Beyond the Pay: Current Illicit Activities of the Armed Forces in Central America

The growth of criminal gangs and organized crime groups has created unprecedented challenges in Central America. Homicide rates are among the highest in the world, countries spend on average close to 10 percent of GDP to respond to the challenges of public insecurity, and the security forces are frequently overwhelmed and at times coopted by the criminal groups they are increasingly tasked to counter. With some 90 percent of the 700 metric tons of cocaine trafficked from South America to the United States passing through Central America, the lure of aiding illegal traffickers through provision of arms, intelligence, or simply withholding or delaying the use of force is enormous. These conditions raise the question: to what extent are militaries in Central America compromised by illicit ties to criminal groups? The study focuses on three cases: Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Honduras. It finds that: Although illicit ties between the military and criminal groups have grown in the last decade, militaries in these countries are not yet “lost’ to criminal groups. Supplying criminal groups with light arms from military stocks is typical and on the rise, but still not common. In general the less exposed services, the navies and air forces, are the most reliable and effective ones in their roles in interdiction. Of the three countries in the study, the Honduran military is the most worrying because it is embedded in a context where civilian corruption is extremely common, state institutions are notoriously weak, and the political system remains polarized and lacks the popular legitimacy and political will needed to make necessary reforms. Overall, the armed forces in the three countries remain less compromised than civilian peers, particularly the police. However, in the worsening crime and insecurity context, there is a limited window of opportunity in which to introduce measures targeted toward the military, and such efforts can only succeed if opportunities for corruption in other sectors of the state, in particular in law enforcement and the justice system, are also addressed. Measures targeted toward the military should include: Enhanced material benefits and professional education opportunities that open doors for soldiers in promising legitimate careers once they leave military service. A clear system of rewards and punishments specifically designed to deter collusion with criminal groups. More effective securing of military arsenals. Skills and external oversight leveraged through combined operations, to build cooperation among those sectors of the military that have successful and clean records in countering criminal groups, and to expose weaker forces to effective best practices.

Récits motards : examen d'un conflit en milieu criminel

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

Récits motards : examen d'un conflit en milieu criminel

Mémoire numérisé par la Direction des bibliothèques de l'Université de Montréal.

El ritual en los "Textos de las Pirámides": sintaxis, texto y significado

Este trabajo pretende explorar la dimensión ritual en los Textos de las Pirámides, el corpus de literatura religiosa extensa más antiguo de la humanidad. La naturaleza variada de sus componentes textuales ha impedido que los egiptólogos comprendan en profundidad las complejidades de la colección y los contextos originales en los que estos textos (ritos) aparecieron. La aplicación de la teoría del ritual, principalmente la aproximación de la sintaxis ritual, ofrece a los investigadores un marco excelente de análisis e interpretación del corpus, su estructura y función. Sujeto a las reglas de la sintaxis ritual es posible exponer los múltiples niveles de significado en el corpus para la resurrección y salvación del difunto.

Alcohol-Related Problems in Eastern Europe : A Comparative Perspective

This thesis investigates the association between alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm in Eastern Europe. The main aim was to estimate to what extent changes in per capita alcohol consumption have an impact on different forms of alcohol-related mortality, and to put the results in an international comparative perspective. The thesis includes four papers; the first two papers use aggregate time-series analysis to assess how changes in per capita consumption affect rates in suicide mortality and fatal non-intentional injuries in several Eastern European countries, respectively. The third paper applies the same methodological approach to analyse the population-level relationship between alcohol and homicide in Russia and the U.S.. The fourth paper employs survey data to assess how the risk of experiencing alcohol-related problems in relation to volume of consumption in the Baltic countries compares to Sweden and Italy. The results of the first three papers suggests: (i) that changes in per capita consumption are significantly related to changes in mortality rates of suicide, non-intentional injuries and homicide in the countries under study; (ii) that the relationship is stronger for men than for women, and (iii) that the relationship tends to be stronger in the countries with more detrimental drinking patterns, e.g. Russia. The results of the fourth paper suggest that the risk of experiencing alcohol-related problems in relation to level of drinking in the Baltic countries is similar to the corresponding risk in Sweden, but considerably stronger than in Italy. In conclusion, the findings support the significance of a public health approach to alcohol-related problems in Eastern Europe, i.e., policy measures directed towards total alcohol consumption. In addition, strategies aimed at reducing the occurrence of binge drinking seem to have great potential for reducing alcohol-related harm and mortality in Eastern European countries.

Estimating the effect of state-level gun purchasing policy on county-level firearm suicide mortality

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Mining Police-Recorded Offence and Incident Data to Inform a Definition of Repeat Domestic Abuse Victimization for Statistical Reporting

Following inspections in 2013 of all police forces, Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary found that one-third of forces could not provide data on repeat victims of domestic abuse (DA) and concluded that in general there were ambiguities around the term ‘repeat victim’ and that there was a need for consistent and comparable statistics on DA. Using an analysis of police-recorded DA data from two forces, an argument is made for including both offences and non-crime incidents when identifying repeat victims of DA. Furthermore, for statistical purposes the counting period for repeat victimizations should be taken as a rolling 12 months from first recorded victimization. Examples are given of summary statistics that can be derived from these data down to Community Safety Partnership level. To reinforce the need to include both offences and incidents in analyses, repeat victim chronologies from policerecorded data are also used to briefly examine cases of escalation to homicide as an example of how they can offer new insights and greater scope for evaluating risk and effectiveness of interventions.

Les métamorphoses du rapport politique à la mort (recherche de pivots structurant la réflexion en médecine palliative)

Notre recherche explore quelques moments forts des métamorphoses du rapport politique à la mortalité sous examen des thèmes de l’interdit, de la dignité, de l’autonomie et de l’altérité. Nous dégageons des ancrages propices à nourrir la pensée actuelle en médecine palliative. Ainsi, nous livrons une enquête philosophique, appréciant pour nous Occidentaux, les influences marquantes des pensées gréco-romaine, chrétienne et moderne. Ces bases, édifiant notre monde politique, ont suscité l’émergence de la médecine palliative. C’est pourquoi, nous tentons de caractériser et de comprendre les problématiques nouvelles, dans leurs aspects politique et éthique, envisagées à l’aune des formes contemporaines d’accompagnement des mourants. Notre effort tente de discerner les aspirations et les impasses. L’étude de la métamorphose des repères fait ressortir une dissociation accentuée au fil du temps. En effet, au fur et à mesure, notre entreprise d’interprétation du fondement de ces questions politiques dévoilait : une reconnaissance universelle de l’interdit d’homicide, mais accusant une perte du lien moral au profit d’une visée amorale ; un aval unanime du respect de la dignité, mais manifestant une confusion et une division ostensible entre conceptions intrinsèque et extrinsèque ; une affirmation péremptoire de l’autonomie, mais avec une distanciation marquée au regard de la façon d’envisager la part de l’autre ; une déclinaison de liens humains reconnus de tous, mais exacerbés dans une tension artificielle entre individualisme et altruisme. Au surplus, en constatant la distance et la dislocation entre le public et le privé, entre la réclamation de fraternité et la recherche d’amicalité signifiante, nous avons envisagé la communauté palliative comme un lieu de résistance à cette décomposition menaçante au sein de la communauté politique. À terme de l’analyse, nous avons fondé les concepts « d’allonomie » et de « suspension éthique ». Il s’agit de contributions originales destinées à donner à la philosophie toute sa dimension sapientielle au service de l’accompagnement palliatif.

Rape: A timeline of reform

The recent report by Dame Elish Angiolini report (2/6/15) into rape investigation in The Metropolitan Police highlights the issues in modern day rape investigation and makes a list of recommendations(See Table 1) .The report states that ”Rape is one of the most serious but misunderstood crimes and presents investigators and prosecutors with unique challenges. In its variety and complexity rape often presents difficulties far in excess of those encountered in investigating other crimes, including homicide���. This reflects the authors experience as a detective managing detective units and investigating rape in London. The Home Office Research Study in 2005 saw rape as, ‘a unique crime, representing both a physical and psychological violation’. In 2010 Baroness Stern went further, observing, ‘It is unique in the way it strikes at the bodily integrity and self-respect of the complainant, in the demands it makes on those public authorities required to respond to it and in the controversy it generates’. This article will look at these recommendations and place them in the context of 40 years of changing policy towards rape investigation, legal changes and the change in the social milieu.

A Spatial Analysis to Permanent Income as Deterrent of Homicides: the case of Medellin City

This paper studies the relationship between permanent income and homicides, estimating an income-crime elasticity. We assume that this elasticity varies across geographical areas. We estimate different specifications of Spatial Panel Models using information of urban areas in Medellin (Colombia), areas known as communes. Spatial Models consider the importance of location and the type of neighbors of each commune. We simulate an intervention over permanent income in order to estimate the income elasticity for each commune and the average elasticity of income-crime on the city. We provide evidence about spatial dependence between the homicides per commune and their neighbors, and about a relationship between homicides and neighbor’s income. In our case of study, the average estimated impact of 1% increase in permanent income in a specific commune produces a decrease in the homicide rate on average in 0.39%. Finally, permanent income plays a crime deterrent role, but also this effect of income on crime varies across the city, showing that some areas are strategically located to this kind of intervention.

Caracterização do homicida de crianças: O discurso psicológico e o discurso do direito

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada para obtenção de grau de Mestre na especialidade de Psicologia Clínica.

L’intervention en médiation familiale en présence de violence conjugale : dépistage, pratiques d’intervention, défis et préoccupations

Au Québec, la médiation familiale en contexte de violence conjugale est controversée, mais la pratique est très peu documentée et est donc mal connue. L’objectif principal de ce mémoire est de comprendre comment les médiateurs familiaux composent avec la présence de violence conjugale dans le cadre de leur pratique. Les objectifs spécifiques sont les suivants : (1) connaître comment les médiateurs familiaux dépistent la violence conjugale ; (2) savoir comment ils interviennent en présence de violence conjugale une fois cette violence dépistée ; et (3) identifier les défis et les préoccupations rencontrées par les médiateurs dans ces dossiers. Cette étude qualitative fut menée auprès de 8 médiateurs issus des domaines juridique et psychosocial. Les participants furent rencontrés dans le cadre d’entrevues semi-dirigées. Les médiateurs rencontrés insistent sur l’importance d’offrir une formation avancée portant sur la problématique de la violence conjugale et sur les outils de dépistage à tous les médiateurs au Québec et de bonifier la formation actuelle en adressant la dangerosité, le risque de récidive et d'aggravation de la violence et l’appréciation du risque d’homicide conjugal. Les résultats de l’étude suggèrent également l’importance de bien différencier le terrorisme conjugal de la violence situationnelle et de mettre en place des pratiques d’interventions spécifiques à chacun de ces types de violence. La médiation familiale en présence de violence conjugale devrait être un champ de pratique spécialisé et le travail de collaboration avec les ressources spécialisées en violence conjugale nécessiterait d’être renforcé.

Soixante ans de règlements de compte au Québec

Objectifs. Les objectifs de ce mémoire sont au nombre de deux. Le premier objectif est scindé en deux : l’objectif 1A est d’évaluer l’apport et la validité/fiabilité de l’analyse descriptive des règlements de compte amorcée par Cordeau dans sa thèse de doctorat de 1991 puis d’étendre la portée de cette analyse descriptive de part et d’autre des années 1970-1986. Ceci sera fait afin de voir si les règlements de compte de la période de Cordeau diffèrent de notre ensemble; l’objectif 1B est d’évaluer différents taux afin de voir lesquels nous permettent de mieux comprendre les grandes tendances des règlements de compte et leurs vagues. Enfin, le deuxième objectif est d’utiliser l’analyse de réseau afin de confirmer certains points ressortant de l’analyse descriptive des règlements de comptes et d’analyser la structure sociale du règlement de compte au Québec entre 1953 et 2013. Méthodologie. En faisant appel à Allô Police et plusieurs autres sources médiatiques, nous avons constitué une base de données des règlements de comptes québécois entre de 1953 à 2013. Nos analyses font appel à une approche holistique qui intègre à la fois l’analyse statistique descriptive, les tableaux croisés, l’analyse temporelle et l’analyse de réseau afin de bien cerner la question des règlements de compte. Résultats. Nos principaux résultats sont au nombre de quatre: 1) les grandes tendances qu’avait trouvées Cordeau entre 1970-1986 s’appliquent pour l’ensemble des règlements de compte de 1953 à 2013. Ainsi, peu de variations importantes ont été observées entre nos règlements de compte et ceux de Cordeau ; 2) les taux alternatifs se basant sur la population carcérale ou criminelle ne permettent pas de mieux comprendre les règlements de compte par rapport à un taux basé sur la population générale. Par contre, les proportions proposées par Morselli et al (2008) amènent une meilleure conception des périodes d’effervescences du milieu; 3) les groupes criminels qui sont plus exposés à la violence sont aussi ceux qui ont le plus recours à la violence et; 4) les indépendants occupent une place importante parmi les victimes de règlements de compte et ont donc une place importante dans le milieu criminel. Conclusion. Nos résultats font état du besoin d’intégrer différentes approches théoriques et méthodologiques afin de bien cerner la question complexe qu’est le règlement de compte. Avec les avenues de recherches identifiées à la fin de ce mémoire, nous espérons que la relève sera en mesure de mettre à profit les apprentissages de ce mémoire.

L’intervention en médiation familiale en présence de violence conjugale : dépistage, pratiques d’intervention, défis et préoccupations

Au Québec, la médiation familiale en contexte de violence conjugale est controversée, mais la pratique est très peu documentée et est donc mal connue. L’objectif principal de ce mémoire est de comprendre comment les médiateurs familiaux composent avec la présence de violence conjugale dans le cadre de leur pratique. Les objectifs spécifiques sont les suivants : (1) connaître comment les médiateurs familiaux dépistent la violence conjugale ; (2) savoir comment ils interviennent en présence de violence conjugale une fois cette violence dépistée ; et (3) identifier les défis et les préoccupations rencontrées par les médiateurs dans ces dossiers. Cette étude qualitative fut menée auprès de 8 médiateurs issus des domaines juridique et psychosocial. Les participants furent rencontrés dans le cadre d’entrevues semi-dirigées. Les médiateurs rencontrés insistent sur l’importance d’offrir une formation avancée portant sur la problématique de la violence conjugale et sur les outils de dépistage à tous les médiateurs au Québec et de bonifier la formation actuelle en adressant la dangerosité, le risque de récidive et d'aggravation de la violence et l’appréciation du risque d’homicide conjugal. Les résultats de l’étude suggèrent également l’importance de bien différencier le terrorisme conjugal de la violence situationnelle et de mettre en place des pratiques d’interventions spécifiques à chacun de ces types de violence. La médiation familiale en présence de violence conjugale devrait être un champ de pratique spécialisé et le travail de collaboration avec les ressources spécialisées en violence conjugale nécessiterait d’être renforcé.