The expensive energy revolution in Germany. The implementation of the Energiewende is behind schedule. OSW Commentary No. 77, 2012-05-10

One year after the events of Fukushima the implementation of the new German energy strategy adopted in the summer of 2011 is being verified. Business circles, experts and publicists are sounding the alarm. The tempo at which the German economy is being rearranged in order that it uses renewable energy sources is so that it has turned out to be an extremely difficult and expensive task. The implementation of the key guidelines of the new strategy, such as the development of the transmission networks and the construction of new conventional power plants, is meeting increasing resistance in the form of economic and legal difficulties. The development of the green technologies sector is also posing problems. The solar energy industry, for example, is excessively subsidised, whereas the subsidies for the construction of maritime wind farms are too low. At present, only those guidelines of the strategy which are evaluated as economically feasible by investors or which receive adequate financial support from the state have a chance of being carried through. The strategy may also turn out to be unsuccessful due to the lack of a comprehensive coordination of its implementation and the financial burden its introduction entails for both the public and the economy. In the immediate future, the German government will make efforts not only to revise its internal regulations in order to enable the realisation of the energy transformation; it is also likely to undertake a number of measures at the EU forum which will facilitate this realisation. One should expect that the German government will actively support the financing of both the development of the energy networks in EU member states and the development of renewable energy sources in the energy sector.

Socio-technical transitions and policy change - Advocacy coalitions in Swiss energy policy

Policies and politics are an integral part of socio-technical transitions but have not received much attention in the transitions literature so far. Drawing on the advocacy coalition framework, our paper addresses this gap with a study on actors and coalitions in Swiss energy policy. Our results show that advocacy coalitions in Switzerland have largely remained stable despite the Fukushima shock. However, heterogeneity of beliefs has increased and in 2013, even a majority of actors expressed their support for the energy transition – an indication that major policy change might be ahead. It seems that in socio-technical transitions, changes in the policy issue and in the actor base also work toward policy change, next to changes in core beliefs. We make suggestions how the advocacy coalition framework can inform analysis and theory building in transition studies. We also present first ideas about the interplay of socio-technical systems and policy systems.

Rule extraction from technology IPOs in the US stock market

Machine learning techniques for prediction and rule extraction from artificial neural network methods are used. The hypothesis that market sentiment and IPO specific attributes are equally responsible for first-day IPO returns in the US stock market is tested. Machine learning methods used are Bayesian classifications, support vector machines, decision tree techniques, rule learners and artificial neural networks. The outcomes of the research are predictions and rules associated With first-day returns of technology IPOs. The hypothesis that first-day returns of technology IPOs are equally determined by IPO specific and market sentiment is rejected. Instead lower yielding IPOs are determined by IPO specific and market sentiment attributes, while higher yielding IPOs are largely dependent on IPO specific attributes.

The relationship between CA/C ratio and individual differences in dynamic accommodative responses while viewing stereoscopic images

The oculomotor synergy as expressed by the CA/C and AC/A ratios was investigated to examine its influence on our previous observation that whereas convergence responses to stereoscopic images are generally stable, some individuals exhibit significant accommodative overshoot. Using a modified video refraction unit while viewing a stereoscopic LCD, accommodative and convergence responses to balanced and unbalanced vergence and focal stimuli (BVFS and UBVFS) were measured. Accommodative overshoot of at least 0.3 D was found in 3 out of 8 subjects for UBVFS. The accommodative response differential (RD) was taken to be the difference between the initial response and the subsequent mean static steady-state response. Without overshoot, RD was quantified by finding the initial response component. A mean RD of 0.11 +/- 0.27 D was found for the 1.0 D step UBVFS condition. The mean RD for the BVFS was 0.00 +/- 0.17 D. There was a significant positive correlation between CA/C ratio and RD (r = +0.75, n = 8, p <0.05) for only UBVFS. We propose that inter-subject variation in RD is influenced by the CA/C ratio as follows: an initial convergence response, induced by disparity of the image, generates convergence-driven accommodation commensurate with the CA/C ratio; the associated transient defocus subsequently decays to a balanced position between defocus-induced and convergence-induced accommodations.

Enhanced diabetes care to patients of south Asian ethnic origin (the United Kingdom Asian Diabetes Study):a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background - Delivery of high-quality, evidence-based health care to deprived sectors of the community is a major goal for society. We investigated the effectiveness of a culturally sensitive, enhanced care package in UK general practices for improvement of cardiovascular risk factors in patients of south Asian origin with type 2 diabetes. Methods - In this cluster randomised controlled trial, 21 inner-city practices in the UK were assigned by simple randomisation to intervention (enhanced care including additional time with practice nurse and support from a link worker and diabetes-specialist nurse [nine practices; n=868]) or control (standard care [12 practices; n=618]) groups. All adult patients of south Asian origin with type 2 diabetes were eligible. Prescribing algorithms with clearly defined targets were provided for all practices. Primary outcomes were changes in blood pressure, total cholesterol, and glycaemic control (haemoglobin A1c) after 2 years. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN 38297969. Findings - We recorded significant differences between treatment groups in diastolic blood pressure (1·91 [95% CI -2·88 to -0·94] mm?Hg, p=0·0001) and mean arterial pressure (1·36 [-2·49 to -0·23] mm?Hg, p=0·0180), after adjustment for confounders and clustering. We noted no significant differences between groups for total cholesterol (0·03 [-0·04 to 0·11] mmol/L), systolic blood pressure (-0·33 [-2·41 to 1·75] mm?Hg), or HbA1c (-0·15% [-0·33 to 0·03]). Economic analysis suggests that the nurse-led intervention was not cost effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio £28?933 per QALY gained). Across the whole study population over the 2 years of the trial, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and cholesterol decreased significantly by 4·9 (95% CI 4·0–5·9) mm?Hg, 3·8 (3·2–4·4) mm?Hg, and 0·45 (0·40–0·51) mmol/L, respectively, and we recorded a small and non-significant increase for haemoglobin A1c (0·04% [-0·04 to 0·13]), p=0·290). Interpretation - We recorded additional, although small, benefits from our culturally tailored care package that were greater than the secular changes achieved in the UK in recent years. Stricter targets in general practice and further measures to motivate patients are needed to achieve best possible health-care outcomes in south Asian patients with diabetes. Funding - Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Servier Laboratories UK, Merck Sharp & Dohme/Schering-Plough, Takeda UK, Roche, Merck Pharma, Daiichi-Sankyo UK, Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Solvay Health Care, and Assurance Medical Society UK.

The Pico de Navas slump (Burgos, Spain): a large rocky landslide caused by underlying clayey sand fluidification

The Pico de Navas landslide was a large-magnitude rotational movement, affecting 50x106m3 of hard to soft rocks. The objectives of this study were: (1) to characterize the landslide in terms of geology, geomorphological features and geotechnical parameters; and (2) to obtain an adequate geomechanical model to comprehensively explain its rupture, considering topographic, hydro-geological and geomechanical conditions. The rupture surface crossed, from top to bottom: (a) more than 200 m of limestone and clay units of the Upper Cretaceous, affected by faults; and (b) the Albian unit of Utrillas facies composed of silty sand with clay (Kaolinite) of the Lower Cretaceous. This sand played an important role in the basal failure of the slide due to the influence of fine particles (silt and clay), which comprised on average more than 70% of the sand, and the high content presence of kaolinite (>40%) in some beds. Its geotechnical parameters are: unit weight (δ) = 19-23 KN/m3; friction angle (φ) = 13º-38º and cohesion (c) = 10-48 KN/m2. Its microstructure consists of accumulations of kaolinite crystals stuck to terrigenous grains, making clayey peds. We hypothesize that the presence of these aggregates was the internal cause of fluidification of this layer once wet. Besides the faulted structure of the massif, other conditioning factors of the movement were: the large load of the upper limestone layers; high water table levels; high water pore pressure; and the loss of strength due to wet conditions. The 3D simulation of the stability conditions concurs with our hypothesis. The landslide occurred in the Recent or Middle Holocene, certainly before at least 500 BC and possibly during a wet climate period. Today, it appears to be inactive. This study helps to understand the frequent slope instabilities all along the Iberian Range when facies Utrillas is present.

Japan´s energy future: Between a return to nuclear energy and a turn to renewables

After the triple disaster of 11 March 2011, Japan is at an energy crossroad. In the short and medium run it depends on fossil fuel imports to ensure its energy security, but the long term will be determined by the decisions taken at present. For Japan energy security is a national security challenge, as stated in its National Security Strategy. The article reviews the Japanese nuclear path, studies the factors shaping the Japanese electricity market and analyzes the current energy situation. Moreover, it also assesses the principles that have marked Japan’s energy policy and the two last Strategic Energy Plans -one prior to Fukushima and the other after it- before tackling the debate on the optimal future energy mix that Japan should adopt to meet its energy security trilemma, marked by its environmental commitment.

Failure Mechanisms and Local Scour at Coastal Structures induced by Tsunamis

On March 11 2011, an exceptionally large tsunami event was triggered by a massive earthquake offshore, the northeast coast of Japan, which affected coastal infrastructure such as seawalls, coastal dikes and breakwaters in the Tohoku region. Such infrastructure was built to protect against the Level 1 tsunamis that previously hit the region, but not for events as significant as the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, which was categorized as a Level 2 tsunami [Shibayama et al. 2013]. The failure mechanisms of concrete-armoured dikes, breakwaters and seawalls due to Level 2 tsunamis are still not fully understood by researchers and engineers. This paper investigates the failure modes and mechanisms of damaged coastal structures in Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures, following the authors' post-disaster field surveys carried out between 2011 and 2013. Six significant failure mechanisms were identified for the coastal dikes and seawalls affected by this tsunami: 1) Leeward toe scour failure, 2) Crown armour failure, 3) Leeward slope armour failure, 4) Seaward toe and armour failure, 5) Overturning failure, and 6) Parapet wall failure, in which leeward toe scour being recognized as the major failure mechanism in most surveyed locations. The authors also propose a simple practical mathematical model for predicting the scour depth at the leeward toe of the coastal dikes, by considering the effects of the tsunami hydrodynamics, the soil properties and the type of structure. The key advantage of this model is that it depends entirely on quantities that are measurable in the field. Furthermore this model was further refined by conducting a series of hydraulic model experiments aimed to understand the governing factors of the leeward toe scour failure. Finally, based on the results obtained, key recommendations are given for the design of resilient coastal defence structures that can survive a level 2 tsunami event.

Effective and ecological half-lives of 90Sr and 137Cs observed in wheat and rice in Japan

Published pre-Fukushima food monitoring data from 1963 to 1995 were used to study the long-term presence of 137Cs and 90Sr in rice and wheat. Effective half-lives (T eff) were calculated for rice (137Cs: 5.6 years; 90Sr: 6.7 years) and wheat (137Cs: 3.5 years; 90Sr: 6.2 years), respectively. In rice, 137Cs exhibits a longer T eff because putrefaction processes will lead to the formation of NH4 + ions that are efficient ion exchangers for mineral-adsorbed cesium ions, hence making it more readily available to the plant. Knowledge on the long-term behavior of radiocesium and radiostrontium will be important for Japanese food-safety campaigns after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

MULTI-UNIT ACCIDENT CONTRIBUTIONS TO U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION QUANTITATIVE HEALTH OBJECTIVES: A SAFETY GOAL POLICY ANALYSIS USING MODELS FROM STATE-OF-THE-ART REACTOR CONSEQUENCE ANALYSES

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission implemented a safety goal policy in response to the 1979 Three Mile Island accident. This policy addresses the question “How safe is safe enough?” by specifying quantitative health objectives (QHOs) for comparison with results from nuclear power plant (NPP) probabilistic risk analyses (PRAs) to determine whether proposed regulatory actions are justified based on potential safety benefit. Lessons learned from recent operating experience—including the 2011 Fukushima accident—indicate that accidents involving multiple units at a shared site can occur with non-negligible frequency. Yet risk contributions from such scenarios are excluded by policy from safety goal evaluations—even for the nearly 60% of U.S. NPP sites that include multiple units. This research develops and applies methods for estimating risk metrics for comparison with safety goal QHOs using models from state-of-the-art consequence analyses to evaluate the effect of including multi-unit accident risk contributions in safety goal evaluations.

Edoxaban versus enoxaparin–warfarin in patients undergoing cardioversion of atrial fibrillation (ENSURE-AF): a randomised, open-label, phase 3b trial

Background Edoxaban, an oral factor Xa inhibitor, is non-inferior for prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation and is associated with less bleeding than well controlled warfarin therapy. Few safety data about edoxaban in patients undergoing electrical cardioversion are available. Methods We did a multicentre, prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded-endpoint evaluation trial in 19 countries with 239 sites comparing edoxaban 60 mg per day with enoxaparin–warfarin in patients undergoing electrical cardioversion of non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The dose of edoxaban was reduced to 30 mg per day if one or more factors (creatinine clearance 15–50 mL/min, low bodyweight [≤60 kg], or concomitant use of P-glycoprotein inhibitors) were present. Block randomisation (block size four)—stratified by cardioversion approach (transoesophageal echocardiography [TEE] or not), anticoagulant experience, selected edoxaban dose, and region—was done through a voice-web system. The primary efficacy endpoint was a composite of stroke, systemic embolic event, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular mortality, analysed by intention to treat. The primary safety endpoint was major and clinically relevant non-major (CRNM) bleeding in patients who received at least one dose of study drug. Follow-up was 28 days on study drug after cardioversion plus 30 days to assess safety. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02072434. Findings Between March 25, 2014, and Oct 28, 2015, 2199 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive edoxaban (n=1095) or enoxaparin–warfarin (n=1104). The mean age was 64 years (SD 10·54) and mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 2·6 (SD 1·4). Mean time in therapeutic range on warfarin was 70·8% (SD 27·4). The primary efficacy endpoint occurred in five (<1%) patients in the edoxaban group versus 11 (1%) in the enoxaparin–warfarin group (odds ratio [OR] 0·46, 95% CI 0·12–1·43). The primary safety endpoint occurred in 16 (1%) of 1067 patients given edoxaban versus 11 (1%) of 1082 patients given enoxaparin–warfarin (OR 1·48, 95% CI 0·64–3·55). The results were independent of the TEE-guided strategy and anticoagulation status. Interpretation ENSURE-AF is the largest prospective randomised clinical trial of anticoagulation for cardioversion of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Rates of major and CRNM bleeding and thromboembolism were low in the two treatment groups. Funding Daiichi Sankyo provided financial support for the study. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd