Inflation targeting works well in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil

Includes bibliography

Inflation and stabilization policies

Senala algunos de los problemas destacados en el analisis de las causas y consecuencias de la inflacion y el diseno de politicas de estabilizacion; y examina un caso particular, el Plan Austral aplicado en Argentina desde mediados de 1985.

Resolución 13: Inflación = Resolution 13: Inflation = Résolution 13: Inflation

El símbolo E/840/Rev.1 corresponde a la edición bilingüe inglés/francés publicada en 1953

Chameleonic inflation

We attempt to incorporate inflation into a string theory realization of the chameleon mechanism. Previously, it was found that the volume modulus, stabilized by the supersymmetric potential used by Kachru, Kallosh, Linde and Trivedi (KKLT) and with the right choice of parameters, can generically work as a chameleon. In this paper, we ask whether inflation can be realized in the same model. We find that we need a large extra dimensions set-up, as well as a semi-phenomenological deformation of the Kähler potential in the quantum region. We also find that an additional KKLT term is required so that there are now two pieces to the potential, one which drives inflation in the early universe, and one which is responsible for chameleon screening at late times. These two pieces of the potential are separated by a large flat desert in field space. The scalar field must dynamically traverse this desert between the end of inflation and today, and we find that this can indeed occur under the right conditions. © 2013 SISSA, Trieste, Italy.

Inflation and growth = Inflación y crecimiento: Resumen de la experiencia en América Latina

Includes bibliography

Mexico: Combining monthly inflation predictions from surveys

We examine the problem of combining Mexican inflation predictions or projections provided by a biweekly survey of professional forecasters. Consumer price inflation in Mexico is measured twice a month. We consider several combining methods and advocate the use of dimension reduction techniques whose performance is compared with different benchmark methods, including the simplest average prediction. Missing values in the database are imputed by two different databased methods. The results obtained are basically robust to the choice of the imputation method. A preliminary analysis of the data was based on its panel data structure and showed the potential usefulness of using dimension reduction techniques to combine the experts' predictions. The main findings are: the first monthly predictions are best combined by way of the first principal component of the predictions available; the best second monthly prediction is obtained by calculating the median prediction and is more accurate than the first one.

Exchange-rate variations and the rate of inflation in emerging economies

This paper develops a structural general equilibrium model to analyse the reactions of the nominal exchange rate and the domestic price level to three types of external shock in emerging economies that have limited access to world capital markets. Although the results depend crucially on the type of external shock, each of the two national balance-sheet parameters considered here —the risk premium and the ratio of external indebtedness— exacerbates the reactions of the two endogenous variables without altering the degree of exchange-rate pass-through (erpt). Moreover, flatter Phillips curves, as observed today in many economies, tend to increase erpt. On the basis of these results, the authorities of emerging economies seeking to stabilize markets and limit erpt are advised to minimize the two risk parameters by applying a flexible inflation-targeting regime.

Exchange rate pass-through and inflation targets in Chile

Using quarterly data on the Chilean economy from 1986 to 2009, this article looks at the effect of gradual implementation of an inflation-targeting regime on exchange rate pass-through to prices. Initially, the introduction of inflation-targeting contributes to substantial reductions in the pass-through coefficient. However, in the second phase of implementation, once the monetary authority extends the policy horizon and introduces greater flexibility into the exchange rate system, the pass-through coefficient rises sharply. The findings of this study show that exchange rate pass-through to prices, in addition to being sensitive to the inflationary environment, is closely tied to the rules of the game that shape the monetary policy framework.

Energetic efficiency of an agricultural tractor in function of tire inflation pressure

The tire inflation pressure, among other factors, determines the efficiency in which a tractor can exert traction. It was studied the effect of using two tire inflation pressures, 110.4 kPa in the front and rear wheels, 124.2 kPa in the front wheel and 138 kPa in the rear wheels, the energetic efficiency of an agricultural tractor of 147 kW of engine power, in the displacement speed of 6.0 km.h-1, on track with firm surface, with the tractor engine speed of 2000 rpm. For each condition of the tire pressure, the tested tractor was subjected to constant forces in the drawbar of 45 kN and 50 kN, covering 30 meters. It was used a randomized complete block with a 2x2 factorial arrangement (tire pressure and drawbar power) with four replications, totaling 16 experimental units. Data were subjected to analysis of variance, using the Tukey test at 5% probability for comparison averages. The lowest hourly and specific fuel consumption, the lowest slippage of the wheelsets and the highest efficiency in the drawbar was obtained with the tire inflation pressure of 110.4 kPa in the front and rear tires of the tractor, highlighting that lower pressures improve energetic and operational performance of the tractor.

Conformal inflation from the Higgs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Implementing inflation targeting in Brazil: an institutional analysis

The paper shows the advantages and handicaps of implementing an inflation target (IT) regime, from a Post-Keynesian and, thus, an institutional stance. It is Post-Keynesian as long as it does not perceive any benefit in the mainstream split between monetary and fiscal policies. And it is institutional insofar as it assumes that there are several ways of implementing a policy, such that the chosen one is determined by historical factors, as it is illustrated by the Brazilian case. One could even support IT policies if their targets were seen just as “focusing devices” guiding economic policy, notwithstanding other targets, as, in the short run, output growth and employment and, in the long run, technology and human development. Nevertheless, an IT is not necessary, although it can be admitted, mainly if the target is hidden from the public, in order to increase the flexibility of the Central Bank.