Bertrand model under incomplete information

We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with unknown costs. The firms' aim is to choose the price of its product according to the well-known concept of Bayesian Nash equilibrium. The chooses are made simultaneously by both firms. In this paper, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We analyse the advantages, for firms and for consumers, of using the technology with highest production cost versus the one with cheapest production cost. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Information processing in sleep-onset insomnia : a test of the neurocognitive model /

The present thesis study is a systematic investigation of information processing at sleep onset, using auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) as a test of the neurocognitive model of insomnia. Insomnia is an extremely prevalent disorder in society resulting in problems with daytime functioning (e.g., memory, concentration, job performance, mood, job and driving safety). Various models have been put forth in an effort to better understand the etiology and pathophysiology of this disorder. One of the newer models, the neurocognitive model of insomnia, suggests that chronic insomnia occurs through conditioned central nervous system arousal. This arousal is reflected through increased information processing which may interfere with sleep initiation or maintenance. The present thesis employed event-related potentials as a direct method to test information processing during the sleep-onset period. Thirteen poor sleepers with sleep-onset insomnia and 1 2 good sleepers participated in the present study. All poor sleepers met the diagnostic criteria for psychophysiological insomnia and had a complaint of problems with sleep initiation. All good sleepers reported no trouble sleeping and no excessive daytime sleepiness. Good and poor sleepers spent two nights at the Brock University Sleep Research Laboratory. The first night was used to screen for sleep disorders; the second night was used to investigate information processing during the sleep-onset period. Both groups underwent a repeated sleep-onsets task during which an auditory oddball paradigm was delivered. Participants signalled detection of a higher pitch target tone with a button press as they fell asleep. In addition, waking alert ERPs were recorded 1 hour before and after sleep on both Nights 1 and 2.As predicted by the neurocognitive model of insomnia, increased CNS activity was found in the poor sleepers; this was reflected by their smaller amplitude P2 component seen during wake of the sleep-onset period. Unlike the P2 component, the Nl, N350, and P300 did not vary between the groups. The smaller P2 seen in our poor sleepers indicates that they have a deficit in the sleep initiation processes. Specifically, poor sleepers do not disengage their attention from the outside environment to the same extent as good sleepers during the sleep-onset period. The lack of findings for the N350 suggest that this sleep component may be intact in those with insomnia and that it is the waking components (i.e., Nl, P2) that may be leading to the deficit in sleep initiation. Further, it may be that the mechanism responsible for the disruption of sleep initiation in the poor sleepers is most reflected by the P2 component. Future research investigating ERPs in insomnia should focus on the identification of the components most sensitive to sleep disruption. As well, methods should be developed in order to more clearly identify the various types of insomnia populations in research contexts (e.g., psychophysiological vs. sleep-state misperception) and the various individual (personality characteristics, motivation) and environmental factors (arousal-related variables) that influence particular ERP components. Insomnia has serious consequences for health, safety, and daytime functioning, thus research efforts should continue in order to help alleviate this highly prevalent condition.

Numerical aspects in the data model of conceptual information systems

While most data analysis and decision support tools use numerical aspects of the data, Conceptual Information Systems focus on their conceptual structure. This paper discusses how both approaches can be combined.

Local model predictive control for navigation of a wheeled mobile robot using monocular information

Aquesta tesi està inspirada en els agents naturals per tal de planificar de manera dinàmica la navegació d'un robot diferencial de dues rodes. Les dades dels sistemes de percepció són integrades dins una graella d'ocupació de l'entorn local del robot. La planificació de les trajectòries es fa considerant la configuració desitjada del robot, així com els vértexs més significatius dels obstacles més propers. En el seguiment de les trajectòries s'utilitzen tècniques locals de control predictiu basades en el model, amb horitzons de predicció inferiors a un segon. La metodologia emprada és validada mitjançant nombrosos experiments.

Three-level main-effects designs exploiting prior information about model uncertainty

To explore the projection efficiency of a design, Tsai, et al [2000. Projective three-level main effects designs robust to model uncertainty. Biometrika 87, 467-475] introduced the Q criterion to compare three-level main-effects designs for quantitative factors that allow the consideration of interactions in addition to main effects. In this paper, we extend their method and focus on the case in which experimenters have some prior knowledge, in advance of running the experiment, about the probabilities of effects being non-negligible. A criterion which incorporates experimenters' prior beliefs about the importance of each effect is introduced to compare orthogonal, or nearly orthogonal, main effects designs with robustness to interactions as a secondary consideration. We show that this criterion, exploiting prior information about model uncertainty, can lead to more appropriate designs reflecting experimenters' prior beliefs. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A policy model for secure information flow

When a computer program requires legitimate access to confidential data, the question arises whether such a program may illegally reveal sensitive information. This paper proposes a policy model to specify what information flow is permitted in a computational system. The security definition, which is based on a general notion of information lattices, allows various representations of information to be used in the enforcement of secure information flow in deterministic or nondeterministic systems. A flexible semantics-based analysis technique is presented, which uses the input-output relational model induced by an attacker's observational power, to compute the information released by the computational system. An illustrative attacker model demonstrates the use of the technique to develop a termination-sensitive analysis. The technique allows the development of various information flow analyses, parametrised by the attacker's observational power, which can be used to enforce what declassification policies.