Stress during the rebuilding phase influenced mental health following two Queensland flood disasters more than the event itself

It has long been known that disasters can have mental health consequences such as increased rates of PTSD, depression and anxiety. While some research has shown that secondary stressors during the aftermath of a disaster can influence psychological outcomes, this aspect of the disaster experience has not been widely studied. This paper reports on two studies that investigated which aspects of the experience of being flooded were most predictive of mental health outcomes. The first study was a qualitative study of adults whose homes had been inundated in the Mackay flood of 2008 (n=16). Thematic analysis of interviews conducted 18-20 months post-flood found that stressors during the flood aftermath such as difficulties and delays during the rebuilding process and a difficult experience with an insurance company were nominated as the most stressful aspect of the flood by the majority of participants. The second study surveyed Mackay flood survivors three and a half years post-flood, and Brisbane 2011 flood survivors 7-9 months post-flood (n=158). Findings indicated aftermath stress contributed to mental health outcomes over and above the contribution of perceived trauma, objective flood severity, prior mental health, self-efficacy and demographic factors. The implications of these results for the provision of community recovery services following natural disasters are discussed, including the need to provide effective targeting of support services throughout the lengthy rebuilding phase; a possible role for co-ordinating tradespeople; and training for insurance company staff aimed at minimising the incidence of insurance company staff inadvertently adding to disaster victims’ stress.

The disaster flood experience: Older people’s poetic voices of resilience

This paper explores the experiences of older community-dwelling Australians evacuated from their homes during the 2011 and 2013 Queensland floods, applying the novel creative methodology of poetic inquiry as an analysis and interpretative tool. As well as exploring how older adults managed during a natural disaster, the paper documents the process and potential of poetic inquiry in gerontological research. The first and second poems highlight the different social resources older people have to draw on in their lives, especially during a crisis. Poem 1 (“Nobody came to help me”) illustrates how one older resident felt all alone during the flood, whereas Poem 2 (“They came from everywhere”), Poem 3 ("The Girls") and Poem 5 (“Man in Blue Shirt”) shows how supported – from both family and the wider community - other older residents felt. Poem 4 (“I can’t swim”) highlights one participant’s fear as the water rises. To date, few studies have explicitly explored older adult’s disaster experience, with this paper the first to utilise a poetic lens. We argue that poetic presentation enhances understanding of older residents’ unique experiences during a disaster, and may better engage a wider audience of policy-makers, practitioners, the general community and older people themselves in discussion about, and reflection on, the impact and experience of disasters.

Identifying and forecasting the reverse salient in video game consoles: A performance gap ratio comparative analysis

This study uses the reverse salient methodology to contrast subsystems in video game consoles in order to discover, characterize, and forecast the most significant technology gap. We build on the current methodologies (Performance Gap and Time Gap) for measuring the magnitude of Reverse Salience, by showing the effectiveness of Performance Gap Ratio (PGR). The three subject subsystems in this analysis are the CPU Score, GPU core frequency, and video memory bandwidth. CPU Score is a metric developed for this project, which is the product of the core frequency, number of parallel cores, and instruction size. We measure the Performance Gap of each subsystem against concurrently available PC hardware on the market. Using PGR, we normalize the evolution of these technologies for comparative analysis. The results indicate that while CPU performance has historically been the Reverse Salient, video memory bandwidth has taken over as the quickest growing technology gap in the current generation. Finally, we create a technology forecasting model that shows how much the video RAM bandwidth gap will grow through 2019 should the current trend continue. This analysis can assist console developers in assigning resources to the next generation of platforms, which will ultimately result in longer hardware life cycles.

Assessment of flood-related mental illness in Bangladesh

This thesis assessed the mental health impacts of flooding and explored the key determinants of flood-related mental illness in the coastal region of Bangladesh. This study found significant increase in the prevalence of mental illness after flooding. Flood-exposure and socio-economic factors were significantly associated with post-flood mental illness. These findings may help the policy-makers to improve the early intervention and screening programs and may also have significant public health implications in the control and prevention of flood-related mental illness in Bangladesh.

Forecasting outcomes in tennis matches using within-match betting markets

Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

Human body stability in floodwaters: The 2011 flood in Brisbane CBD

The flooding of urbanised areas constitutes a hazard to the population and infrastructure. Floods through inundated urban environments have been studied recently and the potential impact of flowing waters on pedestrians is not well known. Herein the stability of individuals in floodwaters is reviewed based upon the re-analysis of detailed field measurements in an inundated section of the central business district of the City of Brisbane (Australia) during the 2011 flood. Detailed water elevation and velocity data were recorded. On-site observations showed some hydrodynamic instability linked to local topographic effects, in the form of a combination of fast turbulent fluctuations and (very) slow fluctuations of water level and velocity associated with surges. The flow conditions in Gardens Point Road was unsafe for individuals and a review of past guidelines suggests that many previous recommendations are over-optimistic and unsafe in real floodwaters.

Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Flood related loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows in southern Queensland, Australia

The loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows were assessed following the flood related catastrophic loss of seagrass meadows in February 1999 in the Sandy Strait, Queensland. Region wide recovery rates of intertidal meadows following the catastrophic disturbance were assessed by mapping seagrass abundance in the northern Great Sandy Strait region prior to and on 3 occasions after widespread loss of seagrass. Meadow-scale assessments of seagrass loss and recovery focussed on two existing Zostera capricorni monitoring meadows in the region. Mapping surveys showed that approximately 90% of intertidal seagrasses in the northern Great Sandy Strait disappeared after the February 1999 flooding of the Mary River. Full recovery of all seagrass meadows took 3 years. At the two study sites (Urangan and Wanggoolba Creek) the onset of Z. capricorni germination following the loss of seagrass occurred 14 months post-flood at Wanggoolba Creek, and at Urangan it took 20 months for germination to occur. By February 2001 (24 months post-flood) seagrass abundance at Wanggoolba Creek sites was comparable to pre-flood abundance levels and full recovery at Urangan sites was complete in August 2001 (31 months post-flood). Reduced water quality characterised by 2–3 fold increases in turbidity and nutrient concentrations during the 6 months following the flood was followed by a 95% loss of seagrass meadows in the region. Reductions in available light due to increased flood associated turbidity in February 1999 were the likely cause of seagrass loss in the Great Sandy Strait region, southern Queensland. Although seasonal cues influence the germination of Z. capricorni, the temporal variation in the onset of seed germination between sites suggests that germination following seagrass loss may be dependent on other factors (eg. physical and chemical characteristics of sediments and water). Elevated dissolved nitrogen concentrations during 1999 at Wanggoolba Creek suggest that this site received higher loads of sediments and nutrients from flood waters than Urangan. The germination of seeds at Wanggoolba Creek one year prior to Urangan coincides with relatively low suspended sediment concentrations in Wanggoolba Creek waters. The absence of organic rich sediments at Urangan for many months following their removal during the 1999 flood may also have inhibited seed germination. Data from population cohort analyses and population growth rates showed that rhizome weight and rhizome elongation rates increased over time, consistent with rapid growth during increases in temperature and light availability from May to October

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model for natural channels

A fuzzy dynamic flood routing model (FDFRM) for natural channels is presented, wherein the flood wave can be approximated to a monoclinal wave. This study is based on modification of an earlier published work by the same authors, where the nature of the wave was of gravity type. Momentum equation of the dynamic wave model is replaced by a fuzzy rule based model, while retaining the continuity equation in its complete form. Hence, the FDFRM gets rid of the assumptions associated with the momentum equation. Also, it overcomes the necessity of calculating friction slope (S-f) in flood routing and hence the associated uncertainties are eliminated. The fuzzy rule based model is developed on an equation for wave velocity, which is obtained in terms of discontinuities in the gradient of flow parameters. The channel reach is divided into a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. Training set required for development of the fuzzy rule based model for each sub-reach is obtained from discharge-area relationship at its mean section. For highly heterogeneous sub-reaches, optimized fuzzy rule based models are obtained by means of a neuro-fuzzy algorithm. For demonstration, the FDFRM is applied to flood routing problems in a fictitious channel with single uniform reach, in a fictitious channel with two uniform sub-reaches and also in a natural channel with a number of approximately uniform sub-reaches. It is observed that in cases of the fictitious channels, the FDFRM outputs match well with those of an implicit numerical model (INM), which solves the dynamic wave equations using an implicit numerical scheme. For the natural channel, the FDFRM Outputs are comparable to those of the HEC-RAS model.

Ways and Means for Disposal of Surplus Water in Storage Reservoirs and other Irrigation and Flood Protective Works

In the paper new way of classifying spillways have been suggested. The various types, merits and demerits or existing spillway devices have been discussed. The considerations governing the choice of a design of a spillway have been mention. A criteria for working out the economics of spillway design has been suggested. An efficient surplus sing device has next been described and compared with other devices. In conclusion it has been suggested that the most efficient and at the same time economical arrangement will be a combination of devices. In conclusion it has been suggested will be a combination of crest gate, volute siphons and high head gates. The appendix gives a list of devices used in dams in various parts of the world.

Various Methods of Designing Spillway Capacity of Dams and Estimating Flood Discharges

Abstract is not available.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Effect of wave parameters on flood wave subsidence

A detailed analy~is on the propagation of a sinusoidal flood wave in a wide prismatic open channel b.as hen made by numc? ii.~ll~integrating We govemins nondimenional equations of unsteady flow in an open chamei. EmpE:dsis has been laid on the effect of wave parmefen on th propagation of 6.8 sinusoidal wave. Results show that the amount of subsidence is more in the case of small wave anplltude and wave duration cases. Further, wave duration has been noticed to have a relatively Vier influence on subsidence than wave amplitude. The speed at which the peak of the wave moves is observed to be a function of only the wave amplitude.

Better Macadamia crop forecasting

Better Macadamia crop forecasting.

Better Macadamia Crop Forecasting - Part 2

The continually expanding macadamia industry needs an accurate crop forecasting system to allow it to develop effective crop handling and marketing strategies, particularly when the industry faces recurring cycles of unsustainably high and low commodity prices. This project aims to provide the AMS with a robust, reliable predictive model of national crop volume within 10% of the actual crop by 1 April each year by factoring known seasonal, environmental, cultural, climatic, management and biological constraints, together with the existing AMS database which includes data on tree numbers, tree age, variety, location and previous season's production.