214 resultados para Inundation
Resumo:
Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.
Resumo:
The closed Tangra Yumco Basin underwent the strongest Quaternary lake-level changes so far recorded on the Tibetan Plateau. It was hitherto unknown what effect this had on local Holocene vegetation development. A 3.6-m sediment core from a recessional lake terrace at 4,700 m a.s.l., 160 m above the present lake level of Tangra Yumco, was studied to reconstruct Holocene flooding phases (sedimentology and ostracod analyses), vegetation dynamics and human influence (palynology, charcoal and coprophilous fungi analyses). Peat at the base of the profile proves lake level was below 4,700 m a.s.l. during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition. A deep-lake phase started after 11 cal ka BP, but the ostracod record indicates the level was not higher than similar to 4,720 m a.s.l. (180 m above present) and decreased gradually after the early Holocene maximum. Additional sediment ages from the basin suggest recession of Tangra Yumco from the coring site after 2.6 cal ka BP, with a shallow local lake persisting at the site until similar to 1 cal ka BP. The final peat formation indicates drier conditions thereafter. Persistence of Artemisia steppe during the Holocene lake high-stand resembles palynological records from west Tibet that indicate early Holocene aridity, in spite of high lake levels that may have resulted from meltwater input. Yet pollen assemblages indicate humidity closer to that of present potential forest areas near Lhasa, with 500-600 mm annual precipitation. Thus, the early mid-Holocene humidity was sufficient to sustain at least juniper forest, but Artemisia dominance persisted as a consequence of a combination of environmental disturbances such as (1) strong early Holocene climate fluctuations, (2) inundation of habitats suitable for forest, (3) extensive water surfaces that served as barriers to terrestrial diaspore transport from refuge areas, (4) strong erosion that denuded the non-flooded upper slopes and (5) increasing human influence since the late glacial.
Resumo:
Simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of inundation is key to understanding the role of wetlands under past and future climate change. Earlier modelling studies have mostly relied on fixed prescribed peatland maps and inundation time series of limited temporal coverage. Here, we describe and assess the the Dynamical Peatland Model Based on TOPMODEL (DYPTOP), which predicts the extent of inundation based on a computationally efficient TOPMODEL implementation. This approach rests on an empirical, grid-cell-specific relationship between the mean soil water balance and the flooded area. DYPTOP combines the simulated inundation extent and its temporal persistency with criteria for the ecosystem water balance and the modelled peatland-specific soil carbon balance to predict the global distribution of peatlands. We apply DYPTOP in combination with the LPX-Bern DGVM and benchmark the global-scale distribution, extent, and seasonality of inundation against satellite data. DYPTOP successfully predicts the spatial distribution and extent of wetlands and major boreal and tropical peatland complexes and reveals the governing limitations to peatland occurrence across the globe. Peatlands covering large boreal lowlands are reproduced only when accounting for a positive feedback induced by the enhanced mean soil water holding capacity in peatland-dominated regions. DYPTOP is designed to minimize input data requirements, optimizes computational efficiency and allows for a modular adoption in Earth system models.
Resumo:
In the Bolivian Amazon several paleochannel generations are preserved. Their wide spectrum of morphologies clearly provides crucial information on the type and magnitude of geomorphic and hydrological changes within the drainage network of the Andean foreland. Therefore, in this study we mapped geomorphological characteristics of paleochannels, and applied radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating. Seven paleochannel generations are identified. Significant changes in sinuosity, channel widths and river pattern are observed for the successive paleochannel generations. Our results clearly reflect at least three different geomorphic and hydrological periods in the evolution of the fluvial system since the late Pleistocene. Changes in discharge and sediment load may be controlled by combinations of two interrelated mechanisms: (i) spatial changes and re-organizations of the drainage network in the upper catchment, and/or (ii) climate changes with their associated local to catchment-scale modifications in vegetation cover, and changes in discharge, inundation frequencies and magnitudes, which have likely affected the evolution of the fluvial system in the Llanos de Moxos. In summary, our study has revealed the enormous potential which geomorphic mapping and analysis combined with luminescence based chronologies hold for the reconstruction of the late Pleistocene to recent fluvial system in a large portion of Amazonia.
Resumo:
Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.
Resumo:
Magnitudes of peak discharges of 43 non-instrumentally measured Rhine river floods at Basel were reconstructed. The methodology is based on a range of different historic sources, containing flood information (including traditional urban inundation reference points from flood reports of medieval and early modern period chroniclers as well as 19th century journalists, flood marks, paintings and drawings, town maps, longitudinal and cross profiles etc.). These traditional pre-instrumental “flood information systems” still existed in the 19th century, when in 1808 the first instrumental hydrological measurements started. They thus could be calibrated with instrumental measurements in the 19th century overlapping period. The result is a 743 year long quantified Rhine river flood series. Floods of both periods (pre-instrumental as well as instrumental) can thus be directly compared for the very first time. The long-range consequences of rivers Kander and Aare deviations in 1714 and 1878 are reflected in a distinct change of magnitudes of peak discharges in Basel. A clear flood “disaster gap” appears in the 20th century. The lack of any extreme floods for such a long time is completely unique during the 743-year period of analysis. This result will influence the statistical assessment of once-in-a-century events, which might be of great interest for insurance campanies.
Resumo:
A wide variety of environmental records is necessary for analysing and understanding the complex Late Quaternary dynamics of permafrost-dominated Arctic landscapes. A NE Siberian periglacial key region was studied in detail using sediment records, remote sensing data, and terrain modelling, all incorporated in a geographical information system (GIS). The study area consists of the Bykovsky Peninsula and the adjacent Khorogor Valley in the Kharaulakh Ridge situated a few kilometres southeast of the Lena Delta. In this study a comprehensive cryolithological database containing information from 176 sites was compiled. The information from these sites is based on the review of previously published borehole data, outcrop profiles, surface samples, and our own field data. These archives cover depositional records of three periods: from Pliocene to Early Pleistocene, the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene. The main sediment sequences on the Bykovsky Peninsula consist of up to 50 m thick ice-rich permafrost deposits (Ice Complex) that were accumulated during the Late Pleistocene. They were formed as a result of nival processes around extensive snowfields in the Kharaulakh Ridge, slope processes in these mountains (such as in the Khorogor Valley), and alluvial/proluvial sedimentation in a flat accumulation plain dominated by polygonal tundra in the mountain foreland (Bykovsky Peninsula). During the early to middle Holocene warming, a general landscape transformation occurred from an extensive Late Pleistocene accumulation plain to a strongly thermokarst-dominated relief dissected by numerous depressions. Thermokarst subsidence had an enormous influence on the periglacial hydrological patterns, the sediment deposition, and on the composition and distribution of habitats. Climate deterioration, lake drainage, and talik refreezing occurred during the middle to late Holocene. The investigated region was reached by the post-glacial sea level rise during the middle Holocene, triggering thermo-abrasion of ice-rich coasts and the marine inundation of thermokarst depressions.
Resumo:
El presente estudio evalúa la evolución y los daños causados por la gran inundación del año 2001, en la provincia de Buenos Aires, ubicada en la principal región agrícola-ganadera de secano de la Argentina. El gobierno bonaerense estimó que las pérdidas económicas en el sector agropecuario alcanzaron cifras muy elevadas: U$S 700 millones. Pero la grave situación empezó a fines del año anterior cuando en noviembre, ya los suelos estaban con excesos de agua. Esto significa que su capacidad de absorción y almacenaje estaban en su límite y la napa freática estaba a muy poca profundidad. En 2001 se observaron dos ciclos de inundaciones, uno a principios y otro a fines de año.
Resumo:
Caracterizada por una verdadera maraña hidrográfica, las tierras entrerrianas presentan a mediados del siglo XX, rasgos productivos exclusivamente agro-pecuarios. La inundación de abril de 1959, considerada en la Argentina un "desastre nacional", deja bajo las aguas una extensión que supera los 20.000 km2. Desde Concordia hasta el delta y durante tres meses, la provincia observa un continuo manto hídrico sobre tierras ricamente productivas. Sorprendidos por la situación, los pobladores afectados buscan protección en las zonas altas y en ciudades cabeceras de Departamento. El gobierno nacional, provincial y los municipales diseñan estrategias de auxilio con el concurso espontáneamente solidario de la población. Aproximarnos a registros testimoniales escritos y orales, representativos de los que guarda aún la memoria colectiva, permite visualizar efectos socio-económicos producidos en el Departamento Gualeguaychú por la inundación del '59, evaluada en ese tiempo, la de mayor envergadura en la historia hidrográfica regional.
Resumo:
El presente estudio evalúa la evolución y los daños causados por la gran inundación del año 2001, en la provincia de Buenos Aires, ubicada en la principal región agrícola-ganadera de secano de la Argentina. El gobierno bonaerense estimó que las pérdidas económicas en el sector agropecuario alcanzaron cifras muy elevadas: U$S 700 millones. Pero la grave situación empezó a fines del año anterior cuando en noviembre, ya los suelos estaban con excesos de agua. Esto significa que su capacidad de absorción y almacenaje estaban en su límite y la napa freática estaba a muy poca profundidad. En 2001 se observaron dos ciclos de inundaciones, uno a principios y otro a fines de año.
Resumo:
Caracterizada por una verdadera maraña hidrográfica, las tierras entrerrianas presentan a mediados del siglo XX, rasgos productivos exclusivamente agro-pecuarios. La inundación de abril de 1959, considerada en la Argentina un "desastre nacional", deja bajo las aguas una extensión que supera los 20.000 km2. Desde Concordia hasta el delta y durante tres meses, la provincia observa un continuo manto hídrico sobre tierras ricamente productivas. Sorprendidos por la situación, los pobladores afectados buscan protección en las zonas altas y en ciudades cabeceras de Departamento. El gobierno nacional, provincial y los municipales diseñan estrategias de auxilio con el concurso espontáneamente solidario de la población. Aproximarnos a registros testimoniales escritos y orales, representativos de los que guarda aún la memoria colectiva, permite visualizar efectos socio-económicos producidos en el Departamento Gualeguaychú por la inundación del '59, evaluada en ese tiempo, la de mayor envergadura en la historia hidrográfica regional.
Resumo:
El presente estudio evalúa la evolución y los daños causados por la gran inundación del año 2001, en la provincia de Buenos Aires, ubicada en la principal región agrícola-ganadera de secano de la Argentina. El gobierno bonaerense estimó que las pérdidas económicas en el sector agropecuario alcanzaron cifras muy elevadas: U$S 700 millones. Pero la grave situación empezó a fines del año anterior cuando en noviembre, ya los suelos estaban con excesos de agua. Esto significa que su capacidad de absorción y almacenaje estaban en su límite y la napa freática estaba a muy poca profundidad. En 2001 se observaron dos ciclos de inundaciones, uno a principios y otro a fines de año.
Resumo:
Caracterizada por una verdadera maraña hidrográfica, las tierras entrerrianas presentan a mediados del siglo XX, rasgos productivos exclusivamente agro-pecuarios. La inundación de abril de 1959, considerada en la Argentina un "desastre nacional", deja bajo las aguas una extensión que supera los 20.000 km2. Desde Concordia hasta el delta y durante tres meses, la provincia observa un continuo manto hídrico sobre tierras ricamente productivas. Sorprendidos por la situación, los pobladores afectados buscan protección en las zonas altas y en ciudades cabeceras de Departamento. El gobierno nacional, provincial y los municipales diseñan estrategias de auxilio con el concurso espontáneamente solidario de la población. Aproximarnos a registros testimoniales escritos y orales, representativos de los que guarda aún la memoria colectiva, permite visualizar efectos socio-económicos producidos en el Departamento Gualeguaychú por la inundación del '59, evaluada en ese tiempo, la de mayor envergadura en la historia hidrográfica regional.
Resumo:
We present the data used to construct the Cenozoic and Cretaceous portion of the Phanerozoic curve of seawater 87Sr/86Sr that had been given in summary form by W.H. Burke co-workers. All Cenozoic samples (128) and 22 Cretaceous samples are foram-nannofossil oozes and limestones from DSDP cores distributed among 13 sites in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the Caribbean Sea. Non-DSDP Cretaceous samples (126) include limestone, anhydrite and phosphate samples from North America, Europe and Asia. Determination of the 87Sr/86Sr value of seawater at particular times in the past is based on comparison of ratios derived from coeval marine samples from widely separated geographic areas. These samples are characterized by a wide variety of diagenetic and burial histories. The large size and cosmopolitan nature of the data set decreases the likelihood that, among coeval data, systematic error has been introduced by a similar pattern of diagenetic alteration of the ratios. There is good clustering of data points throughout the Cenozoic and Cretaceous curve. The consistency of data is illustrated by Cenozoic and Cretaceous data plots that include a separate symbol for each DSDP site and non-DSDP sample location. More than 98% of the data points are enclosed by upper and lower lines that define a narrow band. For any given time, the correct seawater ratio probably lies within this band. A line drawn within the band represents our estimate of the actual seawater ratio as a function of time. The general configuration of the Cenozoic and Cretaceous curve appears to be strongly influenced by the history of plate interactions and sea-floor spreading. Specific rises and falls in the 87Sr/86Sr of seawater, however, may be caused by a variety of factors such as variation in lithologic composition of the crust exposed to weathering, configuration and topographic relief of continents, volcanic activity, rate of sea-floor spreading, extent of continental inundation by epeiric seas, and variations in both climate and paleooceanographic conditions. Many or all of these factors are probably related to global tectonic processes, yet their combined effect on the temporal variation of seawater 87Sr/86Sr can complicate a direct platetectonic interpretation for portions of the seawater curve.
Resumo:
The Baltic coast of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is located in the transition Zone between the region of Fennoscandian Uplift and the Central European Depression. In relation to the eustatic sea-level rise, the northeast coast shows a slower inundation, while for the southwestern area a faster transgression is indicated, which can be attributed to crustal movements. To determine the spatial and temporal differences since the onset of the Littorina Transgression, three relative sea-level curves have been established along a transect parallel to the gradient of upliftlsubsidence. The Wismar Bay area is one endpoint of the transect demonstrating today 10 Abb., 2 Tab. a relative sea-level rise of 1.4 mm/a. To determine the relative sea-level curve for the Wismar Bay, two sites were investigated on Rustwerder Spit (Poel) and Redentin. They provided reliable depth-age data, while the stratigraphy was additionally supported by lithological/geochemical, pollen, diatom and macrofossil data. Additional evidence was provided by archaeological submarine surveys and excavations. Comparing the new relative sea-level curve with a curve from the Vorpommern coast, it can be shown that for the period from 4000 cal BC until present, the differences between the two curves are caused by a constant neotectonic movement, while for the older periods an increasing isostatic component must be taken into account.
