Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Effect of Health Risk Assessment and Counselling on Health Behaviour and Survival in Older People: A Pragmatic Randomised Trial.

BACKGROUND Potentially avoidable risk factors continue to cause unnecessary disability and premature death in older people. Health risk assessment (HRA), a method successfully used in working-age populations, is a promising method for cost-effective health promotion and preventive care in older individuals, but the long-term effects of this approach are unknown. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of an innovative approach to HRA and counselling in older individuals for health behaviours, preventive care, and long-term survival. METHODS AND FINDINGS This study was a pragmatic, single-centre randomised controlled clinical trial in community-dwelling individuals aged 65 y or older registered with one of 19 primary care physician (PCP) practices in a mixed rural and urban area in Switzerland. From November 2000 to January 2002, 874 participants were randomly allocated to the intervention and 1,410 to usual care. The intervention consisted of HRA based on self-administered questionnaires and individualised computer-generated feedback reports, combined with nurse and PCP counselling over a 2-y period. Primary outcomes were health behaviours and preventive care use at 2 y and all-cause mortality at 8 y. At baseline, participants in the intervention group had a mean ± standard deviation of 6.9 ± 3.7 risk factors (including unfavourable health behaviours, health and functional impairments, and social risk factors) and 4.3 ± 1.8 deficits in recommended preventive care. At 2 y, favourable health behaviours and use of preventive care were more frequent in the intervention than in the control group (based on z-statistics from generalised estimating equation models). For example, 70% compared to 62% were physically active (odds ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.16-1.77, p = 0.001), and 66% compared to 59% had influenza vaccinations in the past year (odds ratio 1.35, 95% CI 1.09-1.66, p = 0.005). At 8 y, based on an intention-to-treat analysis, the estimated proportion alive was 77.9% in the intervention and 72.8% in the control group, for an absolute mortality difference of 4.9% (95% CI 1.3%-8.5%, p = 0.009; based on z-test for risk difference). The hazard ratio of death comparing intervention with control was 0.79 (95% CI 0.66-0.94, p = 0.009; based on Wald test from Cox regression model), and the number needed to receive the intervention to prevent one death was 21 (95% CI 12-79). The main limitations of the study include the single-site study design, the use of a brief self-administered questionnaire for 2-y outcome data collection, the unavailability of other long-term outcome data (e.g., functional status, nursing home admissions), and the availability of long-term follow-up data on mortality for analysis only in 2014. CONCLUSIONS This is the first trial to our knowledge demonstrating that a collaborative care model of HRA in community-dwelling older people not only results in better health behaviours and increased use of recommended preventive care interventions, but also improves survival. The intervention tested in our study may serve as a model of how to implement a relatively low-cost but effective programme of disease prevention and health promotion in older individuals. TRIAL REGISTRATION International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN 28458424.

An international assessment of the comprehensibility of material safety data sheets (MSDSs)

Material Safety Data Sheets (MSDSs) are an integral component of occupational hazard communication systems. These documents are used to disseminate hazard information to workers on chemical substances. The primary purpose of this study was to investigate the comprehensibility of MSDSs by workers at an international level. ^ A total of 117 employees of a multi-national petrochemical company participated; thirty-nine (39) each in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. Overall participation rate of those approached to participate was 82%. These countries were selected as they each utilize one of the three major existing hazard communication systems for fixed workplaces. The systems are comprised of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration's Hazard Communication Standard in the United States, the Workplace Hazardous Materials Information System (WHMIS) in Canada, and the compilation of several European Union directives addressing classification, labeling of substances and preparations, and MSDSs in Europe. ^ A pretest posttest randomized study design was used, with the posttest being comparable to an open book test. The results of this research indicated that only about two-thirds of the information on the MSDSs was comprehended by the workers with a significant difference identified among study participants based on country comparisons. This data was fairly consistent with the results of previous MSDS comprehensibility studies conducted in the United States. There was no significant difference in the comprehension level among study participants when taking into account the international hazard communication standard that the MSDS complied with. Marginally, age, education level and experience level did not have a significant impact on the comprehension level. ^ Participants did find MSDSs to be satisfactory in providing the information needed to protect them regardless of their views on the readability and formatting of MSDSs. The health-related information was the least comprehended as less than half of it was comprehended on the basis of the responses. The findings from this research suggest that there is much work needed yet to make MSDSs more comprehensible on a global basis, particularly regarding health-related information. ^

A full pedigree based method for the statistical assessment of genetic anticipation

Genetic anticipation is defined as a decrease in age of onset or increase in severity as the disorder is transmitted through subsequent generations. Anticipation has been noted in the literature for over a century. Recently, anticipation in several diseases including Huntington's Disease, Myotonic Dystrophy and Fragile X Syndrome were shown to be caused by expansion of triplet repeats. Anticipation effects have also been observed in numerous mental disorders (e.g. Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder), cancers (Li-Fraumeni Syndrome, Leukemia) and other complex diseases. ^ Several statistical methods have been applied to determine whether anticipation is a true phenomenon in a particular disorder, including standard statistical tests and newly developed affected parent/affected child pair methods. These methods have been shown to be inappropriate for assessing anticipation for a variety of reasons, including familial correlation and low power. Therefore, we have developed family-based likelihood modeling approaches to model the underlying transmission of the disease gene and penetrance function and hence detect anticipation. These methods can be applied in extended families, thus improving the power to detect anticipation compared with existing methods based only upon parents and children. The first method we have proposed is based on the regressive logistic hazard model. This approach models anticipation by a generational covariate. The second method allows alleles to mutate as they are transmitted from parents to offspring and is appropriate for modeling the known triplet repeat diseases in which the disease alleles can become more deleterious as they are transmitted across generations. ^ To evaluate the new methods, we performed extensive simulation studies for data simulated under different conditions to evaluate the effectiveness of the algorithms to detect genetic anticipation. Results from analysis by the first method yielded empirical power greater than 87% based on the 5% type I error critical value identified in each simulation depending on the method of data generation and current age criteria. Analysis by the second method was not possible due to the current formulation of the software. The application of this method to Huntington's Disease and Li-Fraumeni Syndrome data sets revealed evidence for a generation effect in both cases. ^

Modeling of dangerous phenomena and innovative techniques for hazard evaluation and risk mitigation

Society is frequently exposed to and threatened by dangerous phenomena in many parts of the world. Different types of such phenomena require specific actions for proper risk management, from the stages of hazard identification to those of mitigation (including monitoring and early-warning) and/or reduction. The understanding of both predisposing factors and triggering mechanisms of a given danger and the prediction of its evolution from the source to the overall affected zone are relevant issues that must be addressed to properly evaluate a given hazard.

Electrophysiologic assessment of conduction abnormalities and atrial arrhythmias associated with amyloid cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND Arrhythmias in cardiac amyloidosis (CA) result in significant comorbidity and mortality but have not been well characterized. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to define intracardiac conduction, atrial arrhythmia substrate, and ablation outcomes in a group of advanced CA patients referred for electrophysiologic study. METHODS Electrophysiologic study with or without catheter ablation was performed in 18 CA patients. Findings and catheter ablation outcomes were compared to age- and gender-matched non-CA patients undergoing catheter ablation of persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). RESULTS Supraventricular tachycardias were seen in all 18 CA patients (1 AV nodal reentrant tachycardia, 17 persistent atrial tachycardia [AT]/AF). The HV interval was prolonged (>55 ms) in all CA patients, including 6 with normal QRS duration (≤100 ms). Thirteen supraventricular tachycardia ablations were performed in 11 patients. Of these, 7 underwent left atrial (LA) mapping and ablation for persistent AT/AF. Compared to non-CA age-matched comparator AF patients, CA patients had more extensive areas of low-voltage areas LA (63% ± 22% vs 34% ± 22%, P = .009) and a greater number of inducible ATs (3.3 ± 1.9 ATs vs 0.2 ± 0.4 ATs, P <.001). The recurrence rate for AT/AF 1 year after ablation was greater in CA patients (83% vs 25%), and the hazard ratio for postablation AT/AF recurrence in CA patients was 5.4 (95% confidence interval 1.9-35.5, P = .007). CONCLUSION In this group of patients with advanced CA and atrial arrhythmias, there was extensive conduction system disease and LA endocardial voltage abnormality. Catheter ablation persistent AT/AF in advanced CA was associated with a high recurrence rate and appears to have a limited role in control of these arrhythmias.

Nonnuclear industrial hazardous waste : classifying for hazard management.

S/N 052-003-00859-9

Shallow Landslide Risk Assessment of the Westerly Bluffs of the 7.5-minute Freeland Quadrangle, Whidbey Island, Washington

Landslides often occur on slopes rendered unstable by underlying geology, geomorphology, hydrology, weather-climate, slope modifications, or deforestation. Unfortunately, humans commonly exacerbate such unstable conditions through careless or imprudent development practices. Due to local geology, geography, and climatic conditions, Puget Sound of western Washington State is especially landslide-prone. Despite this known issue, detailed analyses of landslide risks for specific communities are few. This study aims to classify areas of high landslide risk on the westerly bluffs of the 7.5 minute Freeland quadrangle based on a combined approach: mapping using LiDAR imagery and the Landform Remote Identification Model (LRIM) to identify landslides, and implementation of the Shallow Slope Stability Model (SHALSTAB) to establish a landslide exceedance probability. The objective is to produce a risk assessment from two shallow landslide scenarios: (1) minimum bluff setback and runout and (2) maximum bluff setback and runout. A simple risk equation that takes into account the probability of hazard occurrence with physical and economic vulnerability (van Westen, 2004) was applied to both scenarios. Results indicate an possible total loss as much as $32.6b from shallow landslides, given a setback of 12 m and a runout of 235 m.

AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model): A tool for identifying wind erosion hazard in Australia

We present AUSLEM (AUStralian Land Erodibility Model), a land erodibility modelling system that utilizes a rule-set of surficial and climatic thresholds applied through a Geographic Information System (GIs) modelling framework to predict landscape susceptibility to wind erosion. AUSLEM is distinctive in that it quantitatively assesses landscape susceptibility to wind erosion at a 5 x 5 km. spatial resolution on a monthly time-step across Australia. The system was implemented for representative wet (1984), dry (1994), and average rainfall (1997) years with corresponding low, high and moderate dust storm day frequencies. Results demonstrate that AUSLEM can identify landscape erodibility, and provide an interpretation of the physical nature and distribution of erodible landscapes in Australia. Further, results offer an assessment of the dynamic tendencies of erodibility in space and time in response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal synoptic scale climate variability. A comparative analysis of AUSLEM output with independent national and international wind erosion, atmospheric aerosol and dust event records indicates a high level of model competency. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazard detection in older adult drivers

Older adults make up an increasing propordon of automobile drivers in Australia. Despite the fact that older drivers generally drive much less than younger drivers, there is a disdnct increase in accidents, fatalides and injuries in drivers over age 65 (per actual kilometres driven). Accurate means of screening older adults to idendfy those at increased risk of motor vehicle accidents have proved elusive. Neuropsychological assessment and clinical examinadon are not well-correlated with accident risk. On-road tesdng, which is more highly correlated with accident risk, is expensive and dme-consuming, as well as being less suitable as a screening process. Hazard percepdon methods have been used as an effecdve screening method for idendfying younger adults at increased risk of accidents. A brief video-based hazard percepdon screening test involving footage of genuine traffic hazards for use on older individuals will be presented.

Risk assessment applied to comsumer products with reference to CE marking machines for use at work

New Approach’ Directives now govern the health and safety of most products whether destined for workplace or domestic use. These Directives have been enacted into UK law by various specific legislation principally relating to work equipment, machinery and consumer products. This research investigates whether the risk assessment approach used to ensure the safety of machinery may be applied to consumer products. Crucially, consumer products are subject to the Consumer Protection Act (CPA) 1987, where there is no direct reference to “assessing risk”. This contrasts with the law governing the safety of products used in the workplace, where risk assessment underpins the approach. New Approach Directives are supported by European harmonised standards, and in the case of machinery, further supported by the risk assessment standard, EN 1050. The system regulating consumer product safety is discussed, its key elements identified and a graphical model produced. This model incorporates such matters as conformity assessment, the system of regulation, near miss and accident reporting. A key finding of the research is that New Approach Directives have a common feature of specifying essential performance requirements that provide a hazard prompt-list that can form the basis for a risk assessment (the hazard identification stage). Drawing upon 272 prosecution cases, and with thirty examples examined in detail, this research provides evidence that despite the high degree of regulation, unsafe consumer products still find their way onto the market. The research presents a number of risk assessment tools to help Trading Standards Officers (TSOs) prioritise their work at the initial inspection stage when dealing with subsequent enforcement action.

An aquatic risk assessment of ethion and bromacil inputs to the C-25 Canal and Indian River Lagoon

Pesticide monitoring in St. Lucie County by various local, state and federal agencies has indicated consistent residues of several pesticides, including ethion and bromacil. Although pesticides have long been known to pose a threat to non-target species and much background monitoring has been done, no pesticide aquatic risk assessment has been done in this geographical area. Several recognized United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) methods of quantifying risk are employed here to include hazard quotients (HQ) and probabilistic modeling with sensitivity analysis. These methods are employed to characterize potential impacts to aquatic biota of the C-25 Canal and the Indian River Lagoon (in St. Lucie County, Florida) based on current agricultural pesticide use and drainage patterns. The model used in the analysis incorporates available physical-chemical property data, local hydrology, ecosystem information, and pesticide use practices. HQ's, probabilistic distributions, and field sample analyses resulted in high levels of concern (LOCs), which usually indicates a need for regulatory action, including restrictions on use, or cancellation. ^

Older Adult Injury Risk Assessment in the Driving and Occupational Environments

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Improving risk stratification in non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with combined assessment of GRACE and CRUSADE risk scores

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment is fundamental in the management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS), enabling estimation of prognosis. AIMS: To evaluate whether the combined use of GRACE and CRUSADE risk stratification schemes in patients with myocardial infarction outperforms each of the scores individually in terms of mortality and haemorrhagic risk prediction. METHODS: Observational retrospective single-centre cohort study including 566 consecutive patients admitted for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. The CRUSADE model increased GRACE discriminatory performance in predicting all-cause mortality, ascertained by Cox regression, demonstrating CRUSADE independent and additive predictive value, which was sustained throughout follow-up. The cohort was divided into four different subgroups: G1 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE<41); G2 (GRACE<141; CRUSADE≥41); G3 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE<41); G4 (GRACE≥141; CRUSADE≥41). RESULTS: Outcomes and variables estimating clinical severity, such as admission Killip-Kimbal class and left ventricular systolic dysfunction, deteriorated progressively throughout the subgroups (G1 to G4). Survival analysis differentiated three risk strata (G1, lowest risk; G2 and G3, intermediate risk; G4, highest risk). The GRACE+CRUSADE model revealed higher prognostic performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.76) than GRACE alone (AUC 0.70) for mortality prediction, further confirmed by the integrated discrimination improvement index. Moreover, GRACE+CRUSADE combined risk assessment seemed to be valuable in delineating bleeding risk in this setting, identifying G4 as a very high-risk subgroup (hazard ratio 3.5; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Combined risk stratification with GRACE and CRUSADE scores can improve the individual discriminatory power of GRACE and CRUSADE models in the prediction of all-cause mortality and bleeding. This combined assessment is a practical approach that is potentially advantageous in treatment decision-making.