Future changes in the Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity projected by a multidecadal simulation with a 16-km global atmospheric GCM

How tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northwestern Pacific might change in a future climate is assessed using multidecadal Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style and time-slice simulations with the ECMWF Integrated Forecast System (IFS) at 16-km and 125-km global resolution. Both models reproduce many aspects of the present-day TC climatology and variability well, although the 16-km IFS is far more skillful in simulating the full intensity distribution and genesis locations, including their changes in response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Both IFS models project a small change in TC frequency at the end of the twenty-first century related to distinct shifts in genesis locations. In the 16-km IFS, this shift is southward and is likely driven by the southeastward penetration of the monsoon trough/subtropical high circulation system and the southward shift in activity of the synoptic-scale tropical disturbances in response to the strengthening of deep convective activity over the central equatorial Pacific in a future climate. The 16-km IFS also projects about a 50% increase in the power dissipation index, mainly due to significant increases in the frequency of the more intense storms, which is comparable to the natural variability in the model. Based on composite analysis of large samples of supertyphoons, both the development rate and the peak intensities of these storms increase in a future climate, which is consistent with their tendency to develop more to the south, within an environment that is thermodynamically more favorable for faster development and higher intensities. Coherent changes in the vertical structure of supertyphoon composites show system-scale amplification of the primary and secondary circulations with signs of contraction, a deeper warm core, and an upward shift in the outflow layer and the frequency of the most intense updrafts. Considering the large differences in the projections of TC intensity change between the 16-km and 125-km IFS, this study further emphasizes the need for high-resolution modeling in assessing potential changes in TC activity.

Degree projects improving co-operation between the teacher education program and schools : - Swedish experiences

In 1977, when teacher education inSwedenwas incorporated into the university system, the main reason was to transform it into an academic tradition. Now, nearly 30 years later, there is still tension between the academic and the vocational tradition; they show up as different and separated elements in a program that is meant to prepare students for a career as a teacher and for a possible future career as a researcher in this field. This tension gives rise to a risk of allowing parallel “tracks” to develop and of isolating the degree thesis work from other courses. On the teacher-training program in which we are involved, close co-operation with partner-schools, where the practical part of the program takes place, has been established. Here, the students´ degree theses are an important factor in making this co-operation work on a concrete level. Accordingly, the purpose of the degree thesis is both to reflect problems in schools and contribute to better teaching in the individual school, but also to offer relevant educational subject matter to the students, which may be adapted as an element in the university’s research environments. From these points of view, the degree thesis is an important part of teacher education and rather more than just a single course. The degree thesis should be an element that gives the students an opportunity to show that they have reached central goals in the teacher education program. It should also be an integral part in the development of critical and scholarly thinking, deepening pedagogical and didactic knowledge and giving the students an opportunity to apply research methods. We will here use two minor case studies: one that compares teacher education programs in five Swedish universities and one minor study at one of those universities, in order to elaborate on the questions: - What purpose has a degree thesis and what role does it play in teacher education? - What criteria are relevant to assessing a degree thesis and what qualities do the degree theses have? - Is it possible to assess a degree thesis fairly and what happens to students who do not pass? - How could the degree thesis be used to improve the contact between the teacher education program and its partner schools in order to contribute to the development of the individual school?

Future cenario planning in Brazilian logistics and transportation sector

Nas últimas décadas o setor de logística passou por grandes transformações pelo mundo. Assim, a eficiência do sistema logístico é importante para o crescimento econômico, a diversificação, redução dos custos operacionais e da pobreza. Segundo o Banco Mundial, o Brasil tornou-se uma das maiores economias do mundo, mas os custos logísticos elevados colocam em risco esse crescimento. Estes custos são em grande parte o resultado de diferenças em infraestrutura de cada região, juntamente com os encargos do setor rodoviário, que corresponde por 60% do total do transporte de carga do país. Entretanto, a logística brasileira está às portas de uma nova revolução, em práticas de negócios e eficiência, e também na qualidade e disponibilidade da infraestrutura de transportes e comunicações, e novos projetos e práticas para superar a situação. O objetivo deste estudo não é analisar o presente e as atuais tendências de logística do Brasil e do setor de transporte, mas sim modelar possíveis cenários futuros para os próximos anos. Em outras palavras, este trabalho mostra diferentes possibilidades de como o setor de logística e transporte poderá ser no futuro. Para isso, este trabalho irá utilizar a metodologia de cenários prospectivos e entrevistas com especialistas relacionados da área.

Gender in international economic development projects: how is gender being institutionalized in the Inter-American Development Bank?

O Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento, o Banco Mundial, e outras organizações financiam iniciativas para acelerar o desenvolvimento da região da América Latina e Caribe. Antes do final da década de 80, vários projetos e políticas dessas instituições careciam de considerações ligadas à gênero e foram criticadas por essa falta (Flora, 1998). Em 1987, o BID publicou um documento sobre uma nova política operacional sobre mulheres e desenvolvimento e vem desde então buscando institucionalizar gênero e criar indicadores para medir os impactos relacionados à gênero em seus projetos. O objetivo dessa dissertação é explorar o tema de gênero no contexto do desenvolvimento internacional através de uma análise de como o Banco Interamericano de Desenvolvimento inclui gênero em suas operações. Após uma revisão literária sobre a importância de gênero e de bancos de desenvolvimento, essa dissertação irá analisar de que maneira gênero é incluído nas discussões dos projetos do Banco à nível institucional. A pesquisa será feita através de documentação disponível para o público geral, documentos internos e entrevistas em vídeo com pessoal do BID. Após uma análise dos dados coletados, recomendações para ações futuras serão dadas.

Relationship of Coca-Cola Brazil and the communities participant of the social projects: (im) possibilities

Five years ago, Coca-Cola Brasil launched a program named “Coletivo Project”, with the purpose to enjoy an opportunity of increase on the potential consumption power of the low-income pyramid population that lived on the “favelas”. At the same time, it had the objective to offer to them a social and financial impact, which is a trust on the future, the first job for the young adults’ participant of this program and an increase on their family source of revenues, through salaries. This was possible because through Coletivo Project, Coca-Cola identified the assets they have through its value chain, focusing on its competencies, such as retail, merchandising and logistics to apply them on courses to teach the young people of the communities and, as a result, form them to be able to find their new jobs. Internal indicators followed in a monthly basis by Coca-Cola demonstrated that the communities that had the presence of Coletivos, in comparison to those without Coletivos, had social and financial impacts. The social was the fact that the young formed started to have more confidence on their future and felt with a higher self-stem to apply for and obtain their first job. On the financial aspect, they were benefit through the increasing of their revenues and also their families and Coca-Cola had an increase on sales, when compared to a community without a Coletivo Project installed. This dissertation seeks to identify the current relationship between Coca-Cola and the communities, through the Coletivo Project classes performed on the NGOs located at this places, in order to identify opportunities for improvement the benefits and the impacts (financial and social) on the NGOs, communities and all stakeholders of this project. This dissertation examines this relationship, through presence interviews performed on four NGOs selected, and located on four of the twenty communities, that are participants of the Coletivo Project on Rio de Janeiro city. These interviews performed with the students, representatives and educators of these NGOs. The covered period of the interviews ranges from April 2014 to August 2014. This dissertation draws on first-hand qualitative empirical evidence gathered through extensive fieldwork. The main findings among possibilities for improvement by Coca-Cola are: • Implement new courses, beyond those existent at Coca-Cola (Retail, Logistics, etc.). • Increase the content of the employment module of Coletivo classes, focusing on improving educational, cultural, economic, political, social and professional life. • Increase the scale, through the quantity of positions on the Retail Coletivo classes. • Develop cultural and sports events with the communities. • Support the points of sales, participant of the practical classes of the Coletivo Retail, with refrigerators and furniture with the Coca-Cola logo. • Provide coffee breaks and meals during the Coletivo classes, using Coca-Cola beverages and partners for food items, developing the nutrition platform of the company and filling a need of the students. • Perform a research with all stakeholders related to this Project, including those students and mothers that are not participant of the Coletivo, in order to listen to them, understand their needs, and offer solutions to fulfill these gaps. and on the side of the • Perform partnerships with educational institutions to make viable other type of courses, more technical, but that have a relation with the core business of Coca-Cola Brasil, such as marketing. • Implement the Coca-Cola University, already existed at the Company. • Create courses or activities focused on the children. Regarding the impossibilities, the findings are: • Improve the basic sanitation of the communities. • Improve the safety on the communities. • Provide a home to those do not have. • Implement courses that have no relationship with Coca-Cola business and expertise, such as gastronomy. However, Coca-Cola can influence stakeholders on that. The results suggest to executives of Coca-Cola that a deep and a qualitative research on the communities of Brazil, in order to listen young people, educators, mothers, partners that offer jobs, from Coletivo and out of the project, is mandatory, to understand their needs, dreams, complains and offer valuable solutions to all.

Progettualità e interventi educativi nella dislessia. Il progetto ProDSA e le prospettive future di ricerca.

Il presente lavoro è strutturato in quattro parti analizzando e comparando le pubblicazioni del settore scientifico italiano, anglofono e tedesco di riferimento. Nel primo capitolo della tesi viene proposta una riflessione sulle parole che ruotano attorno al tema dei DSA e della disabilità. Nel secondo capitolo vengono presentati, a partire dalla letteratura scientifica di riferimento, gli indicatori di rischio che segnalano possibili disturbi specifici di apprendimento e le caratteristiche di apprendimento dei DSA mettendo in luce potenzialità e talenti spesso intrinseci. Nel terzo capitolo viene vagliata la normativa di riferimento, in particolare la recente Legge 170/2010 e le relative Linee Guida. Nel quarto capitolo, partendo dal tema della diffusione delle tecnologie dell’informazione e della comunicazione (da ora in poi TIC) nel mondo della scuola, sono ampiamente trattati i principali strumenti compensativi (sintesi vocale, libri digitali, mappe concettuali, Lavagna Interattiva Multimediale) e le misure dispensative adottabili. Nel quinto capitolo viene analizzato in tutte le sue parti il Piano Didattico Personalizzato (da ora in poi PDP) e viene proposto un possibile modello di PDP pubblicato sul sito dell'Ufficio per l’Ambito Territoriale di Bologna. Nel sesto capitolo della tesi viene presentato il Progetto Regionale ProDSA. Il Progetto, rivolto a studenti, con diagnosi di DSA, delle scuole secondarie di primo grado e del primo biennio delle secondarie di secondo grado dell’Emilia-Romagna, ha visto, grazie a un finanziamento della Regione, la consegna in comodato d'uso gratuito di tecnologie compensative agli alunni che hanno aderito. La sezione empirica del presente lavoro indaga l’uso reale che è stato fatto degli strumenti proposti in comodato d’uso e le motivazioni legate alla scelta di non utilizzarli in classe. Nel settimo capitolo vengono proposti strumenti progettati per rispondere concretamente alle criticità emerse dall'analisi dei dati e per sensibilizzare il mondo della scuola sulle caratteristiche dei DSA.

Who Will Provide Long-Term Care in the Future?

Projects that long-term-care delivery system will face substantial barriers in the future in finding staff to provide services even without an increase in demand due to public or private insurance. Shift of the economy toward skilled service jobs; Changing demography of the work force; Policy elements and cohorts effects that shape the demand for long-term care personnel in the year 2000 and beyond.

Virtual autopsy using imaging: bridging radiologic and forensic sciences. A review of the Virtopsy and similar projects

The transdisciplinary research project Virtopsy is dedicated to implementing modern imaging techniques into forensic medicine and pathology in order to augment current examination techniques or even to offer alternative methods. Our project relies on three pillars: three-dimensional (3D) surface scanning for the documentation of body surfaces, and both multislice computed tomography (MSCT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to visualise the internal body. Three-dimensional surface scanning has delivered remarkable results in the past in the 3D documentation of patterned injuries and of objects of forensic interest as well as whole crime scenes. Imaging of the interior of corpses is performed using MSCT and/or MRI. MRI, in addition, is also well suited to the examination of surviving victims of assault, especially choking, and helps visualise internal injuries not seen at external examination of the victim. Apart from the accuracy and three-dimensionality that conventional documentations lack, these techniques allow for the re-examination of the corpse and the crime scene even decades later, after burial of the corpse and liberation of the crime scene. We believe that this virtual, non-invasive or minimally invasive approach will improve forensic medicine in the near future.

Clinical research projects at a German medical faculty: follow-up from ethical approval to publication and citation by others

BACKGROUND: Only data of published study results are available to the scientific community for further use such as informing future research and synthesis of available evidence. If study results are reported selectively, reporting bias and distortion of summarised estimates of effect or harm of treatments can occur. The publication and citation of results of clinical research conducted in Germany was studied. METHODS: The protocols of clinical research projects submitted to the research ethics committee of the University of Freiburg (Germany) in 2000 were analysed. Published full articles in several databases were searched and investigators contacted. Data on study and publication characteristics were extracted from protocols and corresponding publications. RESULTS: 299 study protocols were included. The most frequent study design was randomised controlled trial (141; 47%), followed by uncontrolled studies (61; 20%), laboratory studies (30; 10%) and non-randomised studies (29; 10%). 182 (61%) were multicentre studies including 97 (53%) international collaborations. 152 of 299 (51%) had commercial (co-)funding and 46 (15%) non-commercial funding. 109 of the 225 completed protocols corresponded to at least one full publication (total 210 articles); the publication rate was 48%. 168 of 210 identified publications (80%) were cited in articles indexed in the ISI Web of Science. The median was 11 citations per publication (range 0-1151). CONCLUSIONS: Results of German clinical research projects conducted are largely underreported. Barriers to successful publication need to be identified and appropriate measures taken. Close monitoring of projects until publication and adequate support provided to investigators may help remedy the prevailing underreporting of research.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

A Team-Oriented Investigation of ERP Post-Implementation Integration Projects: How Cross-Functional Collaboration Influences ERP Benefits

The benefits companies achieve by implementing an ERP system vary considerably. Many companies need to adapt their ERP integration solution in the post-implementation stage. But after the completion of such a usually very complex integration project, benefits do not emerge by all means. A misfit between the organization and the IS, especially the aspect of cross-functional team collaboration, could explain these divergences. Using an initial theoretical framework, we conducted a single case study to explore the team-oriented perceptions in a post-implementation ERP integration project. To analyze the benefits and the influences in greater depth we disentangled the integration benefits into their particular parts (process, system and information quality). Our findings show that post-implementation ERP integration changes are not always perceived as beneficiary by the involved teams and that cross-functional collaboration has an important influence.

Pile-dwellings of the Neolithic and the Bronze Age in Switzerland. Long-term research and future tasks

Swiss lake-side settlements dating between 4300 and 800 BC were first recognized in the early 19th century and between 1854 and 1880 early research boomed due to the first scientific studies and the artificial lowering of lakes in Western Switzerland. In the 20th century underwater and wetland archaeology experienced an enormous surge not only because of large rescue excavations, due to extensive motorway construction projects but also due to the evolution of modern IT technology in the 1970s. For the first time huge quantities of ancient wooden structures could be dated by dendrochronology. This produced a quantum leap in the 150 years of pile-dwelling research. In 2011, the UNESCO World Heritage Committee recognized the outstanding universal value of these sites. This article presents an overview about Swiss pile-dwellings of the Neolithic and the Bronze Age and the results of two recent diploma works (case study Sutz-Lattrigen Haupstation innen and case study Seedorf Lobsigensee) as examples of research and cooperation between universities and government agencies for cultural heritage management.

Conservation Projects (ConPro) data base from The Nature Conservancy and others about the protected areas with analyzed Conservation Action Plans (CAP) before 2009 (Appendix 1) and after 2009 (Appendix 2)

It is widely recognized that climate change poses significant challenges to the conservation of biodiversity. The need of dealing with relatively rapid and uncertain environmental change calls for the enhancement of adaptive capacity of both biodiversity and conservation management systems. Under the hypothesis that most of the conventional biodiversity conservation tools do not sufficiently stimulate a dynamic protected area management, which takes rapid environmental change into account, we evaluated almost 900 of The Nature Conservancy's site-based conservation action plans. These were elaborated before a so-called climate clinic in 2009, an intensive revision of existing plans and a climate change training of the planning teams. We also compare these results with plans elaborated after the climate clinic. Before 2009, 20% of the CAPs employed the term "climate change" in their description of the site viability, and 45% identified key ecological attributes that are related to climate. 8% of the conservation strategies were directly or indirectly related to climate change adaptation. After 2009, a significantly higher percentage of plans took climate change into account. Our data show that many planning teams face difficulties in integrating climate change in their management and planning. However, technical guidance and concrete training can facilitate management teams learning processes. Arising new tools of adaptive conservation management that explicitly incorporate options for handling future scenarios, vulnerability analyses and risk management into the management process have the potential of further making protected area management more proactive and robust against change.

Scientific drilling projects in ancient lakes: Integrating geological and biological histories

Sedimentary sequences in ancient or long-lived lakes can reach several thousands of meters in thickness and often provide an unrivalled perspective of the lake's regional climatic, environmental, and biological history. Over the last few years, deep-drilling projects in ancient lakes became increasingly multi- and interdisciplinary, as, among others, seismological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, climatic, environmental, paleontological, and evolutionary information can be obtained from sediment cores. However, these multi- and interdisciplinary projects pose several challenges. The scientists involved typically approach problems from different scientific perspectives and backgrounds, and setting up the program requires clear communication and the alignment of interests. One of the most challenging tasks, besides the actual drilling operation, is to link diverse datasets with varying resolution, data quality, and age uncertainties to answer interdisciplinary questions synthetically and coherently. These problems are especially relevant when secondary data, i.e., datasets obtained independently of the drilling operation, are incorporated in analyses. Nonetheless, the inclusion of secondary information, such as isotopic data from fossils found in outcrops or genetic data from extant species, may help to achieve synthetic answers. Recent technological and methodological advances in paleolimnology are likely to increase the possibilities of integrating secondary information. Some of the new approaches have started to revolutionize scientific drilling in ancient lakes, but at the same time, they also add a new layer of complexity to the generation and analysis of sediment-core data. The enhanced opportunities presented by new scientific approaches to study the paleolimnological history of these lakes, therefore, come at the expense of higher logistic, communication, and analytical efforts. Here we review types of data that can be obtained in ancient lake drilling projects and the analytical approaches that can be applied to empirically and statistically link diverse datasets to create an integrative perspective on geological and biological data. In doing so, we highlight strengths and potential weaknesses of new methods and analyses, and provide recommendations for future interdisciplinary deep-drilling projects.

Evaluating the achievements and impacts of EC framework programme transport projects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present what kind of elements and evaluation methods should be included into a framework for evaluating the achievements and impacts of transport projects supported in EC Framework Programmes (FP). Further, the paper discusses the possibilities of such an evaluation framework in producing recommendations regarding future transport research and policy objectives as well as mutual learning for the basis of strategic long term planning. Methods The paper describes the two-dimensional evaluation methodology developed in the course of the FP7 METRONOME project. The dimensions are: (1) achievement of project objectives and targets in different levels and (2) research project impacts according to four impact groups. The methodology uses four complementary approaches in evaluation, namely evaluation matrices, coordinator questionnaires, lead user interviews and workshops. Results Based on the methodology testing, with a sample of FP5 and FP6 projects, the main results relating to the rationale, implementation and achievements of FP projects is presented. In general, achievement of objectives in both FPs was good. Strongest impacts were identified within the impact group of management and co-ordination. Also scientific and end-user impacts of the projects were adequate, but wider societal impacts quite modest. The paper concludes with a discussion both on the theoretical and practical implications of the proposed methodology and by presenting some relevant future research needs.