Dynamic Relational Contracts under Complete Information

This paper considers a long-term relationship between two agents who both undertake a costly action or investment that together produces a joint benefit. Agents have an opportunity to expropriate some of the joint benefit for their own use. Two cases are considered: (i) where agents are risk neutral and are subject to limited liability constraints and (ii) where agents are risk averse, have quasi-linear preferences in consumption and actions but where limited liability constraints do not bind. The question asked is how to structure the investments and division of the surplus over time so as to avoid expropriation. In the risk-neutral case, there may be an initial phase in which one agent overinvests and the other underinvests. However, both actions and surplus converge monotonically to a stationary state in which there is no overinvestment and surplus is at its maximum subject to the constraints. In the risk-averse case, there is no overinvestment. For this case, we establish that dynamics may or may not be monotonic depending on whether or not it is possible to sustain a first-best allocation. If the first-best allocation is not sustainable, then there is a trade-off between risk sharing and surplus maximization. In general, surplus will not be at its constrained maximum even in the long run.

Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: Example in Swiss Alps

Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Withdrawal, "serosorting" and "strategic positioning": use of risk reduction strategies with casual sex partners in men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, 2007

Introduction: 1) Withdrawal before ejaculation, "serosorting" (to choose a partner of same serostatus) and "strategic positioning" (only insertive vs. only receptive role in anal sex according to serostatus) are known to be used by MSM as alternatives to condom use. 2) Despite their questionable levels of effectiveness they are collectively labelled as "risk reduction strategies" (RRS). Objectives: The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence and factors related to RRS in men who report unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with occasional partners in the last 12 months. Methods: 1) In 2007, a module on RRS was included in a repeated national survey conducted among readers of gay newspapers, members of gay organizations and visitors of gay websites (N=2953). 2) Using an anonymous self-completed questionnaire, participants were asked whether, with the aim of avoiding HIV infection, RRS were used with occasional partners. Analysis: 1) Prevalences were calculated in participants who reported UAI with occasional partners in the last 12 months (n=416). 2) A logistic regression was performed, using "at least one RRS" as dependent variable. Number of partners in the last 12 months, HIV-status and usual socio-demographic characteristics were used as independent factors. Result : 1) 70% (292/416) of the participants reporting UAI used at least one RRS when they had unprotected sex with casual partners in the last 12 months (Table 1). 2) Withrawal before ejaculation was the most frequently reported strategy, followed by serosorting and strategic positioning (Table 1). 3) Participants who reported at least one RRS were more likely to be over 30 years and to belong to a gay organisation. HIV-positive and non-tested participants were less likely to report RRS than HIV-negative participants (Table 2). Conclusions: 1) The majority of MSM who reported UAI in the last 12 months tried to reduce risk of HIV transmission by using specific strategies (withdrawal, serosorting, strategic positioning). It is not known, however, to what extent the use of these strategies was systematic. 2) It is necessary to provide MSM with balanced information on these strategies and their respective level of effectiveness. 3) It is important to monitor the use of RRS in HIV behavioural surveillance surveys in MSM.

Bacillus thuringiensis: fermentation process and risk assessment: a short review

Several factors make the local production of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) highly appropriate for pest control in developing nations. Bt can be cheaply produced on a wide variety of low cost, organic substrates. Local production results in considerable savings in hard currency which otherwise would be spent on importation of chemical and biological insecticides. The use of Bt in Brazil has been limited in comparison with chemical insecticides. Although Bt is imported, some Brazilian researchers have been working on its development and production. Fermentation processes (submerged and semi-solid) were applied, using by-products from agro-industries. As the semi-solid fermentation process demonstrated to be interesting for Bt endotoxins production, it could be adopted for small scale local production. Although promising results had been achieved, national products have not been registered due to the absence of a specific legislation for biological products. Effective actions are being developed in order to solve this gap. Regardless of the biocontrol agents being considered atoxic and harmless to the environment, information related to direct and indirect effects of microbials are still insufficient in many cases. The risk analysis of the use of microbial control agents is of upmost importance nowadays, and is also discussed.

Work, risk and health: differences between immigrants and natives in Spain

We analyze the impact of working and contractual conditions, particularly exposure to job risks, on the probability of acquiring a disability. We postulate a model in which this impact is mediated by the choice of occupation, with a level of risk associated to it. We assume this choice is endogenous, and that it depends on preferences and opportunities in the labour market, both of which may differ between immigrants and natives. To test this hypothesis we use data from the Continuous Sample of Working Lives of the Spanish SS system. It contains individual, job and firm information of over a million workers, including a representative sample of immigrants. We find that risk exposure increases the probability of permanent disability by 5.3%; temporary employment also influences health. Migrant status -with differences among regions of origin- significantly affects both disability and the probability of being employed in a risky occupation. Most groups of immigrants work in riskier jobs, but have lower probability of becoming disabled. Nevertheless, our theoretical hypothesis that disability and risk are jointly determined is not valid for immigrants: i.e. for them working conditions is not a matter of choice in terms of health.

Risk of death due to chronic chagasic cardiopathy

In this longitudinal study 5,710 people were included. The inclusion criteria were two positive serological results for Trypanosoma cruzi infection, 15 and 50 years old and no other demostrable diesease at the time of study. In the five year follow up 1,117 patients were lost. The follow up involved yearly evaluation of serology, clinical examination, X-ray of torax, and ECG, for 4,593 patients and 263 were contacted at home because they did not assist for their clinical consultant. Time average of follow up was 5.3 years. Eighty nine (1.5%) of the 4,593 patients died during the follow-up period, 63 (71%) by cardiac insufiency (CI) and 26 (29%) by severe ventricular arrithmias. Diagnosis of cardiomegaly was present in all the patients with diagnosis of CI and in 15 (5%) of the patients with diagnosis of arrithmias.The ECG alterations of these pacients show 61 right bundle brunch block (RBBB), associated or not with left anterior hemiblock (LAHB), 47 pathological Q wave and 70 primary repolarization alterations; 61 had polyfocal ventricular arrithmia. The death rate was similar in the sexes and was more frequent between 40 and 50 years of age. Information on 1,380 recuperated patients shows that 15 died with no previous symptoms and without medical assistance and were interpretate as sudden death. The latest ECG in three follow-up of these pacients indicates (before death) that only one had normal study and 14 presented 12 RBBB; 9 LAHB; 7 isolated ventricular arrithmia; 10 repolariz alterations; 2 patological Q wave, 10 patients of them with RBBB and repolariz alterations. In all the cases we had people between 35 and 43 years old, 9 men and 6 women. This study shows that in Chagas disease is possible to differenciate two risk groups. A low risk death group that have normal ECG and clinical evaluation during the follow up, and a high risk group associate ECG with RBBB and primary alterations of repolarization and/or inactivation zones with not anual clinical evaluation.

Predictors of HIV-protection behaviour in HIV-positive men who have sex with casual male partners: a test of the explanatory power of an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills model.

This prospective study applies an extended Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills (IMB) model to establish predictors of HIV-protection behaviour among HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) during sex with casual partners. Data have been collected from anonymous, self-administered questionnaires and analysed by using descriptive and backward elimination regression analyses. In a sample of 165 HIV-positive MSM, 82 participants between the ages of 23 and 78 (M=46.4, SD=9.0) had sex with casual partners during the three-month period under investigation. About 62% (n=51) have always used a condom when having sex with casual partners. From the original IMB model, only subjective norm predicted condom use. More important predictors that increased condom use were low consumption of psychotropics, high satisfaction with sexuality, numerous changes in sexual behaviour after diagnosis, low social support from friends, alcohol use before sex and habitualised condom use with casual partner(s). The explanatory power of the calculated regression model was 49% (p<0.001). The study reveals the importance of personal and social resources and of routines for condom use, and provides information for the research-based conceptualisation of prevention offers addressing especially people living with HIV ("positive prevention").

Bone mineral density (BMD), micro-architecture estimation (TBS) and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) extracted from a single DXA device in combination with clinical risk factors improve significantly the identification of women at high risk of fracture

Introduction: Osteoporosis (OP) is a systemic skeletal disease characterized by a low bone mineral density (BMD) and a micro-architectural (MA) deterioration. Clinical risk factors (CRF) are often used as a MA approximation. MA is yet evaluable in daily practice by the Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) measure. TBS is a novel grey-level texture measurement reflecting bone micro-architecture based on the use of experimental variograms of 2D projection images. TBS is very simple to obtain, by reanalyzing a lumbar DXA-scan. TBS has proven to have diagnosis and prognosis value, partially independent of CRF and BMD. The aim of the OsteoLaus cohort is to combine in daily practice the CRF and the information given by DXA (BMD, TBS and vertebral fracture assessment (VFA)) to better identify women at high fracture risk. Method: The OsteoLaus cohort (1400 women 50 to 80 years living in Lausanne, Switzerland) started in 2010. This study is derived from the cohort COLAUS who started in Lausanne in 2003. The main goals of COLAUS is to obtain information on the epidemiology and genetic determinants of cardiovascular risk in 6700 men and women. CRF for OP, bone ultrasound of the heel, lumbar spine and hip BMD, VFA by DXA and MA evaluation by TBS are recorded in OsteoLaus. Preliminary results are reported. Results: We included 631 women: mean age 67.4±6.7 y, BMI 26.1±4.6, mean lumbar spine BMD 0.943±0.168 (T-score -1.4 SD), TBS 1.271±0.103. As expected, correlation between BMD and site matched TBS is low (r2=0.16). Prevalence of VFx grade 2/3, major OP Fx and all OP Fx is 8.4%, 17.0% and 26.0% respectively. Age- and BMI-adjusted ORs (per SD decrease) are 1.8 (1.2- 2.5), 1.6 (1.2-2.1), 1.3 (1.1-1.6) for BMD for the different categories of fractures and 2.0 (1.4-3.0), 1.9 (1.4-2.5), 1.4 (1.1-1.7) for TBS respectively. Only 32 to 37% of women with OP Fx have a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200. If we combine a BMD < -2.5 SD or a TBS < 1.200, 54 to 60% of women with an osteoporotic Fx are identified. Conclusion: As in the already published studies, these preliminary results confirm the partial independence between BMD and TBS. More importantly, a combination of TBS subsequent to BMD increases significantly the identification of women with prevalent OP Fx which would have been miss-classified by BMD alone. For the first time we are able to have complementary information about fracture (VFA), density (BMD), micro- and macro architecture (TBS & HAS) from a simple, low ionizing radiation and cheap device: DXA. Such complementary information is very useful for the patient in the daily practice and moreover will likely have an impact on cost effectiveness analysis.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Reducing the Risk: A Strategic Approach - The Report of the Task Force on Sudden Cardiac Death

The Minister for Health and Children established the Task Force on Sudden Cardiac Death (SCD) in the Autumn of 2004, with the following terms of reference:1) Define SCD and describe its incidence and underlying causes in Ireland.2) Advise on the detection and assessment of those at high risk of SCD and their relatives.3) Advise on the systematic assessment of those engaged in sports and exercise for risk of SCD.4) Advise on maximizing access to basic life support (BLS) and automated external defibrillators (AEDs) and on:- appropriate levels of training in BLS and use of AEDs, and on the maintenance of that training- priority individuals and priority groups for such training- geographic areas and functional locations of greatest need- best practice models of first responder scheme and public access defibrillation, and- integration of such training services.5) Advise on the establishment and maintenance of surveillance systems, including a registry of SCD and information systems to monitor risk assessment, and training and equipment programmes.6) Advise and make recommendations on other priority issues relevant to SCD in Ireland.7) Outline a plan for implementation and advise on monitoring the implementation of recommendations made in the Task Force’s report. In undertaking its work the Task Force was mindful of national health policy, relevant national strategies and of the recently reformed structures for health service delivery in Ireland. Read the Report (PDF, 1.66mb)

Improving care for people with long term conditions: 'at a glance' information sheets for healthcare professionals

The Department has produced a series of information sheets for doctors,nurses, those delivering personal health budgets, allied health professionals, health trainers and anyone supporting individuals with long term conditions. The information sheets cover a range of topics including care planning, care co-ordination, managing need and assessment of risk, motivating people to self care, goal setting and action planning and end of life care.Download information sheet 1: Personalised care planning (PDF, 2514K)Download information sheet 2: Personalised care planning diagram (PDF, 2213K)Download information sheet 3: Care co-ordination (PDF, 1967K.

Hepatitis C: could I be at risk? (English and 6 translations)

This leaflet provides information onHepatitis C- how the virusis spread,the symptoms of the virus and treatment available.

PHA urges parents to get 'at risk' children vaccinated against seasonal flu

The Public Health Agency is urging Northern Ireland parents to make sure children in 'at risk' groups get their flu vaccine early.The message has been issued to parents and carers of children as the PHA's seasonal flu vaccination programme gets underway for 2011/12.It is very important that children with any condition that puts them more at risk of the complications of flu get the vaccine.These 'at risk' conditions include:chronic lung conditions such as asthma;chest infections that have required hospital admission;chronic heart conditions;chronic liver disease;chronic kidney disease;diabetes;lowered immunity due to disease or treatment such as steroids or cancer therapy;chronic neurological conditions such as stroke, multiple sclerosis or a condition that affects the nervous system, such as cerebral palsy;hereditary and degenerative diseases of the central nervous system or muscles.Children who attend special schools for severe learning or physical disabilities are considered to be particularly at risk, as well as those with other complex health needs.The PHA has written to principals of local special schools, as well as parents of children at these schools, to raise awareness of the importance of getting vaccinated early.Dr Richard Smithson, PHA Flu Vaccination Lead, said: "For many people, flu is a short, unpleasant illness, but it does not usually cause any serious problems. However, for others, it can have very serious complications including, in rare cases, being fatal."We have been particularly reminded over the last two winters that children with chronic neurological problems and other complex health needs are very vulnerable to these complications. We have seen children become very seriously ill and, tragically, there have even been a few deaths in children who attend special schools."For this reason, we recommend that all children who attend special schools for severe learning disability, and special schools for physical disability, are offered the flu vaccine early in the autumn, before the flu viruses start circulating."The vaccine is now available from GP surgeries and the PHA recommends that parents check arrangements with their own GP's surgery so that their child can get the jab.The earlier you get vaccinated the better, as it takes the body about 10-14 days after the jab to develop antibodies. These will then protect you against the same or similar viruses if the body is exposed to them. The vaccine contains three strains of the flu virus, which are considered the most likely to be circulating this winter, including the H1N1 (swine flu) virus."Your child needs to get the flu jab every year - the protection it gives only lasts for one winter, so even if they got it last year, they still need to get it this year," added Dr Smithson."Also, if your child has been diagnosed with flu or swine flu in the past couple of years, they will still need the jab this year as there are different types of flu that the jab will protect against. Getting the flu jab is the best way to protect your child against flu and we would strongly recommend that you arrange for them to have it."Although the vaccine gives good protection, no vaccine gives total protection, so if your child develops flu-like symptoms (such as fever, cough, aches and pains, and sore throat) you should contact your GP for advice. If your child has any of these symptoms, they should be kept at home until they feel better."For more information on seasonal flu, go to www.fluawareni.info and follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

Fish pedicures: Information for the Public

Although the risk of catching an infection as a result of a fish spa pedicure is likely to be very low, it cannot be completely excluded. However, there are certain things you can do to further reduce your risk of catching or spreading an infection when having one of these treatments.Choosing a salonUse your personal judgment: as with all beauty salons, if it looks unsanitary, do not go there for your treatment. If you are very concerned about the cleanliness of a salon you visit, you can report this to your local Environmental Health department, who will be able to perform an inspection of the premises.When having a treatment, a trained member of staff should perform an inspection of your feet both beforehand, to check for any broken skin / infections, and afterwards, to check for signs of bleeding. They should also ask you to wash your feet with soap and water before putting them in the tank, to make sure that any products you have used that could be harmful to the fish are washed away, and to reduce the risk of spreading any infection.Ask your therapist what other procedures the salon has in place to minimise the risk of infection. The Health Protection Agency, England has produced a set of guidelines for salons which, if followed, will ensure any potential risk of infection is kept to an absolute minimum.Before having the treatment The HPA has identified a number of health conditions or prior treatments which may mean that you should not have a fish pedicure. These are:Leg waxing or shaving in last 24 hoursAny open cuts/wounds/abrasions/broken skin on the feet or lower legsInfection on the feet (including athlete's foot, verruca)Psoriasis, eczema or dermatitis affecting the feet or lower legsDiabetes (increased risk of infection)Infection with a blood borne virus such as Hepatitis B or Hepatitis C or HIVAny immune deficiency due to illness or medicationBleeding disorders or on anticoagulant medication (e.g. heparin or warfarinMore information and advice on fish spa pedicures and the full set of guidance can be found on the Health Protection website www.hpa.org.uk

Novel Strategies For Food Risk

Our every day decision-making behaviour relating to food choice is taken in the context of considerations of health, naturalness, economy, convenience and what we perceive as ‘risk’. Risk perception is now as important as any technical assessment of risk. In order to communicate effectively with the consumer about food risks, the importance of the exchange of information and opinions among the interested parties is recognised (FAO/WHO, 1998). Risk communication is “not just a matter of ensuring that one’s messages are delivered and listened to â€_.. also very much a process of empowering individuals â€_. to sharpen the skills necessary to make balanced judgements on risksâ€ù, (Scherer 1991). This safefood review, conducted on an all-island of Ireland basis, provides valuable insights into the perception of food safety risk from consumers on the island of Ireland and the food safety expert viewpoint. It explores the barriers to communicating with consumers on the island of Ireland about food safety risk. It also studies the barriers to promoting and practising good food hygiene - subgroups within the population are identified as being at ‘high risk’ because of inadequate levels of knowledge or more frequently resulting from not believing that the investment of time and effort in good food safety practice is worthwhile.