Development of a model to measure the efficiency of outsourced companies in the process of aircraft spare parts technical publications

This paper presents a proposal of a model to measure the efficiency of outsourced companies in the aeronautical industry applying the methods DEA and AHP. It also proposes an evaluation in the relation between the variables of the process and the value obtained for the effiiency. The criteria of Quality, Time and Cost were considered the outputs of the process, and those criteria were quantified by AHP for DEA matrix.The number of technical documents received by those outsorced companies were considered the input of the process. The other purpose is to separate the companies in groups considered able to receive an investment to improve their process. Copyright © 2008 SAE International.

Light front fermion model propagation

In this work we consider the propagation of two fermion fields interacting with each other by the exchange of intermediate scalar bosons in the light front. We obtain the corrections up to fourth order in the coupling constant using hierarchical equations in order to obtain the bound state equation (Bethe - Salpeter equation). © 2013 Chinese Physical Society and IOP Publishing Ltd.

Reaction norm model to describe environmental sensitivity across first lactation in dairy cattle under tropical conditions

Reaction norm models have been widely used to study genotype by environment interaction (G × E) in animal breeding. The objective of this study was to describe environmental sensitivity across first lactation in Brazilian Holstein cows using a reaction norm approach. A total of 50,168 individual monthly test day (TD) milk yields (10 test days) from 7476 complete first lactations of Holstein cattle were analyzed. The statistical models for all traits (10 TDs and for 305-day milk yield) included the fixed effects of contemporary group, age of cow (linear and quadratic effects), and days in milk (linear effect), except for 305-day milk yield. A hierarchical reaction norm model (HRNM) based on the unknown covariate was used. The present study showed the presence of G × E in milk yield across first lactation of Holstein cows. The variation in the heritability estimates implies differences in the response to selection depending on the environment where the animals of this population are evaluated. In the average environment, the heritabilities for all traits were rather similar, in range from 0.02 to 0.63. The scaling effect of G × E predominated throughout most of lactation. Particularly during the first 2 months of lactation, G × E caused reranking of breeding values. It is therefore important to include the environmental sensitivity of animals according to the phase of lactation in the genetic evaluations of Holstein cattle in tropical environments.

Teaching elliptical excision skills to novice medical students: a randomized controlled study comparing low- and high-fidelity bench models

Background: The search for alternative and effective forms of training simulation is needed due to ethical and medico-legal aspects involved in training surgical skills on living patients, human cadavers and living animals. Aims : To evaluate if the bench model fidelity interferes in the acquisition of elliptical excision skills by novice medical students. Materials and Methods: Forty novice medical students were randomly assigned to 5 practice conditions with instructor-directed elliptical excision skills' training (n = 8): didactic materials (control); organic bench model (low-fidelity); ethylene-vinyl acetate bench model (low-fidelity); chicken legs' skin bench model (high-fidelity); or pig foot skin bench model (high-fidelity). Pre- and post-tests were applied. Global rating scale, effect size, and self-perceived confidence based on Likert scale were used to evaluate all elliptical excision performances. Results : The analysis showed that after training, the students practicing on bench models had better performance based on Global rating scale (all P < 0.0000) and felt more confident to perform elliptical excision skills (all P < 0.0000) when compared to the control. There was no significant difference (all P > 0.05) between the groups that trained on bench models. The magnitude of the effect (basic cutaneous surgery skills' training) was considered large (>0.80) in all measurements. Conclusion : The acquisition of elliptical excision skills after instructor-directed training on low-fidelity bench models was similar to the training on high-fidelity bench models; and there was a more substantial increase in elliptical excision performances of students that trained on all simulators compared to the learning on didactic materials.

Assessment of variance components in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

The issue of assessing variance components is essential in deciding on the inclusion of random effects in the context of mixed models. In this work we discuss this problem by supposing nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data by using the score-type test proposed in Silvapulle and Silvapulle (1995). Being asymptotically equivalent to the likelihood ratio test and only requiring the estimation under the null hypothesis, this test provides a fairly easy computable alternative for assessing one-sided hypotheses in the context of the marginal model. Taking into account the possible non-normal distribution, we assume that the joint distribution of the response variable and the random effects lies in the elliptical class, which includes light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions such as Student-t, power exponential, logistic, generalized Student-t, generalized logistic, contaminated normal, and the normal itself, among others. We compare the sensitivity of the score-type test under normal, Student-t and power exponential models for the kinetics data set discussed in Vonesh and Carter (1992) and fitted using the model presented in Russo et al. (2009). Also, a simulation study is performed to analyze the consequences of the kurtosis misspecification.

A decaying factor accounts for contained activity in neuronal networks with no need of hierarchical or modular organization

The mechanisms responsible for containing activity in systems represented by networks are crucial in various phenomena, for example, in diseases such as epilepsy that affect the neuronal networks and for information dissemination in social networks. The first models to account for contained activity included triggering and inhibition processes, but they cannot be applied to social networks where inhibition is clearly absent. A recent model showed that contained activity can be achieved with no need of inhibition processes provided that the network is subdivided into modules (communities). In this paper, we introduce a new concept inspired in the Hebbian theory, through which containment of activity is achieved by incorporating a dynamics based on a decaying activity in a random walk mechanism preferential to the node activity. Upon selecting the decay coefficient within a proper range, we observed sustained activity in all the networks tested, namely, random, Barabasi-Albert and geographical networks. The generality of this finding was confirmed by showing that modularity is no longer needed if the dynamics based on the integrate-and-fire dynamics incorporated the decay factor. Taken together, these results provide a proof of principle that persistent, restrained network activation might occur in the absence of any particular topological structure. This may be the reason why neuronal activity does not spread out to the entire neuronal network, even when no special topological organization exists.

A Poisson mixed model with nonnormal random effect distribution

In this paper, we propose a random intercept Poisson model in which the random effect is assumed to follow a generalized log-gamma (GLG) distribution. This random effect accommodates (or captures) the overdispersion in the counts and induces within-cluster correlation. We derive the first two moments for the marginal distribution as well as the intraclass correlation. Even though numerical integration methods are, in general, required for deriving the marginal models, we obtain the multivariate negative binomial model from a particular parameter setting of the hierarchical model. An iterative process is derived for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the multivariate negative binomial model. Residual analysis is proposed and two applications with real data are given for illustration. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multivariate analyses of UV-Vis absorption spectral data from cachaca wood extracts: a model to classify aged Brazilian cachacas according to the wood species used

Multivariate analyses of UV-Vis spectral data from cachaca wood extracts provide a simple and robust model to classify aged Brazilian cachacas according to the wood species used in the maturation barrels. The model is based on inspection of 93 extracts of oak and different Brazilian wood species by a non-aged cachaca used as an extraction solvent. Application of PCA (Principal Components Analysis) and HCA (Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) leads to identification of 6 clusters of cachaca wood extracts (amburana, amendoim, balsamo, castanheira, jatoba, and oak). LDA (Linear Discriminant Analysis) affords classification of 10 different wood species used in the cachaca extracts (amburana, amendoim, balsamo, cabreuva-parda, canela-sassafras, castanheira, jatoba, jequitiba-rosa, louro-canela, and oak) with an accuracy ranging from 80% (amendoim and castanheira) to 100% (balsamo and jequitiba-rosa). The methodology provides a low-cost alternative to methods based on liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry to classify cachacas aged in barrels that are composed of different wood species.

Probing the cosmic distance-duality relation with the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect, X-ray observations and supernovae Ia

Context. The angular diameter distances toward galaxy clusters can be determined with measurements of Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect and X-ray surface brightness combined with the validity of the distance-duality relation, D-L(z)(1 + z)(2)/D-A(z) = 1, where D-L(z) and D-A(z) are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. This combination enables us to probe galaxy cluster physics or even to test the validity of the distance-duality relation itself. Aims. We explore these possibilities based on two different, but complementary approaches. Firstly, in order to constrain the possible galaxy cluster morphologies, the validity of the distance-duality relation (DD relation) is assumed in the Lambda CDM framework (WMAP7). Secondly, by adopting a cosmological-model-independent test, we directly confront the angular diameters from galaxy clusters with two supernovae Ia (SNe Ia) subsamples (carefully chosen to coincide with the cluster positions). The influence of the different SNe Ia light-curve fitters in the previous analysis are also discussed. Methods. We assumed that eta is a function of the redshift parametrized by two different relations: eta(z) = 1 +eta(0)z, and eta(z) = 1 + eta(0)z/(1 + z), where eta(0) is a constant parameter quantifying the possible departure from the strict validity of the DD relation. In order to determine the probability density function (PDF) of eta(0), we considered the angular diameter distances from galaxy clusters recently studied by two different groups by assuming elliptical and spherical isothermal beta models and spherical non-isothermal beta model. The strict validity of the DD relation will occur only if the maximum value of eta(0) PDF is centered on eta(0) = 0. Results. For both approaches we find that the elliptical beta model agrees with the distance-duality relation, whereas the non-isothermal spherical description is, in the best scenario, only marginally compatible. We find that the two-light curve fitters (SALT2 and MLCS2K2) present a statistically significant conflict, and a joint analysis involving the different approaches suggests that clusters are endowed with an elliptical geometry as previously assumed. Conclusions. The statistical analysis presented here provides new evidence that the true geometry of clusters is elliptical. In principle, it is remarkable that a local property such as the geometry of galaxy clusters might be constrained by a global argument like the one provided by the cosmological distance-duality relation.

Influence diagnostics for elliptical semiparametric mixed models

In this paper we extend semiparametric mixed linear models with normal errors to elliptical errors in order to permit distributions with heavier and lighter tails than the normal ones. Penalized likelihood equations are applied to derive the maximum penalized likelihood estimates (MPLEs) which appear to be robust against outlying observations in the sense of the Mahalanobis distance. A reweighed iterative process based on the back-fitting method is proposed for the parameter estimation and the local influence curvatures are derived under some usual perturbation schemes to study the sensitivity of the MPLEs. Two motivating examples preliminarily analyzed under normal errors are reanalyzed considering some appropriate elliptical errors. The local influence approach is used to compare the sensitivity of the model estimates.

The VIMOS-VLT Deep Survey: the evolution of type-1 AGN

Quasars and AGN play an important role in many aspects of the modern cosmology. Of particular interest is the issue of the interplay between AGN activity and formation and evolution of galaxies and structures. Studies on nearby galaxies revealed that most (and possibly all) galaxy nuclei contain a super-massive black hole (SMBH) and that between a third and half of them are showing some evidence of activity (Kormendy and Richstone, 1995). The discovery of a tight relation between black holes mass and velocity dispersion of their host galaxy suggests that the evolution of the growth of SMBH and their host galaxy are linked together. In this context, studying the evolution of AGN, through the luminosity function (LF), is fundamental to constrain the theories of galaxy and SMBH formation and evolution. Recently, many theories have been developed to describe physical processes possibly responsible of a common formation scenario for galaxies and their central black hole (Volonteri et al., 2003; Springel et al., 2005a; Vittorini et al., 2005; Hopkins et al., 2006a) and an increasing number of observations in different bands are focused on collecting larger and larger quasar samples. Many issues remain however not yet fully understood. In the context of the VVDS (VIMOS-VLT Deep Survey), we collected and studied an unbiased sample of spectroscopically selected faint type-1 AGN with a unique and straightforward selection function. Indeed, the VVDS is a large, purely magnitude limited spectroscopic survey of faint objects, free of any morphological and/or color preselection. We studied the statistical properties of this sample and its evolution up to redshift z 4. Because of the contamination of the AGN light by their host galaxies at the faint magnitudes explored by our sample, we observed that a significant fraction of AGN in our sample would be missed by the UV excess and morphological criteria usually adopted for the pre-selection of optical QSO candidates. If not properly taken into account, this failure in selecting particular sub-classes of AGN could, in principle, affect some of the conclusions drawn from samples of AGN based on these selection criteria. The absence of any pre-selection in the VVDS leads us to have a very complete sample of AGN, including also objects with unusual colors and continuum shape. The VVDS AGN sample shows in fact redder colors than those expected by comparing it, for example, with the color track derived from the SDSS composite spectrum. In particular, the faintest objects have on average redder colors than the brightest ones. This can be attributed to both a large fraction of dust-reddened objects and a significant contamination from the host galaxy. We have tested these possibilities by examining the global spectral energy distribution of each object using, in addition to the U, B, V, R and I-band magnitudes, also the UV-Galex and the IR-Spitzer bands, and fitting it with a combination of AGN and galaxy emission, allowing also for the possibility of extinction of the AGN flux. We found that for 44% of our objects the contamination from the host galaxy is not negligible and this fraction decreases to 21% if we restrict the analysis to a bright subsample (M1450 <-22.15). Our estimated integral surface density at IAB < 24.0 is 500 AGN per square degree, which represents the highest surface density of a spectroscopically confirmed sample of optically selected AGN. We derived the luminosity function in B-band for 1.0 < z < 3.6 using the 1/Vmax estimator. Our data, more than one magnitude fainter than previous optical surveys, allow us to constrain the faint part of the luminosity function up to high redshift. A comparison of our data with the 2dF sample at low redshift (1 < z < 2.1) shows that the VDDS data can not be well fitted with the pure luminosity evolution (PLE) models derived by previous optically selected samples. Qualitatively, this appears to be due to the fact that our data suggest the presence of an excess of faint objects at low redshift (1.0 < z < 1.5) with respect to these models. By combining our faint VVDS sample with the large sample of bright AGN extracted from the SDSS DR3 (Richards et al., 2006b) and testing a number of different evolutionary models, we find that the model which better represents the combined luminosity functions, over a wide range of redshift and luminosity, is a luminosity dependent density evolution (LDDE) model, similar to those derived from the major Xsurveys. Such a parameterization allows the redshift of the AGN density peak to change as a function of luminosity, thus fitting the excess of faint AGN that we find at 1.0 < z < 1.5. On the basis of this model we find, for the first time from the analysis of optically selected samples, that the peak of the AGN space density shifts significantly towards lower redshift going to lower luminosity objects. The position of this peak moves from z 2.0 for MB <-26.0 to z 0.65 for -22< MB <-20. This result, already found in a number of X-ray selected samples of AGN, is consistent with a scenario of “AGN cosmic downsizing”, in which the density of more luminous AGN, possibly associated to more massive black holes, peaks earlier in the history of the Universe (i.e. at higher redshift), than that of low luminosity ones, which reaches its maximum later (i.e. at lower redshift). This behavior has since long been claimed to be present in elliptical galaxies and it is not easy to reproduce it in the hierarchical cosmogonic scenario, where more massive Dark Matter Halos (DMH) form on average later by merging of less massive halos.

Statistical properties of Radio Halos and the re-acceleration model

Galaxy clusters occupy a special position in the cosmic hierarchy as they are the largest bound structures in the Universe. There is now general agreement on a hierarchical picture for the formation of cosmic structures, in which galaxy clusters are supposed to form by accretion of matter and merging between smaller units. During merger events, shocks are driven by the gravity of the dark matter in the diffuse barionic component, which is heated up to the observed temperature. Radio and hard-X ray observations have discovered non-thermal components mixed with the thermal Intra Cluster Medium (ICM) and this is of great importance as it calls for a “revision” of the physics of the ICM. The bulk of present information comes from the radio observations which discovered an increasing number of Mpcsized emissions from the ICM, Radio Halos (at the cluster center) and Radio Relics (at the cluster periphery). These sources are due to synchrotron emission from ultra relativistic electrons diffusing through µG turbulent magnetic fields. Radio Halos are the most spectacular evidence of non-thermal components in the ICM and understanding the origin and evolution of these sources represents one of the most challenging goal of the theory of the ICM. Cluster mergers are the most energetic events in the Universe and a fraction of the energy dissipated during these mergers could be channelled into the amplification of the magnetic fields and into the acceleration of high energy particles via shocks and turbulence driven by these mergers. Present observations of Radio Halos (and possibly of hard X-rays) can be best interpreted in terms of the reacceleration scenario in which MHD turbulence injected during these cluster mergers re-accelerates high energy particles in the ICM. The physics involved in this scenario is very complex and model details are difficult to test, however this model clearly predicts some simple properties of Radio Halos (and resulting IC emission in the hard X-ray band) which are almost independent of the details of the adopted physics. In particular in the re-acceleration scenario MHD turbulence is injected and dissipated during cluster mergers and thus Radio Halos (and also the resulting hard X-ray IC emission) should be transient phenomena (with a typical lifetime <» 1 Gyr) associated with dynamically disturbed clusters. The physics of the re-acceleration scenario should produce an unavoidable cut-off in the spectrum of the re-accelerated electrons, which is due to the balance between turbulent acceleration and radiative losses. The energy at which this cut-off occurs, and thus the maximum frequency at which synchrotron radiation is produced, depends essentially on the efficiency of the acceleration mechanism so that observations at high frequencies are expected to catch only the most efficient phenomena while, in principle, low frequency radio surveys may found these phenomena much common in the Universe. These basic properties should leave an important imprint in the statistical properties of Radio Halos (and of non-thermal phenomena in general) which, however, have not been addressed yet by present modellings. The main focus of this PhD thesis is to calculate, for the first time, the expected statistics of Radio Halos in the context of the re-acceleration scenario. In particular, we shall address the following main questions: • Is it possible to model “self-consistently” the evolution of these sources together with that of the parent clusters? • How the occurrence of Radio Halos is expected to change with cluster mass and to evolve with redshift? How the efficiency to catch Radio Halos in galaxy clusters changes with the observing radio frequency? • How many Radio Halos are expected to form in the Universe? At which redshift is expected the bulk of these sources? • Is it possible to reproduce in the re-acceleration scenario the observed occurrence and number of Radio Halos in the Universe and the observed correlations between thermal and non-thermal properties of galaxy clusters? • Is it possible to constrain the magnetic field intensity and profile in galaxy clusters and the energetic of turbulence in the ICM from the comparison between model expectations and observations? Several astrophysical ingredients are necessary to model the evolution and statistical properties of Radio Halos in the context of re-acceleration model and to address the points given above. For these reason we deserve some space in this PhD thesis to review the important aspects of the physics of the ICM which are of interest to catch our goals. In Chapt. 1 we discuss the physics of galaxy clusters, and in particular, the clusters formation process; in Chapt. 2 we review the main observational properties of non-thermal components in the ICM; and in Chapt. 3 we focus on the physics of magnetic field and of particle acceleration in galaxy clusters. As a relevant application, the theory of Alfv´enic particle acceleration is applied in Chapt. 4 where we report the most important results from calculations we have done in the framework of the re-acceleration scenario. In this Chapter we show that a fraction of the energy of fluid turbulence driven in the ICM by the cluster mergers can be channelled into the injection of Alfv´en waves at small scales and that these waves can efficiently re-accelerate particles and trigger Radio Halos and hard X-ray emission. The main part of this PhD work, the calculation of the statistical properties of Radio Halos and non-thermal phenomena as expected in the context of the re-acceleration model and their comparison with observations, is presented in Chapts.5, 6, 7 and 8. In Chapt.5 we present a first approach to semi-analytical calculations of statistical properties of giant Radio Halos. The main goal of this Chapter is to model cluster formation, the injection of turbulence in the ICM and the resulting particle acceleration process. We adopt the semi–analytic extended Press & Schechter (PS) theory to follow the formation of a large synthetic population of galaxy clusters and assume that during a merger a fraction of the PdV work done by the infalling subclusters in passing through the most massive one is injected in the form of magnetosonic waves. Then the processes of stochastic acceleration of the relativistic electrons by these waves and the properties of the ensuing synchrotron (Radio Halos) and inverse Compton (IC, hard X-ray) emission of merging clusters are computed under the assumption of a constant rms average magnetic field strength in emitting volume. The main finding of these calculations is that giant Radio Halos are naturally expected only in the more massive clusters, and that the expected fraction of clusters with Radio Halos is consistent with the observed one. In Chapt. 6 we extend the previous calculations by including a scaling of the magnetic field strength with cluster mass. The inclusion of this scaling allows us to derive the expected correlations between the synchrotron radio power of Radio Halos and the X-ray properties (T, LX) and mass of the hosting clusters. For the first time, we show that these correlations, calculated in the context of the re-acceleration model, are consistent with the observed ones for typical µG strengths of the average B intensity in massive clusters. The calculations presented in this Chapter allow us to derive the evolution of the probability to form Radio Halos as a function of the cluster mass and redshift. The most relevant finding presented in this Chapter is that the luminosity functions of giant Radio Halos at 1.4 GHz are expected to peak around a radio power » 1024 W/Hz and to flatten (or cut-off) at lower radio powers because of the decrease of the electron re-acceleration efficiency in smaller galaxy clusters. In Chapt. 6 we also derive the expected number counts of Radio Halos and compare them with available observations: we claim that » 100 Radio Halos in the Universe can be observed at 1.4 GHz with deep surveys, while more than 1000 Radio Halos are expected to be discovered in the next future by LOFAR at 150 MHz. This is the first (and so far unique) model expectation for the number counts of Radio Halos at lower frequency and allows to design future radio surveys. Based on the results of Chapt. 6, in Chapt.7 we present a work in progress on a “revision” of the occurrence of Radio Halos. We combine past results from the NVSS radio survey (z » 0.05 − 0.2) with our ongoing GMRT Radio Halos Pointed Observations of 50 X-ray luminous galaxy clusters (at z » 0.2−0.4) and discuss the possibility to test our model expectations with the number counts of Radio Halos at z » 0.05 − 0.4. The most relevant limitation in the calculations presented in Chapt. 5 and 6 is the assumption of an “averaged” size of Radio Halos independently of their radio luminosity and of the mass of the parent clusters. This assumption cannot be released in the context of the PS formalism used to describe the formation process of clusters, while a more detailed analysis of the physics of cluster mergers and of the injection process of turbulence in the ICM would require an approach based on numerical (possible MHD) simulations of a very large volume of the Universe which is however well beyond the aim of this PhD thesis. On the other hand, in Chapt.8 we report our discovery of novel correlations between the size (RH) of Radio Halos and their radio power and between RH and the cluster mass within the Radio Halo region, MH. In particular this last “geometrical” MH − RH correlation allows us to “observationally” overcome the limitation of the “average” size of Radio Halos. Thus in this Chapter, by making use of this “geometrical” correlation and of a simplified form of the re-acceleration model based on the results of Chapt. 5 and 6 we are able to discuss expected correlations between the synchrotron power and the thermal cluster quantities relative to the radio emitting region. This is a new powerful tool of investigation and we show that all the observed correlations (PR − RH, PR − MH, PR − T, PR − LX, . . . ) now become well understood in the context of the re-acceleration model. In addition, we find that observationally the size of Radio Halos scales non-linearly with the virial radius of the parent cluster, and this immediately means that the fraction of the cluster volume which is radio emitting increases with cluster mass and thus that the non-thermal component in clusters is not self-similar.

Experimental study on Carbon FRP-confined elliptical concrete columns

It is well recognized that the technique of strengthening reinforced concrete (RC) using fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP) jackets is more effective for circular sections, but less effective for rectangular sections. Indeed the presence of angular corners does not permit a uniform confinement to be provided by the FRP jackets to the columns. While rounded corners can enhance the effectiveness of FRP confinement, it will be more efficient to modify the rectangular section into an elliptical section. In addition to the better confinement effectiveness, from an aesthetical point of view, the shape modification would be a surprise to the built environment. This paper presents an experimental study on the behavior of FRP-confined concrete columns with elliptical section. Thirty-two short columns, divided in eight batches, were tested under axial compression. Each batch presents four specimens with different elliptical sections, determined by the aspect ratio a/b, that is the ratio between the minor and mayor axis. By varying this value from 1.0 to 2.0 (1.0, 1.3., 1.7, 2.0), the section becomes more and more elliptical starting from a circular shape. In this way it is possible to study the trend of effectiveness of FRP confinement for different section geometries. It is also interesting to study how the confinement effectiveness may vary by changing the cylinder strength of concrete and the number of the layers of CFRP. For this reason, a cylinder strength of concrete of 25 and 45 MPa have been used for the present research work, and half of the specimens were wrapped by one layer of CFRP, while the remaining specimens were wrapped with two layers. A simple analysis of the results has been carried out for evaluating the experimental work described in the present document. Further studies and analysis on this work should help to achieve a new and more accurate stress-strain model for CFRP-confined concrete columns with an elliptical section.

Stellar Relics of the hierarchical assembly of the Galaxy

This PhD Thesis is part of a long-term wide research project, carried out by the "Osservatorio Astronomico di Bologna (INAF-OABO)", that has as primary goal the comprehension and reconstruction of formation mechanism of galaxies and their evolution history. There is now substantial evidence, both from theoretical and observational point of view, in favor of the hypothesis that the halo of our Galaxy has been at least partially, built up by the progressive accretion of small fragments, similar in nature to the present day dwarf galaxies of the Local Group. In this context, the photometric and spectroscopic study of systems which populate the halo of our Galaxy (i.e. dwarf spheroidal galaxy, tidal streams, massive globular cluster, etc) permits to discover, not only the origin and behaviour of these systems, but also the structure of our Galactic halo, combined with its formation history. In fact, the study of the population of these objects and also of their chemical compositions, age, metallicities and velocity dispersion, permit us not only an improvement in the understanding of the mechanisms that govern the Galactic formation, but also a valid indirect test for cosmological model itself. Specifically, in this Thesis we provided a complete characterization of the tidal Stream of the Sagittarius dwarf spheroidal galaxy, that is the most striking example of the process of tidal disruption and accretion of a dwarf satellite in to our Galaxy. Using Red Clump stars, extracted from the catalogue of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) we obtained an estimate of the distance, the depth along the line of sight and of the number density for each detected portion of the Stream (and more in general for each detected structure along our line of sight). Moreover comparing the relative number (i.e. the ratio) of Blue Horizontal Branch stars and Red Clump stars (the two features are tracers of different age/different metallicity populations) in the main body of the galaxy and in the Stream, in order to verify the presence of an age-metallicity gradient along the Stream. We also report the detection of a population of Red Clump stars probably associated with the recently discovered Bootes III stellar system. Finally, we also present the results of a survey of radial velocities over a wide region, extending from r ~ 10' out to r ~ 80' within the massive star cluster Omega Centauri. The survey was performed with FLAMES@VLT, to study the velocity dispersion profile in the outer regions of this stellar system. All the results presented in this Thesis, have already been published in refeered journals.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.