Macroseismology as a Component of Seismicity Assessments in an Intraplate Region: Studies of Northern Europe with Emphasis on Finland

This work focuses on the role of macroseismology in the assessment of seismicity and probabilistic seismic hazard in Northern Europe. The main type of data under consideration is a set of macroseismic observations available for a given earthquake. The macroseismic questionnaires used to collect earthquake observations from local residents since the late 1800s constitute a special part of the seismological heritage in the region. Information of the earthquakes felt on the coasts of the Gulf of Bothnia between 31 March and 2 April 1883 and on 28 July 1888 was retrieved from the contemporary Finnish and Swedish newspapers, while the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT is an example of an early systematic macroseismic survey in the region. A data set of more than 1200 macroseismic questionnaires is available for the earthquake in Central Finland on 16 November 1931. Basic macroseismic investigations including preparation of new intensity data point (IDP) maps were conducted for these earthquakes. Previously disregarded usable observations were found in the press. The improved collection of IDPs of the 1888 earthquake shows that this event was a rare occurrence in the area. In contrast to earlier notions it was felt on both sides of the Gulf of Bothnia. The data on the earthquake of 4 November 1898 GMT were augmented with historical background information discovered in various archives and libraries. This earthquake was of some concern to the authorities, because extra fire inspections were conducted in three towns at least, i.e. Tornio, Haparanda and Piteå, located in the centre of the area of perceptibility. This event posed the indirect hazard of fire, although its magnitude around 4.6 was minor on the global scale. The distribution of slightly damaging intensities was larger than previously outlined. This may have resulted from the amplification of the ground shaking in the soft soil of the coast and river valleys where most of the population was found. The large data set of the 1931 earthquake provided an opportunity to apply statistical methods and assess methodologies that can be used when dealing with macroseismic intensity. It was evaluated using correspondence analysis. Different approaches such as gridding were tested to estimate the macroseismic field from the intensity values distributed irregularly in space. In general, the characteristics of intensity warrant careful consideration. A more pervasive perception of intensity as an ordinal quantity affected by uncertainties is advocated. A parametric earthquake catalogue comprising entries from both the macroseismic and instrumental era was used for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. The parametric-historic methodology was applied to estimate seismic hazard at a given site in Finland and to prepare a seismic hazard map for Northern Europe. The interpretation of these results is an important issue, because the recurrence times of damaging earthquakes may well exceed thousands of years in an intraplate setting such as Northern Europe. This application may therefore be seen as an example of short-term hazard assessment.

Nonlinear ensemble prediction of chaotic daily rainfall

The significance of treating rainfall as a chaotic system instead of a stochastic system for a better understanding of the underlying dynamics has been taken up by various studies recently. However, an important limitation of all these approaches is the dependence on a single method for identifying the chaotic nature and the parameters involved. Many of these approaches aim at only analyzing the chaotic nature and not its prediction. In the present study, an attempt is made to identify chaos using various techniques and prediction is also done by generating ensembles in order to quantify the uncertainty involved. Daily rainfall data of three regions with contrasting characteristics (mainly in the spatial area covered), Malaprabha, Mahanadi and All-India for the period 1955-2000 are used for the study. Auto-correlation and mutual information methods are used to determine the delay time for the phase space reconstruction. Optimum embedding dimension is determined using correlation dimension, false nearest neighbour algorithm and also nonlinear prediction methods. The low embedding dimensions obtained from these methods indicate the existence of low dimensional chaos in the three rainfall series. Correlation dimension method is done on th phase randomized and first derivative of the data series to check whether the saturation of the dimension is due to the inherent linear correlation structure or due to low dimensional dynamics. Positive Lyapunov exponents obtained prove the exponential divergence of the trajectories and hence the unpredictability. Surrogate data test is also done to further confirm the nonlinear structure of the rainfall series. A range of plausible parameters is used for generating an ensemble of predictions of rainfall for each year separately for the period 1996-2000 using the data till the preceding year. For analyzing the sensitiveness to initial conditions, predictions are done from two different months in a year viz., from the beginning of January and June. The reasonably good predictions obtained indicate the efficiency of the nonlinear prediction method for predicting the rainfall series. Also, the rank probability skill score and the rank histograms show that the ensembles generated are reliable with a good spread and skill. A comparison of results of the three regions indicates that although they are chaotic in nature, the spatial averaging over a large area can increase the dimension and improve the predictability, thus destroying the chaotic nature. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-regularized pseudo time-marching schemes for structural system identification with static measurements

We explore the application of pseudo time marching schemes, involving either deterministic integration or stochastic filtering, to solve the inverse problem of parameter identification of large dimensional structural systems from partial and noisy measurements of strictly static response. Solutions of such non-linear inverse problems could provide useful local stiffness variations and do not have to confront modeling uncertainties in damping, an important, yet inadequately understood, aspect in dynamic system identification problems. The usual method of least-square solution is through a regularized Gauss-Newton method (GNM) whose results are known to be sensitively dependent on the regularization parameter and data noise intensity. Finite time,recursive integration of the pseudo-dynamical GNM (PD-GNM) update equation addresses the major numerical difficulty associated with the near-zero singular values of the linearized operator and gives results that are not sensitive to the time step of integration. Therefore, we also propose a pseudo-dynamic stochastic filtering approach for the same problem using a parsimonious representation of states and specifically solve the linearized filtering equations through a pseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF). For multiple sets of measurements involving various load cases, we expedite the speed of thePD-EnKF by proposing an inner iteration within every time step. Results using the pseudo-dynamic strategy obtained through PD-EnKF and recursive integration are compared with those from the conventional GNM, which prove that the PD-EnKF is the best performer showing little sensitivity to process noise covariance and yielding reconstructions with less artifacts even when the ensemble size is small.

Self-regularized pseudo time-marching schemes for structural system identification with static measurements

We explore the application of pseudo time marching schemes, involving either deterministic integration or stochastic filtering, to solve the inverse problem of parameter identification of large dimensional structural systems from partial and noisy measurements of strictly static response. Solutions of such non-linear inverse problems could provide useful local stiffness variations and do not have to confront modeling uncertainties in damping, an important, yet inadequately understood, aspect in dynamic system identification problems. The usual method of least-square solution is through a regularized Gauss-Newton method (GNM) whose results are known to be sensitively dependent on the regularization parameter and data noise intensity. Finite time, recursive integration of the pseudo-dynamical GNM (PD-GNM) update equation addresses the major numerical difficulty associated with the near-zero singular values of the linearized operator and gives results that are not sensitive to the time step of integration. Therefore, we also propose a pseudo-dynamic stochastic filtering approach for the same problem using a parsimonious representation of states and specifically solve the linearized filtering equations through apseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF). For multiple sets ofmeasurements involving various load cases, we expedite the speed of the PD-EnKF by proposing an inner iteration within every time step. Results using the pseudo-dynamic strategy obtained through PD-EnKF and recursive integration are compared with those from the conventional GNM, which prove that the PD-EnKF is the best performer showing little sensitivity to process noise covariance and yielding reconstructions with less artifacts even when the ensemble size is small. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Search for Anomalous Production of Events with Two Photons and Additional Energetic Objects at CDF

We present results of a search for anomalous production of two photons together with an electron, muon, $\tau$ lepton, missing transverse energy, or jets using $p\bar{p}$ collision data from 1.1-2.0 fb$^{-1}$ of integrated luminosity collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF). The event yields and kinematic distributions are examined for signs of new physics without favoring a specific model of new physics. The results are consistent with the standard model expectations. The search employs several new analysis techniques that significantly reduce instrumental backgrounds in channels with an electron and missing transverse energy.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interaction of flux tubes with sound waves

The Landau damping of sound waves in a plasma consisting of ensemble of magnetic flux tubes is discussed. It is shown that sound waves cannot be Landau damped in general but under certain restricted conditions on plasma parameters the possibility of absorption of these waves can exist. The possibility of radiative damping of the acoustic waves along the magnetic filaments is also discussed. It appears that the most plausible mechanism of damping of sound waves in a plasma consisting of magnetic filaments can be due to scattering of a sound wave by the filaments.

Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

A Coordinated Interdependent Protein Circuitry Stabilizes the Kinetochore Ensemble to Protect CENP-A in the Human Pathogenic Yeast Candida albicans

Unlike most eukaryotes, a kinetochore is fully assembled early in the cell cycle in budding yeasts Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Candida albicans. These kinetochores are clustered together throughout the cell cycle. Kinetochore assembly on point centromeres of S. cerevisiae is considered to be a step-wise process that initiates with binding of inner kinetochore proteins on specific centromere DNA sequence motifs. In contrast, kinetochore formation in C. albicans, that carries regional centromeres of 3-5 kb long, has been shown to be a sequence independent but an epigenetically regulated event. In this study, we investigated the process of kinetochore assembly/disassembly in C. albicans. Localization dependence of various kinetochore proteins studied by confocal microscopy and chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP) assays revealed that assembly of a kinetochore is a highly coordinated and interdependent event. Partial depletion of an essential kinetochore protein affects integrity of the kinetochore cluster. Further protein depletion results in complete collapse of the kinetochore architecture. In addition, GFP-tagged kinetochore proteins confirmed similar time-dependent disintegration upon gradual depletion of an outer kinetochore protein (Dam1). The loss of integrity of a kinetochore formed on centromeric chromatin was demonstrated by reduced binding of CENP-A and CENP-C at the centromeres. Most strikingly, Western blot analysis revealed that gradual depletion of any of these essential kinetochore proteins results in concomitant reduction in cellular protein levels of CENP-A. We further demonstrated that centromere bound CENP-A is protected from the proteosomal mediated degradation. Based on these results, we propose that a coordinated interdependent circuitry of several evolutionarily conserved essential kinetochore proteins ensures integrity of a kinetochore formed on the foundation of CENP-A containing centromeric chromatin.

Deformation field in indentation of a granular ensemble

An experimental study has been made of the flow field in indentation of a model granular material. A granular ensemble composed of spherical sand particles with average size of 0.4 mm is indented with a flat ended punch under plane-strain conditions. The region around the indenter is imaged in situ using a high-speed charge-coupled device (CCD) imaging system. By applying a hybrid image analysis technique to image sequences of the indentation, flow parameters such as velocity, velocity gradient, and strain rate are measured at high resolution. The measurements have enabled characterization of the main features of the flow such as dead material zones, velocity jumps, localization of deformation, and regions of highly rotational flow resembling vortices. Implications for validation of theoretical analyses and applications are discussed.

Data assimilation using ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) in ROMS model for Indian Ocean

Study of Oceans dynamics and forecast is crucial as it influences the regional climate and other marine activities. Forecasting oceanographic states like sea surface currents, Sea surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth at different time scales is extremely important for these activities. These forecasts are generated by various ocean general circulation models (OGCM). One such model is the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS). Though ROMS can simulate several features of ocean, it cannot reproduce the thermocline of the ocean properly. Solution to this problem is to incorporates data assimilation (DA) in the model. DA system using Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) has been developed for ROMS model to improve the accuracy of the model forecast. To assimilate data temperature and salinity from ARGO data has been used as observation. Assimilated temperature and salinity without localization shows oscillations compared to the model run without assimilation for India Ocean. Same was also found for u and v-velocity fields. With localization we found that the state variables are diverging within the localization scale.

Copula-Based Modeling of TMI Brightness Temperature With Rainfall Type

Overland rain retrieval using spaceborne microwave radiometer offers a myriad of complications as land presents itself as a radiometrically warm and highly variable background. Hence, land rainfall algorithms of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) have traditionally incorporated empirical relations of microwave brightness temperature (Tb) with rain rate, rather than relying on physically based radiative transfer modeling of rainfall (as implemented in the TMI ocean algorithm). In this paper, sensitivity analysis is conducted using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient as benchmark, to estimate the best combination of TMI low-frequency channels that are highly sensitive to the near surface rainfall rate from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). Results indicate that the TMI channel combinations not only contain information about rainfall wherein liquid water drops are the dominant hydrometeors but also aid in surface noise reduction over a predominantly vegetative land surface background. Furthermore, the variations of rainfall signature in these channel combinations are not understood properly due to their inherent uncertainties and highly nonlinear relationship with rainfall. Copula theory is a powerful tool to characterize the dependence between complex hydrological variables as well as aid in uncertainty modeling by ensemble generation. Hence, this paper proposes a regional model using Archimedean copulas, to study the dependence of TMI channel combinations with respect to precipitation, over the land regions of Mahanadi basin, India, using version 7 orbital data from the passive and active sensors on board TRMM, namely, TMI and PR. Studies conducted for different rainfall regimes over the study area show the suitability of Clayton and Gumbel copulas for modeling convective and stratiform rainfall types for the majority of the intraseasonal months. Furthermore, large ensembles of TMI Tb (from the most sensitive TMI channel combination) were generated conditional on various quantiles (25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th) of the convective and the stratiform rainfall. Comparatively greater ambiguity was observed to model extreme values of the convective rain type. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed model was tested by comparing the results with traditionally employed linear and quadratic models. Results reveal the superior performance of the proposed copula-based technique.

The relationship between classification of multi-domain proteins using an alignment-free approach and their functions: a case study with immunoglobulins

Establishing functional relationships between multi-domain protein sequences is a non-trivial task. Traditionally, delineating functional assignment and relationships of proteins requires domain assignments as a prerequisite. This process is sensitive to alignment quality and domain definitions. In multi-domain proteins due to multiple reasons, the quality of alignments is poor. We report the correspondence between the classification of proteins represented as full-length gene products and their functions. Our approach differs fundamentally from traditional methods in not performing the classification at the level of domains. Our method is based on an alignment free local matching scores (LMS) computation at the amino-acid sequence level followed by hierarchical clustering. As there are no gold standards for full-length protein sequence classification, we resorted to Gene Ontology and domain-architecture based similarity measures to assess our classification. The final clusters obtained using LMS show high functional and domain architectural similarities. Comparison of the current method with alignment based approaches at both domain and full-length protein showed superiority of the LMS scores. Using this method we have recreated objective relationships among different protein kinase sub-families and also classified immunoglobulin containing proteins where sub-family definitions do not exist currently. This method can be applied to any set of protein sequences and hence will be instrumental in analysis of large numbers of full-length protein sequences.

The Ginibre Ensemble and Gaussian Analytic Functions

We show that as n changes, the characteristic polynomial of the n x n random matrix with i.i.d. complex Gaussian entries can be described recursively through a process analogous to Polya's urn scheme. As a result, we get a random analytic function in the limit, which is given by a mixture of Gaussian analytic functions. This suggests another reason why the zeros of Gaussian analytic functions and the Ginibre ensemble exhibit similar local repulsion, but different global behavior. Our approach gives new explicit formulas for the limiting analytic function.

A Gibbs-ensemble based technique for Monte Carlo simulation of electric double layer capacitors (EDLC) at constant voltage

Current methods for molecular simulations of Electric Double Layer Capacitors (EDLC) have both the electrodes and the electrolyte region in a single simulation box. This necessitates simulation of the electrode-electrolyte region interface. Typical capacitors have macroscopic dimensions where the fraction of the molecules at the electrode-electrolyte region interface is very low. Hence, large systems sizes are needed to minimize the electrode-electrolyte region interfacial effects. To overcome these problems, a new technique based on the Gibbs Ensemble is proposed for simulation of an EDLC. In the proposed technique, each electrode is simulated in a separate simulation box. Application of periodic boundary conditions eliminates the interfacial effects. This in addition to the use of constant voltage ensemble allows for a more convenient comparison of simulation results with experimental measurements on typical EDLCs. (C) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC.