919 resultados para Hierarchical Petri nets


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Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

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Acquis le 8-12 floréal an VIII (28 avril-2 mai 1804), envoyé de la ville de Sens et remis au département des Manuscrits par le conservateur Millin, et placé dans le grenier du Levant à la suite des mss. venus de Compiègne; cf. B.n.F., département des Manuscrits, Archives Modernes 492, registre des acquisitions du département des Manuscrits an II-an XIV (1793-1805), f. 107 "Biblia sacra metrica a Petro de Riga, cod. memb. s. XIV exaratus in fol."; Delisle, Cab. des mss., II, 15; — ne provient pas de l'abbaye d'Orval (dioc. de Trèves), contrairement à l'avis de Delisle qui a confondu ce ms. et le latin 9749, cf. Cab. des mss., II, 389; A.-C. Fraeijs de Veubeke, Scriptorium, 31, 1977, 348 et 27, 1973, 106 (catalogue des mss. subsistants d'Orval) mais de l'abbaye de Vaux-Luisant, cf. latin 9562

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Microsatellites are used to unravel the fine-scale genetic structure of a hybrid zone between chromosome races Valais and Cordon of the common shrew (Sorex araneus) located in the French Alps. A total of 269 individuals collected between 1992 and 1995 was typed for seven microsatellite loci. A modified version of the classical multiple correspondence analysis is carried out. This analysis clearly shows the dichotomy between the two races. Several approaches are used to study genetic structuring. Gene flow is clearly reduced between these chromosome races and is estimated at one migrant every two generations using X-statistics and one migrant per generation using F-statistics. Hierarchical F- and R-statistics are compared and their efficiency to detect inter- and intraracial patterns of divergence is discussed. Within-race genetic structuring is significant, but remains weak. F-ST displays similar values on both sides of the hybrid zone, although no environmental barriers are found on the Cordon side, whereas the Valais side is divided by several mountain rivers. We introduce the exact G-test to microsatellite data which proved to be a powerful test to detect genetic differentiation within as well as among races. The genetic background of karyotypic hybrids was compared with the genetic background of pure parental forms using a CRT-MCA. Our results indicate that, without knowledge of the karyotypes, we would not have been able to distinguish these hybrids from karyotypically pure samples.