Understanding lake and catchment history as a tool for integrated lake management

Sustainable lake management for nutrient-enriched lakes must be underpinned by an understanding of both the functioning of the lake, and the origins of changes in nutrient loading from the catchment. To date, limnologists have tended to focus on studying the impact of nutrient enrichment on the lake biota, and the dynamics of nutrient cycling between the water column, biota and sediments within the lake. Relatively less attention has been paid to understanding the specific origins of nutrient loading from the catchment and nutrient transport pathways linking the lake to its catchment. As such, when devising catchment management strategies to reduce nutrient loading on enriched lakes, assumptions have been made regarding the relative significance of non-point versus point sources in the catchment. These are not always supported by research conducted on catchment nutrient dynamics in other fields of freshwater science. Studies on nutrient enrichment in lakes need to take account of the history of catchment use and management specific to each lake in order to devise targeted and sustainable management strategies to reduce nutrient loading to enriched lakes. Here a modelling approach which allows quantification of the relative contribution of nutrients from each specific point and non-point catchment source over the course of catchment history is presented. The approach has been applied to three contrasting catchments in the U.K. for the period 1931 to present. These are the catchment of Slapton Ley in south Devon, the River Esk in Cumbria and the Deben Estuary in Suffolk. Each catchment showed marked variations in the nature and intensity of land use and management. The model output quantifies the relative importance of point source versus non-point livestock and land use sources in each of the catchments, and demonstrates the necessity for an understanding of site-specific catchment history in devising suitable management strategies for the reduction of nutrient loading on enriched lakes.

Flood inundation dynamics and socioeconomic vulnerability under environmental change

Floods are a major threat to human existence and historically have both caused the collapse of civilizations and forced the emergence of new cultures. The physical processes of flooding are complex. Increased population, climate variability, change in catchment and channel management, modified landuse and land cover, and natural change of floodplains and river channels all lead to changes in flood dynamics, and as a direct or indirect consequence, social welfare of humans. Section 5.16.1 explores the risks and benefits brought about by floods and reviews the responses of floods and floodplains to climate and landuse change. Section 5.08.2 reviews the existing modeling tools, and the top–down and bottom–up modeling frameworks that are used to assess impacts on future floods. Section 5.08.3 discusses changing flood risk and socioeconomic vulnerability based on current trends in emerging or developing countries and presents an alternative paradigm as a pathway to resilience. Section 5.08.4 concludes the chapter by stating a portfolio of integrated concepts, measures, and avant-garde thinking that would be required to sustainably manage future flood risk.

Development of the Surface Urban Energy and Water balance Scheme (SUEWS) for cold climate cities

The Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) is developed to include snow. The processes addressed include accumulation of snow on the different urban surface types: snow albedo and density aging, snow melting and re-freezing of meltwater. Individual model parameters are assessed and independently evaluated using long-term observations in the two cold climate cities of Helsinki and Montreal. Eddy covariance sensible and latent heat fluxes and snow depth observations are available for two sites in Montreal and one in Helsinki. Surface runoff from two catchments (24 and 45 ha) in Helsinki and snow properties (albedo and density) from two sites in Montreal are also analysed. As multiple observation sites with different land-cover characteristics are available in both cities, model development is conducted independent of evaluation. The developed model simulates snowmelt related runoff well (within 19% and 3% for the two catchments in Helsinki when there is snow on the ground), with the springtime peak estimated correctly. However, the observed runoff peaks tend to be smoother than the simulated ones, likely due to the water holding capacity of the catchments and the missing time lag between the catchment and the observation point in the model. For all three sites the model simulates the timing of the snow accumulation and melt events well, but underestimates the total snow depth by 18–20% in Helsinki and 29–33% in Montreal. The model is able to reproduce the diurnal pattern of net radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat during cold snow, melting snow and snow-free periods. The largest model uncertainties are related to the timing of the melting period and the parameterization of the snowmelt. The results show that the enhanced model can simulate correctly the exchange of energy and water in cold climate cities at sites with varying surface cover.

Modeling and simulation of the anode in direct ethanol fuels cells

Mathematical modeling has been extensively applied to the study and development of fuel cells. In this work, the objective is to characterize a mechanistic model for the anode of a direct ethanol fuel cell and perform appropriate simulations. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) (and the Chemical Engineering Module) was used in this work. The software Comsol Multiphysics (R) is an interactive environment for modeling scientific and engineering applications using partial differential equations (PDEs). Based on the finite element method, it provides speed and accuracy for several applications. The mechanistic model developed here can supply details of the physical system, such as the concentration profiles of the components within the anode and the coverage of the adsorbed species on the electrode surface. Also, the anode overpotential-current relationship can be obtained. To validate the anode model presented in this paper, experimental data obtained with a single fuel cell operating with an ethanol solution at the anode were used. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect Of Different Hydrological Model Structures On The Assimilation Of Distributed Uncertain Observations

The reliable evaluation of the flood forecasting is a crucial problem for assessing flood risk and consequent damages. Different hydrological models (distributed, semi-distributed or lumped) have been proposed in order to deal with this issue. The choice of the proper model structure has been investigated by many authors and it is one of the main sources of uncertainty for a correct evaluation of the outflow hydrograph. In addition, the recent increasing of data availability makes possible to update hydrological models as response of real-time observations. For these reasons, the aim of this work it is to evaluate the effect of different structure of a semi-distributed hydrological model in the assimilation of distributed uncertain discharge observations. The study was applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, located in Italy. The first methodological step was to divide the basin in different sub-basins according to topographic characteristics. Secondly, two different structures of the semi-distributed hydrological model were implemented in order to estimate the outflow hydrograph. Then, synthetic observations of uncertain value of discharge were generated, as a function of the observed and simulated value of flow at the basin outlet, and assimilated in the semi-distributed models using a Kalman Filter. Finally, different spatial patterns of sensors location were assumed to update the model state as response of the uncertain discharge observations. The results of this work pointed out that, overall, the assimilation of uncertain observations can improve the hydrologic model performance. In particular, it was found that the model structure is an important factor, of difficult characterization, since can induce different forecasts in terms of outflow discharge. This study is partly supported by the FP7 EU Project WeSenseIt.

Analysis an development of a prototype based on media wiki and semantic media wiki integrated with a design modeling that allows modeling of organizations based on demo

In a world where organizations are ever more complex the need for the knowledge of the organizational self is a growing necessity. The DEMO methodology sets a goal in achieving the specification of the organizational self capturing the essence of the organization in way independent of its implementation and also coherent, consistent, complete, modular and objective. But having such organization self notion is of little meaning if this notion is not shared by the organization actors. To achieve this goal in a society that has grown attached to technology and where time is of utmost importance, using a tool such as a semantic Wikipedia may be the perfect way of making the information accessible. However, to establish DEMO methodology in such platform there is a need to create bridges between its modeling components and semantic Wikipedia. It’s in that aspect that our thesis focuses, trying to establish and implement, using a study case, the principles of a way of transforming the DEMO methodology diagrams in comprehensive pages on semantic Wikipedia but keeping them as abstract as possible to allow expansibility and generalization to all diagrams without losing any valuable information so that, if that is the wish, those diagrams may be recreated from the semantic pages and make this process a full cycle.

A gestão da qualidade nos cursos de graduação a distância da UFRN/SEDIS : a percepção dos discentes

The management of water resources in the river basin level, as it defines the Law nº 9433/97, requires the effective knowledge of the processes of hydrological basin, resulting from studies based on consistent series of hydrological data that reflect the characteristics of the basin. In this context, the objective of this work was to develop the modeling of catchment basin of the river Jundiaí - RN and carry out the study of attenuation of a flood of the dam Tabatinga, by means of a monitoring project of hydrological data and climatology of the basin, with a view to promoting the development of research activities by applying methodologies unified and appropriate for the assessment of hydrological studies in the transition region of the semiarid and the forest zone on the coast of Rio Grande do Norte. For the study of the hydrological characteristics of the basin was conducted the automatic design of the basin of the river Jundiaí, with the aid of programs of geoprocessing, was adopted a hydrological model daily, the NRCS, which is a model determined and concentrated. For the use of this model was necessary to determine some parameters that are used in this model, as the Curve Number. Having in mind that this is the first study that is being conducted in the basin with the employment of this model, it was made sensitivity analysis of the results of this model from the adoption of different values of CN, situated within a range appropriate to the conditions of use, occupation and the nature of the soil of this basin. As the objective of this study was also developing a simulation model of the operation of the Tabatinga dam and with this flood control caused in the city of Macaíba, it was developed a mathematical model of fluid balance, developed to be used in Microsoft Excel. The simulation was conducted in two phases: the first step was promoted the water balance daily that allowed the analysis of the sensitivity of the model in relation to the volume of waiting, as well as the determination of the period of greatest discharges daily averages. From this point, it was assumed for the second stage, which was in the determination of the hydrograph of discharges effluent slots, that was determined by means of the fluid balance time, on the basis of the discharges effluents generated by a mathematical equation whose parameters were adjusted according to the hydrograph daily. Through the analyzes it was realized that the dam Tabatinga only has how to carry out the attenuation of floods through the regularization of the volume of waiting, with this there is a loss of approximately 56.5% on storage capacity of this dam, because for causing the attenuation effect of filled the shell of this dam has to remain more than 5m below the level of the sill, representing at least 50.582.927m3. The results obtained with the modeling represents a first step in the direction of improving the level of hydrological information about the behavior of the basins of the semiarid. In order to monitor quantitatively the hydrographic basin of the river Jundiaí will be necessary to install a rain gauge register, next to the Tabatinga dam and a pressure transducer, for regular measurements of flow in the reservoir of the dam. The climatological data will be collected in full automatic weather station installed in Agricultural School Jundiaí

Modeling and analysis of artificial neural networks applied in operations research

Artificial neural networks are dynamic systems consisting of highly interconnected and parallel nonlinear processing elements. Systems based on artificial neural networks have high computational rates due to the use of a massive number of these computational elements. Neural networks with feedback connections provide a computing model capable of solving a rich class of optimization problems. In this paper, a modified Hopfield network is developed for solving problems related to operations research. The internal parameters of the network are obtained using the valid-subspace technique. Simulated examples are presented as an illustration of the proposed approach. Copyright (C) 2000 IFAC.

Análise da dinâmica do uso da terra e sua interferência em enchentes na área urbana do município de Americana (SP)

Due to an intense process of population growth and urban density in Americana (SP), mainly due to the development of the local textile industry after 1970, there was, concomitant to the occupation of the margin of rivers and streams, soil sealing that increased the level of superficial runoff, triggering frequent floods. Based on the analysis of these processes we investigate the conditions of one densely urbanized area of the county, the Córrego do Parque, in three time series, 1977, 1996 and 2008. Taking as the starting the characterization and spatial distribution of landscape physiography, we prepared thematic letters and synthetic maps digital scale 1:10,000 from photointerpretation of aeroframes. The thematic maps were produced by scanning with subsequent edition using the software Auto-Cad Map. Checking the data and of geographic coordinates with GPS (Global Positioning System). Regarding land use classes, we used the description of the Soil Conservation Service (1975) which allowed us to get the Curve Number parameter, which will be used in hydrologic modeling for verification of flooding (Tucci, 1989). For the process of hydrologic modeling, we used models based on Methodology Object Oriented Modeling Applied to Water Resource Systems, Viegas Filho (1999), using the computer program called IPHS1, which uses models of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS , 2004), for conversion of rainfall-runoff and the spread of excessive rain. The results indicate that increased waterproofing generated by the change in use and occupation over the past decades promoted the increased surface runoff and drainage system overload, increasing the intensity of floods

Análise de uso da terra e sua interferência em enchentes na região do Córrego Lavapés, Rio Claro (SP)

The development of cities is initially nearby rivers and with the intensification of the urbanization process occurs the soil sealing, leading to an increased level of water runoff, and, consequently, in a greater number of floods. The main goal of this study is to verify the interference of land occupation in the floods of the Lavapés Stream basin, Rio Claro (SP), in five temporal series, 1962, 1972, 1988, 1995 and 2014. The characterizations of land use were made from photo-interpretation and, thus, were produced thematic maps on scale 1: 20.000. The description of the Soil Conservation Service, 2007 was the basis for the classification of land use, thus achieving the CN parameter (Curve Number) used in hydrologic modeling done in IPHS1 program. The results indicate that soil sealing associated with the growth of the city of Rio Claro are responsible for increasing of the discharge in the Lavapés Stream basin and floods in this watershed

Post-breakup tectonics in southeast Brazil from thermochronological data and combined inverse-forward thermal history modeling

The continental margin of southeast Brazil is elevated. Onshore Tertiary basins and Late Cretaceous/Paleogene intrusions are good evidence for post breakup tectono-magmatic activity. To constrain the impact of post-rift reactivation on the geological history of the area, we carried out a new thermochronological study. Apatite fission track ages range from 60.7 +/- 1.9 Ma to 129.3 +/- 4.3 Ma, mean track lengths from 11.41 +/- 0.23 mu m to 14.31 +/- 0.24 mu m and a subset of the (U-Th)/He ages range from 45.1 +/- 1.5 to 122.4 +/- 2.5 Ma. Results of inverse thermal history modeling generally support the conclusions from an earlier study for a Late Cretaceous phase of cooling. Around the onshore Taubate Basin, for a limited number of samples, the first detectable period of cooling occurred during the Early Tertiary. The inferred thermal histories for many samples also imply subsequent reheating followed by Neogene cooling. Given the uncertainty of the inversion results, we did deterministic forward modeling to assess the range of possibilities of this Tertiary part of the thermal history. The evidence for reheating seems to be robust around the Taubate Basin, but elsewhere the data cannot discriminate between this and a less complex thermal history. However, forward modeling results and geological information support the conclusion that the whole area underwent cooling during the Neogene. The synchronicity of the cooling phases with Andean tectonics and those in NE Brazil leads us to assume a plate-wide compressional stress that reactivated inherited structures. The present-day topographic relief of the margin reflects a contribution from post-breakup reactivation and uplift.

Polymeric micelles and molecular modeling applied to the development of radiopharmaceuticals

Micelles composed of amphiphilic copolymers linked to a radioactive element are used in nuclear medicine predominantly as a diagnostic application. A relevant advantage of polymeric micelles in aqueous solution is their resulting particle size, which can vary from 10 to 100 nm in diameter. In this review, polymeric micelles labeled with radioisotopes including technetium (99mTc) and indium (111In), and their clinical applications for several diagnostic techniques, such as single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), gamma-scintigraphy, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), were discussed. Also, micelle use primarily for the diagnosis of lymphatic ducts and sentinel lymph nodes received special attention. Notably, the employment of these diagnostic techniques can be considered a significant tool for functionally exploring body systems as well as investigating molecular pathways involved in the disease process. The use of molecular modeling methodologies and computer-aided drug design strategies can also yield valuable information for the rational design and development of novel radiopharmaceuticals.

Runoff Water Quality and Pollutant Mass Loads From Extensive Green Roofs

Green roof mitigation of volume and peak flow-rate of stormwater runoff has been studied extensively. However, due to the common practice of green roof fertilization, there is the potential for introduction of nutrients into local bodies of water. Therefore, this study compares green roof runoff quality with the water quality of precipitation and runoff from a bare shingle roof. The runoff from a demonstration-scale extensive green roof was analyzed during the summer of 2011 for its effect on runoff volume and analyzed during eleven storm events in the fall and winter for concentrations of copper, cadmium, zinc, lead, nitrogen species, total nitrogen, total organic carbon, sulfate, orthophosphate, and other monovalent and divalent ions. The green roof reduced the overall volume of runoff and served as a sink for NO3 - and NH4 +. However, the green roof was also a source for the pollutants PO4 3-, SO4 2-, TOC, cations, and total nitrogen. Metals such as zinc and lead showed trends of higher mass loads in the bare roof runoff than in precipitation and green roof runoff, although results were not statistically significant. The green roof also showed trends, although also not statistically significant, of retaining cadmium and copper. With the green roof serving as a source of phosphorous species and a sink for nitrogen species, and appearing to a retain metals and total volume, the life cycle impact analysis shows minimum impacts from the green roof, when compared with precipitation and bare roof runoff, in all but fresh water eutrophication. Therefore, the best environments to install a green roof may be in coastal environments.

Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Daily and seasonal thermal stresses in tilings: a field survey combined with numeric modeling

This study investigates thermally induced tensile stresses in ceramic tilings. Daily and seasonal thermal cycles, as well as, rare but extreme events, such as a hail-storm striking a heated terrace tiling, were studied in the field and by numerical modeling investigations. The field surveys delivered temperature– time diagrams and temperature profiles across tiling systems. These data were taken as input parameters for modeling the stress distribution in the tiling system in order to detect potential sites for material failure. Dependent on the thermal scenario (e.g., slow heating of the entire structure during morning and afternoon, or a rapid cooling of the tiles by a rain storm) the modeling indicates specific locations with high tensile stresses. Typically regions along the rim of the tiling field showed stresses, which can become critical with respect to the adhesion strength. Over the years, ongoing cycles of thermal expansion–contraction result in material fatigue promoting the propagation of cracks. However, the installation of flexible waterproofing membranes (applied between substrate and tile adhesive) represents an efficient technical innovation to reduce such crack propagation as confirmed by both numerical modeling results and microstructural studies on real systems.