Status of the MSSM Higgs sector using global analysis and direct search bounds, and future prospects at the High Luminosity LHC

In this paper, we search for the regions of the phenomenological minimal supersymmetric standard model (pMSSM) parameter space where one can expect to have moderate Higgs mixing angle (alpha) with relatively light (up to 600 GeV) additional Higgses after satisfying the current LHC data. We perform a global fit analysis using most updated data (till December 2014) from the LHC and Tevatron experiments. The constraints coming from the precision measurements of the rare b-decays B-s -> mu(+)mu(-) and b -> s gamma are also considered. We find that low M-A(less than or similar to 350) and high tan beta(greater than or similar to 25) regions are disfavored by the combined effect of the global analysis and flavor data. However, regions with Higgs mixing angle alpha similar to 0.1-0.8 are still allowed by the current data. We then study the existing direct search bounds on the heavy scalar/pseudoscalar (H/A) and charged Higgs boson (H-+/-) masses and branchings at the LHC. It has been found that regions with low to moderate values of tan beta with light additional Higgses (mass <= 600 GeV) are unconstrained by the data, while the regions with tan beta > 20 are excluded considering the direct search bounds by the LHC-8 data. The possibility to probe the region with tan beta <= 20 at the high luminosity run of LHC are also discussed, giving special attention to the H -> hh, H/A -> t (t) over bar and H/A -> tau(+)tau(-) decay modes.

Structural sensitivity of spiral vortex breakdown

Previous numerical simulations have shown that vortex breakdown starts with the formation of a steady axisymmetric bubble and that an unsteady spiralling mode then develops on top of this. We investigate this spiral mode with a linear global stability analysis around the steady bubble and its wake. We obtain the linear direct and adjoint global modes of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations and overlap these to obtain the structural sensitivity of the spiral mode, which identifies the wavemaker region. We also identify regions of absolute instability with a local stability analysis. At moderate swirls, we find that the m=-1 azimuthal mode is the most unstable and that the wavemaker regions of the m=-1 mode lie around the bubble, which is absolutely unstable. The mode is most sensitive to feedback involving the radial and azimuthal components of momentum in the region just upstream of the bubble. To a lesser extent, the mode is also sensitive to feedback involving the axial component of momentum in regions of high shear around the bubble. At an intermediate swirl, in which the bubble and wake have similar absolute growth rates, other researchers have found that the wavemaker of the nonlinear global mode lies in the wake. We agree with their analysis but find that the regions around the bubble are more influential than the wake in determining the growth rate and frequency of the linear global mode. The results from this paper provide the first steps towards passive control strategies for spiral vortex breakdown. © 2013 Cambridge University Press.

Model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using roadside air quality measurements

Most of the air quality modelling work has been so far oriented towards deterministic simulations of ambient pollutant concentrations. This traditional approach, which is based on the use of one selected model and one data set of discrete input values, does not reflect the uncertainties due to errors in model formulation and input data. Given the complexities of urban environments and the inherent limitations of mathematical modelling, it is unlikely that a single model based on routinely available meteorological and emission data will give satisfactory short-term predictions. In this study, different methods involving the use of more than one dispersion model, in association with different emission simulation methodologies and meteorological data sets, were explored for predicting best CO and benzene estimates, and related confidence bounds. The different approaches were tested using experimental data obtained during intensive monitoring campaigns in busy street canyons in Paris, France. Three relative simple dispersion models (STREET, OSPM and AEOLIUS) that are likely to be used for regulatory purposes were selected for this application. A sensitivity analysis was conducted in order to identify internal model parameters that might significantly affect results. Finally, a probabilistic methodology for assessing urban air quality was proposed.

The global distribution of phytoplankton size spectrum and size classes from their light-absorption spectra derived from satellite data

The absorption spectra of phytoplankton in the visible domain hold implicit information on the phytoplankton community structure. Here we use this information to retrieve quantitative information on phytoplankton size structure by developing a novel method to compute the exponent of an assumed power-law for their particle-size spectrum. This quantity, in combination with total chlorophyll-a concentration, can be used to estimate the fractional concentration of chlorophyll in any arbitrarily-defined size class of phytoplankton. We further define and derive expressions for two distinct measures of cell size of mixed. populations, namely, the average spherical diameter of a bio-optically equivalent homogeneous population of cells of equal size, and the average equivalent spherical diameter of a population of cells that follow a power-law particle-size distribution. The method relies on measurements of two quantities of a phytoplankton sample: the concentration of chlorophyll-a, which is an operational index of phytoplankton biomass, and the total absorption coefficient of phytoplankton in the red peak of visible spectrum at 676 nm. A sensitivity analysis confirms that the relative errors in the estimates of the exponent of particle size spectra are reasonably low. The exponents of phytoplankton size spectra, estimated for a large set of in situ data from a variety of oceanic environments (similar to 2400 samples), are within a reasonable range; and the estimated fractions of chlorophyll in pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton are generally consistent with those obtained by an independent, indirect method based on diagnostic pigments determined using high-performance liquid chromatography. The estimates of cell size for in situ samples dominated by different phytoplankton types (diatoms, prymnesiophytes, Prochlorococcus, other cyanobacteria and green algae) yield nominal sizes consistent with the taxonomic classification. To estimate the same quantities from satellite-derived ocean-colour data, we combine our method with algorithms for obtaining inherent optical properties from remote sensing. The spatial distribution of the size-spectrum exponent and the chlorophyll fractions of pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton estimated from satellite remote sensing are in agreement with the current understanding of the biogeography of phytoplankton functional types in the global oceans. This study contributes to our understanding of the distribution and time evolution of phytoplankton size structure in the global oceans.

Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

Uncertainty analysis based on sensitivity applied to angle-ply composite structures

This article describes a finite element-based formulation for the statistical analysis of the response of stochastic structural composite systems whose material properties are described by random fields. A first-order technique is used to obtain the second-order statistics for the structural response considering means and variances of the displacement and stress fields of plate or shell composite structures. Propagation of uncertainties depends on sensitivities taken as measurement of variation effects. The adjoint variable method is used to obtain the sensitivity matrix. This method is appropriated for composite structures due to the large number of random input parameters. Dominant effects on the stochastic characteristics are studied analyzing the influence of different random parameters. In particular, a study of the anisotropy influence on uncertainties propagation of angle-ply composites is carried out based on the proposed approach.

The global distribution of phytoplankton size spectrum and size classes from their light-absorption spectra derived from satellite data

The absorption spectra of phytoplankton in the visible domain hold implicit information on the phytoplankton community structure. Here we use this information to retrieve quantitative information on phytoplankton size structure by developing a novel method to compute the exponent of an assumed power-law for their particle-size spectrum. This quantity, in combination with total chlorophyll-a concentration, can be used to estimate the fractional concentration of chlorophyll in any arbitrarily-defined size class of phytoplankton. We further define and derive expressions for two distinct measures of cell size of mixed populations, namely, the average spherical diameter of a bio-optically equivalent homogeneous population of cells of equal size, and the average equivalent spherical diameter of a population of cells that follow a power-law particle-size distribution. The method relies on measurements of two quantities of a phytoplankton sample: the concentration of chlorophyll-a, which is an operational index of phytoplankton biomass, and the total absorption coefficient of phytoplankton in the red peak of visible spectrum at 676 nm. A sensitivity analysis confirms that the relative errors in the estimates of the exponent of particle size spectra are reasonably low. The exponents of phytoplankton size spectra, estimated for a large set of in situ data from a variety of oceanic environments (~ 2400 samples), are within a reasonable range; and the estimated fractions of chlorophyll in pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton are generally consistent with those obtained by an independent, indirect method based on diagnostic pigments determined using high-performance liquid chromatography. The estimates of cell size for in situ samples dominated by different phytoplankton types (diatoms, prymnesiophytes, Prochlorococcus, other cyanobacteria and green algae) yield nominal sizes consistent with the taxonomic classification. To estimate the same quantities from satellite-derived ocean-colour data, we combine our method with algorithms for obtaining inherent optical properties from remote sensing. The spatial distribution of the size-spectrum exponent and the chlorophyll fractions of pico-, nano- and micro-phytoplankton estimated from satellite remote sensing are in agreement with the current understanding of the biogeography of phytoplankton functional types in the global oceans. This study contributes to our understanding of the distribution and time evolution of phytoplankton size structure in the global oceans.

Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.

Future e(+)e(-) colliders' sensitivity to Hb(b)over-bar coupling and CP violation

A complete analysis of the sensitivity to new Hbb̄ couplings from the process e+e- → bb̄vv̄ at the next generation of linear colliders was performed. These new couplings were predicted by many extensions of the Standard Model. The results are comparable to the study performed previously where a global fit analysis for L=500 fb-1 and √s=500 GeV resulted in a relative accuracy of 2.2% in the gHbb Yukawa coupling.

Long-term ticagrelor monotherapy versus standard dual antiplatelet therapy followed by aspirin monotherapy in patients undergoing biolimus-eluting stent implantation: rationale and design of the GLOBAL LEADERS trial

AIMS The GLOBAL LEADERS trial is a superiority study in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, with a uniform use of Biolimus A9-eluting stents (BES) and bivalirudin. GLOBAL LEADERS was designed to assess whether a 24-month antithrombotic regimen with ticagrelor and one month of acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), compared to conventional dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), improves outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS Patients (n >16,000) are randomised (1:1 ratio) to ticagrelor 90 mg twice daily for 24 months plus ASA ≤100 mg for one month versus DAPT with either ticagrelor (acute coronary syndrome) or clopidogrel (stable coronary artery disease) for 12 months plus ASA ≤100 mg for 24 months. The primary outcome is a composite of all-cause mortality or non-fatal, new Q-wave myocardial infarction at 24 months. The key safety endpoint is investigator-reported class 3 or 5 bleeding according to the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) definitions. Sensitivity analysis will be carried out to explore potential differences in outcome across geographic regions and according to specific angiographic and clinical risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS The GLOBAL LEADERS trial aims to assess the role of ticagrelor as a single antiplatelet agent after a short course of DAPT for the long-term prevention of cardiac adverse events, across a wide spectrum of patients, following BES implantation.

Using global analysis, partial specifications, and an extensible assertion language for program validation and debugging

We discuss a framework for the application of abstract interpretation as an aid during program development, rather than in the more traditional application of program optimization. Program validation and detection of errors is first performed statically by comparing (partial) specifications written in terms of assertions against information obtained from (global) static analysis of the program. The results of this process are expressed in the user assertion language. Assertions (or parts of assertions) which cannot be checked statically are translated into run-time tests. The framework allows the use of assertions to be optional. It also allows using very general properties in assertions, beyond the predefined set understandable by the static analyzer and including properties defined by user programs. We also report briefly on an implementation of the framework. The resulting tool generates and checks assertions for Prolog, CLP(R), and CHIP/CLP(fd) programs, and integrates compile-time and run-time checking in a uniform way. The tool allows using properties such as types, modes, non-failure, determinacy, and computational cost, and can treat modules separately, performing incremental analysis.

Efficient numerical methods for global linear instability. Analysis and modeling of non-orthogonal swept attachment-line boundary layer flow

The aim of this thesis is to study the mechanisms of instability that occur in swept wings when the angle of attack increases. For this, a simplified model for the a simplified model for the non-orthogonal swept leading edge boundary layer has been used as well as different numerical techniques in order to solve the linear stability problem that describes the behavior of perturbations superposed upon this base flow. Two different approaches, matrix-free and matrix forming methods, have been validated using direct numerical simulations with spectral resolution. In this way, flow instability in the non-orthogonal swept attachment-line boundary layer is addressed in a linear analysis framework via the solution of the pertinent global (Bi-Global) PDE-based eigenvalue problem. Subsequently, a simple extension of the extended G¨ortler-H¨ammerlin ODEbased polynomial model proposed by Theofilis, Fedorov, Obrist & Dallmann (2003) for orthogonal flow, which includes previous models as particular cases and recovers global instability analysis results, is presented for non-orthogonal flow. Direct numerical simulations have been used to verify the stability results and unravel the limits of validity of the basic flow model analyzed. The effect of the angle of attack, AoA, on the critical conditions of the non-orthogonal problem has been documented; an increase of the angle of attack, from AoA = 0 (orthogonal flow) up to values close to _/2 which make the assumptions under which the basic flow is derived questionable, is found to systematically destabilize the flow. The critical conditions of non-orthogonal flows at 0 _ AoA _ _/2 are shown to be recoverable from those of orthogonal flow, via a simple analytical transformation involving AoA. These results can help to understand the mechanisms of destabilization that occurs in the attachment line of wings at finite angles of attack. Studies taking into account variations of the pressure field in the basic flow or the extension to compressible flows are issues that remain open. El objetivo de esta tesis es estudiar los mecanismos de la inestabilidad que se producen en ciertos dispositivos aerodinámicos cuando se aumenta el ángulo de ataque. Para ello se ha utilizado un modelo simplificado del flujo de base, así como diferentes técnicas numéricas, con el fin de resolver el problema de estabilidad lineal asociado que describe el comportamiento de las perturbaciones. Estos métodos; sin y con formación de matriz, se han validado utilizando simulaciones numéricas directas con resolución espectral. De esta manera, la inestabilidad del flujo de capa límite laminar oblicuo entorno a la línea de estancamiento se aborda en un marco de análisis lineal por medio del método Bi-Global de resolución del problema de valores propios en derivadas parciales. Posteriormente se propone una extensión simple para el flujo no-ortogonal del modelo polinomial de ecuaciones diferenciales ordinarias, G¨ortler-H¨ammerlin extendido, propuesto por Theofilis et al. (2003) para el flujo ortogonal, que incluye los modelos previos como casos particulares y recupera los resultados del analisis global de estabilidad lineal. Se han realizado simulaciones directas con el fin de verificar los resultados del análisis de estabilidad así como para investigar los límites de validez del modelo de flujo base utilizado. En este trabajo se ha documentado el efecto del ángulo de ataque AoA en las condiciones críticas del problema no ortogonal obteniendo que el incremento del ángulo de ataque, de AoA = 0 (flujo ortogonal) hasta valores próximos a _/2, en el cual las hipótesis sobre las que se basa el flujo base dejan de ser válidas, tiende sistemáticamente a desestabilizar el flujo. Las condiciones críticas del caso no ortogonal 0 _ AoA _ _/2 pueden recuperarse a partir del caso ortogonal mediante el uso de una transformación analítica simple que implica el ángulo de ataque AoA. Estos resultados pueden ayudar a comprender los mecanismos de desestabilización que se producen en el borde de ataque de las alas de los aviones a ángulos de ataque finitos. Como tareas pendientes quedaría realizar estudios que tengan en cuenta variaciones del campo de presión en el flujo base así como la extensión de éste al caso de flujos compresibles.

Analysis of noise temperature sensitivity for the design of a broadband thermal noise primary standard

A broadband primary standard for thermal noise measurements is presented and its thermal and electromagnetic behaviour is analysed by means of a novel hybrid analytical?numerical simulation methodology. The standard consists of a broadband termination connected to a 3.5mm coaxial airline partially immersed in liquid nitrogen and is designed in order to obtain a low reflectivity and a low uncertainty in the noise temperature. A detailed sensitivity analysis is made in order to highlight the critical characteristics that mostly affect the uncertainty in the noise temperature, and also to determine the manufacturing and operation tolerances for a proper performance in the range 10MHz to 26.5 GHz. Aspects such as the thermal bead design, the level of liquid nitrogen or the uncertainties associated with the temperatures, the physical properties of the materials in the standard and the simulation techniques are discussed.

Uncertainty Analysis in New Seismic Hazard Study of Spain Aimed at the Revision of the Spanish Building Code.

In this paper we present a global overview of the recent study carried out in Spain for the new hazard map, which final goal is the revision of the Building Code in our country (NCSE-02). The study was carried our for a working group joining experts from The Instituto Geografico Nacional (IGN) and the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) , being the different phases of the work supervised by an expert Committee integrated by national experts from public institutions involved in subject of seismic hazard. The PSHA method (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment) has been followed, quantifying the epistemic uncertainties through a logic tree and the aleatory ones linked to variability of parameters by means of probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations. In a first phase, the inputs have been prepared, which essentially are: 1) a project catalogue update and homogenization at Mw 2) proposal of zoning models and source characterization 3) calibration of Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPE’s) with actual data and development of a local model with data collected in Spain for Mw < 5.5. In a second phase, a sensitivity analysis of the different input options on hazard results has been carried out in order to have criteria for defining the branches of the logic tree and their weights. Finally, the hazard estimation was done with the logic tree shown in figure 1, including nodes for quantifying uncertainties corresponding to: 1) method for estimation of hazard (zoning and zoneless); 2) zoning models, 3) GMPE combinations used and 4) regression method for estimation of source parameters. In addition, the aleatory uncertainties corresponding to the magnitude of the events, recurrence parameters and maximum magnitude for each zone have been also considered including probability density functions and Monte Carlo simulations The main conclusions of the study are presented here, together with the obtained results in terms of PGA and other spectral accelerations SA (T) for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. The map of the coefficient of variation (COV) are also represented to give an idea of the zones where the dispersion among results are the highest and the zones where the results are robust.

On the role of global flow instability analysis in closed loop flow control

Control of linear flow instabilities has been demonstrated to be an effective theoretical flow control methodology, capable of modifying transitional flows on canonical geometries such as the plane channel and the flat-plate boundary layer. Extending the well-developed theoretical flow control techniques to flows over or through complex geometries requires addressing the issue of efficient capturing of the leading members of the global eigenspectrum pertinent to such flows. The present contribution describes state-of-the-art modal global instability analysis methodologies recently developed in our group, based on matrix formation and time-stepping, respectively. The relative performance of these algorithms is assessed on the recovery of BiGlobal and TriGlobal eigenspectra in the spanwise periodic and the cubic lid-driven cavity, respectively; the adjoint eigenspectrum in the latter flow is recovered for the first time. For three-dimensional flows without any homogeneous spatial direction, the time-stepping methodology was found to outperform the matrix-forming approach and permit recovering the leading TriGlobal eigenmodes in an three-dimensional open cavity of aspect ratio L : D : W = 5 : 1 : 1; theoretical flow control of this configuration is underway.