A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Interpreting the upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation

The nonlinear response of a spherical shallow water model to an imposed heat source in the presence of realistic zonal mean zonal winds is investigated numerically. The solutions exhibit elongated, meridionally tilted ridges and troughs indicative of a poleward dispersion of wave activity. As the speed of the jets is increased, the equatorial Kelvin wave is unaffected but the global Rossby wave train coalesces to form a compact, amplified quadrupole structure that bears a striking resemblance to the observed upper level structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation. In the presence of strong subtropical westerly jets, the advection of planetary vorticity by the meridional flow and relative vorticity by the zonally averaged background flow conspire to create the distinctive quadrupole configuration of flanking Rossby waves.

Do gamma oscillations play a role in cerebral cortex?

Gamma rhythm (which has a center frequency between 30 and 80 Hz) is modulated by cognitive mechanisms such as attention and memory, and has been hypothesized to play a role in mediating these processes by supporting communication channels between cortical areas or encoding information in its phase. We highlight several issues related to gamma rhythms, such as low and inconsistent power, its dependence on low-level stimulus features, problems due to conduction delays, and contamination due to spike-related activity that makes accurate estimation of gamma phase difficult. Gamma rhythm could be a potentially useful signature of excitation-inhibition interactions in the brain, but whether it also provides a mechanism for information processing or coding remains an open question.

Coding of relative size in monkey inferotemporal cortex

We seldom mistake a closer object as being larger, even though its retinal image is bigger. One underlying mechanism could be to calculate the size of the retinal image relative to that of another nearby object. Here we set out to investigate whether single neurons in the monkey inferotemporal cortex (IT) are sensitive to the relative size of parts in a display. Each neuron was tested on shapes containing two parts that could be conjoined or spatially separated. Each shape was presented in four versions created by combining the two parts at each of two possible sizes. In this design, neurons sensitive to the absolute size of parts would show the greatest response modulation when both parts are scaled up, whereas neurons encoding relative size would show similar responses. Our main findings are that 1) IT neurons responded similarly to all four versions of a shape, but tuning tended to be more consistent between versions with proportionately scaled parts; 2) in a subpopulation of cells, we observed interactions that resulted in similar responses to proportionately scaled parts; 3) these interactions developed together with sensitivity to absolute size for objects with conjoined parts but developed slightly later for objects with spatially separate parts. Taken together, our results demonstrate for the first time that there is a subpopulation of neurons in IT that encodes the relative size of parts in a display, forming a potential neural substrate for size constancy.

Dynamics of 3D view invariance in monkey inferotemporal cortex

Rotations in depth are challenging for object vision because features can appear, disappear, be stretched or compressed. Yet we easily recognize objects across views. Are the underlying representations view invariant or dependent? This question has been intensely debated in human vision, but the neuronal representations remain poorly understood. Here, we show that for naturalistic objects, neurons in the monkey inferotemporal (IT) cortex undergo a dynamic transition in time, whereby they are initially sensitive to viewpoint and later encode view-invariant object identity. This transition depended on two aspects of object structure: it was strongest when objects foreshortened strongly across views and were similar to each other. View invariance in IT neurons was present even when objects were reduced to silhouettes, suggesting that it can arise through similarity between external contours of objects across views. Our results elucidate the viewpoint debate by showing that view invariance arises dynamically in IT neurons out of a representation that is initially view dependent.

Bearing capacity factors for a conical footing using lower- and upper-bound finite elements limit analysis

Bearing capacity factors, N-c, N-q, and N-gamma, for a conical footing are determined by using the lower and upper bound axisymmetric formulation of the limit analysis in combination with finite elements and optimization. These factors are obtained in a bound form for a wide range of the values of cone apex angle (beta) and phi with delta = 0, 0.5 phi, and phi. The bearing capacity factors for a perfectly rough (delta = phi) conical footing generally increase with a decrease in beta. On the contrary, for delta = 0 degrees, the factors N-c and N-q reduce gradually with a decrease in beta. For delta = 0 degrees, the factor N-gamma for phi >= 35 degrees becomes a minimum for beta approximate to 90 degrees. For delta = 0 degrees, N-gamma for phi <= 30 degrees, as in the case of delta = phi, generally reduces with an increase in beta. The failure and nodal velocity patterns are also examined. The results compare well with different numerical solutions and centrifuge tests' data available from the literature.

Upper bound on cubicity in terms of boxicity for graphs of low chromatic number

The boxicity (respectively cubicity) of a graph G is the least integer k such that G can be represented as an intersection graph of axis-parallel k-dimensional boxes (respectively k-dimensional unit cubes) and is denoted by box(G) (respectively cub(G)). It was shown by Adiga and Chandran (2010) that for any graph G, cub(G) <= box(G) log(2) alpha(G], where alpha(G) is the maximum size of an independent set in G. In this note we show that cub(G) <= 2 log(2) X (G)] box(G) + X (G) log(2) alpha(G)], where x (G) is the chromatic number of G. This result can provide a much better upper bound than that of Adiga and Chandran for graph classes with bounded chromatic number. For example, for bipartite graphs we obtain cub(G) <= 2(box(G) + log(2) alpha(G)] Moreover, we show that for every positive integer k, there exist graphs with chromatic number k such that for every epsilon > 0, the value given by our upper bound is at most (1 + epsilon) times their cubicity. Thus, our upper bound is almost tight. (c) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrologic aspects of freshening upper Old Tampa Bay, Florida

Upper Old Tampa Bay, a 17-square mile area of Old Tampa Bay, Florida, has been proposed for conversion to a fresh-water lake. The amount of runoff to the proposed lake and its chemical quality are both adequate to freshen and sustain a fresh-water lake in this part of the bay. During 1950-66 runoff to the proposed lake, including discharge from Lake Tarpon, would have averaged 134 mgd (million gallons per day) and would have displaced the volume of the proposed lake at normal pool stage (2.5 feet above mean sea level) about 1.7 times per year. Without discharge from Lake Tarpon, the volume of the proposed lake would have been displaced 1.2 times. If the lake level was initially at a normal pool stage during a critically dry year, such as 1956, the proposed lake would have declined 0.25 to 0.5 foot below the minimum design level, (1.5 feet above mean sea level). (44 page document)

Vertical transport and exchange of materials in the upper waters of the oceans (VERTEX): introduction to the program, hydrographic conditions and major component fluxes during VERTEX I

This paper introduces VERTEX, a multi-disciplinary research program dealing with various aspects of particle transport in the upper, high-energy layers (0-2000 m) of the ocean. Background information is presented on hydrography, biological composition of trapped particulates, and major component fluxes observed on a cruise off central California (VERTEX I). Organic C fluxes measured with two trap systems are compared with several other estimates taken from the literature. The intent of this overview paper is to provide a common setting in an economical manner, and avoid undue repetition of background and ancillary information in subsequent publications. (PDF is 43 pages).

The distribution of cirripeds and gastropods on plain vertical rock surfaces in the upper intertidal and splash zones

This is a student paper done for a University of California Berkeley Zoology class. Since UCB didn't have its own marine lab at the time, it rented space at Hopkins Marine Station where this work was done. Cadet Hand earned his Ph.D. from Berkeley and went on to become Director of the Bodega Marine Laboratory. Donald Putnam Abbott also earned his Ph.D. from Berkeley and later became a Stanford professor at Hopkins Marine Station. (PDF contains 26 pages)

Egg production, spawning biomass and factors influencing recruitment of striped bass in the Potomac River and the upper Chesapeake Bay

Ichthyoplankton surveys in the Potomac River and Upper Chesapeake Bay were carried out in 1989 to estimate striped bass egg productions, age specific spawning biomasses of adult females, cohort-specific larval growth and mortality rates, and hatch dates of 8.0 mm larvae survivors. Possible consequences to recruitment of environmental factors were examined in 1989 and for data collected in 1987-1988. The temporal and spatial occurrences and distributions of eggs and larvae In both spawning areas are described and discussed in relation to environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, river discharge, pH, conductivity, zooplankton abundances) (PDF contains 319 pages)

Early astrocytic atrophy in the entorhinal cortex of a triple transgenic animal model of Alzheimer's disease

The EC (entorhinal cortex) is fundamental for cognitive and mnesic functions. Thus damage to this area appears as a key element in the progression of AD (Alzheimer's disease), resulting in memory deficits arising from neuronal and synaptic alterations as well as glial malfunction. In this paper, we have performed an in-depth analysis of astroglial morphology in the EC by measuring the surface and volume of the GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein) profiles in a triple transgenic mouse model of AD [3xTg-AD (triple transgenic mice of AD)]. We found significant reduction in both the surface and volume of GFAP-labelled profiles in 3xTg-AD animals from very early ages (1 month) when compared with non-Tg (non-transgenic) controls (48 and 54%, reduction respectively), which was sustained for up to 12 months (33 and 45% reduction respectively). The appearance of Lambda beta (amyloid beta-peptide) depositions at 12 months of age did not trigger astroglial hypertrophy; nor did it result in the close association of astrocytes with senile plaques. Our results suggest that the AD progressive cognitive deterioration can be associated with an early reduction of astrocytic arborization and shrinkage of the astroglial domain, which may affect synaptic connectivity within the EC and between the EC and other brain regions. In addition, the EC seems to be particularly vulnerable to AD pathology because of the absence of evident astrogliosis in response to A beta accumulation. Thus we can consider that targeting astroglial atrophy may represent a therapeutic strategy which might slow down the progression of AD.