795 resultados para Good luck


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Investigating the mechanisms underlying female mate choice is important for sexual-selection theory, but also for population-genetic studies, because distinctive breeding strategies affect differently the dynamics of gene diversity within populations. Using field-monitoring, genetic-assignment, and laboratory-rearing methods, we investigated chorus attendance, mating success and offspring fitness in a population of lek-breeding tree-frogs (Hyla arborea) to test whether female choice is driven by good genes or complementary genes. Chorus attendance explained approximately 50% of the variance in male mating success, but did not correlate with offspring fitness. By contrast, offspring body mass and growth rate correlated with male attractiveness, measured as the number of matings obtained per night of calling. Genetic similarity between mating partners did not depart from random, and did not affect offspring fitness. We conclude that females are able to choose good partners under natural settings and obtain benefits from the good genes, rather than compatible genes, their offspring inherit. This heritability of fitness is likely to reduce effective population sizes below values previously estimated.

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Two hypotheses for how conditions for larval mosquitoes affect vectorial capacity make opposite predictions about the relationship of adult size and frequency of infection with vector-borne pathogens. Competition among larvae produces small adult females. The competition-susceptibility hypothesis postulates that small females are more susceptible to infection and predicts frequency of infection should decrease with size. The competition-longevity hypothesis postulates that small females have lower longevity and lower probability of becoming competent to transmit the pathogen and thus predicts frequency of infection should increase with size. We tested these hypotheses for Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during a dengue outbreak. In the laboratory, longevity increases with size, then decreases at the largest sizes. For field-collected females, generalised linear mixed model comparisons showed that a model with a linear increase of frequency of dengue with size produced the best Akaike’s information criterion with a correction for small sample sizes (AICc). Consensus prediction of three competing models indicated that frequency of infection increases monotonically with female size, consistent with the competition-longevity hypothesis. Site frequency of infection was not significantly related to site mean size of females. Thus, our data indicate that uncrowded, low competition conditions for larvae produce the females that are most likely to be important vectors of dengue. More generally, ecological conditions, particularly crowding and intraspecific competition among larvae, are likely to affect vector-borne pathogen transmission in nature, in this case via effects on longevity of resulting adults. Heterogeneity among individual vectors in likelihood of infection is a generally important outcome of ecological conditions impacting vectors as larvae.

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The dissertation accomplishes two aims: 1) to diagnose what prevents true beliefs from being knowledge; 2) to give an positive account of knowledge. Concerning the first aim, it offers an account of the notion of luck. It defends the view that luck is a form of risk and distinguishes two types of luck. Then, it applies the account to the problem of epistemic luck and distinguishes, accordingly, two types of epistemic luck. It is argued that these two types of epistemic luck explain the whole range of cases of not-known true belief. Concerning the second aim, the dissertation advances an account of knowledge in terms of the notion of cognitive control that deals with the two forms of epistemic luck distinguished.

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Diabet. Med. 28, 539-542 (2011) ABSTRACT: Aims  Achievement of good metabolic control in Type 1 diabetes is a difficult task in routine diabetes care. Education-based flexible intensified insulin therapy has the potential to meet the therapeutic targets while limiting the risk for severe hypoglycaemia. We evaluated the metabolic control and the rate of severe hypoglycaemia in real-life clinical practice in a centre using flexible intensified insulin therapy as standard of care since 1990. Methods  Patients followed for Type 1 diabetes (n = 206) or those with other causes of absolute insulin deficiency (n = 17) in our outpatient clinic were analysed in a cross-sectional study. Mean age (± standard deviation) was 48.9 ± 15.7 years, with diabetes duration of 21.4 ± 14.4 years. Outcome measures were HbA(1c) and frequency of severe hypoglycaemia. Results  Median HbA(1c) was 7.1% (54 mmol/mol) [interquartile range 6.6-7.8 (51-62 mmol/mol)]; a good or acceptable metabolic control with HbA(1c) < 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) or 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) was reached in 43.5 and 64.6% of the patients, respectively. The frequency of severe hypoglycaemic episodes was 15 per 100 patient years: 72.3% of the patients did not experience any such episodes during the past 5 years. Conclusions  Good or acceptable metabolic control is achievable in the majority of patients with Type 1 diabetes or other causes of absolute insulin deficiency in routine diabetes care while limiting the risk for severe hypoglycaemia.

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The launching of the European Neighbourhood Policy has created some expectations. Cooperation between the EU and its partners is expected to get deeper, to the point that neighbouring countries have been promised to share “everything but institutions” with the EU. Moreover, cooperation is also expected to be broader, as it has been presented as including more and more issue areas. In other words, the ENP has the vocation of being a universal instrument to promote the transfer of EU norms. This paper focuses on one single issue area, the environment, and one group of ENP partners, the Western Newly Independent States and the South Caucasus, to revise to what extent neighbourhood policy can provide the mechanisms to encourage rule transfer. Are incentives and disincentives powerful enough? Can the ENP promote the socialization of neighbours into EU environmental norms?

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The effector response of natural killer (NK) cells is determined by opposing signals received through activating and inhibitory receptors. A process termed NK cell education, which is guided by the recognition of Major Histocompatibility Complex class I (MHC-I) molecules, determines how efficiently activating receptors respond to stimulation. This ensures NK cell tolerance to healthy tissues while allowing robust responses to diseased host cells. It was thought that NK cells are educated during their development in the bone marrow and that education fixes the NK cells' functional properties. However, recent findings suggest that the function of mature peripheral NK cells can adapt to changes in their environment and that the persistent exposure to normal-self is essential to maintain NK cell reactivity. Notwithstanding, NK cell stimulation in the context of inflammation can stably improve the functional properties of NK cells.

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The richness of plant species in Swiss alpine-nival summits increased during the climate warming of the 20th century. Thirty-seven summits (2797-3418 m a.s.l.) with both old (~1900-1920) and recent (~2000) plant inventories were used to test whether biological species traits can explain the observed rates of summit colonisation. Species were classified into two groups: good colonisers (colonising five or more summits) and weak colonisers (fewer than five new summits). We compared species traits related to growth, reproduction and dispersal between these two groups and between the good colonisers and a group of high alpine grassland species. The observed colonisation pattern was subsequently compared to a simulated random colonisation pattern. The distribution of new species on the summits was not random, and 16 species exhibited a colonisation rate higher than expected by chance. Taraxacum alpinum aggr. and Cardamine resedifolia were the best colonisers. Results showed that diaspore traits enhancing long-distance dispersal were more frequent among good colonisers than among weak colonisers. Good colonisers were mostly characterised by pappi or narrow wings on their diaspores. Both groups were able to grow on soils more bare and rocky than species from the alpine grasslands. All other biological traits that we considered were similar among the three alpine species groups. These results are important for improving predictive models of species distribution under climate change

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It is generally accepted that financial markets are efficient in the long run a lthough there may be some deviations in the short run. It is also accepted that a good portfolio manager is the one who beats the market persistently along time, this type of manager could not exist if markets were perfectly efficient According to this in a pure efficient market we should find that managers know that they can not beat the market so they would undertake only pure passive management strategies. Assuming a certain degree of inefficiency in the short run, a market may show some managers who tr y to beat the market by undertaking active strategies. From Fama’s efficient markets theory we can state that these active managers may beat the market occasionally although they will not be able to enhance significantly their performance in the long run. On the other hand, in an inefficient market it would be expected to find a higher level of activity related with the higher probability of beating the market. In this paper we follow two objectives: first, we set a basis to analyse the level of efficiency in an asset invest- ment funds market by measuring performance, strategies activity and it’s persistence for a certain group of funds during the period of study. Second, we analyse individual performance persistence in order to determine the existence of skilled managers. The CAPM model is taken as theoretical background and the use of the Sharpe’s ratio as a suitable performance measure in a limited information environment leads to a group performance measurement proposal. The empiri- cal study takes quarterly data from 1999-2007 period, for the whole population of the Spanish asset investment funds market, provided by the CNMV (Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores). This period of study has been chosen to ensure a wide enough range of efficient market observation so it would allow us to set a proper basis to compare with the following period. As a result we develop a model that allows us to measure efficiency in a given asset mutual funds market, based on the level of strategy’s activity undertaken by managers. We also observe persistence in individual performance for a certain group of funds

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Discussions at the inaugural meeting of a Trans-European Pedagogic Research Group for Anatomical Sciences highlighted the fact that there exist considerable variations in the legal and ethical frameworks throughout Europe concerning body bequests for anatomical examination. Such differences appear to reflect cultural and religious variations as well as different legal and constitutional frameworks. For example, there are different views concerning the "ownership" of cadavers and concerning the need (perceived by different societies and national politicians) for legislation specifically related to anatomical dissection. Furthermore, there are different views concerning the acceptability of using unclaimed bodies that have not given informed consent. Given that in Europe there have been a series of controversial anatomical exhibitions and also a public (televised) dissection/autopsy, and given that the commercial sale or transport of anatomical material across national boundaries is strongly debated, it would seem appropriate to "harmonise" the situation (at least in the European Union). This paper summarises the legal situation in a variety of European countries and suggests examples of good practice. In particular, it recommends that all countries should adopt clear legal frameworks to regulate the acceptance of donations for medical education and research. It stresses the need for informed consent, with donors being given clear information upon which to base their decision, intentions to bequest being made by the donor before death and encourages donors to discuss their wishes to bequeath with relatives prior to death. Departments are encouraged, where they feel it appropriate, to hold Services of Thanksgiving and Commemoration for those who have donated their bodies. Finally, there needs to be legislation to regulate transport of bodies or body parts across national borders and a discouragement of any moves towards commercialisation in relation to bequests.

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Much of the current research in portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements deals with the analysis of early pavement life failures and seeks to find ways to prevent those from reoccurring. The Long Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) portion of the Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) has identified some of the key factors in designing and building new PCC pavements. This statement will build on the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) project TR-463, Field Performance Study of Past Iowa Pavement Research: A Look Back. In Iowa and across the nation, there are multiple pavements that were built more than 20 years ago that have been and are continuing to provide very good service to the public. They are found on both state and local routes and in both low and high traffic volume areas. There is a need to learn what went into those pavements, from the subgrade through the surface, that makes them perform so well. The purpose of this research project was to conduct a scoping study that could be used to evaluate the need for additional research to study the attributes of well-performing concrete pavements. The concept of zero-maintenance jointed plain concrete pavements” was iterated in this study for long-lasting, well-performing portland cement concrete pavement sections. The scope of the study was limited to a brief literature survey, pavement performance data collection from many counties, cities, and primary and interstate roads in Iowa, field visits to many selected pavement sites, and analysis of the collected data. No laboratory orfield testing was conducted for this phase of the project. A problem statement with a research plan was created that could be used to guide the second phase of the project.

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This paper investigates the relationship between time variations in output and inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the US. There are changes in the structural coefficients and in the variance of the structural shocks. The policy rules in the 1970s and 1990s are similar as is the transmission of policy disturbances. Inflation persistence is only partly a monetary phenomena. Variations in the systematic component of policy have limited effects on the dynamics of output and inflation. Results are robust to alterations in the auxiliary assumptions.

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In most naturally occurring situations, success depends on both skill and chance. We compare experimental market entry decisions where payoffs depend on skill alone and combinations of skill and luck. We find more risk taking with skill and luck as opposed to skill alone, particularly for males, and little overconfidence. Our data support an explanation based on differential attitudes toward luck by those whose self-assessed skills are low and high. Making luck more important induces greater optimism for the former, while the latter maintain a belief that high levels of skill are sufficient to overcome the vagaries of chance.