Quasi-experimental estimates of fiscal spillovers and spatial interactions among Brazilian cities

Nós usamos a metodologia de Regressões em Descontinuidade (RDD) para estimar o efeito causal do Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM) recebido por um município sobre características dos municípios vizinhos, considerando uma variedade de temas: finanças públicas, educação, saúde e resultados eleitorais. Nós exploramos a regra que gera uma variação exógena da transferência em munícipios próximos às descontinuidades no repasse do fundo de acordo com faixas de população. Nossa principal contribuição é estimar separadamente e em conjunto o efeito spillover e o efeito direto do FPM, considerando ambos municípios vizinhos ou apenas um deles próximos às mudanças de faixa. Dessa forma, conseguimos entender melhor a interação entre municípios vizinhos quando há uma correlação na probabilidade de receber uma transferência federal. Nós mostramos que a estimativa do efeito direto do FPM sobre os gastos locais diminui em cerca de 20% quando controlamos pelo spillover do vizinho, que em geral é positivo, com exceção dos gastos em saúde e saneamento. Nós estimamos um efeito positivo da transferência sobre notas na prova Brasil e taxas de aprovação escolares em municípios vizinhos e na rede estadual do ensino fundamental. Por outro lado, o recebimento de FPM por municípios vizinhos de pequena população reduz o provimento de bens e serviços de saúde em cidades próximas e maiores, o que pode ocorrer devido à redução da demanda por serviços de saúde. A piora de alguns indicadores globais de saúde é um indício, no entanto, de que podem existir problemas de coordenação para os prefeitos reterem seus gastos em saúde. De fato, quando controlamos pela margem de vitória nas eleições municipais e consideramos apenas cidades vizinhas com prefeitos de partido diferentes, o efeito spillover é maior em magnitude, o que indica que incentivos políticos são importantes para explicar a subprovisão de serviços em saúde, por um lado, e o aumento da provisão de bens em educação, por outro. Nós também constatamos um efeito positivo do FPM sobre votos para o partido do governo federal nas eleições municipais e nacionais, e grande parte desse efeito é explicado pelo spillover do FPM de cidades vizinhas, mostrando que cidades com dependência econômica do governo federal se tornam a base de sustentação e apoio político desse governo. Por fim, nós encontramos um efeito ambíguo do aumento de receita devido ao FPM sobre a competição eleitoral nas eleições municipais, com uma queda da margem de vitória do primeiro colocado e uma redução do número de candidatos, o que pode ser explicado pelo aumento do custo fixo das campanhas locais.

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimating abundance and spatial distribution patterns of the bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata (Crustacea : Brachyura)

The bubble crab Dotilla fenestrata forms very dense populations on the sand flats of the eastern coast of Inhaca Island, Mozambique, making it an interesting biological model to examine spatial distribution patterns and test the relative efficiency of common sampling methods. Due to its apparent ecological importance within the sandy intertidal community, understanding the factors ruling the dynamics of Dotilla populations is also a key issue. In this study, different techniques of estimating crab density are described, and the trends of spatial distribution of the different population categories are shown. The studied populations are arranged in discrete patches located at the well-drained crests of nearly parallel mega sand ripples. For a given sample size, there was an obvious gain in precision by using a stratified random sampling technique, considering discrete patches as strata, compared to the simple random design. Density average and variance differed considerably among patches since juveniles and ovigerous females were found clumped, with higher densities at the lower and upper shore levels, respectively. Burrow counting was found to be an adequate method for large-scale sampling, although consistently underestimating actual crab density by nearly half. Regression analyses suggested that crabs smaller than 2.9 mm carapace width tend to be undetected in visual burrow counts. A visual survey of sampling plots over several patches of a large Dotilla population showed that crab density varied in an interesting oscillating pattern, apparently following the topography of the sand flat. Patches extending to the lower shore contained higher densities than those mostly covering the higher shore. Within-patch density variability also pointed to the same trend, but the density increment towards the lowest shore level varied greatly among the patches compared.

Terrain forms and spatial variability of soil properties in an area cultivatedwith citrus

A técnica de agricultura de precisão e a relação solo-paisagem permitem delimitar áreas para o manejo localizado, o que permite a aplicação localizada de insumos agrícolas e, consequentemente, pode contribuir para a preservação de recursos naturais. Portanto, o objetivo deste trabalho foi caracterizar a variabilidade espacial das propriedades químicas e do teor de argila, no contexto da relação solo-paisagem, em um Latossolo sob cultivo de citros. Amostras de solo foram coletadas na profundidade de 0,0-0,2 m, em uma área de 83,5 ha cultivada com citros, na forma de malha, com intervalos regulares de 50 m, com 129 pontos na forma de relevo côncava e 206 pontos na forma plana, totalizando 335 pontos. Os valores obtidos para as variáveis que expressam as propriedades químicas e para o teor de argila do solo foram submetidos à análise estatística descritiva e geoestatística com a modelagem de semivariogramas para a confecção de mapas de krigagem. Os valores de alcance e mapas de krigagem indicaram maiores variabilidades na forma de relevo côncava (segmento topo), quando comparada com a forma plana (segmentos meia encosta e encosta inferior). A identificação de diferentes formas de relevo mostrou-se eficiente no entendimento da variabilidade espacial das propriedades químicas e do teor de argila do solo sob cultivo de citros.

Soil sampling intensity and spatial distribution pattern of soils attributes and corn yield in no-tillage system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Annual, seasonal and spatial variation of abundance of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris (Decapoda : Penaeoidea) in south-eastern Brazil

The influence of several environmental factors oil the abundance and spatial-temporal distribution of the shrimp Artemesia longinaris were investigated from January 1998 to December 1999 in the Ubatuba region of São Paulo State, Brazil. Collections were performed monthly in the bays of Ubatumirim (UBM), Ubatuba (UBA) and Mar Virado (MV). Six sampling transects were estabilshed in each bay, four were parallel to the shore line, and two were next to the rocky shores. A commercial shrimp fishing boat equipped with two 'double-rig' nets was used. A total of 11,503 individuals was collected, including 1633 from UBM, 6344 from UBA and 3526 from MV the majority of the captured specimens came from the deeper areas (15 to 20 m) with high salinity (34 to 36 ppt). The highest abundance of A. longinaris in Ubatuba bay was recorded in areas where fine and very fine sand comprised more than 70% of the sediment. Moreover, the abundance of A. longinaris followed a seasonal trend, being higher during the summer, when intrusions of cold South Atlantic Coastal Waters (SACW) are frequent. Thus, type of sediment, temperature and salinity are determinant factors in the distribution of A. longinaris in the studied region.

Temporal and spatial variability in the macrozoobenthic community along a salinity gradient in the Castillos Lagoon (Uruguay)

The macrozoobenthic community of the Castillos Lagoon system (East Coast of Uruguay) was sampled during autumn, winter, spring and summer of 1991, in order to describe the community structure and the spatial and temporal patterns of distribution. Eleven sampling stations were distributed along a salinity gradient in a north-south direction (8 replicates were collected at each station). The maximum density of organisms was found at the central part of the lagoon (stations 6 and 7) where the bivalve Erodona mactroides and gastropod Heleobia australis were dominants. No significant correlation between the overall abundance of organisms and salinity could be demonstrated (r = 0.43, p > 0.1). However, a reduction in organism abundance between the autumn and the summer coincided with a marked drop in salinity. Falling levels of dissolved oxygen could have influenced the decreasing density of organisms (r = 0.75, p < 0.05). Species richness and diversity were correlated (p < 0.1) with salinity but the degree of correlation was not uniformly significant between sampling periods.

Species composition and spatial distribution of a stream fish assemblage in the east coast of Brazil: comparison of two field study methodologies

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Seed dispersal and spatial distribution of Attalea geraensis (Arecaceae) in two remnants of Cerrado in Southeastern Brazil

The seed dispersal system of Attalea geraensis (Arecaceae), an acaulescent palm, was investigated during one year in two Cerrado fragments in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil. A. geraensis had inflorescences and infrutescences throughout the year. Two scatter-hoarding rodents (the spiny rat, Clyomys bishopi and agoutis, Dasyptocta azarae) were identified as seed predators/dispersers, able to move seeds up to 30 in from the palms, although most of the fruits (57.5%) were dispersed less than 2 in. The removal rates were high and after 20 days, 97.2% of the fruits were removed. Fruit fate was not related to fruit mass, length and diameter. The application of Morisita's index showed a more clumped distribution of adults in the smaller fragment, probably because of the absence of agoutis. Higher seed removal by rodents in the large Cerrado remnant may decrease seed predation by beetles. (C) 2007 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Phenology, sex ratio, and spatial distribution among dioecious species of Trichilia (Meliaceae)

The flowering, sex ratio, and spatial distribution of four dioecious species of Trichilia (Meliaceae) were studied in a semi-deciduous forest in southeastern Brazil. All reproductive trees (T. clausseni, T. pallida and T. catigua) with dbh greater than or equal to5 cm within a 1-ha plot were collected, sexed, mapped and, for individuals of each species, the distances to the nearest neighbour of the same and opposite sex were measured. For the shrub species T elegans (dbh <5 cm), all reproductive individuals were sampled randomly in 10 samples of 10 x 10 m. The reproductive phenology was observed at weekly to monthly intervals from May 1988 to January 1990. The species are strictly dioecious, did not present any sex-mixed trees or sex switching during the study, and sex ratio did not differ significantly from 1:1. The size distributions and the relative size variation were not significantly different. between sexes. There was no significant segregation or clumping between individuals of either sex and no fruit production without pollination. Onset of flowering and flowering peak were synchronous between male and female plants for all species studied. Flower synchrony was related to outcrossing and pollinator attraction rather than climatic factors.

Density and Spatial Distribution of Buffy-tufted-ear Marmosets (Callithrix aurita) in a Continuous Atlantic Forest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diet and Spatial Pattern of Foraging in Ectatomma opaciventre (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in an Anthropic Area

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Identification of Landslide Scars in the Region of the Serra do Mar, São Paulo State, Brazil, Using Digital Image Processing and Spatial Analysis Tools

The objective of the present study, developed in a mountainous region in Brazil where many landslides occur, is to present a method for detecting landslide scars that couples image processing techniques with spatial analysis tools. An IKONOS image was initially segmented, and then classified through a Batthacharrya classifier, with an acceptance limit of 99%, resulting in 216 polygons identified with a spectral response similar to landslide scars. After making use of some spatial analysis tools that took into account a susceptibility map, a map of local drainage channels and highways, and the maximum expected size of scars in the study area, some features misinterpreted as scars were excluded. The 43 resulting features were then compared with visually interpreted landslide scars and field observations. The proposed method can be reproduced and enhanced by adding filtering criteria and was able to find new scars on the image, with a final error rate of 2.3%.

Seasonal and spatial species richness variation of dung beetle (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae s. str.) in the Atlantic Forest of southeastern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Prediction and spatial variability of soil dynamic properties in sugar cane fields of São Paulo State Brazil

The objective of this work was to model and diagnose the spatial variability of soil load support capacity (SLSC) in sugar cane crop fields, as well as to evaluate the management impact on São Paulo State soil structure. The investigated variables were: pressure preconsolidation (sigma(p)), apparent cohesion () and internal friction angle (). The conclusions from the results were that the models and spatial dependence maps constitute important tools in the prediction and location of the mechanical internal strength of soils cultivated with sugar cane. They will help future soil management decisions so that soil structure sustainability will not be compromised.