The effect of windstress change on future sea level change in the Southern Ocean

AOGCMs of the two latest phases (CMIP3 and CMIP5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, like earlier AOGCMs, predict large regional variations in future sea level change. The model-mean pattern of change in CMIP3 and CMIP5 is very similar, and its most prominent feature is a zonal dipole in the Southern Ocean: sea level rise is larger than the global mean north of 50°S and smaller than the global mean south of 50°S in most models. The individual models show widely varying patterns, although the inter-model spread in local sea level change is smaller in CMIP5 than in CMIP3. Here we investigate whether changes in windstress can explain the different patterns of projected sea level change, especially the Southern Ocean feature, using two AOGCMs forced by the changes in windstress from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs. We show that the strengthening and poleward shift of westerly windstress accounts for the most of the large spread among models in magnitude of this feature. In the Indian, North Pacific and Arctic Oceans, the windstress change is influential, but does not completely account for the projected sea level change.

Activities related with electricity consumption in the Spanish residential sector: variations between days of the week, Autonomous Communities and size of towns

Nowadays the electricity consumption in the residential sector attracts policy and research efforts, in order to propose saving strategies and to attain a better balance between production and consumption, by integrating renewable energy production and proposing suitable demand side management methods. To achieve these objectives it is essential to have real information about household electricity demand profiles in dwellings, highly correlated, among other aspects, with the active occupancy of the homes and to the personal activities carried out in homes by their occupants. Due to the limited information related to these aspects, in this paper, behavioral factors of the Spanish household residents, related to the electricity consumption, have been determined and analyzed, based on data from the Spanish Time Use Surveys, differentiating among the Autonomous Communities and the size of municipalities, or the type of days, weekdays or weekends. Activities involving a larger number of houses are those related to Personal Care, Food Preparation and Washing Dishes. The activity of greater realization at homes is Watching TV, which together with Using PC, results in a high energy demand in an aggregate level. Results obtained enable identify prospective targets for load control and for efficiency energy reduction recommendations to residential consumers.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 1. correction of the sunspot number record since 1874

We analyse the widely-used international/ Zürich sunspot number record, R, with a view to quantifying a suspected calibration discontinuity around 1945 (which has been termed the “Waldmeier discontinuity” [Svalgaard, 2011]). We compare R against the composite sunspot group data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) network and the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), using both the number of sunspot groups, N{sub}G{\sub}, and the total area of the sunspots, A{sub}G{\sub}. In addition, we compare R with the recently developed interdiurnal variability geomagnetic indices IDV and IDV(1d). In all four cases, linearity of the relationship with R is not assumed and care is taken to ensure that the relationship of each with R is the same before and after the putative calibration change. It is shown the probability that a correction is not needed is of order 10{sup}−8{\sup} and that R is indeed too low before 1945. The optimum correction to R for values before 1945 is found to be 11.6%, 11.7%, 10.3% and 7.9% using A{sub}G{\sub}, N{sub)G{\sub}, IDV, and IDV(1d), respectively. The optimum value obtained by combining the sunspot group data is 11.6% with an uncertainty range 8.1-14.8% at the 2σ level. The geomagnetic indices provide an independent yet less stringent test but do give values that fall within the 2σ uncertainty band with optimum values are slightly lower than from the sunspot group data. The probability of the correction needed being as large as 20%, as advocated by Svalgaard [2011], is shown to be 1.6 × 10{sup}−5{\sup}.

Sea level extremes at the coasts of China

Hourly sea level records from 1954 to 2012 at 20 tide gauges at and adjacent to the Chinese coasts are used to analyze extremes in sea level and in tidal residual. Tides and tropical cyclones determine the spatial distribution of sea level maxima. Tidal residual maxima are predominantly determined by tropical cyclones. The 50 year return level is found to be sensitive to the number of extreme events used in the estimation. This is caused by the small number of tropical cyclone events happening each year which lead to other local storm events included thus significantly affecting the estimates. Significant increase in sea level extremes is found with trends in the range between 2.0 and 14.1 mm yr−1. The trends are primarily driven by changes in median sea level but also linked with increases in tidal amplitudes at three stations. Tropical cyclones cause significant interannual variations in the extremes. The interannual variability in the sea level extremes is also influenced by the changes in median sea level at the north and by the 18.6 year nodal cycle at the South China Sea. Neither of PDO and ENSO is found to be an indicator of changes in the size of extremes, but ENSO appears to regulate the number of tropical cyclones that reach the Chinese coasts. Global mean atmospheric temperature appears to be a good descriptor of the interannual variability of tidal residual extremes induced by tropical cyclones but the trend in global temperature is inconsistent with the lack of trend in the residuals.

Axillary bud development in pineapple nodal segments correlates with changes on cell cycle gene expression, hormone level, and sucrose and glutamate contents

During the process of lateral organ development after plant decapitation, cell division and differentiation occur in a balanced manner initiated by specific signaling, which triggers the reentrance into the cell cycle. Here, we investigated short-term variations in the content of some endogenous signals, such as auxin, cytokinins (Cks), and other mitogenic stimuli (sucrose and glutamate), which are likely correlated with the cell cycle reactivation in the axillary bud primordium of pineapple nodal segments. Transcript levels of cell cycle-associated genes, CycD2;1, and histone H2A were analyzed. Nodal segments containing the quiescent axillary meristem cells were cultivated in vitro during 24 h after the apex removal and de-rooting. From the moment of stem apex and root removal, decapitated nodal segment (DNS) explants showed a lower indol-3-acetic acid (IAA) concentration than control explants, and soon after, an increase of endogenous sucrose and iP-type Cks were detected. The decrease of IAA may be the primary signal for cell cycle control early in G1 phase, leading to the upregulation of CycD2;1 gene in the first h. Later, the iP-type Cks and sucrose could have triggered the progression to S-phase since there was an increase in H2A expression at the eighth h. DNS explants revealed substantial increase in Z-type Cks and glutamate from the 12th h, suggesting that these mitogens could also operate in promoting pineapple cell cycle progression. We emphasize that the use of non-synchronized tissue rather than synchronous cell suspension culture makes it more difficult to interpret the results of a dynamic cell division process. However, pineapple nodal segments cultivated in vitro may serve as an interesting model to shed light on apical dominance release and the reentrance of quiescent axillary meristem cells into the cell cycle.

Can the use of foreign currency derivatives explain variations in foreign exchange exposure? Evidence from Australian companies

We investigate the role of foreign currency derivatives (FCD) in alleviating foreign exchange rate exposure of Australian firms. While there is some evidence that the use of FCD reduces the level of ex-post short-term exposure, such an effect is absent with regard to the degree of foreign operations. Our results support the view that FCDs are used to hedge existing exchange rate exposures and that Australian firms, generally, are extensively exposed to currency fluctuations in the long run. While monthly exposure appears to be a function of a firm's size and financial hedging, exchange rate exposure of shorter horizons (1 and 3 months) appears to be negatively related to a firm's price earnings ratio (proxying growth opportunities)—thereby supporting the ‘underinvestment’ hypothesis. Further, the exposure of longer horizons (12 and 24 months) is positively related to a firm's liquidity, supporting the view that liquidity is a substitute for hedging.

Use of an auditory looming task to test infants' sensitivity to sound pressure level as an auditory distance cue

This study describes how an auditory looming technique was used to investigate 4-to 6-month-old infants' sensitivity to sound pressure level (SPL) as an auditory distance cue. Thirty-two infants were tested in complete darkness and presented with auditory stimuli that underwent unidirectional variations in SPL (40–70dB). The rate at which SPL was varied during the course of trials (past vs. slow) was manipulated by varying trial length (5s vs. 10s).

Weight and place: a multilevel cross-sectional survey of area-level social disadvantage and overweight/obesity in Australia

Objective: To estimate variation between small areas in adult body mass index (BMI), and assess the importance of area level socioeconomic disadvantage in predicting BMI.

Methods: We identified all census collector districts (CCDs) in the 20 innermost Local Government Areas in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, and ranked them by the percentage of low income households (<$400/week). In all, 50 CCDs were randomly selected from the least, middle and most disadvantaged septiles of the ranked list and 4913 residents (61.4% participation rate) completed one of two surveys. Multilevel linear regression was used to estimate area level variance in BMI and the importance of area level socioeconomic disadvantage in predicting BMI.

Results: There were significant variations in BMI between CCDs for women, even after adjustment for individual and area SES (P=0.012); significant area variation was not found for men. Living in the most versus least disadvantaged areas was associated with an average difference in BMI of 1.08 kg/m² (95% CI: 0.48–1.68 kg/m²) for women, and of 0.93 kg/m² (95% CI: 0.32–1.55 kg/m²) for men. Living in the mid versus least disadvantaged areas were associated with an average difference in BMI of 0.67 kg/m² (95% CI: 0.09–1.26 kg/m²) for women, and 0.43 kg/m² for men (95% CI: -0.16–1.01).

Conclusion: These findings suggest that area disadvantage is an important predictor of adult BMI, and support the need to focus on improving local environments to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in overweight and obesity.

Hail to the chief! Leadership and structural change in the level of consensus on the High Court of Australia

This article identifies structural breaks in dissenting and single opinions on the High Court of Australia and uses a recent method proposed by Caporale and Grier (2002) to examine the effect of leadership on variations in the dissent rate between 1904 and 2001. Although there has been much speculation about the effectiveness of different Chief Justices in obtaining consensus on the Court, to this point most of the evidence has been anecdotal. Our main findings are that the structural breaks that we identify coincide with major turning points in the leadership of the Court and that leadership has been important in explaining variations in the proportion of dissenting opinions on the Court.

Can social cognitive theory constructs explain socio-economic variations in adolescent eating behaviours? A mediation analysis

Adolescents of low socio-economic position (SEP) are less likely than those of higher SEP to consume diets in line with current dietary recommendations. The reasons for these SEP variations remain poorly understood. We investigated the mechanisms underlying socio-economic variations in adolescents’ eating behaviours using a theoretically derived explanatory model. Data were obtained from a community-based sample of 2529 adolescents aged 12–15 years, from 37 secondary schools in Victoria, Australia. Adolescents completed a web-based survey assessing their eating behaviours, self-efficacy for healthy eating, perceived importance of nutrition and health, social modelling and support and the availability of foods in the home. Parents provided details of maternal education level, which was used as an indicator of SEP. All social cognitive constructs assessed mediated socio-economic variations in at least one indicator of adolescents’ diet. Cognitive factors were the strongest mediator of socio-economic variations in fruit intakes, while for energy-dense snack foods and fast foods, availability of energy-dense snacks at home tended to be strong mediators. Social cognitive theory provides a useful framework for understanding socio-economic variations in adolescent's diet and might guide public health programmes and policies focusing on improving adolescent nutrition among those experiencing socio-economic disadvantage.

Socio-economic and demographic variations in school lunch participation of French children aged 3-17 years

Objective: To assess school canteen attendance in a French nationally representative sample of children and to analyse its association with the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the children and their families.
Design: Data from the second French national cross-sectional food consumption survey (INCA2), performed in 2006–2007, were used. Information on usual weekly school canteen attendance was collected through a self-reported questionnaire, and demographic and socio-economic variables through a face-to-face questionnaire. The associations between school canteen attendance and the socio-economic and demographic variables were investigated by multivariate logistic regression analyses.
Setting: The INCA2 sample was representative of the children aged 3–17 years in France.
Subject: Analysis was performed on 1413 schoolchildren who completed the school canteen attendance questions.
Results: Some 65?6% of schoolchildren aged 3–17 years had school lunch at least once weekly. This rate of attendance was positively correlated with age. Whatever the school level, school canteen attendance was positively associated with the educational level of the caregiver/parent. In pre- and elementary-school children, enrolment at the school canteen was also higher when the caregiver/parent worked, or in single-parent families. In secondary-school children, school lunch participation decreased with children living in more densely populated areas and increased with the level of the household’s living standards.
Conclusions: School canteen attendance was positively associated with children’s socio-economic background. This could reduce the effectiveness of the forthcoming school meal composition regulations designed to improve the diet of children from deprived backgrounds, who are more likely to have unhealthy food habits.

Oxidative stress : emerging mitochondrial and cellular themes and variations in neuronal injury

Oxidative stress plays a central role in neuronal injury and cell death in acute and chronic pathological conditions. The cellular responses to oxidative stress embrace changes in mitochondria and other organelles, notably endoplasmic reticulum, and can lead to a number of cell death paradigms, which cover a spectrum from apoptosis to necrosis and include autophagy. In Alzheimer's disease, and other pathologies including Parkinson's disease, protein aggregation provides further cellular stresses that can initiate or feed into the pathways to cell death engendered by oxidative stress. Specific attention is paid here to mitochondrial dysfunction and programmed cell death, and the diverse modes of cell death mediated by mitochondria under oxidative stress. Novel insights into cellular responses to neuronal oxidative stress from a range of different stressors can be gained by detailed transcriptomics analyses. Such studies at the cellular level provide the key for understanding the molecular and cellular pathways whereby neurons respond to oxidative stress and undergo injury and death. These considerations underpin the development of detailed knowledge in more complex integrated systems, up to the intact human bearing the neuropathology, facilitating therapeutic advances.

Neighborhood and individual socio-economic variations in the contribution of occupational physical activity to total physical activity

Background: There is an inverse relationship between individual socio-economic status (SES) and amount of occupational physical activity. The role of the socio-economic environment is, however, less clear. This study examined the independent influences of neighborhood and individual SES on absolute and relative amount of occupational physical activity. It also examined the moderating effects of neighborhood SES on the relationship between individual SES and occupational physical activity.

Methods: Employees (n = 1236) resident in high or low SES neighborhoods were assessed on socio-demographic factors, including educational attainment and household income, and physical activity.

Results: Neighborhood SES and individual SES were independently inversely related to absolute and relative amount of occupational physical activity. Significant interactions between neighborhood SES and level of educational attainment in the contribution of total and vigorous occupational physical activity to total physical activity were found.

Conclusions: Neighborhood SES can function as a moderator in the relationship between individual SES and occupational physical activity.

Unwanted sexual advances at work: variations by employment arrangement in a sample of working Australians

Objective: We tested the hypothesis that the risk of experiencing unwanted sexual advances at work (UWSA) is greater for precariously-employed workers in comparison to those in permanent or continuing employment. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based telephone survey was conducted in Victoria (66% response rate, N=1,101). Employment arrangements were analysed using eight differentiated categories, as well as a four-category collapsed measure to address small cell sizes. Self-report of unwanted sexual advances at work was modelled using multiple logistic regression in relation to employment arrangement, controlling for gender, age, and occupational skill level. Results: Forty-seven respondents reported UWSA in our sample (4.3%), mainly among women (37 of 47). Risk of UWSA was higher for younger respondents, but did not vary significantly by occupational skill level or education. In comparison to Permanent Full-Time, three employment arrangements were strongly associated with UWSA after adjustment for age, gender, and occupational skill level: Casual Full-Time OR = 7.2 (95% Confidence Interval 1.7-30.2); Fixed-Term Contract OR = 11.4 (95% CI 3.4-38.8); and Own-Account Self-Employed OR = 3.8 (95% CI 1.2-11.7). In analyses of females only, the magnitude of these associations was further increased. Conclusions: Respondents employed in precarious arrangements were more likely to report being exposed to UWSA, even after adjustment for age and gender. Implications: Greater protections from UWSA are likely needed for precariously employed workers.

Behavioural effects of tourism on oceanic common dolphins, Delphinus sp., in New Zealand: the effects of Markov analysis variations and current tour operator compliance with regulations

Common dolphins, Delphinus sp., are one of the marine mammal species tourism operations in New Zealand focus on. While effects of cetacean-watching activities have previously been examined in coastal regions in New Zealand, this study is the first to investigate effects of commercial tourism and recreational vessels on common dolphins in an open oceanic habitat. Observations from both an independent research vessel and aboard commercial tour vessels operating off the central and east coast Bay of Plenty, North Island, New Zealand were used to assess dolphin behaviour and record the level of compliance by permitted commercial tour operators and private recreational vessels with New Zealand regulations. Dolphin behaviour was assessed using two different approaches to Markov chain analysis in order to examine variation of responses of dolphins to vessels. Results showed that, regardless of the variance in Markov methods, dolphin foraging behaviour was significantly altered by boat interactions. Dolphins spent less time foraging during interactions and took significantly longer to return to foraging once disrupted by vessel presence. This research raises concerns about the potential disruption to feeding, a biologically critical behaviour. This may be particularly important in an open oceanic habitat, where prey resources are typically widely dispersed and unpredictable in abundance. Furthermore, because tourism in this region focuses on common dolphins transiting between adjacent coastal locations, the potential for cumulative effects could exacerbate the local effects demonstrated in this study. While the overall level of compliance by commercial operators was relatively high, non-compliance to the regulations was observed with time restriction, number or speed of vessels interacting with dolphins not being respected. Additionally, prohibited swimming with calves did occur. The effects shown in this study should be carefully considered within conservation management plans, in order to reduce the risk of detrimental effects on common dolphins within the region.