Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models are increasing in complexity and incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them important tools for studying the global carbon cycle. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes, with coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulating total land carbon stores by 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous model evaluation methodologies. Here we assess the state-of-the-art with respect to evaluation of Earth system models, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeo data and (ii) metrics for evaluation, and discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute towards the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but it is also a challenge, as more knowledge about data uncertainties is required in order to determine robust evaluation methodologies that move the field of ESM evaluation from "beauty contest" toward the development of useful constraints on model behaviour.

Evaluation of optical techniques for characterising soil organic matter quality in agricultural soils

Soil organic matter (SOM) is one of the main global carbon pools. It is a measure of soil quality as its presence increases carbon sequestration and improves physical and chemical soil properties. The determination and characterisation of humic substances gives essential information of the maturity and stresses of soils as well as of their health. However, the determination of the exact nature and molecular structure of these substances has been proven difficult. Several complex techniques exist to characterise SOM and mineralisation and humification processes. One of the more widely accepted for its accuracy is nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Despite its efficacy, NMR needs significant economic resources, equipment, material and time. Proxy measures like the fluorescence index (FI), cold and hot-water extractable carbon (CWC and HWC) and SUVA-254 have the potential to characterise SOM and, in combination, provide qualitative and quantitative data of SOM and its processes. Spanish and British agricultural cambisols were used to measure SOM quality and determine whether similarities were found between optical techniques and 1H NMR results in these two regions with contrasting climatic conditions. High correlations (p < 0.001) were found between the specific aromatic fraction measured with 1H NMR and SUVA-254 (Rs = 0.95) and HWC (Rs = 0.90), which could be described using a linear model. A high correlation between FI and the aromatics fraction measured with 1H NMR (Rs = −0.976) was also observed. In view of our results, optical measures have a potential, in combination, to predict the aromatic fraction of SOM without the need of expensive and time consuming techniques.

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.

Developing an integrated approach to understanding the effects of climate change and other environmental alterations at a flyway level

The environmental consequences of global climate change are predicted to have their greatest effect at high latitudes and have great potential to impact fragile tundra ecosystems. The Arctic tundra is a vast biodiversity resource and provides breeding areas for many migratory geese. Importantly, tundra ecosystems also currently act as a global carbon “sink”, buffering carbon emissions from human activities. In January 2003, a new three year project was implemented to understand and model the interrelationships between goose population dynamics, conservation, European land use/agriculture and climate change. A range of potential future climate and land-use scenarios will be applied to the models and combined with information from field experiments on grazing and climate change in the Arctic. This paper describes the content of the research programme as well as issues in relation to engaging stakeholders with the project.

Influência da matéria orgânica dissolvida alóctone e autóctone sobre o balanço de carbono em sistemas aquáticos: um experimento em mesocosmos

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Variabilidade temporal e meridional de estimativas de Satélite da concentração de clorofila superficial na plataforma continental brasileira

Forecast of biological consequences of climate changes depend on both long-term observations and the establishment of carbon budgets within pelagic ecosystems, including the assessment of biomasses and activities of all players in the global carbon cycle. Approximately 25% of oceanic primary happen over continental shelves, so these are important sites for studies of global carbon dynamics. The Brazilian Continental Shelf (BCS) has sparse and non-systematic in situ information on phytoplankton biomass, making products derived from ocean color remote sensing extremely valuable. This work analyzes chlorophyll concentration (Chl) estimated from four ocean color sensors (CZCS, OCTS, SeaWiFS and MODIS) over the BCS, to compare Chl and annual cycles meridionally. Also, useful complementary ocean color variables are presented. Chl gradients increased from the central region towards north and south, limited by estuarine plumes of Amazon and La Plata rivers, and clear annual Chl cycles appear in most areas. In southern and central areas, annual cycles show strong seasonal variability while interannual and long-term variability are equally important in the remaining areas. This is the first comparative evaluation of the Chl over the BCS and will aid the understanding of its long-term variability; essential initial step for discussions of climate changes.

Dinámica del suelo y estoque de carbono después de diez años de la restauración de tierras degradadas usando especies arbóreas del bosque atlántico

Brazil's Atlantic Forest ecosystem has been greatly affected by land use changes, with only 11.26% of its original vegetation cover remaining. Currently, Atlantic Forest restoration is receiving increasing attention because of its potential for carbon sequestration and the important role of soil carbon in the global carbon balance. Soil organic matter is also essential for physical, chemical and biological components of soil fertility and forest sustainability. This study evaluated the potential for soil recovery in contrasting restoration models using indigenous Atlantic Forest tree species ten years after their establishment. The study site is located in Botucatu municipality, São Paulo State-Brazil, in a loamy dystrophic Red-Yellow Argisol site (Typic Hapludult). Four treatments were compared: i) Control (Spontaneous Restoration); ii) Low Diversity (five fast-growing tree species established by direct seeding); iii) High Diversity (mixed plantings of 41 species established with seedlings) and; iv) Native Forest (well conserved neighboring forest fragment). The following soil properties were evaluated: (1) physical-texture, density and porosity; (2) chemical-C, N, P, S, K, Ca, Mg, Al and pH; (3) biological-microbial biomass. Litter nutrient concentrations (P, S, K, Ca and Mg) and C and N litter stocks were determined. Within ten years the litter C and N stocks of the Low Diversity treatment area were higher than Control and similar to those in both the High Diversity treatment and the Native Forest. Soil C stocks increased through time for both models and in the Control plots, but remained highest in the Native Forest. The methods of restoration were shown to have different effects on soil dynamics, mainly on chemical properties. These results show that, at least in the short-term, changes in soil properties are more rapid in a less complex system like the Low Diversity model than in the a High Species Diversity model. For both mixed plantation systems, carbon soil cycling can be reestablished, resulting in increases in carbon stocks in both soil and litter.

Quantification of uncertainties associated with space-time estimates of short-term soil CO2 emissions in a sugar cane area

The characterization of soil CO2 emissions (FCO2) is important for the study of the global carbon cycle. This phenomenon presents great variability in space and time, a characteristic that makes attempts at modeling and forecasting FCO2 challenging. Although spatial estimates have been performed in several studies, the association of these estimates with the uncertainties inherent in the estimation procedures is not considered. This study aimed to evaluate the local, spatial, local-temporal and spatial-temporal uncertainties of short-term FCO2 after harvest period in a sugar cane area. The FCO2 was featured in a sampling grid of 60m×60m containing 127 points with minimum separation distances from 0.5 to 10m between points. The FCO2 was evaluated 7 times within a total period of 10 days. The variability of FCO2 was described by descriptive statistics and variogram modeling. To calculate the uncertainties, 300 realizations made by sequential Gaussian simulation were considered. Local uncertainties were evaluated using the probability values exceeding certain critical thresholds, while the spatial uncertainties considering the probability of regions with high probability values together exceed the adopted limits. Using the daily uncertainties, the local-spatial and spatial-temporal uncertainty (Ftemp) was obtained. The daily and mean emissions showed a variability structure that was described by spherical and Gaussian models. The differences between the daily maps were related to variations in the magnitude of FCO2, covering mean values ranging from 1.28±0.11μmolm-2s-1 (F197) to 1.82±0.07μmolm-2s-1 (F195). The Ftemp showed low spatial uncertainty coupled with high local uncertainty estimates. The average emission showed great spatial uncertainty of the simulated values. The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the knowledge of temporal and spatial variability is an important tool for understanding many phenomena over time, such as the quantification of greenhouse gases or the identification of areas with high crop productivity. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Active mesopelagic prokaryotes support high respiration in the subtropical northeast Atlantic Ocean

[EN]Here we provide evidence, based on prokaryote metabolic proxies and direct estimates of oxygen consumption, that the mesopelagic prokaryote assemblage in the subtropical Northeast Atlantic is an active one. It supports a high respiration (0.22 ± 0.05 μmol O2 l−1 d−1, corresponding to 68 ± 8 mmol CO2 m−2 d−1), comparable to that of the epipelagic zone during the same period (64–97 mmol C m−2 d−1). Our findings suggest that mesopelagic prokaryotes in the NE subtropical Ocean, as well as in other eastern boundary regions, are important carbon sinks for organic matter advected from the highly productive coastal systems, and would play a key role in the global carbon cycle of the oceans.

Relationship between respiration and Electron Transfer System (ETS) in zooplankton

[EN]Respiration of zooplanktonic organisms is an significant fraction of the global carbon cycle. However, it estimation in order to obtain the data required in oceanography is still a problem. In this work, we studied respiration rates in laboratory and field experiments. Laboratory experiments using Daphnia spp. showed a significant decrease of respiration rates during starvation. In addition, we measured the gut fluorescence and enzymatic activity (electron transfer system, ETS). The former did not show the expected decrease probably due to the volume of the incubators. The relationship between respiration and ETS presented the classical variability ranging between 0.5 and 1 as observed in previous works. Copepod respiration rates were measured during RAPROCAN 1504 cruise around the Canary Islands.

Modelling coupled physical-biogeochemical processes in ice-covered oceans

The last decades have seen a large effort of the scientific community to study and understand the physics of sea ice. We currently have a wide - even though still not exhaustive - knowledge of the sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics and of their temporal and spatial variability. Sea ice biogeochemistry is instead largely unknown. Sea ice algae production may account for up to 25% of overall primary production in ice-covered waters of the Southern Ocean. However, the influence of physical factors, such as the location of ice formation, the role of snow cover and light availability on sea ice primary production is poorly understood. There are only sparse localized observations and little knowledge of the functioning of sea ice biogeochemistry at larger scales. Modelling becomes then an auxiliary tool to help qualifying and quantifying the role of sea ice biogeochemistry in the ocean dynamics. In this thesis, a novel approach is used for the modelling and coupling of sea ice biogeochemistry - and in particular its primary production - to sea ice physics. Previous attempts were based on the coupling of rather complex sea ice physical models to empirical or relatively simple biological or biogeochemical models. The focus is moved here to a more biologically-oriented point of view. A simple, however comprehensive, physical model of the sea ice thermodynamics (ESIM) was developed and coupled to a novel sea ice implementation (BFM-SI) of the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM). The BFM is a comprehensive model, largely used and validated in the open ocean environment and in regional seas. The physical model has been developed having in mind the biogeochemical properties of sea ice and the physical inputs required to model sea ice biogeochemistry. The central concept of the coupling is the modelling of the Biologically-Active-Layer (BAL), which is the time-varying fraction of sea ice that is continuously connected to the ocean via brines pockets and channels and it acts as rich habitat for many microorganisms. The physical model provides the key physical properties of the BAL (e.g., brines volume, temperature and salinity), and the BFM-SI simulates the physiological and ecological response of the biological community to the physical enviroment. The new biogeochemical model is also coupled to the pelagic BFM through the exchange of organic and inorganic matter at the boundaries between the two systems . This is done by computing the entrapment of matter and gases when sea ice grows and release to the ocean when sea ice melts to ensure mass conservation. The model was tested in different ice-covered regions of the world ocean to test the generality of the parameterizations. The focus was particularly on the regions of landfast ice, where primary production is generally large. The implementation of the BFM in sea ice and the coupling structure in General Circulation Models will add a new component to the latters (and in general to Earth System Models), which will be able to provide adequate estimate of the role and importance of sea ice biogeochemistry in the global carbon cycle.

Species specific nitrogen isotope analysis by NanoSIMS

Der atmosphärische Kreislauf reaktiver Stickstoffverbindungen beschäftigt sowohl die Naturwissenschaftler als auch die Politik. Dies ist insbesondere darauf zurückzuführen, dass reaktive Stickoxide die Bildung von bodennahem Ozon kontrollieren. Reaktive Stickstoffverbindungen spielen darüber hinaus als gasförmige Vorläufer von Feinstaubpartikeln eine wichtige Rolle und der Transport von reaktivem Stickstoff über lange Distanzen verändert den biogeochemischen Kohlenstoffkreislauf des Planeten, indem er entlegene Ökosysteme mit Stickstoff düngt. Die Messungen von stabilen Stickstoffisotopenverhältnissen (15N/14N) bietet ein Hilfsmittel, welches es erlaubt, die Quellen von reaktiven Stickstoffverbindungen zu identifizieren und die am Stickstoffkeislauf beteiligten Reaktionen mithilfe ihrer reaktionsspezifischen Isotopenfraktionierung genauer zu untersuchen. rnIn dieser Doktorarbeit demonstriere ich, dass es möglich ist, mit Hilfe von Nano-Sekundärionenmassenspektrometrie (NanoSIMS) verschiedene stickstoffhaltige Verbindungen, die üblicherweise in atmosphärischen Feinstaubpartikeln vorkommen, mit einer räumlichen Auflösung von weniger als einem Mikrometer zu analysieren und zu identifizieren. Die Unterscheidung verschiedener stickstoffhaltiger Verbindungen erfolgt anhand der relativen Signalintensitäten der positiven und negativen Sekundärionensignale, die beobachtet werden, wenn die Feinstaubproben mit einem Cs+ oder O- Primärionenstrahl beschossen werden. Die Feinstaubproben können direkt auf dem Probenahmesubstrat in das Massenspektrometer eingeführt werden, ohne chemisch oder physikalisch aufbereited zu werden. Die Methode wurde Mithilfe von Nitrat, Nitrit, Ammoniumsulfat, Harnstoff, Aminosären, biologischen Feinstaubproben (Pilzsporen) und Imidazol getestet. Ich habe gezeigt, dass NO2 Sekundärionen nur beim Beschuss von Nitrat und Nitrit (Salzen) mit positiven Primärionen entstehen, während NH4+ Sekundärionen nur beim Beschuss von Aminosäuren, Harnstoff und Ammoniumsalzen mit positiven Primärionen freigesetzt werden, nicht aber beim Beschuss biologischer Proben wie z.B. Pilzsporen. CN- Sekundärionen werden beim Beschuss aller stickstoffhaltigen Verbindungen mit positiven Primärionen beobachtet, da fast alle Proben oberflächennah mit Kohlenstoffspuren kontaminiert sind. Die relative Signalintensität der CN- Sekundärionen ist bei kohlenstoffhaltigen organischen Stickstoffverbindungen am höchsten.rnDarüber hinaus habe ich gezeigt, dass an reinen Nitratsalzproben (NaNO3 und KNO3), welche auf Goldfolien aufgebracht wurden speziesspezifische stabile Stickstoffisotopenverhältnisse mithilfe des 15N16O2- / 14N16O2- - Sekundärionenverhältnisses genau und richtig gemessen werden können. Die Messgenauigkeit auf Feldern mit einer Rastergröße von 5×5 µm2 wurde anhand von Langzeitmessungen an einem hausinternen NaNO3 Standard als ± 0.6 ‰ bestimmt. Die Differenz der matrixspezifischen instrumentellen Massenfraktionierung zwischen NaNO3 und KNO3 betrug 7.1 ± 0.9 ‰. 23Na12C2- Sekundärionen können eine ernst zu nehmende Interferenz darstellen wenn 15N16O2- Sekundärionen zur Messung des nitratspezifischen schweren Stickstoffs eingesetzt werden sollen und Natrium und Kohlenstoff im selben Feinstaubpartikel als interne Mischung vorliegt oder die natriumhaltige Probe auf einem kohlenstoffhaltigen Substrat abgelegt wurde. Selbst wenn, wie im Fall von KNO3, keine derartige Interferenz vorliegt, führt eine interne Mischung mit Kohlenstoff im selben Feinstaubpartikel zu einer matrixspezifischen instrumentellen Massenfraktionierung die mit der folgenden Gleichung beschrieben werden kann: 15Nbias = (101 ± 4) ∙ f − (101 ± 3) ‰, mit f = 14N16O2- / (14N16O2- + 12C14N-). rnWird das 12C15N- / 12C14N- Sekundärionenverhältnis zur Messung der stabilen Stickstoffisotopenzusammensetzung verwendet, beeinflusst die Probematrix die Messungsergebnisse nicht, auch wenn Stickstoff und Kohlenstoff in den Feinstaubpartikeln in variablen N/C–Verhältnissen vorliegen. Auch Interferenzen spielen keine Rolle. Um sicherzustellen, dass die Messung weiterhin spezifisch auf Nitratspezies eingeschränkt bleibt, kann eine 14N16O2- Maske bei der Datenauswertung verwendet werden. Werden die Proben auf einem kohlenstoffhaltigen, stickstofffreien Probennahmesubstrat gesammelt, erhöht dies die Signalintensität für reine Nitrat-Feinstaubpartikel.

An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

Ocean acidification limits temperature-induced poleward expansion of coral habitats around Japan

Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of coral habitats is classified on the basis of the currently observed regional ranges for temperature and saturation states with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that, under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats are projected to expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between regions where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and regions where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the habitat suitable for tropical/subtropical corals around Japan may be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The habitat suitable for the temperate coral communities is also projected to decrease, although at a less pronounced rate, due to the higher tolerance of temperate corals for low Ωarag. Our study has two important caveats: first, it does not consider the potential adaptation of the coral communities, which would permit them to colonize habitats that are outside their current range. Second, it also does not consider whether or not coral communities can migrate quickly enough to actually occupy newly emerging habitats. As such, our results serve as a baseline for the assessment of the future evolution of coral habitats, but the consideration of important biological and ecological factors and feedbacks will be required to make more accurate projections.

Warming alters photosynthetic rates of sub-boreal peatland vegetation

Boreal peatlands are important in the global carbon cycle. Despite covering only 3% of the global land area, peatlands store approximately one third of all soil carbon. Temperature is one of the major drivers in peatland carbon cycling as it affects both plant production and CO2 fluxes from soils. However, it is relatively unknown how boreal peatland plant photosynthesis is affected by higher temperatures. Therefore, we measured plant photosynthetic rates under two different warming treatments in a poor fen in Northern Michigan. Eighteen plots were established that were divided into three treatments: control, open-top chamber (OTC) warming and infrared (IR) lamp warming. Previous work at this site has shown that there was a significant increase in canopy and peat temperature with IR warming (5°C and 1.4°C respectively), while the OTC’s had mixed overall warming. Plots were divided equally into lawns and hummocks. We measured mid-day carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake on sedges (Carex utriculata), shrubs (Chamaedaphne calyculata) and Sphagnum mosses. Sphagnum moss net primary production (NPP) was also measured with cranked wires and compared with CO2 uptake. Our results indicate that there was no significant difference in sedge CO2 uptake, while shrub CO2 uptake significantly decreased with warming. A significant increase occurred in Sphagnum moss gross ecosystem production (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Contrary to the positive CO2 exchange of Sphagnum, overall NPP decreased significantly in hummocks with both warming treatments. The results of the study indicate that temperature partly limits the photosynthetic capacity of plants in sub-boreal peatlands, but not all species respond similarly to higher temperatures.