprocessing information fusion algorithm for the extraction and representation of land-use information based on high-resolution satellite imagery is presented. This approach can produce land-use maps with sharp interregional boundaries and homogeneous regions. The proposed approach is conducted in five steps. First, a GIS layer - ATKIS data - was used to generate two coarse homogeneous regions, i.e. urban and rural areas. Second, a thematic (class) map was generated by use of a hybrid spectral classifier combining Gaussian Maximum Likelihood algorithm (GML) and ISODATA classifier. Third, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm was performed on the thematic map, resulting in a smoothed thematic map. Fourth, edge detection and edge thinning techniques were used to generate a contour map with pixel-width interclass boundaries. Fifth, the contour map was superimposed on the thematic map by use of a region-growing algorithm with the contour map and the smoothed thematic map as two constraints. For the operation of the proposed method, a software package is developed using programming language C. This software package comprises the GML algorithm, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm, TBL edge detector, an edge thresholding algorithm, a fast parallel thinning algorithm, and a region-growing information fusion algorithm. The county of Landau of the State Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany was selected as a test site. The high-resolution IRS-1C imagery was used as the principal input data.