Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Quels sont les TIC utilisés par les étudiants pour choisir leurs études supérieures ?Analyse des focus group organisés lors de la JANE 2015 sur l’image de l’ULB

info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Ultrafast laser-driven microlens to focus and energy-select mega-electron volt protons

We present a technique for simultaneous focusing and energy selection of high-current, mega-electron volt proton beams With the use of radial, transient electric fields (107 to 1010 volts per meter) triggered on the inner walls of a hollow microcylinder by an intense subpicosecond laser pulse. Because of the transient nature of the focusing fields, the proposed method allows selection of a desired range out of the spectrum of the polyenergetic proton beam. This technique addresses current drawbacks of laser-accelerated proton beams, such as their broad spectrum and divergence at the source.

A detailed study of multiply charged ion production within a high intensity laser focus

We have observed the variation in ion signal as a function of intensity within a focused laser spot. Using an aperture detector, the ion signals from narrow bands of the laser focus have been observed. By moving the laser focus along the direction of propagation, regions of different intensities are exposed to the detector. This has allowed detailed measurements to be made of ion signals as a function of laser intensity.

Using Focus Groups to Research Sensitive Issues: Insights from Group Interviews on Nursing in the Northern Ireland “Troubles”

In this article the authors discuss the usefulness of focus groups for researching sensitive issues using evidence from a study examining the experiences of nurses providing care in the context of the Northern Ireland Troubles. They conducted three group interviews with nurses during which they asked about the issues the nurses face(d) in providing nursing care amid enduring social division. Through a discursive analysis of within-group interaction, they demonstrate how participants employ a range of interpretive resources, the effect of which is to prioritize particular knowledge concerning the nature of nursing care. The identification of such patterned activity highlights the ethnographic value of focus groups to reveal social conventions guiding the production of accounts but also suggests that accounts cannot be divorced from the circumstances of their production. Consequently, the authors argue that focus groups should be considered most useful for illuminating locally sanctioned ways of talking about sensitive issues.

Phonological oddballs in the focus of attention elicit a normal P3b in dyslexic adults

Difficulties in phonological processing have been proposed to be the core symptom of developmental dyslexia. Phoneme awareness tasks have been shown to both index and predict individual reading ability. In a previous experiment, we observed that dyslexic adults fail to display a P3a modulation for phonological deviants within an alliterated word stream when concentrating primarily on a lexical decision task [Fosker and Thierry, 2004, Neurosci. Lett. 357, 171-174]. Here we recorded the P3b oddball response elicited by initial phonemes within streams of alliterated words and pseudo-words when participants focussed directly on detecting the oddball phonemes. Despite significant verbal screening test differences between dyslexic adults and controls, the error rates, reactions times, and main components (P2, N2, P3a, and P3b) were indistinguishable across groups. The only difference between groups was found in the NI range, where dyslexic participants failed to show the modulations induced by phonological pairings (/b/-/p/ versus /r/ /g/) in controls. In light of previous P3a differences, these results suggest an important role for attention allocation in the manifestation of phonological deficits in developmental dyslexia. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determining the Sun's influence on Lateglacial and Holocene climates: a focus on climate response to centennial-scale solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP

The influence of solar variability on the climate of the Lateglacial and Holocene periods has been the subject of increasing discussion during the last decade. In the Mid-Holocene, several studies have identified cold/wet events that occur at ca 2800 cal. BP and a link with a reduction in solar activity, inferred from the C-14 record, has been postulated. We present results from a multi-proxy study of peat humification, plant macrofossils and testate amoebae from a raised bog at Glen West, northwest Ireland, that indicate that dry bog surface conditions were experienced in the north of Ireland at the time of the solar anomaly starting at 2800 cal. BP. With the aid of C-14 wiggle-matching and tephrochronology, an abrupt shift to wetter conditions is dated to ca 2700 cal. BP, coinciding with a C-14 maximum but clearly post-dating the 2800 cal. BP event identified elsewhere in Europe. We explore the significance of this apparent lag in the Irish record, considering the possible role of the ocean in generating spatial and temporal complexities in the climate patterns of the North Atlantic region. We conclude that these complexities are likely to give rise to time-transgressive climate responses around the North Atlantic that will only be recognised by more critical chronological approaches.