Studies on air pollution meteorology with special reference to Madras city

The main aim of the study is to give a clear picture of various meteorological factors affecting the dispersal of pollutants. One such important developing metropolis, namely Madras, is chosen for the present study. The study throws light into the occurrence of inversions, isothermals and lapse conditions and the vertical and horizontal extent of mixing of pollutants. The thesis also aims to study the wind climatology and atmospheric stability .The study gives a insight to the spatial distribution of sulphudioxide concentration using the Gaussian plume model, which accounts for various industrial sources. The researcher suggests optimum locations for industries and various steps to reduce air pollution.

Studies on the meteriological aspects of air pollution over Cochin

Pollutants that once enter into the earth’s atmosphere become part of the atmosphere and hence their dispersion, dilution, direction of transportation etc. are governed by the meteorological conditions. The thesis deals with the study of the atmospheric dispersion capacity, wind climatology, atmospheric stability, pollutant distribution by means of a model and the suggestions for a comprehensive planning for the industrially developing city, Cochin. The definition, sources, types and effects of air pollution have been dealt with briefly. The influence of various meteorological parameters such as vector wind, temperature and its vertical structure and atmospheric stability in relation to pollutant dispersal have been studied. The importance of inversions, mixing heights, ventilation coefficients were brought out. The spatial variation of mixing heights studies for the first time on a microscale region, serves to delineate the regions of good and poor dispersal capacity. A study of wind direction fluctuation, σθ and its relation to stability and mixing heights were shown to be much useful. It was shown that there is a necessity to look into the method of σθ computation. The development of Gausssian Plume Model along with the application for multiple sources was presented. The pollutant chosen was sulphur dioxide and industrial sources alone were considered. The percentage frequency of occurrence of inversions and isothermals are found to be low in all months during the year. The spatial variation of mixing heights revealed that a single mixing height cannot be taken as a representative for the whole city have low mixing heights and monsoonal months showed lowest mixing heights. The study of ventilation co-efficients showed values less than the required optimum value 6000m2/5. However, the low values may be due to the consideration of surface wind alone instead of the vertically averaged wind. Relatively more calm conditions and light winds during night and strong winds during day time were observed. During the most of the year westerlies during day time and northeasterlies during night time are the dominant winds. Unstable conditions with high values of σθ during day time and stable conditions with lower values of σθ during night time are the prominent features. Monsoonal months showed neutral stability for most of the time. A study σθ of and Pasquill Stability category has revealed the difficulty in giving a unique value of for each stability category. For the first time regression equations have been developed relating mixing heights and σθ. A closer examination of σθ revealed that half of the range of wind direction fluctuations is to be taken, instead of one by sixth, to compute σθ. The spatial distribution of SO2 showed a more or less uniform distribution with a slight intrusion towards south. Winter months showed low concentrations contrary to the expectations. The variations of the concentration is found to be influenced more by the mixing height and the stack height rather than wind speed. In the densely populated areas the concentration is more than the threshold limit value. However, the values reported appear to be high, because no depletion of the material is assumed through dry or wet depositions and also because of the inclusion of calm conditions with a very light wind speed. A reduction of emission during night time with a consequent rise during day time would bring down the levels of pollution. The probable locations for the new industries could be the extreme southeast parts because the concentration towards the north falls off very quickly resulting low concentrations. In such a case pollutant spread would be towards south and west, thus keeping the city interior relatively free from pollution. A more detailed examination of the pollutant spread by means of models that would take the dry and wet depositions may be necessary. Nevertheless, the present model serves to give the trend of the distribution of pollutant concentration with which one can suggest the optimum locations for the new industries

Studis on the climatological aspects of air pollution potential over trivandrum

The deteriorating air quality especially in urban environments is a cause of serious concern. In spite of being an effective sink, the atmosphere also has its own limitations in effectively dispersing the pollutants being dumped into it continuously by various sources, mainly industries. Many a time, it is not the higher emissions that cause alarming level of pollutants but the unfavourable atmospheric conditions under which the atmosphere is not able to disperse them effectively, leading to accumulation of pollutants near the ground. Hence, it is imperative to have an estimate of the atmospheric potential for dispersal of the substances emitted into it. This requires a knowledge of mixing height, ventilation coefficient, wind and stability of the region under study. Mere estimation of such pollution potential is not adequate, unless the probable distribution of concentration of pollutants is known. This can be obtained by means of mathematical models. The pollution potential coupled with the distribution of concentration provides a good basis for initiating steps to mitigate air pollution in any developing urban area. In this thesis, a fast developing industrial city, namely, Trivandrum is chosen for estimating the pollution potential and determining the spatial distribution of sulphur dioxide concentration. Each of the parameters required for pollution potential is discussed in detail separately. The thesis is divided into nine chapters.

Organic field-effect transistors and phototransistors based on amorphous materials

A comparison between the charge transport properties in low molecular amorphous thin films of spiro-linked compound and their corresponding parent compound has been demonstrated. The field-effect transistor method is used for extracting physical parameters such as field-effect mobility of charge carriers, ON/OFF ratios, and stability. In addition, phototransistors have been fabricated and demonstrated for the first time by using organic materials. In this case, asymmetrically spiro-linked compounds are used as active materials. The active materials used in this study can be divided into three classes, namely Spiro-linked compounds (symmetrically spiro-linked compounds), the corresponding parent-compounds, and photosensitive spiro-linked compounds (asymmetrically spiro-linked com-pounds). Some of symmetrically spiro-linked compounds used in this study were 2,2',7,7'-Tetrakis-(di-phenylamino)-9,9'-spirobifluorene (Spiro-TAD),2,2',7,7'-Tetrakis-(N,N'-di-p-methylphenylamino)-9,9'-spirobifluorene (Spiro-TTB), 2,2',7,7'-Tetra-(m-tolyl-phenylamino)-9,9'-spirobifluorene (Spiro-TPD), and 2,2Ž,7,7Ž-Tetra-(N-phenyl-1-naphtylamine)-9,9Ž-spirobifluorene (Spiro alpha-NPB). Related parent compounds of the symmetrically spiro-linked compound used in this study were N,N,N',N'-Tetraphenylbenzidine (TAD), N,N,N',N'-Tetrakis(4-methylphenyl)benzidine (TTB), N,N'-Bis(3-methylphenyl)-(1,1'-biphenyl)-4,4'-diamine (TPD), and N,N'-Diphenyl-N,N'-bis(1-naphthyl)-1,1'-biphenyl-4,4'-diamine (alpha-NPB). The photosensitive asymmetrically spiro-linked compounds used in this study were 2,7-bis-(N,N'-diphenylamino)-2',7'-bis(biphenyl-4-yl)-9,9'-spirobifluorene (Spiro-DPSP), and 2,7-bis-(N,N'-diphenylamino)-2',7'-bis(spirobifluorene-2-yl)-9,9'-spirobifluorene (Spiro-DPSP^2). It was found that the field-effect mobilities of charge carriers in thin films of symmetrically spiro-linked compounds and their corresponding parent compounds are in the same order of magnitude (~10^-5 cm^2/Vs). However, the thin films of the parent compounds were easily crystallized after the samples have been exposed in ambient atmosphere and at room temperature for three days. In contrast, the thin films and the transistor characteristics of symmetrically spiro-linked compound did not change significantly after the samples have been stored in ambient atmosphere and at room temperature for several months. Furthermore, temperature dependence of the mobility was analyzed in two models, namely the Arrhenius model and the Gaussian Disorder model. The Arrhenius model tends to give a high value of the prefactor mobility. However, it is difficult to distinguish whether the temperature behaviors of the material under consideration follows the Arrhenius model or the Gaussian Disorder model due to the narrow accessible range of the temperatures. For the first time, phototransistors have been fabricated and demonstrated by using organic materials. In this case, asymmetrically spiro-linked compounds are used as active materials. Intramolecular charge transfer between a bis(diphenylamino)biphenyl unit and a sexiphenyl unit leads to an increase in charge carrier density, providing the amplification effect. The operational responsivity of better than 1 A/W can be obtained for ultraviolet light at 370 nm, making the device interesting for sensor applications. This result offers a new potential application of organic thin film phototransistors as low-light level and low-cost visible blind ultraviolet photodetectors.

Hierarchical Mixtures of Experts and the EM Algorithm

We present a tree-structured architecture for supervised learning. The statistical model underlying the architecture is a hierarchical mixture model in which both the mixture coefficients and the mixture components are generalized linear models (GLIM's). Learning is treated as a maximum likelihood problem; in particular, we present an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for adjusting the parameters of the architecture. We also develop an on-line learning algorithm in which the parameters are updated incrementally. Comparative simulation results are presented in the robot dynamics domain.

Multivariate Density Estimation: An SVM Approach

We formulate density estimation as an inverse operator problem. We then use convergence results of empirical distribution functions to true distribution functions to develop an algorithm for multivariate density estimation. The algorithm is based upon a Support Vector Machine (SVM) approach to solving inverse operator problems. The algorithm is implemented and tested on simulated data from different distributions and different dimensionalities, gaussians and laplacians in $R^2$ and $R^{12}$. A comparison in performance is made with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our algorithm does as well or better than the GMMs for the simulations tested and has the added advantage of being automated with respect to parameters.

Nonlinear Device Noise Models:Thermodynamic Requirements

This paper proposes three tests to determine whether a given nonlinear device noise model is in agreement with accepted thermodynamic principles. These tests are applied to several models. One conclusion is that every Gaussian noise model for any nonlinear device predicts thermodynamically impossible circuit behavior: these models should be abandoned. But the nonlinear shot-noise model predicts thermodynamically acceptable behavior under a constraint derived here. Further, this constraint specifies the current noise amplitude at each operating point from knowledge of the device v - i curve alone. For the Gaussian and shot-noise models, this paper shows how the thermodynamic requirements can be reduced to concise mathematical tests involving no approximatio

Behavioral differences in violence: the case of intra-group differences of paramilitaries and guerrillas in Colombia

In most studies on civil wars, determinants of conflict have been hitherto explored assuming that actors involved were either unitary or stable. However, if this intra-group homogeneity assumption does not hold, empirical econometric estimates may be biased. We use Fixed Effects Finite Mixture Model (FE-FMM) approach to address this issue that provides a representation of heterogeneity when data originate from different latent classes and the affiliation is unknown. It allows to identify sub-populations within a population as well as the determinants of their behaviors. By combining various data sources for the period 2000-2005, we apply this methodology to the Colombian conflict. Our results highlight a behavioral heterogeneity in guerrilla’s armed groups and their distinct economic correlates. By contrast paramilitaries behave as a rather homogenous group.

Wind-tunnel modelling of dispersion from a scalar area source in urban-like roughness

A wind-tunnel study was conducted to investigate ventilation of scalars from urban-like geometries at neighbourhood scale by exploring two different geometries a uniform height roughness and a non-uniform height roughness, both with an equal plan and frontal density of λ p = λ f = 25%. In both configurations a sub-unit of the idealized urban surface was coated with a thin layer of naphthalene to represent area sources. The naphthalene sublimation method was used to measure directly total area-averaged transport of scalars out of the complex geometries. At the same time, naphthalene vapour concentrations controlled by the turbulent fluxes were detected using a fast Flame Ionisation Detection (FID) technique. This paper describes the novel use of a naphthalene coated surface as an area source in dispersion studies. Particular emphasis was also given to testing whether the concentration measurements were independent of Reynolds number. For low wind speeds, transfer from the naphthalene surface is determined by a combination of forced and natural convection. Compared with a propane point source release, a 25% higher free stream velocity was needed for the naphthalene area source to yield Reynolds-number-independent concentration fields. Ventilation transfer coefficients w T /U derived from the naphthalene sublimation method showed that, whilst there was enhanced vertical momentum exchange due to obstacle height variability, advection was reduced and dispersion from the source area was not enhanced. Thus, the height variability of a canopy is an important parameter when generalising urban dispersion. Fine resolution concentration measurements in the canopy showed the effect of height variability on dispersion at street scale. Rapid vertical transport in the wake of individual high-rise obstacles was found to generate elevated point-like sources. A Gaussian plume model was used to analyse differences in the downstream plumes. Intensified lateral and vertical plume spread and plume dilution with height was found for the non-uniform height roughness

A capture–recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 × 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture–recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture–recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Revisiting youden’s index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous score for classification of study participants into healthy or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might be confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead, an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden’s index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel–Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden’s index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream

Much of the atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is associated with variations in the eddy-driven component of the zonal flow. Here we present a simple method to specifically diagnose this component of the flow using the low-level wind field (925–700 hpa ). We focus on the North Atlantic winter season in the ERA-40 reanalysis. Diagnostics of the latitude and speed of the eddy-driven jet stream are compared with conventional diagnostics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) pattern. This shows that the NAO and the EA both describe combined changes in the latitude and speed of the jet stream. It is therefore necessary, but not always sufficient, to consider both the NAO and the EA in identifying changes in the jet stream. The jet stream analysis suggests that there are three preferred latitudinal positions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream in winter. This result is in very good agreement with the application of a statistical mixture model to the two-dimensional state space defined by the NAO and the EA. These results are consistent with several other studies which identify four European/Atlantic regimes, comprising three jet stream patterns plus European blocking events.

Revisiting Youden's index as a useful measure of the misclassification error in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies

The paper considers meta-analysis of diagnostic studies that use a continuous Score for classification of study participants into healthy, or diseased groups. Classification is often done on the basis of a threshold or cut-off value, which might vary between Studies. Consequently, conventional meta-analysis methodology focusing solely on separate analysis of sensitivity and specificity might he confounded by a potentially unknown variation of the cut-off Value. To cope with this phenomena it is suggested to use, instead an overall estimate of the misclassification error previously suggested and used as Youden's index and; furthermore, it is argued that this index is less prone to between-study variation of cut-off values. A simple Mantel-Haenszel estimator as a summary measure of the overall misclassification error is suggested, which adjusts for a potential study effect. The measure of the misclassification error based on Youden's index is advantageous in that it easily allows an extension to a likelihood approach, which is then able to cope with unobserved heterogeneity via a nonparametric mixture model. All methods are illustrated at hand of an example on a diagnostic meta-analysis on duplex doppler ultrasound, with angiography as the standard for stroke prevention.

A capture-recapture approach for screening using two diagnostic tests with availability of disease status for the test positives only

The article considers screening human populations with two screening tests. If any of the two tests is positive, then full evaluation of the disease status is undertaken; however, if both diagnostic tests are negative, then disease status remains unknown. This procedure leads to a data constellation in which, for each disease status, the 2 x 2 table associated with the two diagnostic tests used in screening has exactly one empty, unknown cell. To estimate the unobserved cell counts, previous approaches assume independence of the two diagnostic tests and use specific models, including the special mixture model of Walter or unconstrained capture-recapture estimates. Often, as is also demonstrated in this article by means of a simple test, the independence of the two screening tests is not supported by the data. Two new estimators are suggested that allow associations of the screening test, although the form of association must be assumed to be homogeneous over disease status. These estimators are modifications of the simple capture-recapture estimator and easy to construct. The estimators are investigated for several screening studies with fully evaluated disease status in which the superior behavior of the new estimators compared to the previous conventional ones can be shown. Finally, the performance of the new estimators is compared with maximum likelihood estimators, which are more difficult to obtain in these models. The results indicate the loss of efficiency as minor.

Modelling heterotachy in phylogenetic inference by reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

The rate at which a given site in a gene sequence alignment evolves over time may vary. This phenomenon-known as heterotachy-can bias or distort phylogenetic trees inferred from models of sequence evolution that assume rates of evolution are constant. Here, we describe a phylogenetic mixture model designed to accommodate heterotachy. The method sums the likelihood of the data at each site over more than one set of branch lengths on the same tree topology. A branch-length set that is best for one site may differ from the branch-length set that is best for some other site, thereby allowing different sites to have different rates of change throughout the tree. Because rate variation may not be present in all branches, we use a reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to identify those branches in which reliable amounts of heterotachy occur. We implement the method in combination with our 'pattern-heterogeneity' mixture model, applying it to simulated data and five published datasets. We find that complex evolutionary signals of heterotachy are routinely present over and above variation in the rate or pattern of evolution across sites, that the reversible-jump method requires far fewer parameters than conventional mixture models to describe it, and serves to identify the regions of the tree in which heterotachy is most pronounced. The reversible-jump procedure also removes the need for a posteriori tests of 'significance' such as the Akaike or Bayesian information criterion tests, or Bayes factors. Heterotachy has important consequences for the correct reconstruction of phylogenies as well as for tests of hypotheses that rely on accurate branch-length information. These include molecular clocks, analyses of tempo and mode of evolution, comparative studies and ancestral state reconstruction. The model is available from the authors' website, and can be used for the analysis of both nucleotide and morphological data.