Mid-late Holocene monsoon climate retrieved from seasonal Sr/Ca and delta O-18 records of Porites lutea corals at Leizhou Peninsula, northern coast of South China Sea

South China Sea (SCS) is a major moisture source region, providing summer monsoon rainfall throughout Mainland China, which accounts for more than 80% total precipitation in the region. We report seasonal to monthly resolution Sr/Ca and delta(18)O data for five Holocene and one modem Porites corals, each covering a growth history of 9-13 years. The results reveal a general decreasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in the SCS from similar to 6800 to 1500 years ago, despite shorter climatic cycles. Compared with the mean Sr/Ca-SST in the 1990s (24.8 degrees C), 10-year mean Sr/Ca-SSTs were 0.9-0.5 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 thousand years before present (ky BP), dropped to the present level by similar to 2.5 ky BP, and reached a low of 22.6 degrees C (2.2 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. The summer Sr/Ca-SST maxima, which are more reliable due to faster summer-time growth rates and higher sampling resolution, follow the same trend, i.e. being 1-2 degrees C higher between 6.8 and 5.0 ky BP, dropping to the present level by -2.5 ky BP, and reaching a low of 28.7 degrees C (0.7 degrees C lower) by similar to 1.5 ky BP. Such a decline in SST is accompanied by a similar decrease in the amount of monsoon moisture transported out of South China Sea, resulting in a general decrease in the seawater delta(18)O values, reflected by offsets of mean 6 180 relative to that in the 1990s. This observation is consistent with general weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon since early Holocene, in response to a continuous decline in solar radiation, which was also found in pollen, lake-level and loess/paleosol records throughout Mainland China. The climatic conditions similar to 2.5 and similar to 1.5 ky ago were also recorded in Chinese history. In contrast with the general cooling trend of the monsoon climate in East Asia, SST increased dramatically in recent time, with that in the 1990s being 2.2 degrees C warmer than that similar to 1.5 ky ago. This clearly indicates that the increase in the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases played a dominant role in recent global warming, which reversed the natural climatic trend in East Asian monsoon regime. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Niveo-eolian Sediment Deposits in Coastal South Victoria Land, Antarctica: Indicators of Regional Variability in Weather and Climate

A 35 year chronology from 1965 to 2000 of the deposition of wind-blown sediment is constructed from snowpits for coastal southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. Analysis of local meteorology, contemporary eolian sedimentation, and mineralogy confirm a Victoria Valley provenance, while the presence of volcanic tephra is ascribed to an Erebus volcanic province source. Winter foelm winds associated with anticyclonic circulation are considered responsible for transporting fine-grained sediment from the snow- and ice-free Victoria Valley east toward the coast, while cyclonic storms transport tephra north along the Scott Coast. No trend could be identified in the occurrence of either tephra or wind-blown sediments sourced from the Victoria Valley and retrieved from the snowpits; excavated on the Victoria Lower and Wilson Piedmont Glaciers. We infer this to indicate that the region has not undergone a significant change in weather patterns for at least the last 35 years. Our results also confirm the McMurdo Dry Valleys as a regionally significant source of wind-blown sediment.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) using 36 parameters of REMO regional climate data-set, ArcGIS geographic information software, and periods of 1961-1990 (reference period), 2011-2040, and 2041-2070. The disadvantages of this relatively simple climate envelope modeling (CEM) approach are then discussed and several ways of model improvement are suggested. Some statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) methods (logistic regression, cluster analysis and other clustering methods, decision tree, evolutionary algorithm, artificial neural network) are able to provide development of the model. Among them artificial neural networks (ANN) seems to be the most suitable algorithm for this purpose, which provides a black box method for distribution modeling.

Socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change in South Florida

Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation. ^ This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach's storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise. ^ The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.^

Climate changes, lead pollution and soil erosion in south Greenland over the past 700 years

Date of Acceptance: 05/06/2015 This research was made possible through funding provided by the Leverhulme Trust, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Project CGL2010–20672) and Xunta de Galicia (grants R2014/001 and GPC2014/009). N Silva-Sánchez is currently supported by a FPU pre-doctoral grant (AP2010–3264) funded by the Spanish Government. Kirsty Golding, Andy McMullen, and Ian Simpson are thanked for their assistance with fieldwork. Alison Sandison produced the maps. Pete Langdon and two anonymous referees are thanked for comments that helped to improve the paper.

Climate changes, lead pollution and soil erosion in south Greenland over the past 700 years

Date of Acceptance: 05/06/2015 This research was made possible through funding provided by the Leverhulme Trust, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Project CGL2010–20672) and Xunta de Galicia (grants R2014/001 and GPC2014/009). N Silva-Sánchez is currently supported by a FPU pre-doctoral grant (AP2010–3264) funded by the Spanish Government. Kirsty Golding, Andy McMullen, and Ian Simpson are thanked for their assistance with fieldwork. Alison Sandison produced the maps. Pete Langdon and two anonymous referees are thanked for comments that helped to improve the paper.

Influence of climate change and human activities on the organic and inorganic composition of peat during the Little Ice Age (El Payo mire, W Spain)

Acknowledgements This work was funded by the projects HAR2013-43701-P (Spanish Economy and Competitiveness Ministry) and CGL2010-20672 (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation). This research was also partially developed with Xunta de Galicia funding (grants R2014/001 and GPC2014/009). N. Silva-Sánchez is currently supported by a FPU pre-doctoral grant (AP2010-3264) funded by the Spanish Government. We are grateful to Ana Moreno, Mariano Barriendos and Gerardo Benito who kindly provide us data included in Figure 5a. We also want to thank constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers.

Perceptions of practitioners : Managing marine protected areas for climate change resilience

Acknowledgements This research was supported and funded by ClimateXChange. ClimateXChange is a collaborative initiative between Scottish research and higher education institutes and is funded by the Scottish Government. The authors would like to thank all the participants who agreed to be interviewed for this study. Ethics approval number 2013001 from University of Glasgow.

Climate changes, lead pollution and soil erosion in south Greenland over the past 700 years

Date of Acceptance: 05/06/2015 This research was made possible through funding provided by the Leverhulme Trust, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (Project CGL2010–20672) and Xunta de Galicia (grants R2014/001 and GPC2014/009). N Silva-Sánchez is currently supported by a FPU pre-doctoral grant (AP2010–3264) funded by the Spanish Government. Kirsty Golding, Andy McMullen, and Ian Simpson are thanked for their assistance with fieldwork. Alison Sandison produced the maps. Pete Langdon and two anonymous referees are thanked for comments that helped to improve the paper.

Influence of climate change and human activities on the organic and inorganic composition of peat during the ‘Little Ice Age’ (El Payo mire, W Spain)

Acknowledgements This work was funded by the projects HAR2013-43701-P (Spanish Economy and Competitiveness Ministry) and CGL2010-20672 (Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation). This research was also partially developed with Xunta de Galicia funding (grants R2014/001 and GPC2014/009). N. Silva-Sánchez is currently supported by a FPU pre-doctoral grant (AP2010-3264) funded by the Spanish Government. We are grateful to Ana Moreno, Mariano Barriendos and Gerardo Benito who kindly provide us data included in Figure 5a. We also want to thank constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers.

Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

Stable oxygen isotopes in irish oaks: potential for reconstructing local and regional climate

The long Irish oak tree-ring chronology, developed for archaeological dating and radiocarbon calibration, is the longest of any in northwest maritime Europe, spanning most of the Holocene (7,272 years). Unfortunately, the rings widths do not carry a strong climate signal and the record hasnever been satisfactorily applied for dendroclimatic reconstruction. This pilot study explores the potential for extracting a climate signal from Irish oaks by comparing the stable oxygen isotopes ratios from 10 oak tree cores (Quercus robur and Quercus petraea L.) collected across the Armagh region of NE Ireland with local and regional climatic and stable isotopic data. Statistically significant correlations between isotope ratios and the amount of summer precipitation (r = -0.44) point to the isotopic composition of summer rainfall as the dominant signal. Including the Armagh data into an extended regional oxygen isotope series did not reduce the correlation coefficient with regional precipitation (r = -0.68, p < 0.01). Correlations of this magnitude in dendro-hydroclimatology are typically restricted to trees growing at their ecological limits. This research suggests that there is considerable potential for including living trees and ancient timbers from Ireland into a regional composite to reconstruct the summer hydroclimate of Britain and Ireland.

Farmers' Resilience to Climate Change in the Welsh Marshes

Climate change will exacerbate challenges facing food security in the UK. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will further impact upon farm systems. At the heart of the impending challenges to UK agricultural production, farmers’ resilience will be tested to new limits. Research into farmers’ resilience to climate change in the UK is distinctly underdeveloped when compared to research in developing and other developed nations. This research gap is addressed through exploration of farmers’ resilience in the Welsh Marches, establishing the role of risk perceptions, local knowledge and adaptive capacity in farmers’ decision-making to limit climate shocks. Further contributions to agricultural geography are made through experimentation of a ‘cultural-behavioural approach’, seeking to revisit the behavioural approach in view of the cultural-turn. The Welsh Marches, situated on the English-Welsh border, has been selected as a focal point due to its agricultural diversity, and known experiences of extreme weather events. A phased mixed methodological approach is adopted. Phase one explores recorded and reported experiences of past extreme weather events in local meteorological records and local newspaper articles. Phase two consists of 115 survey-questionnaires, 15 in-depth semi-structured interviews, and a scenario based focus group with selected farmers from the Welsh Marches. This allows farmers’ resilience to climate change in the past, present and future to be explored. Original contributions to knowledge are made through demonstrating the value of focusing upon the culture of a specific farm community, applying a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The priority given to the weather in farmers’ decision-making is identified to be determined by individual relationships that farmers’ develop with the weather. Yet, a consensus of farmers’ observations has established recognition of considerable changes in the weather over the last 30 years, acknowledging more extremes and seasonal variations. In contrast, perceptions of future climate change are largely varied. Farmers are found to be disengaged with the communication of climate change science, as the global impacts portrayed are distant in time and place from probable impacts that may be experienced locally. Current communication of climate change information has been identified to alienate farmers from the local reality of probable future impacts. Adaptation options and responses to extreme weather and climate change are identified from measures found to be already implemented and considered for the future. A greater need to explore local knowledge and risk perception in relation to farmers’ understanding of future climate challenges is clear. There is a need to conduct comparable research in different farm communities across the UK. Progression into establishing the role of farmers’ resilience in responding effectively to future climate challenges has only just begun.