Alternaria Spores in the Air Across Europe: Abundance, Seasonality and Relationships with Climate, Meteorology and Local Environment

We explored the temporal and spatial variations in airborne Alternaria spore quantitative and phenological features in Europe using 23 sites with annual time series between 3 and 15 years. The study covers seven countries and four of the main biogeographical regions in Europe. The observations were obtained with Hirst-type spore traps providing time series with daily records. Site locations extend from Spain in the south to Denmark in the north and from England in the West to Poland in the East. The study is therefore the largest assessment ever carried out for Europe concerning Alternaria. Aerobiological data were investigated for temporal and spatial patterns in their start and peak season dates and their spore indices. Moreover, the effects of climate were checked using meteorological data for the same period, using a crop growth model. We found that local climate, vegetation patterns and management of landscape are governing parameters for the overall spore concentration, while the annual variations caused by weather are of secondary importance but should not be neglected. The start of the Alternaria spore season varies by several months in Europe, but the peak of the season is more synchronised in central northern Europe in the middle of the summer, while many southern sites have peak dates either earlier or later than northern Europe. The use of a crop growth model to explain the start and peak of season suggests that such methods could be useful to describe Alternaria seasonality in areas with no available observations.

Simulations of droplet dispersion in the wakes of cylinders and icing tunnel spray bars

Simulations of droplet dispersion behind cylinder wakes and downstream of icing tunnel spray bars were conducted. In both cases, a range of droplet sizes were investigated numerically with a Lagrangian particle trajectory approach while the turbulent air flow was investigated with a hybrid Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes/Large-Eddy Simulations approach scheme. In the first study, droplets were injected downstream of a cylinder at sub-critical conditions (i.e. with laminar boundary layer separation). A stochastic continuous random walk (CRW) turbulence model was used to capture the effects of sub-grid turbulence. Small inertia droplets (characterized by small Stokes numbers) were affected by both the large-scale and small-scale vortex structures and closely followed the air flow, while exhibiting a dispersion consistent with that of a scalar flow field. Droplets with intermediate Stokes numbers were centrifuged by the vortices to the outer edges of the wake, yielding an increased dispersion. Large Stokes number droplets were found to be less responsive to the vortex structures and exhibited the least dispersion. Particle concentration was also correlated with vorticity distribution which yielded preferential bias effects as a function of different particle sizes. This trend was qualitatively similar to results seen in homogenous isotropic turbulence, though the influence of particle inertia was less pronounced for the cylinder wake case. A similar study was completed for droplet dispersion within the Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) at the NASA Glenn Research Center, where it is important to obtain a nearly uniform liquid water content (LWC) distribution in the test section (to recreate atmospheric icing conditions).. For this goal, droplets are diffused by the mean and turbulent flow generated from the nozzle air jets, from the upstream spray bars, and from the vertical strut wakes. To understand the influence of these three components, a set of simulations was conducted with a sequential inclusion of these components. Firstly, a jet in an otherwise quiescent airflow was simulated to capture the impact of the air jet on flow turbulence and droplet distribution, and the predictions compared well with experimental results. The effects of the spray bar wake and vertical strut wake were then included with two more simulation conditions, for which it was found that the air jets were the primary driving force for droplet dispersion, i.e. that the spray bar and vertical strut wake effects were secondary.

A petrographic investigation into the durability of common replacement sandstones to the crystallisation of de-icing salts

Scottish sandstone buildings are now suffering the long-term effects of salt-crystallisation damage, owing in part to the repeated deposition of de-icing salts during winter months. The use of de-icing salts is necessary in order to maintain safe road and pavement conditions during cold weather, but their use comes at a price. Sodium chloride (NaCl), which is used as the primary de-icing salt throughout the country, is a salt known to be damaging to sandstone masonry. However, there remains a range of alternative, commercially available de-icing salts. It is unknown however, what effect these salts have on porous building materials, such as sandstone. In order to protect our built heritage against salt-induced decay, it is vital to understand the effects of these different salts on the range of sandstone types that we see within the historic buildings of Scotland. Eleven common types of sandstone were characterised using a suite of methods in order to understand their mineralogy, pore structure and their response to moisture movement, which are vital properties that govern a stone’s response to weathering and decay. Sandstones were then placed through a range of durability tests designed to measure their resistance to various weathering processes. Three salt crystallisation tests were undertaken on the sandstones over a range of 16 to 50 cycles, which tested their durability to NaCl, CaCl2, MgCl2 and a chloride blend salt. Samples were primarily analysed by measuring their dry weight loss after each cycle, visually after each cycle and by other complimentary methods in order to understand their changing response to moisture uptake after salt treatment. Salt crystallisation was identified as the primary mechanism of decay across each salt, with the extent of damage in each sandstone influenced by environmental conditions and pore-grain properties of the stone. Damage recorded in salt crystallisation tests was ultimately caused by the generation of high crystallisation pressures within the confined pore networks of each stone. Stone and test-specific parameters controlled the location and magnitude of damage, with the amount of micro-pores, their spatial distribution, the water absorption coefficient and the drying efficiency of each stone being identified as the most important stone-specific properties influencing salt-induced decay. Strong correlations were found between the dry weight loss of NaCl treated samples and the proportion of pores <1µm in diameter. Crystallisation pressures are known to scale inversely with pore size, while the spatial distribution of these micro-pores is thought to influence the rate, overall extent and type of decay within the stone by concentrating crystallisation pressures in specific regions of the stone. The water absorption determines the total amount of moisture entering into the stone, which represents the total amount of void space for salt crystallisation. The drying parameters on the other hand, ultimately control the distribution of salt crystallisation. Those stones that were characterised by a combination of a high proportion of micro-pores, high water absorption values and slow drying kinetics were shown to be most vulnerable to NaCl-induced decay. CaCl2 and MgCl2 are shown to have similar crystallisation behaviour, forming thin crystalline sheets under low relative humidity and/or high temperature conditions. Distinct differences in their behaviour that are influenced by test specific criteria were identified. The location of MgCl2 crystallisation close to the stone surface, as influenced by prolonged drying under moderate temperature drying conditions, was identified as the main factor that caused substantial dry weight loss in specific stone types. CaCl2 solutions remained unaffected under these conditions and only crystallised under high temperatures. Homogeneous crystallisation of CaCl2 throughout the stone produced greater internal change, with little dry weight loss recorded. NaCl formed distinctive isometric hopper crystals that caused damage through the non-equilibrium growth of salts in trapped regions of the stone. Damage was sustained as granular decay and contour scaling across most stone types. The pore network and hydric properties of the stones continually evolve in response to salt crystallisation, creating a dynamic system whereby the initial, known properties of clean quarried stone will not continually govern the processes of salt crystallisation, nor indeed can they continually predict the behaviour of stone to salt-induced decay.

Weather variability, tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.

Exploratory spatial analysis of social and environmental factors associated with the incidence of Ross River Virus in Brisbane, Australia

We used geographic information systems and a spatial analysis approach to explore the pattern of Ross River virus (RRV) incidence in Brisbane, Australia. Climate, vegetation and socioeconomic data in 2001 were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Brisbane City Council and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Information on the RRV cases was obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Spatial and multiple negative binomial regression models were used to identify the socioeconomic and environmental determinants of RRV transmission. The results show that RRV activity was primarily concentrated in the northeastern, northwestern, and southeastern regions in Brisbane. Multiple negative binomial regression models showed that the spatial pattern of RRV disease in Brisbane seemed to be determined by a combination of local ecologic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.

Preliminary spatiotemporal analysis of the association between socio-environmental factors and suicide

Background: The seasonality of suicide has long been recognised. However, little is known about the relative importance of socio-environmental factors in the occurrence of suicide in different geographical areas. This study examined the association of climate, socioeconomic and demographic factors with suicide in Queensland, Australia, using a spatiotemporal approach. Methods: Seasonal data on suicide, demographic variables and socioeconomic indexes for areas in each Local Government Area (LGA) between 1999 and 2003 were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Climate data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A multivariable generalized estimating equation model was used to examine the impact of socio-environmental factors on suicide. Results: The preliminary data analyses show that far north Queensland had the highest suicide incidence (e.g., Cook and Mornington Shires), while the south-western areas had the lowest incidence (e.g., Barcoo and Bauhinia Shires) in all the seasons. Maximum temperature, unemployment rate, the proportion of Indigenous population and the proportion of population with low individual income were statistically significantly and positively associated with suicide. There were weaker but not significant associations for other variables. Conclusions: Maximum temperature, the proportion of Indigenous population and unemployment rate appeared to be major determinants of suicide at a LGA level in Queensland.

Weather variability, sunspots, and the blooms of cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03-1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91-0.98) and wind speed (RR:0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18%C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that the weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacterial blooms in dams.