Whole-body MRI of multiple myeloma: comparison of different MRI sequences in assessment of different growth patterns

PURPOSE: To determine sensitivity, specificity and inter-observer variability of different whole-body MRI (WB-MRI) sequences in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). METHODS AND MATERIALS: WB-MRI using a 1.5T MRI scanner was performed in 23 consecutive patients (13 males, 10 females; mean age 63+/-12 years) with histologically proven MM. All patients were clinically classified according to infiltration (low-grade, n=7; intermediate-grade, n=7; high-grade, n=9) and to the staging system of Durie and Salmon PLUS (stage I, n=12; stage II, n=4; stage III, n=7). The control group consisted of 36 individuals without malignancy (25 males, 11 females; mean age 57+/-13 years). Two observers independently evaluated the following WB-MRI sequences: T1w-TSE (T1), T2w-TIRM (T2), and the combination of both sequences, including a contrast-enhanced T1w-TSE with fat-saturation (T1+/-CE/T2). They had to determine growth patterns (focal and/or diffuse) and the MRI sequence that provided the highest confidence level in depicting the MM lesions. Results were calculated on a per-patient basis. RESULTS: Visual detection of MM was as follows: T1, 65% (sensitivity)/85% (specificity); T2, 76%/81%; T1+/-CE/T2, 67%/88%. Inter-observer variability was as follows: T1, 0.3; T2, 0.55; T1+/-CE/T2, 0.55. Sensitivity improved depending on infiltration grade (T1: 1=60%; 2=36%; 3=83%; T2: 1=70%; 2=71%; 3=89%; T1+/-CE/T2: 1=50%; 2=50%; 3=89%) and clinical stage (T1: 1=58%; 2=63%; 3=79%; T2: 1=58%; 2=88%; 3=100%; T1+/-CE/T2: 1=50%; 2=63%; 3=100%). T2w-TIRM sequences achieved the best reliability in depicting the MM lesions (65% in the mean of both readers). CONCLUSIONS: T2w-TIRM sequences achieved the highest level of sensitivity and best reliability, and thus might be valuable for initial assessment of MM. For an exact staging and grading the examination protocol should encompass unenhanced and enhanced T1w-MRI sequences, in addition to T2w-TIRM.

Protecting Tropical Forests through Public Procurement of Emission Reductions

The rate of destruction of tropical forests continues to accelerate at an alarming rate contributing to an important fraction of overall greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, much hope has been vested in the emerging REDD+ framework under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which aims at creating an international incentive system to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. This paper argues that in the absence of an international consensus on the design of results-based payments, “bottom-up” initiatives should take the lead and explore new avenues. It suggests that a call for tender for REDD+ credits might both assist in leveraging private investments and spending scarce public funds in a cost-efficient manner. The paper discusses the pros and cons of results-based approaches, provides an overview of the goals and principles that govern public procurement and discusses their relevance for the purchase of REDD+ credits, in particular within the ambit of the European Union.

Legal Aspects of Sino-­African Tied Aid: The Art of Playing with a Legal Grey Area

Sino-African trade has seen a fifty-fold increase in the years 1999 to 2008. In some African regions, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, China has even replaced the US as the most important trading partner today. But China holds not a single FTA on the African continent, while other major trading partners of African economies rely on an extensive framework of different trade agreements. What is, thus, the legal basis of the recent increase of Sino-African trade? Interestingly, Sino-African trade has seen a particularly strong increase in countries that have entered into tied aid agreements with China. These agreements are commonly known under the term ‘Angola-Model’ and consist of a multifaceted network of barter-trading-systems, aspects of tied aid and concessions for oil and other commodities linked with a state loan. It is likely that these agreements have an impact on the trade-flows between African countries and China. This paper discusses the legal character of this new form of economic cooperation, or modern version of tied aid. Critical legal aspects related to this form of tied aid refer to violation of the principle of most-favoured nation (MFN), illegitimate export subsidies, market access, public procurement and transparency in the international trading system. However, despite the recent outcry of the foremost Western community against the strategy of the Chinese government on the African continent, the practice of the Angola-Model based tied aid is not entirely new, and neither is it against the law. The case of tied aid is situated in a legal grey area that should be examined thoroughly in order to strengthen the international trading system and to support developing countries in their attempt to gain from tied aid arrangements.

Anterior fixation of unstable pelvic ring fractures using the modified Stoppa approach: mid-term results are independent on patients' age

PURPOSE Open surgical management of unstable pelvic ring injuries has been discussed controversially compared to percutaneous techniques in terms of surgical site morbidity especially in older patients. Thus, we assessed the impact of age on the outcome following fixation of unstable pelvic ring injuries through the modified Stoppa approach. METHODS Out of a consecutive series of 92 patients eligible for the study, 63 patients (mean age 50 years, range 19-78) were evaluated [accuracy of reduction, complications, failures, Majeed-Score, Oswestry Disability Questionnaire (ODI), Mainz Pain Staging System (MPSS)] at a mean follow-up of 3.3 years (range 1.0-7.9). Logistic multivariate regression analysis was performed to assess the outcome in relation to increasing patient age and/or Injury Severity Score (ISS). RESULTS Out of 63 patients, in 36 an "anatomic" reduction was achieved. Ten postoperative complications occurred in eight patients. In five patients, failure of fixation was noted at the anterior and/or posterior pelvic ring. In 49 patients, an "excellent" or "good" Majeed-Score was obtained; the mean ODI was 14 % (range 0-76 %); 50 patients reported either no or only minor chronic pelvic pain (MPSS). Only an increasing ISS conferred an increased likelihood of the occurrence of a non-anatomical reduction, a "poor" or "fair" Majeed-Score, or an ODI >20 %. CONCLUSIONS Increasing age did not impact the analysed parameters. Open reduction and internal fixation of the anterior pelvic ring through a modified Stoppa approach in unstable pelvic ring injuries did not result in an unfavourable outcome with increasing age of patients.

Treatment allocation in hepatocellular carcinoma: Assessment of the BCLC algorithm

BACKGROUND AND AIMS The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system is the algorithm most widely used to manage patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to investigate the extent to which the BCLC recommendations effectively guide clinical practice and assess the reasons for any deviation from the recommendations. MATERIAL AND METHODS The first-line treatments assigned to patients included in the prospective Bern HCC cohort were analyzed. RESULTS Among 223 patients included in the cohort, 116 were not treated according to the BCLC algorithm. Eighty percent of the patients in BCLC stage 0 (very early HCC) and 60% of the patients in BCLC stage A (early HCC) received recommended curative treatment. Only 29% of the BCLC stage B patients (intermediate HCC) and 33% of the BCLC stage C patients (advanced HCC) were treated according to the algorithm. Eighty-nine percent of the BCLC stage D patients (terminal HCC) were treated with best supportive care, as recommended. In 98 patients (44%) the performance status was disregarded in the stage assignment. CONCLUSION The management of HCC in clinical practice frequently deviates from the BCLC recommendations. Most of the curative therapy options, which have well-defined selection criteria, were allocated according to the recommendations, while the majority of the palliative therapy options were assigned to patients with tumor stages not aligned with the recommendations. The only parameter which is subjective in the algorithm, the performance status, is also the least respected.

Did Impending War in Europe Help Destroy the Gold Bloc in 1936? An Internal Inconsistency Hypothesis

This paper investigates the gold bloc operated between France, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Belgium, especially over the period after the USA left the gold standard in March 1933 to its end in September 1936. It enquires into the effect of military-political developments in Germany and Italy on the sustainability of the gold bloc between its members. Juxtaposed is the view of leading political scientists, such as Henry Kissinger, who see impending war in Europe as deeply and adversely affecting psychology in Europe, and what may be called the standard "economists' view" that sees the demise of the gold bloc as being caused almost exclusively by economic factors. Developing concepts of external and internal inconsistency of the gold bloc, this investigation concludes that both economic and military-political developments played important roles in destroying the last vestiges of the gold standard.

Analysis of prognostic factors for the development of metastases and survival in renal cell carcinoma patients

Introduction and objective. A number of prognostic factors have been reported for predicting survival in patients with renal cell carcinoma. Yet few studies have analyzed the effects of those factors at different stages of the disease process. In this study, different stages of disease progression starting from nephrectomy to metastasis, from metastasis to death, and from evaluation to death were evaluated. ^ Methods. In this retrospective follow-up study, records of 97 deceased renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients were reviewed between September 2006 to October 2006. Patients with TNM Stage IV disease before nephrectomy or with cancer diagnoses other than RCC were excluded leaving 64 records for analysis. Patient TNM staging, Furhman Grade, age, tumor size, tumor volume, histology and patient gender were analyzed in relation to time to metastases. Time from nephrectomy to metastasis, TNM staging, Furhman Grade, age, tumor size, tumor volume, histology and patient gender were tested for significance in relation to time from metastases to death. Finally, analysis of laboratory values at time of evaluation, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG), UCLA Integrated Staging System (UISS), time from nephrectomy to metastasis, TNM staging, Furhman Grade, age, tumor size, tumor volume, histology and patient gender were tested for significance in relation to time from evaluation to death. Linear regression and Cox Proportional Hazard (univariate and multivariate) was used for testing significance. Kaplan-Meier Log-Rank test was used to detect any significance between groups at various endpoints. ^ Results. Compared to negative lymph nodes at time of nephrectomy, a single positive lymph node had significantly shorter time to metastasis (p<0.0001). Compared to other histological types, clear cell histology had significant metastasis free survival (p=0.003). Clear cell histology compared to other types (p=0.0002 univariate, p=0.038 multivariate) and time to metastasis with log conversion (p=0.028) significantly affected time from metastasis to death. A greater than one year and greater than two year metastasis free interval, compared to patients that had metastasis before one and two years, had statistically significant survival benefit (p=0.004 and p=0.0318). Time from evaluation to death was affected by greater than one year metastasis free interval (p=0.0459), alcohol consumption (p=0.044), LDH (p=0.006), ECOG performance status (p<0.001), and hemoglobin level (p=0.0092). The UISS risk stratified the patient population in a statistically significant manner for survival (p=0.001). No other factors were found to be significant. ^ Conclusion. Clear cell histology is predictive for both time to metastasis and metastasis to death. Nodal status at time of nephrectomy may predict risk of metastasis. The time interval to metastasis significantly predicts time from metastasis to death and time from evaluation to death. ECOG performance status, and hemoglobin levels predicts survival outcome at evaluation. Finally, UISS appropriately stratifies risk in our population. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Factors associated with HPV16 status and survival among patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx

Background: Squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx (SCCOP) is characterized by local tumor aggressiveness, high recurrence rates, a high incidence of second primary tumors, and medical comorbidities. Significant trends in demographic and clinical characteristics as well as survival among SCCOP patients have been observed over time, likely owing to the changing etiology of the disease. Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) infection is associated with a significant proportion of these cancers. Biomarkers that may aid in identifying patients that are at higher risk of recurrence and death are important so that these patients may be followed more closely to improve their quality of life. ^ Study population and methods: The retrospective review (Specific Aim 2) included 3891 newly diagnosed, previously untreated patients presenting to our institution between 1955 and 2004. A total of 2299 patients treated at our institution were included in survival and recursive partitioning analysis. The prospective cohort study (Specific Aim 3) included 266 patients presenting to our institution between January 2006 and September 2009. ^ Results: The results from the retrospective review showed that over time, patients presented at younger ages and were more likely to have base of tongue/tonsil tumors and to be never/former smokers and moreover survival improved significantly over time. In survival and recursive partitioning analyses, the TNM staging system was efficient in prognosticating patients prior to 1995. However, in the recent decade, the TNM staging system was completely inadequate. The factors having the greatest positive effect on overall survival since 1995 were those common to HPV-associated SCCOP. The results from the prospective cohort study indicate that patients with high nodal stage and those with late stage disease have increased levels of pretreatment serum HPV DNA. ^ Conclusions: We saw a distinct improvement in survival among SCCOP patients over the past 50 years at our institution. The main factors contributing to this were changes in clinical characteristics, in particular surrogates for HPV status. The current TNM staging system for SCCOP is inadequate and incorporation of HPV status (and perhaps smoking status) is encouraged. Furthermore, although pretreatment circulating levels of HPV DNA was associated with higher N category and overall disease stage, it has limited utility as a marker for recurrence among SCCOP patients.^

The Cuban Economy: A Current Evaluation and Proposals for Necessary Policy Changes

Politicians, social scientists and general readers have noted in both Cuban and international academic forums and periodicals that the well-being enjoyed by the Cuban people in the 1980s has been seriously compromised since the economic crisis of the 1990s. Even for the most skeptical of observers it is clear that this worsening of conditions can be attributed not only to external factors, such as the breakup of the international socialist system, the tightening of the US blockade, and the worldwide economic crisis suffered by underdeveloped countries, but also to internal factors that have kept the country from taking full advantage of the human and material potential available on the island. Although Cuba is currently experiencing an economic recovery from the collapse in GDP in the mid 1990s following the collapse of its ties with the Socialist Bloc, it continues to maintain high import coefficients due to longstanding structural.

Validation of a new easy score to predict outcome in early stage renal cell carcinoma

Background e scopi dello studio. Il carcinoma renale rappresenta circa il 3% delle neoplasie e la sua incidenza è in aumento nel mondo. Il principale approccio terapeutico alla malattia in stadio precoce è rappresentato dalla chirurgia (nefrectomia parziale o radicale), sebbene circa il 30-40% dei pazienti vada incontro a recidiva di malattia dopo tale trattamento. La probabilità di recidivare può essere stimata per mezzo di alcuni noti modelli prognostici sviluppati integrando sia parametri clinici che anatomo-patologici. Il limite principale all’impiego nella pratica clinica di questi modelli è legata alla loro complessità di calcolo che li rende di difficile fruizione. Inoltre la stratificazione prognostica dei pazienti in questo ambito ha un ruolo rilevante nella pianificazione ed interpretazione dei risultati degli studi di terapia adiuvante dopo il trattamento chirurgico del carcinoma renale in stadio iniziale. Da un' analisi non pre-pianificata condotta nell’ambito di uno studio prospettico e randomizzato multicentrico italiano di recente pubblicazione, è stato sviluppato un nuovo modello predittivo e prognostico (“score”) che utilizza quattro semplici parametri: l’età del paziente, il grading istologico, lo stadio patologico del tumore (pT) e della componente linfonodale (pN). Lo scopo del presente studio era quello di validare esternamente tale score. Pazienti e Metodi. La validazione è stata condotta su due coorti retrospettive italiane (141 e 246 pazienti) e su una prospettica americana (1943 pazienti). Lo score testato prevedeva il confronto tra due gruppi di pazienti, uno a prognosi favorevole (pazienti con almeno due parametri positivi tra i seguenti: età < 60 anni, pT1-T3a, pN0, grading 1-2) e uno a prognosi sfavorevole (pazienti con meno di due fattori positivi). La statistica descrittiva è stata utilizzata per mostrare la distribuzione dei diversi parametri. Le analisi di sopravvivenza [recurrence free survival (RFS) e overall survival (OS)] sono state eseguite il metodo di Kaplan-Meier e le comparazioni tra i vari gruppi di pazienti sono state condotte utilizzando il Mantel-Haenszel log-rank test e il modello di regressione di Cox. Il metodo di Greenwood è stato utilizzato per stimare la varianza e la costruzione degli intervalli di confidenza al 95% (95% CI), la “C-statistic” è stata utilizzata per descrivere l’ accuratezza dello score. Risultati. I risultati della validazione dello score condotta sulle due casistiche retrospettive italiane, seppur non mostrando una differenza statisticamente significativa tra i due gruppi di pazienti (gruppo favorevole versus sfavorevole), sono stati ritenuti incoraggianti e meritevoli di ulteriore validazione sulla casistica prospettica americana. Lo score ha dimostrato di performare bene sia nel determinare la prognosi in termini di RFS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.85, 95% CI 1.57-2.17, p < 0.001] che di OS [HR 2.58, 95% CI 1.98-3.35, p < 0.001]. Inoltre in questa casistica lo score ha realizzato risultati sovrapponibili a quelli dello University of California Los Angeles Integrated Staging System. Conclusioni. Questo nuovo e semplice score ha dimostrato la sua validità in altre casistiche, sia retrospettive che prospettiche, in termini di impatto prognostico su RFS e OS. Ulteriori validazioni su casistiche internazionali sono in corso per confermare i risultati qui presentati e per testare l’eventuale ruolo predittivo di questo nuovo score.

Global and regional financial safety nets: lessons from Europe and Asia. Bruegel Working Paper 2013/06 [07?], November 2013

The Asian financial crisis (1997) and the European crisis (2009) have both contributed to the development and deepening of regional safety net arrangements. This paper analyses the relationships between global and regional financial safety nets, and uncovers the potential tensions and operational challenges associated with the involvement of several institutional players with potentially different interests, analytical biases and governance. The G20 has acknowledged the importance of these new players for the international monetary system, but the principles for cooperation between the IMF and regional financing arrangements are far too broad and ad hoc to contribute to a coherent and effective architecture. This paper tries to establish some lessons learned from the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the current European crisis in order to enhance the effectiveness, efficiency, equity and governance of these arrangements. In particular, it proposes changes to the IMF articles of agreement to allow for lending or guarantees to regional arrangements directly and it establishes some key desirable features and practices of regional mechanisms that should be adopted everywhere to ensure some global consistency, particularly in the field of macroeconomic surveillance, programme design and conditionality.

Europe on the Road to the Third Stage of EMU: Recent Evidence. CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 07.2, 1996

The paper deals with Europe's effort to proceed to the thud stage of EMU and establish a common currency. It is argued that the success of the common currency experiment will greatly depend on the fulfillment of the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) criteria, on the adoption of the proper adjustment policies as well as on the political desirability of the project. The paper is organized as follows: Section 1 deals briefly with the index of criteria that define an OCA. Section 2 examines the extent to which Europe experiences common demand disturbances, while sections 3 and 4 focus on evidence about the mobility of factors of production across Europe, namely labor and capital. Section 5 examines the possibility of an increase in trade volume across the EU under fixed exchange rates or a common currency regime. Section 6 sheds light on the possibility of the EURO (the ex-ECU} to become a vehicle currency in the international financial system, and Section 7 is concerned with the benefits and costs of the establishment of a European Central Bank (ECB), paying special attention to seigniorage revenues. Section 8 deals with the necessity of establishing an EU federal mechanism facilitating adjustment. Section 9 sketches out a proper role for a hegemonic power in a common currency regime. Finally, section 10 examines EMU prospects during the transitional period. The paper closes with some concluding remarks, where the role of politics and coordination of economic policies are particularly emphasized as of cardinal importance on the road to the third stage of EMU.

Carbon credit trading in Brazil: an overview of a new business sector

This article discusses the Carbon Credit Trading Market in Brazil and opportunities for technological development and innovation related. The international trade in carbon credits becomes a source of opportunities for developing countries because of the Clean Development Mechanism. Committed to reduce polluting levels from 2008 to 2012, and ahead, industrialized countries started to seek ecological solutions internally or compensatory actions such as buying carbon credits from low-emission countries. This strategy brought up a brand-new industrial sector that still requires productive structures and a solid international commercialization system. This is a qualitative study, based on documentary research, referring to the Brazilian territory. The data obtained point out a set of efforts such as researching and developing products and processes environment friendly. Other findings indicate opportunities to expand Green Economy Sector through supporting a set of newborn firms such as waste management and recycling, in addition to other actions that reinforce sustainable development opportunities to the country and, at the end, to the world.

Herman Chinery-Hesse:the Bill Gates of Ghana?

Herman Chinery-Hesse considers his plans for a new venture, a virtual mall that would enable African producers to sell their products worldwide through a new international payment system based on mobile phones and pre-paid scratch cards. In 2010, his operating company, Black Star Lines (BSL) Ghana Ltd is considering plans to launch shopAfrica53.com, and associated payment and distribution services in Ghana and the UK. This case teaches new approaches to poverty reduction through the realisation of entrepreneurial opportunities at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) and is suitable for courses on social enterprise, entrepreneurship in general, and development studies seeking to incorporate more private sector approaches. It can also be adapted for courses such as international strategy or technology business.