Three essays in risk management in financial institutions

The choice to adopt risk-sensitive measurement approaches for operational risks: the case of Advanced Measurement Approach under Basel II New Capital Accord This paper investigates the choice of the operational risk approach under Basel II requirements and whether the adoption of advanced risk measurement approaches allows banks to save capital. Among the three possible approaches for operational risk measurement, the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) is the most sophisticated and requires the use of historical loss data, the application of statistical tools, and the engagement of a highly qualified staff. Our results provide evidence that the adoption of AMA is contingent on the availability of bank resources and prior experience in risk-sensitive operational risk measurement practices. Moreover, banks that choose AMA exhibit low requirements for capital and, as a result might gain a competitive advantage compared to banks that opt for less sophisticated approaches. - Internal Risk Controls and their Impact on Bank Solvency Recent cases in financial sector showed the importance of risk management controls on risk taking and firm performance. Despite advances in the design and implementation of risk management mechanisms, there is little research on their impact on behavior and performance of firms. Based on data from a sample of 88 banks covering the period between 2004 and 2010, we provide evidence that internal risk controls impact the solvency of banks. In addition, our results show that the level of internal risk controls leads to a higher degree of solvency in banks with a major shareholder in contrast to widely-held banks. However, the relationship between internal risk controls and bank solvency is negatively affected by BHC growth strategies and external restrictions on bank activities, while the higher regulatory requirements for bank capital moderates positively this relationship. - The Impact of the Sophistication of Risk Measurement Approaches under Basel II on Bank Holding Companies Value Previous research showed the importance of external regulation on banks' behavior. Some inefficient standards may accentuate risk-taking in banks and provoke a financial crisis. Despite the growing literature on the potential effects of Basel II rules, there is little empirical research on the efficiency of risk-sensitive capital measurement approaches and their impact on bank profitability and market valuation. Based on data from a sample of 66 banks covering the period between 2008 and 2010, we provide evidence that prudential ratios computed under Basel II standards predict the value of banks. However, this relation is contingent on the degree of sophistication of risk measurement approaches that banks apply. Capital ratios are effective in predicting bank market valuation when banks adopt the advanced approaches to compute the value of their risk-weighted assets.

Emplacement of ultramafic rocks into the continental crust monitored by light and other trace elements: An example from the Geisspfad body (Swiss-Italian Alps)

In order to evaluate the influence of continental crustal rocks on trace element budgets of serpentinized peridotites incorporated into the continental crust, we have analyzed the chemical composition of whole rock samples and minerals of the Geisspfad ultramafic complex (Swiss-Italian Alps). This complex represents a relict oceanic succession composed of serpentinites, ophicarbonates and metabasic rocks, emplaced into crustal gneisses during Alpine collision. Following peak metamorphic amphibolite facies conditions, fluid flow modified some of the trace element contents of ophicarbonates and deformed serpentinites close to the contact with country rocks. The fluid originated from the surrounding continental crustal rocks as documented by the increase of Pb in the serpentinites, and by the strongly negative all) values (-112 parts per thousand) of some ultramafic rocks close to the contact with surrounding gneisses. Little or no modification of the fluid mobile elements Li, B or U was observed in the serpentinite. In-situ analysis of light elements of serpentinite minerals indicate redistribution of light elements coupled to changes of mineral modes towards the outer 100-150 m of the massif. In the centre of the massif, Li is preferentially concentrated in olivine, while Be and B are hosted by tremolite. In contrast, at the outer rim of the massif, Li and Be are preferentially incorporated into diopside, and B into antigorite. This redistribution of light elements among the different minerals is visible in the serpentinite, at a maximum distance of -100-150 m from the ophicarbonate-metabasite contact. Our results show that interaction of ultramafic rocks and crust-derived fluids can be easily detected by studies of Pb and partial derivative D in whole rocks. We argue that small ultramafic bodies potentially record an emplacement-related trace element signature, and that crustal light element values in ultramafic rocks are not necessarily derived from a subducting slab. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Forest Growth with Management Data: A Matrix Approach for the Italian Alps

Summary

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Three essays on internationalization and firm entrepreneurial behavior

PAPER 1: A THEORY ON THE EFFECTS OF INTERNATIONALIZATION ON FIRM ENTREPRENEURIAL BEHAVIOR AND GROWTH Abstract This article addresses the relationship. Past findings reveal that the direct effects of internationalization on performance are mixed and inconclusive. Our framework integrates firm entrepreneurial behavior as a mediating force of the troublesome Drawing on the tension between the entrepreneurship literature and the organizational inertia theory, we argue that internationalization is key to minimizing the stifling effects of inertia and in engendering entrepreneurial behavior towards growth. We suggest that firms that internationalize at a young age and enjoy an intense degree of internationalization tend to become more entrepreneurial than do late and weakly internationalized firms. As a consequence, early and intense internationalizers experience superior growth. Aware of the inherent endogeneity of our propositions, we also discuss how consistent estimates can be obtained when testing the model empirically. PAPER 2: DOES INTERNATIONALIZATION MATTER FOR GROWTH? THE CASE OF SWISS SOFTWARE FIRMS. Abstract This paper seeks to address the issue of whether early and intense internationalization leads to superior firm growth. We revisit the hypotheses of previous studies within the emerging research domain of international entrepreneurship. Empirical analyses on the performance implications of internationalization have so far been limited and inconsistent. Our paper intends to make two contributions to the international entrepreneurship literature. First, we bring additional empirical evidence as to the inconclusive firm performance endogeneity in our causal model, using a sample of 103 Swiss international small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). On one hand, we find that the degree of internationalization significantly increases perceived firm growth (i.e., relative firm performance in a market); however, age at internationalization was unrelated to perceived firm growth. On the other hand, we reproduced the causal path of a highly cited study that showed how age at internationalization was significantly and negatively associated with objective firm growth (i.e., sales). Interestingly, our results support the study similar setting (OLS regression with comparable control variables); however, the effect for age at internationalization reverses when we correct for endogeneity. PAPER 3: EFFECT OF INTERNATIONALIZATION ON FIRM ENTREPRENEURIAL ORIENTATION AND PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF SWISS SOFTWARE FIRMS. Abstract How does internationalization influence a firm orientation (EO) and is this related to firm growth? This paper inquires into the performance theorizing, we test a process model in which EO plays a mediating role in accounting for the relationship between internationalization and growth. We position this paper on the tension zone between the entrepreneurship literature and the organizational inertia theory. We lay out the argument that internationalization is source of opportunities that drives a firm and thus mitigates inertial pressure. Using a sample of Swiss software small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), we found that degree of internationalization (but not age of internationalization) increases EO, which subsequently increased firm growth.

Essays on the treatment of cash flows under stochastic interest rates

Abstract This paper shows how to calculate recursively the moments of the accumulated and discounted value of cash flows when the instantaneous rates of return follow a conditional ARMA process with normally distributed innovations. We investigate various moment based approaches to approximate the distribution of the accumulated value of cash flows and we assess their performance through stochastic Monte-Carlo simulations. We discuss the potential use in insurance and especially in the context of Asset-Liability Management of pension funds.

Leadership at the upper echelons : three essays

"IT'S THE ECONOMY STUPID", BUT CHARISMA MATTERS TOO: A DUAL PROCESS MODEL OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OUTCOMES. ABSTRACT Because charisma is assumed to be an important determinant of effective leadership, the extent to which a presidential nominee is more charismatic than his opponent should be an important determinant of voter choices. We computed a composite measure of the rhetorical richness of acceptances speeches given by U.S. presidential candidates at their national party convention. We added this marker of charisma to Ray C. Fair's presidential vote-share equation (1978; 2009). We theorized that voters decide using psychological attribution (i.e., due to macroeconomics and incumbency) as well as inferential processes (i.e., due to leader charismatic behavior) when voting. Controlling for the macro-level variables and incumbency in the Fair model, our results indicated that difference between nominees' charisma is a significant determinant of electoral success, particularly in close elections. This extended model significantly improves the precision of the Fair model and correctly predicts 23 out of the last 24 U.S. presidential elections. Paper 2: IT CEO LEADERSHIP, CORPORATE SOCIAL AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE. ABSTRACT We investigated whether CEO leadership predicted corporate financial performance (CFP) and corporate social performance (CSP). Using longitudinal data on 258 CEOs from 117 firms across 19 countries and 10 industry sectors, we found that determinants of CEO leadership (i.e., implicit motives) significantly predicted both CFP and CSP. As expected, the most consistent positive predictor was Responsibility Disposition when interacting with n (need for) Power. n Achievement and n Affiliation were generally negatively related or unrelated to outcomes. CSP was positively related to accounting measures of CFP. Our findings suggest that executive leader characteristics have important consequences for corporate level outcomes. Paper 3. PUNISHING THE POWERFUL: ATTRIBUTIONS OF BLAME AND LEADERSHIP ABSTRACT We propose that individuals are more lenient in attributing blame to leaders than to nonleaders. We advance a motivational explanation building on the perspective of punishment and on system justification theory. We conducted two scenario experiments which supported our proposition. In study 1, wrongdoer leader status was negatively related to blame and the perceived seriousness of the wrongdoing. In study 2, controlling for the Big-Five personality factor and individual differences in moral evaluation (i.e., moral foundations), wrongdoer leader status was negatively related with desired severity of punishment, and fair punishments were perceived as more just for non-leaders than for leaders.