A catch-free stock assessment model with application to goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida

Many modern stock assessment methods provide the machinery for determining the status of a stock in relation to certain reference points and for estimating how quickly a stock can be rebuilt. However, these methods typically require catch data, which are not always available. We introduce a model-based framework for estimating reference points, stock status, and recovery times in situations where catch data and other measures of absolute abundance are unavailable. The specif ic estimator developed is essentially an age-structured production model recast in terms relative to pre-exploitation levels. A Bayesian estimation scheme is adopted to allow the incorporation of pertinent auxiliary information such as might be obtained from meta-analyses of similar stocks or anecdotal observations. The approach is applied to the population of goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida, for which there are three indices of relative abundance but no reliable catch data. The results confirm anecdotal accounts of a marked decline in abundance during the 1980s followed by a substantial increase after the harvest of goliath grouper was banned in 1990. The ban appears to have reduced fishing pressure to between 10% and 50% of the levels observed during the 1980s. Nevertheless, the predicted fishing mortality rate under the ban appears to remain substantial, perhaps owing to illegal harvest and depth-related release mortality. As a result, the base model predicts that there is less than a 40% chance that the spawning biomass will recover to a level that would produce a 50% spawning potential ratio.

A simple spreadsheet model to incorporate seasonal growth into length-based stock assessment methods

The paper describes a method by which seasonal growth can be incorporated into length-converted catch curves and cohort analyses using a spreadsheet. The method is based on calculating the length of fish using seasonal growth parameters on a daily basis. A LOOKUP function is then used to find the age corresponding to the length.

Toward a Model for Fisheries Social Impact Assessment

This paper presents a model for Fisheries Social Impact Assessment (SIA) that lays the groundwork for development of fisheries-focused, quantitative social assessments with a clear conceptual model. The usefulness of current fisheries SIA’s has been called into question by some as incompatible with approaches taken by fisheries biologists and economists when assessing potential effects of management actions. Our model’s approach is closer to the economists’ and biologists’ assessments and is therefore more useful for Fishery Management Council members. The paper was developed by anthropologists initially brought together in 2004 for an SIA Modeling Workshop by the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policy of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA.

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

A whole-life value based assessment and optimisation model for high-performance glazed facades'

Façade design is a complex and multi-disciplinary process. One major barrier to devising optimal façade solutions is the lack of a systematic way of evaluating the true social, economic and environmental impacts of a design. Another barrier is the lack of automated design aids to assist decision-making. In this paper, we present our on-going study in developing a whole-life value based multi-objective optimisation model for high-performance façades. The principal outcome of this paper is a multi-objective optimisation model for early-stage façade design. The optimisation technique coupled with other 3rd party software and/or specially developed scripts provide façade designers with an integrated design tool of wide applicability.

Primary cultured cells as sensitive in vitro model for assessment of toxicants-comparison to hepatocytes and gill epithelia

In an effort to develop cultured cell models for toxicity screening and environmental biomonitoring, we compared primary cultured gill epithelia and hepatocytes from freshwater tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) to assess their sensitivity to AhR agonist toxicants. Epithelia were cultured on permeable supports (terephthalate membranes, "filters") and bathed on the apical with waterborne toxicants (pseudo in vivo asymmetrical culture conditions). Hepatocytes were cultured in multi-well plates and exposed to toxicants in culture medium. Cytochrome P4501A (measured as 7-Ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase, EROD) was selected as a biomarker. For cultured gill epithelia, the integrity of the epithelia remained unchanged on exposure to model toxicants, such as 1,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), benzo(a)pyrene B[a]P, polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) mixture (Aroclor 1254), and polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) mixture (DE71). A good concentration-dependent response of EROD activity was clearly observed in both cultured gill epithelia and hepatocytes. The time-course response of EROD was measured as early as 3 h, and was maximal after 6 h of exposure to TCDD, B [alp and Aroclor 1254. The estimated 6 h EC50 for TCDD, B [a]P, and Aroclor 1254 was 1.2x10(-9), 5.7x10(-8) and 6.6x10(-6) M. For the cultured hepatocytes, time-course study showed that a significant induction of EROD took place at 18 h, and the maximal induction of EROD was observed at 24 h after exposure. The estimated 24 It EC50 for TCDD, B[a]P, and Aroclor 1254 was 1.4x10(-9), 8.1x10(-8) and 7.3x10(-6) M. There was no induction or inhibition of EROD in DE71 exposure to both gill epithelia and hepatocytes. The results show that cultured gill epithelia more rapidly induce EROD and are slightly more sensitive than cultured hepatocytes, and could be used as a rapid and sensitive tool for screening chemicals and monitoring environmental AhR agonist toxicants. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cell types, network homeostasis, and pathological compensation from a biologically plausible ion channel expression model.

How do neurons develop, control, and maintain their electrical signaling properties in spite of ongoing protein turnover and perturbations to activity? From generic assumptions about the molecular biology underlying channel expression, we derive a simple model and show how it encodes an "activity set point" in single neurons. The model generates diverse self-regulating cell types and relates correlations in conductance expression observed in vivo to underlying channel expression rates. Synaptic as well as intrinsic conductances can be regulated to make a self-assembling central pattern generator network; thus, network-level homeostasis can emerge from cell-autonomous regulation rules. Finally, we demonstrate that the outcome of homeostatic regulation depends on the complement of ion channels expressed in cells: in some cases, loss of specific ion channels can be compensated; in others, the homeostatic mechanism itself causes pathological loss of function.

Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.