Climate change induced risk in water quality control problems

A modeling framework is presented in this paper, integrating hydrologic scenarios projected from a General Circulation Model (GCM) with a water quality simulation model to quantify the future expected risk. Statistical downscaling with a Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is carried out to develop the future scenarios of hydro-climate variables starting with simulations provided by a GCM. A Multiple Logistic Regression (MLR) is used to quantify the risk of Low Water Quality (LWQ) corresponding to a threshold quality level, by considering the streamflow and water temperature as explanatory variables. An Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) presented in an earlier study is then used to develop adaptive policies to address the projected water quality risks. Application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with the case study of Tunga-Bhadra river in India. The results showed that the projected changes in the hydro-climate variables tend to diminish DO levels, thus increasing the future risk levels of LWQ. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causality analysis of groundwater dynamics based on a Vector Autoregressive model in the semi-arid basin of Gundal (South India)

Causal relationships existing between observed levels of groundwater in a semi-arid sub-basin of the Kabini River basin (Karnataka state, India) are investigated in this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this purpose. Its structure is built on an upstream/downstream interaction network based on observed hydro-physical properties. Exogenous climatic forcing is used as an input based on cumulated rainfall departure. Optimal models are obtained thanks to a trial approach and are used as a proxy of the dynamics to derive causal networks. It appears to be an interesting tool for analysing the causal relationships existing inside the basin. The causal network reveals 3 main regions: the Northeastern part of the Gundal basin is closely coupled to the outlet dynamics. The Northwestern part is mainly controlled by the climatic forcing and only marginally linked to the outlet dynamic. Finally, the upper part of the basin plays as a forcing rather than a coupling with the lower part of the basin allowing for a separate analysis of this local behaviour. The analysis also reveals differential time scales at work inside the basin when comparing upstream oriented with downstream oriented causalities. In the upper part of the basin, time delays are close to 2 months in the upward direction and lower than 1 month in the downward direction. These time scales are likely to be good indicators of the hydraulic response time of the basin which is a parameter usually difficult to estimate practically. This suggests that, at the sub-basin scale, intra-annual time scales would be more relevant scales for analysing or modelling tropical basin dynamics in hard rock (granitic and gneissic) aquifers ubiquitous in south India. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of the Blade Hub Geometry on the Performance of Low-Head Axial Flow Turbines

The influence of geometric parameters, such as blade profile and hub geometry on axial flow turbines for micro hydro application remains poorly characterized. This paper first introduces a holistic theoretical model for studying the hydraulic phenomenon resulting from geometric modification to the blades. It then describes modification carried out on two runner stages, of which one has untwisted blades and the other has twisted blades obtained by modifying the inlet hub. The experimental results showed that the performance of the untwisted blade runner was satisfactory with a maximum efficiency of 68%. However, positive effects of twisted blades were clearly evident with an efficiency rise of more than 2%. This study also looks into the possible limitations of the model and suggests the extension of the experimental work and the use of computational tools to conduct a progressive validation of all experimental findings, especially on the flow physics within the hub region and the slip phenomena. The paper finally underlines the importance of developing a standardization philosophy for axial flow turbines specific for micro hydro requirements. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)EY.1943-7897.0000060. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Integration of speckle de-noising and image segmentation using synthetic aperture radar image for flood extent extraction

Flood is one of the detrimental hydro-meteorological threats to mankind. This compels very efficient flood assessment models. In this paper, we propose remote sensing based flood assessment using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image because of its imperviousness to unfavourable weather conditions. However, they suffer from the speckle noise. Hence, the processing of SAR image is applied in two stages: speckle removal filters and image segmentation methods for flood mapping. The speckle noise has been reduced with the help of Lee, Frost and Gamma MAP filters. A performance comparison of these speckle removal filters is presented. From the results obtained, we deduce that the Gamma MAP is reliable. The selected Gamma MAP filtered image is segmented using Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) and Mean Shift Segmentation (MSS). The GLCM is a texture analysis method that separates the image pixels into water and non-water groups based on their spectral feature whereas MSS is a gradient ascent method, here segmentation is carried out using spectral and spatial information. As test case, Kosi river flood is considered in our study. From the segmentation result of both these methods are comprehensively analysed and concluded that the MSS is efficient for flood mapping.

Remote sensing applications in water resources

With the introduction of the earth observing satellites, remote sensing has become an important tool in analyzing the Earth's surface characteristics, and hence in supplying valuable information necessary for the hydrologic analysis. Due to their capability to capture the spatial variations in the hydro-meteorological variables and frequent temporal resolution sufficient to represent the dynamics of the hydrologic processes, remote sensing techniques have significantly changed the water resources assessment and management methodologies. Remote sensing techniques have been widely used to delineate the surface water bodies, estimate meteorological variables like temperature and precipitation, estimate hydrological state variables like soil moisture and land surface characteristics, and to estimate fluxes such as evapotranspiration. Today, near-real time monitoring of flood, drought events, and irrigation management are possible with the help of high resolution satellite data. This paper gives a brief overview of the potential applications of remote sensing in water resources.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

Development of a global inundation map at high spatial resolution from topographic downscaling of coarse-scale remote sensing data

Large-scale estimates of the area of terrestrial surface waters have greatly improved over time, in particular through the development of multi-satellite methodologies, but the generally coarse spatial resolution (tens of kms) of global observations is still inadequate for many ecological applications. The goal of this study is to introduce a new, globally applicable downscaling method and to demonstrate its applicability to derive fine resolution results from coarse global inundation estimates. The downscaling procedure predicts the location of surface water cover with an inundation probability map that was generated by bagged derision trees using globally available topographic and hydrographic information from the SRTM-derived HydroSHEDS database and trained on the wetland extent of the GLC2000 global land cover map. We applied the downscaling technique to the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) dataset to produce a new high-resolution inundation map at a pixel size of 15 arc-seconds, termed GIEMS-D15. GIEMS-D15 represents three states of land surface inundation extents: mean annual minimum (total area, 6.5 x 10(6) km(2)), mean annual maximum (12.1 x 10(6) km(2)), and long-term maximum (173 x 10(6) km(2)); the latter depicts the largest surface water area of any global map to date. While the accuracy of GIEMS-D15 reflects distribution errors introduced by the downscaling process as well as errors from the original satellite estimates, overall accuracy is good yet spatially variable. A comparison against regional wetland cover maps generated by independent observations shows that the results adequately represent large floodplains and wetlands. GIEMS-D15 offers a higher resolution delineation of inundated areas than previously available for the assessment of global freshwater resources and the study of large floodplain and wetland ecosystems. The technique of applying inundation probabilities also allows for coupling with coarse-scale hydro-climatological model simulations. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc All rights reserved.

Regionalization of extreme rainfall in India

Regionalization of extreme rainfall is useful for various applications in hydro-meteorology. There is dearth of regionalization studies on extreme rainfall in India. In this perspective, a set of 25 regions that are homogeneous in 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-day extreme rainfall is delineated based on seasonality measure of extreme rainfall and location indicators (latitude, longitude and altitude) by using global fuzzy c-means (GFCM) cluster analysis. The regions are validated for homogeneity in L-moment framework. One of the applications of the regions is in arriving at quantile estimates of extreme rainfall at sparsely gauged/ungauged locations using options such as regional frequency analysis (RFA). The RFA involves use of rainfall-related information from gauged sites in a region as the basis to estimate quantiles of extreme rainfall for target locations that resemble the region in terms of rainfall characteristics. A procedure for RFA based on GFCM-delineated regions is presented and its effectiveness is evaluated by leave-one-out cross validation. Error in quantile estimates for ungauged sites is compared with that resulting from the use of region-of-influence (ROI) approach that forms site-specific regions exclusively for quantile estimation. Results indicate that error in quantile estimates based on GFCM regions and ROI are fairly close, and neither of them is consistent in yielding the least error over all the sites. The cluster analysis approach was effective in reducing the number of regions to be delineated for RFA.

Parametric Studies on Saltwater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifers for Anticipate Sea Level Rise

Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal regions. This study investigates into the parametric analysis on saltwater intrusion in a conceptual, coastal, unconfined aquifer considering wide range of freshwater draft and anticipated sea level rise. The saltwater intrusion under various circumstances is simulated through parametric studies using MODFLOW, MT3DMS and SEAWAT. The MODFLOW is used to simulate the groundwater flow system under changing hydro-dynamics in coastal aquifer. To simulate solute transport MT3DMS and SEAWAT is used. The saltwater intrusion process has direct bearing on hydraulic conductivity and inversely related to porosity. It may also be noted that increase in recharge rate considered in the study does not have much influence on saltwater intrusion. Effect of freshwater draft at locations beyond half of the width of the aquifer considered has marginal effect and hence can be considered as safe zone for freshwater withdrawals. Due to the climate change effect, the anticipated rise in sea level of 0.88 m over a century is considered in the investigation. This causes increase in salinity intrusion by about 25%. The combined effect of sea level rise and freshwater draft (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Experimental Study on Vortex-Induced Vibrations of Submarine Pipeline Near Seabed Boundary in Ocean Currents

Unlike most previous studies on vortex- induced vibrations of a cylinder far from a boundary, this paper focuses On the influences of close proximity of a submarine pipeline to a rigid seabed boundary upon the dynamic responses of the pipeline in ocean currents. The effects of gap-to-diameter ratio and those of the stability parameter on the amplitude and frequency responses of a pipeline are investigated experimentally with a novel hydro-elastic facility. A comparison is made between the present experimental results Of the amplitude and frequency responses for the pipes with seabed boundary effects and those for wall-free cylinders given by Govardhan and Williamson (2000) and Anand ( 1985). The comparison shows that the close proximity of a pipeline to seabed has much influence on the vortex- induced vibrations of the pipeline. Both the width of the lock-in ranges in terms of V, and the dimensionless amplitude ratio A(max)/D become larger with the decrease of the gap-to-diameter ratio e/D. Moreover, the vibration of the pipeline becomes easier to occur and its amplitude response becomes more intensive with the decrease of the stability parameter, while the pipeline frequency responses are affected slightly by the stability parameter.

Influences of the Fish-Mouth Project and the Groins on the Flow and Sediment Ratio of the Yangtze River Waterway

A depth-integrated two-dimensional numerical model of current, salinity and sediment transport was proposed and calibrated by the observation data in the Yangtze River Estuary. It was then applied to investigate the flow and sediment ratio of the navigati

Experimental Study Of Vortex-Induced Vibrations Of A Pipeline Near An Erodible Sandy Seabed

Based on similarity analyses, a series of experiments have been conducted with a newly established hydro-elastic facility to investigate the transverse vortex-induced vibrations (VIVs) of a submarine pipeline near an erodible sandy seabed under the influence of ocean currents. Typical characteristics of coupling processes between pipe vibration and soil scour in the currents have been summarized for Case 1: pipe is laid above seabed and Case 11: pipe is partially embedded in seabed on the basis of the experimental observations. Pipe vibration and the corresponding local scour are usually two coupled physical processes leading to an equilibrium state. The influence of initial gap-to-diameter ratio (e(0)/D) on the interaction between pipe vibration and local scour has been studied. Experimental results show that the critical values of V-r for the initiation of VIVs of the pipe near an erodible sand bed get bigger with decreasing initial gap-to-diameter ratio within the examined range of e(0)/D (-0.25 < e(0)/D < 0.75). The comparison of the pipe vibrations near an erodible soil with those near a rigid boundary and under wall-free conditions indicates that the vibration amplitudes of the pipe near an erodible sand bed are close to the curve fit under wall-free conditions; nevertheless, for the same stability parameter, the maximum amplitudes for the VIV coupled with local scour increase with the increase of initial gap-to-diameter ratio. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical Modeling of Current-Induced Seabed Scour around a Vibrating Submarine Pipeline

Most of the existing researches either focus on vortex-induced-vibrations (VIV) of a pipeline near a rigid boundary, or on seabed scour around a fixed pipeline. In the fields, pipeline vibration and seabed scour are actually always coupled. Based on the similarity analysis, a series of tests were conducted with a hydro-elastic facility to investigate the influence of pipe vibration on the local scour and the effects of scour process on the pipeline dynamic responses. Experimental results indicate that, there exist two phases in the process of sand scouring around the pipeline with small embedment, i.e. Phase I: scour beneath pipe without VIV, and Phase II: scour with VIV of pipe. It is also found that the gap-to-diameter ratio (e/D) has much effect upon the scour depth for the fixed pipes. For a given value of e/D, the vibrating pipes with close proximity to seabed may induce a deeper scour hole than the fixed ones. Within the examined gap-to-diameter ratio range (425 < e/D < 0.75), the influences of gap-to-diameter ratio on the maximum values of scour-depth for the case of vibrating pipes are not as much as those for the case of fixed pipes.

郑哲敏文集