Macroeconomic and Financial Crisis Management in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean: Diagnosis and Prospects. CEPS Paperbacks. December 2013

The global financial crisis, which started in the summer of 2007 and deepened in the aftermath of the Lehman failure in September 2008, has led to a virtual collapse in economic activity and increased financial volatility worldwide. For the developing countries, the main channel of transmission has been a drop in external transactions, such as trade, financial and capital flows, and remittances. The emerging economies in the southern and eastern Mediterranean have also faced declining economic activity, although there seems to be considerable variation in the relative magnitude and timing. Most of these economies have shown a delayed but more lasting response to the crisis, driven mostly by their close trade and investment ties with the EU and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This book explores the fiscal, monetary and financial effects of the crisis in the region and provides an in-depth analysis of the fiscal, monetary and banking policies in the post-crisis era, the viability of their exit strategies and the future of reforms in the region. These analyses not only provide a comprehensive comparison between the countries but also provide a solid basis for assessing future economic and financial developments and reforms in the region.

Fault diagnosis of an automotive suspension system

With the development of the embedded application and driving assistance systems, it becomes relevant to develop parallel mechanisms in order to check and to diagnose these new systems. In this thesis we focus our research on one of this type of parallel mechanisms and analytical redundancy for fault diagnosis of an automotive suspension system. We have considered a quarter model car passive suspension model and used a parameter estimation, ARX model, method to detect the fault happening in the damper and spring of system. Moreover, afterward we have deployed a neural network classifier to isolate the faults and identifies where the fault is happening. Then in this regard, the safety measurements and redundancies can take into the effect to prevent failure in the system. It is shown that The ARX estimator could quickly detect the fault online using the vertical acceleration and displacement sensor data which are common sensors in nowadays vehicles. Hence, the clear divergence is the ARX response make it easy to deploy a threshold to give alarm to the intelligent system of vehicle and the neural classifier can quickly show the place of fault occurrence.

Are diagnosis specific outcome indicators based on administrative data useful in assessing quality of hospital care?

Background: Hospital performance reports based on administrative data should distinguish differences in quality of care between hospitals from case mix related variation and random error effects. A study was undertaken to determine which of 12 diagnosis-outcome indicators measured across all hospitals in one state had significant risk adjusted systematic ( or special cause) variation (SV) suggesting differences in quality of care. For those that did, we determined whether SV persists within hospital peer groups, whether indicator results correlate at the individual hospital level, and how many adverse outcomes would be avoided if all hospitals achieved indicator values equal to the best performing 20% of hospitals. Methods: All patients admitted during a 12 month period to 180 acute care hospitals in Queensland, Australia with heart failure (n = 5745), acute myocardial infarction ( AMI) ( n = 3427), or stroke ( n = 2955) were entered into the study. Outcomes comprised in-hospital deaths, long hospital stays, and 30 day readmissions. Regression models produced standardised, risk adjusted diagnosis specific outcome event ratios for each hospital. Systematic and random variation in ratio distributions for each indicator were then apportioned using hierarchical statistical models. Results: Only five of 12 (42%) diagnosis-outcome indicators showed significant SV across all hospitals ( long stays and same diagnosis readmissions for heart failure; in-hospital deaths and same diagnosis readmissions for AMI; and in-hospital deaths for stroke). Significant SV was only seen for two indicators within hospital peer groups ( same diagnosis readmissions for heart failure in tertiary hospitals and inhospital mortality for AMI in community hospitals). Only two pairs of indicators showed significant correlation. If all hospitals emulated the best performers, at least 20% of AMI and stroke deaths, heart failure long stays, and heart failure and AMI readmissions could be avoided. Conclusions: Diagnosis-outcome indicators based on administrative data require validation as markers of significant risk adjusted SV. Validated indicators allow quantification of realisable outcome benefits if all hospitals achieved best performer levels. The overall level of quality of care within single institutions cannot be inferred from the results of one or a few indicators.

Challenges in the diagnosis of Marfan syndrome

Marfan syndrome (MFS) is a multisystem disorder of connective tissue that is inherited in an autosomal dominant fashion, and results from mutations in the FBN1 gene on chromosome 15. Diagnosis is challenging as it requires definition of diverse clinical features and input from a variety of specialists. Genetic testing of FBN1 is time consuming, expensive and complex, and may not solve the diagnostic dilemma. Failure to make a diagnosis or making an inappropriate diagnosis of MFS has social, lifestyle and medical consequences for the individual as well as the family.

Guidelines for the prevention, detection and management of people with chronic heart failure in Australia 2006

* Chronic heart failure (CHF) is found in 1.5%–2.0% of Australians. Considered rare in people aged less than 45 years, its prevalence increases to over 10% in people aged ≥ 65 years. * CHF is one of the most common reasons for hospital admission and general practitioner consultation in the elderly (≥ 70 years). * Common causes of CHF are ischaemic heart disease (present in > 50% of new cases), hypertension (about two-thirds of cases) and idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (around 5%–10% of cases). * Diagnosis is based on clinical features, chest x-ray and objective measurement of ventricular function (eg, echocardiography). Plasma levels of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) may have a role in diagnosis, primarily as a test for exclusion. Diagnosis may be strengthened by a beneficial clinical response to treatment(s) directed towards amelioration of symptoms. * Management involves prevention, early detection, amelioration of disease progression, relief of symptoms, minimisation of exacerbations, and prolongation of survival.

Recent changes in heart failure hospitalisations in Australia

Aim: To assess trends in admissions of patients with heart failure (HF) to all hospitals in Australia between 1996-1997 and 2003-2004. Methods and results: We carried out a retrospective analysis of the official population-based National Hospital Morbidity Data in Australia. Although the absolute number of separations with a principal diagnosis of HF remained stable, the age- and sex-standardized separation rate for HF recorded as principal diagnosis decreased from 2.0 per 1000 population in 1996-1997 to 1.6 per 1000 population in 2003-2004. The corresponding values for HF recorded in any diagnostic position were 7.7 and 4.7 per 1000 population. Men had higher in-hospital mortality than women (8.9% versus 8.1%,p < 0.001) and also a larger decrease in this measure over the study period (21.9% versus 14.4%). While the geometric mean length of stay for HF as principal diagnosis fell from 5.4 days in 1996-1997 to 4.9 days in 2003-2004, the proportion of bed-days related to such diagnoses relative to total bed days attributed to circulatory diseases increased from 12.8% to 13.7% (p < 0.001). Conclusion: There were no increase in number of admissions involving HF and standardized rates of hospital separations with HF fell in Australia between 1996 and 2004. The explanation for the observed declines in in-hospital case fatality and the separation rates should be sought in whole-of-community studies. (c) 2006 European Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study of potential serum markers for a diagnosis of gram-positive and gram-negative bacterial sepsis

Sepsis continues to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality as it can readily lead tosevere sepsis, septic shock, multiple organ failure and death. The onset can be rapid and difficult to define clinically. Despite the numerous candidate markers proposed in the literature, to date a serum marker for sepsis has not been found. The aim of this study was to assay the serum of clinically diagnosed patients with eithera Gram-negative or Gram- positive bacterial sepsis for elevated levels of nine potentialmarkers of sepsis, using commercially produced enzyme linked immunosorbent assays(ELISA). The purpose was to find a test marker for sepsis that would be helpful toclinicians in cases of uncertain sepsis and consequently expose false positive BC'scaused by skin or environmental contaminants. Nine test markers were assayed including IL-6, IL-I 0, ILI2, TNF-α, lipopolysaccharide binding protein, procalcitonin, sE-selectin, sICAM -1 and a potential differential marker for Gram-positive sepsis- anti-lipid S antibody. A total of 445 patients were enrolled into this study from the Queen Elizabeth Hospital and Selly Oak Hospital (Birmingham). The results showed that all the markers were elevated in patients with sepsis and that patients with a Gram-negative sepsis consistently produced higher median/range serum levels than those with a Gram-positive sepsis. No single marker was able to identify all the septic patients. Combining two markers caused the sensitivities and specificities for a diagnosis of sepsis to increase to within a 90% to 100% range. By a process of elimination the markers that survived into the last phase were IL-6 with sICAM -1, and anti-lipid S IgG assays Defining cut-off levels for a diagnosis of sepsis became problematic and a semi-blind trial was devised to test the markers in the absence of both clinical details and positive blood cultures. Patients with pyrexia of unknown origin and negative BC were included in this phase (4). The results showed that IL-6 with sICAM-l are authentic markers of sepsis. There was 82% agreement between the test marker diagnosis and the clinical diagnosis for sepsis in patients with a Gram-positive BC and 78% agreement in cases of Gram-negative Be. In the PUO group the test markers identified 12 cases of sepsis and the clinical diagnosis 15. The markers were shown to differentiate between early sepsis and sepsis, inflammatory responses and infection. Anti-lipid S with IL-6 proved be a sensitive marker for Gram-positive infections/sepsis.

Fault diagnosis scheme for open-circuit faults in switched reluctance motor drives using fast Fourier transform algorithm with bus current detection

Reliability of power converters is of crucial importance in switched reluctance motor drives used for safety-critical applications. Open-circuit faults in power converters will cause the motor to run in unbalanced states, and if left untreated, they will lead to damage to the motor and power modules, and even cause a catastrophic failure of the whole drive system. This study is focused on using a single current sensor to detect open-circuit faults accurately. An asymmetrical half-bridge converter is considered in this study and the faults of single-phase open and two-phase open are analysed. Three different bus positions are defined. On the basis of a fast Fourier transform algorithm with Blackman window interpolation, the bus current spectrums before and after open-circuit faults are analysed in details. Their fault characteristics are extracted accurately by the normalisations of the phase fundamental frequency component and double phase fundamental frequency component, and the fault characteristics of the three bus detection schemes are also compared. The open-circuit faults can be located by finding the relationship between the bus current and rotor position. The effectiveness of the proposed diagnosis method is validated by the simulation results and experimental tests.

Industrial fault detection and diagnosis using Bayesian belief network

Rapid development in industry have contributed to more complex systems that are prone to failure. In applications where the presence of faults may lead to premature failure, fault detection and diagnostics tools are often implemented. The goal of this research is to improve the diagnostic ability of existing FDD methods. Kernel Principal Component Analysis has good fault detection capability, however it can only detect the fault and identify few variables that have contribution on occurrence of fault and thus not precise in diagnosing. Hence, KPCA was used to detect abnormal events and the most contributed variables were taken out for more analysis in diagnosis phase. The diagnosis phase was done in both qualitative and quantitative manner. In qualitative mode, a networked-base causality analysis method was developed to show the causal effect between the most contributing variables in occurrence of the fault. In order to have more quantitative diagnosis, a Bayesian network was constructed to analyze the problem in probabilistic perspective.

Heart failure in sub-Saharan Africa: review of the aetiology of heart failure and the role of point-of-care biomarker diagnostics

Within Africa, the burden of heart failure is significant. This arises from the increase in cardiovascular disease and associated risk factors such as hypertension and diabetes, as well as causes of heart failure which are particular to sub-Saharan Africa, such as endomyocardial fibrosis. The lack of access to echocardiography and other imaging modalities, from a cost and technical perspective, combined with the predominantly rural nature of many countries with poor transport links, means that the vast majority of people never obtain an appropriate diagnosis. Similarly, research has been limited on the causes and treatment of heart failure in Africa and in particular endemic causes such as EMF and rheumatic heart disease. This review outlines the burden of heart failure in Africa and highlights the opportunity to expand diagnosis through the use of biomarkers, in particular natriuretic peptides. This builds on the success of point-of-care testing in human immunodeficiency virus and tuberculosis which have been extensively deployed in community settings in Africa.

Utility of sarcoma-specific fusion gene analysis in paraffin-embedded material for routine diagnosis at a specialist centre.

AIMS: Diagnosis of soft tissue sarcomas can be difficult. It can be aided by detection of specific genetic aberrations in many cases. This study assessed the utility of a molecular genetics/cytogenetics service as part of the routine diagnostic service at the Royal Marsden Hospital. METHODS: A retrospective audit was performed over a 15-month period to evaluate the diagnostic usefulness for soft tissue sarcomas with translocations of fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) and reverse-transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) in paraffin-embedded (PE) material. Results were compared with histology, and evaluated. RESULTS: Molecular investigations were performed on PE material in 158 samples (total 194 RT-PCR and 174 FISH tests), of which 85 were referral cases. Synovial sarcoma, Ewing sarcoma and low-grade fibromyxoid sarcoma were the most commonly tested tumours. Myxoid liposarcoma showed the best histological and molecular concordance, and alveolar rhabdomyosarcoma showed the best agreement between methods. FISH had a higher sensitivity for detecting tumours (73%, compared with 59% for RT-PCR) with a better success rate than RT-PCR, although the latter was specific in identifying the partner gene for each fusion. In particular, referral blocks in which methods of tissue fixation and processing were not certain resulted in higher RT-PCR failure rates. CONCLUSIONS: FISH and RT-PCR on PE tissue are practical and effective ancillary tools in the diagnosis of soft tissue sarcomas. They are useful in confirming doubtful histological diagnoses and excluding malignant diagnoses. PCR is less sensitive than FISH, and the use of both techniques is optimal for maximising the detection rate of translocation-positive sarcomas.

Surgical Options After Fontan Failure

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this European multicenter study was to report surgical outcomes of Fontan takedown, Fontan conversion and heart transplantation (HTX) for failing Fontan patients in terms of all-cause mortality and (re-)HTX. METHODS: A retrospective international study was conducted by the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association among 22 member centres. Outcome of surgery to address failing Fontan was collected in 225 patients among which were patients with Fontan takedown (n=38; 17%), Fontan conversion (n=137; 61%) or HTX (n=50; 22%). RESULTS: The most prevalent indication for failing Fontan surgery was arrhythmia (43.6%), but indications differed across the surgical groups (p<0.001). Fontan takedown was mostly performed in the early postoperative phase after Fontan completion, while Fontan conversion and HTX were mainly treatment options for late failure. Early (30 days) mortality was high for Fontan takedown (ie, 26%). Median follow-up was 5.9 years (range 0-23.7 years). The combined end point mortality/HTX was reached in 44.7% of the Fontan takedown patients, in 26.3% of the Fontan conversion patients and in 34.0% of the HTX patients, respectively (log rank p=0.08). Survival analysis showed no difference between Fontan conversion and HTX (p=0.13), but their ventricular function differed significantly. In patients who underwent Fontan conversion or HTX ventricular systolic dysfunction appeared to be the strongest predictor of mortality or (re-)HTX. Patients with valveless atriopulmonary connection (APC) take more advantage of Fontan conversion than patients with a valve-containing APC (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Takedown surgery for failing Fontan is mostly performed in the early postoperative phase, with a high risk of mortality. There is no difference in survival after Fontan conversion or HTX.

Heart failure in young adults

Heart failure (HF) is a major health concern affecting 15 million people in Europe and around 900 000 people in the U.K. HF predominantly affects the elderly, with the mean age of patients with a diagnosis of HF between 70 and 80 years. Most previous HF studies have accordingly focused on older patients. Although HF is less common in younger adults (<65 years), 15% to 20% of patients hospitalised with HF are younger than 60 years of age. Very few studies have described the characteristics of younger adults with HF and its outcome. The aims of this thesis are to describe the clinical characteristics of younger adults with HF, explore the epidemiology of HF in younger adults and determine their short- and long-term outcomes. This was made possible by access multiple databases consisting of large patient cohorts with HF. The first chapter is a systematic literature review of younger adults with HF. Gaps in the current literature were identified and the thesis focused on some of these. The CHARM study allows detail characterisations of younger adults with HF. It recorded characteristics of patients with HF, including symptoms and signs of HF, electrocardiographic changes, chest radiographic findings, and also left ventricular ejection fraction. HF hospitalisations and its precipitating factors were also recorded systematically. Younger adults were more likely to have a third heart sound and hepatomegaly, but less likely to have pulmonary crackles and peripheral oedema. Similarly, radiological findings in younger adults were less likely to show interstitial pulmonary oedema or pleural effusion. Interestingly, younger adults aged <40 years not only have similar HF hospitalisation rate to older patients, however during their presentation with decompensated HF, they were less likely to have clinical pulmonary oedema and radiological signs of HF. Physicians managing younger adults with HF need to be aware of this. Younger adults were also less compliant with medications and lifestyle restriction resulting in hospitalisation with decompensated HF. Fortunately, despite these challenges, mortality rates in younger adults with HF were lower compared to older patients. To further substantiate the findings from the CHARM study, the MAGGIC study, a meta-analysis consists of over 40 000 patients with HF from large observational studies and randomised controlled trials, was examined. In both databases, the commonest aetiology of HF in younger adults was dilated cardiomyopathy. The ejection fraction was the lowest in younger adults. Similar to the CHARM study, mortality rates in younger adults were lower compared to older patients. However, in the MAGGIC study, by stratifying mortality into patients with preserved ejection fraction and with reduced ejection fraction, younger patients with preserved ejection fraction have a much lower mortality rate compared to patients with reduced ejection fraction. Findings from clinical trials are not always reflective of the real life clinical practice. The U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a large and well-validated primary care database with 654 practices contributing information into the database representing approximated 8% of the U.K. population, is a rich dataset offering a unique opportunity to examine the characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of younger adults with HF in the community. In contrast to the CHARM and MAGGIC studies, younger adults aged <40 years were stratified into 20-29 and 30-39 years in the CPRD analysis. This is possible due to the larger number of younger adults with HF. Further stratifying the younger age groups demonstrated heterogeneity among younger adults with HF. In contrast to previous data showing younger adults have lower co-morbidities, the proportions of depression, chronic kidney disease, asthma, and any connective tissue disease were high among patients aged 20-29 years in the analysis from the CPRD. Surprisingly, the treatment rates for angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, and aldosterone antagonist were the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With the exception of patients aged ≥80 years, treatment rate with beta-blocker was also the lowest in patients aged 20-29 years. With over two decades of follow up, long-term mortality rates in younger adults with HF can be determined. The mortality rates continued to decline from 1988 to 2011. Physicians managing younger adults with HF can now use this contemporary data to provide prognostic information to patients and their family. A hospital administrative database is the logical next platform to explore younger adults with HF. The Alberta Ministry of Health database links an outpatient database to a hospitalisation database providing ample data to examine the relationship between outpatient clinic visits and hospital admissions in younger adults with HF. Following a diagnosis of HF in the outpatient setting, younger adults were admitted to the hospital with decompensated HF much sooner than older patients. Younger adults also presented to emergency department more frequently following their first hospitalisation for HF. In conclusion, this thesis presented the characteristics and outcomes of younger adults with HF, and helped to extend our current understanding on this important topic. I hope the data presented here will benefit not only physicians looking after younger adults with HF, but also patients and their family.

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis and determination of outcome of pulmonary hypertension

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a rare but serious condition that causes progressive right ventricular (RV) failure and death. PH may be idiopathic, associated with underlying connective-tissue disease or hypoxic lung disease, and is also increasingly being observed in the setting of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). The management of PH has been revolutionised by the recent development of new disease-targeted therapies which are beneficial in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), but can be potentially harmful in PH due to left heart disease, so accurate diagnosis and classification of patients is essential. These PAH therapies improve exercise capacity and pulmonary haemodynamics, but their overall effect on the right ventricle remains unclear. Current practice in the UK is to assess treatment response with 6-minute walk test and NYHA functional class, neither of which truly reflects RV function. Cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging has been established as the gold standard for the evaluation of right ventricular structure and function, but it also allows a non-invasive and accurate study of the left heart. The aims of this thesis were to investigate the use of CMR in the diagnosis of PH, in the assessment of treatment response, and in predicting survival in idiopathic and connective-tissue disease associated PAH. In Chapter 3, a left atrial volume (LAV) threshold of 43 ml/m2 measured with CMR was able to distinguish idiopathic PAH from PH due to HFpEF (sensitivity 97%, specificity 100%). In Chapter 4, disease-targeted PAH therapy resulted in significant improvements in RV and left ventricular ejection fraction (p<0.001 and p=0.0007, respectively), RV stroke volume index (p<0.0001), and left ventricular end-diastolic volume index (p=0.0015). These corresponded to observed improvements in functional class and exercise capacity, although correlation coefficients between Δ 6MWD and Δ RVEF or Δ LVEDV were low. Finally, in Chapter 5, one-year and three-year survival was worse in CTD-PAH (75% and 53%) than in IPAH (83% and 74%), despite similar baseline clinical characteristics, lung function, pulmonary haemodynamics and treatment. Baseline right ventricular stroke volume index was an independent predictor of survival in both conditions. The presence of LV systolic dysfunction was of prognostic significance in CTD-PAH but not IPAH, and a higher LAV was observed in CTD-PAH suggesting a potential contribution from LV diastolic dysfunction in this group.