1000 resultados para Incertidumbre paramétrica


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La mastectomía es la opción quirúrgica en el tratamiento del cáncer de mama que representa en las mujeres un significativo impacto que ocasiona reacciones frente al sentimiento de mutilación, situación estresante que le genera incertidumbre, experimentando sentimientos de pérdida e identidad femenina. La investigación tuvo como objetivo: Describir y analizar reacciones de las mujeres frente a la mastectomía desde la teoría de la incertidumbre frente a la enfermedad, tomando como base conceptual la teoría de la Mishel Merle. Investigación cualitativa, con abordaje metodológico de estudio de caso. Los sujetos de investigación fueron nueve mujeres mastectomizadas captadas en el servicio de consultorio externo de ginecología del H.N.A.A.A; los datos fueron recolectados mediante la entrevista semi-estructurada, y analizados mediante el análisis de contenido. Obteniéndose las siguientes categorías: I: Antecedentes de la incertidumbre frente a la enfermedad, II: Valoración de la incertidumbre de la enfermedad y III: Afrontando mi enfermedad: Dios y mi familia. En todo momento de la investigación se hizo uso de los criterios de rigor científico y éticos. En conclusión, las mujeres con cáncer de mama y que son mastectomizadas experimentan reacciones: tristeza, miedo, soledad, entre otros, que son valorados por cada mujer de forma distinta para su afrontamiento y que el apoyo familiar y de Dios le permite tener la oportunidad de superar este proceso de enfermedad.

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Propuesta del método de cálculo de la incertidumbre para la máquina de fatiga por flexión rotativa -- Fuentes de incertidumbre del ensayo de desgaste flexión rotativa -- Identificación de las fuentes de incertidumbre para el ensayo de fatiga por flexión rotativa -- Fuentes de incertidumbre por magnitud de entrada para el mensurando del número de ciclos hasta la ruptura -- Determinación de los coeficientes de sensibilidad para el mensurando del número de ciclos -- Cálculo de incertidumbre estándar combinada para el mensurando del esfuerzo a la fatiga -- Determinación del error de los instrumentos de medición -- Estimación de la incertidumbre de la medida para el ensayo de fatiga por flexión rotativa

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En este documento se estima una medida de la incertidumbre inflacionaria. Un modelo de inflación señala incertidumbre cuando los errores de pronóstico son heteroscedásticos. Por medio de la especificación de una ecuación GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), para la varianza del término de error de un modelo de inflación, es posible estimar una proxy de incertidumbre inflacionaria. La estimación simultánea del modelo de inflación y de la ecuación GARCH, produce un nuevo modelo de inflación en el cual los errores de pronóstico son homocedásticos. Existe consenso en la literatura económica en que hay una correlación positiva entre incertidumbre inflacionaria y la magnitud de la tasa de inflación, lo cual, como lo señaló Friedman (1977), representa uno de los costos asociados con la persistencia inflacionaria. Esto es porque tal incertidumbre dificulta la toma de decisiones óptimas por parte de los agentes económicos.La evidencia empírica, para el periodo 1954:01-2002:08, apoya la hipótesis de que para el caso de Costa Rica mientras mayor es la inflación mayor es la incertidumbre respecto a esta variable. En los últimos siete años (1997-2002) la incertidumbre presenta la variación media más baja de todo el periodo. Además, se identifica un efecto asimétrico de la inflación sobre la incertidumbre inflacionaria, es decir, la incertidumbre inflacionaria tiende a incrementarse más para el siguiente periodo cuando la inflación pronosticada está por debajo de la inflación actual, que cuando la inflación pronosticada está por arriba de la tasa observada de inflación. Estos resultados tienen una clara implicación para la política monetaria. Para minimizar la dificultad que la inflación causa en la toma óptima de decisiones de los agentes económicos es necesario perseguir no solamente un nivel bajo de inflación sino que también sea estable.AbstractThis paper estimates a measure of inflationary uncertainty. An inflation model signals uncertainty when the forecast errors are heteroskedastic. By the specification of a GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) equation, for the variance of the error term of the inflation model, it is possible to estimate a proxy for inflationary uncertainty. By the simultaneous estimation of the inflation model and the GARCH equation, a new inflation model is obtained in which the forecast errors are homocedastic. Most economists agree that there is a positive correlation between inflationary uncertainty and the magnitude of the inflation rate, which, as was pointed out by Friedman (1977), represents one of costs associated with the persistence of inflation. This is because such uncertainty clouds the decision-making process of consumers and investors.The empirical evidence for the period 1954:01-2002:08 confirms that in the case of Costa Rica inflationary uncertainty increases as inflation rises. In the last seven years(1997-2002) the uncertainty present the mean variation most small of the period. In addition, inflation has an asymmetric effect on inflationary uncertainty. That is, when the inflation forecast is below the actual inflation, inflationary uncertainty increases for the next period. The opposite happens when the inflation forecast is above the observed rate of inflation. Besides, the absolute value of the change on uncertainty is greater in the first case than the second. These results have a clear implication for monetary policy. To minimize the disruptions that inflation causes to the economic decision-making process, it is necessary to pursue, not only a low level of inflation, but a stable one as well.

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Tese de Doutoramento em Arquitetura, com a especialização em Comunicação Visual, apresentada na Faculdade de Arquitetura da Universidade de Lisboa, para obtenção do grau de Doutor.

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In Brazil and around the world, oil companies are looking for, and expected development of new technologies and processes that can increase the oil recovery factor in mature reservoirs, in a simple and inexpensive way. So, the latest research has developed a new process called Gas Assisted Gravity Drainage (GAGD) which was classified as a gas injection IOR. The process, which is undergoing pilot testing in the field, is being extensively studied through physical scale models and core-floods laboratory, due to high oil recoveries in relation to other gas injection IOR. This process consists of injecting gas at the top of a reservoir through horizontal or vertical injector wells and displacing the oil, taking advantage of natural gravity segregation of fluids, to a horizontal producer well placed at the bottom of the reservoir. To study this process it was modeled a homogeneous reservoir and a model of multi-component fluid with characteristics similar to light oil Brazilian fields through a compositional simulator, to optimize the operational parameters. The model of the process was simulated in GEM (CMG, 2009.10). The operational parameters studied were the gas injection rate, the type of gas injection, the location of the injector and production well. We also studied the presence of water drive in the process. The results showed that the maximum vertical spacing between the two wells, caused the maximum recovery of oil in GAGD. Also, it was found that the largest flow injection, it obtained the largest recovery factors. This parameter controls the speed of the front of the gas injected and determined if the gravitational force dominates or not the process in the recovery of oil. Natural gas had better performance than CO2 and that the presence of aquifer in the reservoir was less influential in the process. In economic analysis found that by injecting natural gas is obtained more economically beneficial than CO2

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Durante siglos se ha sostenido que la naturaleza está obligada a seguir ciertas reglas que conducen a estructuras basadas en la certeza, no debe extrañar, pues, que la matemática, y junto a ella prácticamente todas las ramas de la ciencia, se hayan apoyado en este principio, pero en unos sistemas sociales cada vez más complejos y mutantes resulta difícil imaginar que bastan esas reglas deterministas para explicar el mundo actual y predecir el futuro. En el año 1965 se inician los trabajos que permitieron el surgimiento de una nueva matemática, la matemática de la incertidumbre, enriquecida con el aporte de miles de investigadores en todo el mundo y que ha probado ampliamente su utilidad para abordar los nuevos problemas que se presentan en la actualidad. Los resultados de una búsqueda realizada en Internet arrojan que en un gran número de universidades e incluso en varios centros de enseñanza media superior se abordan los contenidos fundamentales de esta, también llamada matemática borrosa, sobre todo en Europa y América del Norte y principalmente en ingeniería y ciencias económicas. Este trabajo pretende tributar hacia el objetivo de comenzar a preocuparnos seriamente en nuestra región por la difusión de estos temas y su futura incorporación a planes y programas de estudios.

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After the decline of production from natural energy of the reservoir, the methods of enhanced oil recovery, which methods result from the application of special processes such as chemical injection, miscible gases, thermal and others can be applied. The advanced recovery method with alternating - CO2 injection WAG uses the injection of water and gas, normally miscible that will come in contact with the stock oil. In Brazil with the discovery of pre-salt layer that gas gained prominence. The amount of CO2 present in the oil produced in the pre-salt layer, as well as some reservoirs is one of the challenges to be overcome in relation to sustainable production once this gas needs to be processed in some way. Many targets for CO2 are proposed by researchers to describe some alternatives to the use of CO2 gas produced such as enhanced recovery, storage depleted fields, salt caverns storage and marketing of CO2 even in plants. The largest oil discoveries in Brazil have recently been made by Petrobras in the pre -salt layer located between the states of Santa Catarina and Espírito Santo, where he met large volumes of light oil with a density of approximately 28 ° API, low acidity and low sulfur content. This oil that has a large amount of dissolved CO2 and thus a pioneering solution for the fate of this gas comes with an advanced recovery. The objective of this research is to analyze which parameters had the greatest influence on the enhanced recovery process. The simulations were performed using the "GEM" module of the Computer Modelling Group, with the aim of studying the advanced recovery method in question. For this work, semi - synthetic models were used with reservoir and fluid data that can be extrapolated to practical situations in the Brazilian Northeast. The results showed the influence of the alternating injection of water and gas on the recovery factor and flow rate of oil production process, when compared to primary recovery and continuous water injection or continuous gas injection

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A significant fraction of the hydrocarbon reserves in the world is formed by heavy oils. From the thermal methods used to recovery these resources, Steamflooding has been one of the main economically viable alternatives. In Brazil, this technology is widely used by Petrobras in Northeast fields. Latent heat carried by steam heats the oil in the reservoir, reducing its viscosity and facilitating the production. In the last years, an alternative more and more used by the oil industry to increase the efficiency of this mechanism has been the addition of solvents. When co-injected with steam, the vaporized solvent condenses in the cooler regions of the reservoir and mixes with the oil, creating a low viscosity zone between the steam and the heavy oil. The mobility of the displaced fluid is then improved, resulting in an increase of oil recovery. To better understand this improved oil recovery method and investigate its applicability in reservoirs with properties similar to those found in Potiguar Basin, a numerical study was done to analyze the influence of some operational parameters (steam injection rate, injected solvent volume and solvent type) on oil recovery. Simulations were performed in STARS ("Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator"), a CMG ("Computer Modelling Group") program, version 2009.10. It was found that solvents addition to the injected steam not only anticipated the heated oil bank arrival to the producer well, but also increased the oil recovery. Lower cold water equivalent volumes were required to achieve the same oil recoveries from the models that injected only steam. Furthermore, much of the injected solvent was produced with the oil from the reservoir

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

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Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física